8:20 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: 49ers -3.0, Total: 52.5
The penultimate Sunday of the regular season comes to a close with a seismic showdown in Santa Clara, as the Chicago Bears and surging San Francisco 49ers cross paths with a bid for the number one overall seed in the NFC on the line tonight from Levi’s Stadium. Oh, what a difference a year has made for the Bears (11-4, 1st in NFC North), who have a potential track to secure homefield in the NFC Playoffs; if they manage to win out and the Seahawks fall in their final two outings, then Chicago will enter the postseason sitting atop the conference for the first time since 2006. Of course, this franchise was in a very different position last season, in which they wasted an inspiring 4-2 start by losing TEN consecutive contests, prompting a reset by management. (General Manager) Ryan Poles avoided the chopping block due in large part to assembling a talented roster that was just waiting for the right coach to unlock their potential, which is what he found in the form of (Head Coach) Ben Johnson. By now, we all know the story with Johnson, who emerged as the NFL’s latest offensive mastermind during his tenure with Detroit, rebuking advances from suitors for years before finally choosing the Bears, which has been nothing short of a coup for an organization that has been left roaming the wilderness for quite some time. So, what has he done to turn things around, you ask? Well, there are very few coaches who are as good at designing an offense and calling plays than the 39-year-old, who has evolved this unit into one that resembles the early days of his previous employers. Chicago ranks tenth in points scored (25.8) and fourth in total yards (371.4), second in rushing yards (152.1) and sixth on third down (42.6%), all the while committing the fewest turnovers in the NFL (10). From day one, he and Poles made a commitment to running the ball as they completely renovated the interior of one of the worst Offensive Lines in the league, adding veterans such as (Guards) Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney alongside (Center) Drew Dalman. This has in turn facilitated an immense amount of growth from (Sophomore Quarterback) Caleb Williams, who has been cited as the primary reason that Johnson accepted the job in the first place. The number one overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Williams (pictured below) endured a rough ride as a rookie last Fall, though is flourishing under the guidance of his new HC; the 2022 Heisman may be completing a lower percentage of his throws (58.1%), but he has been far more impactful with 226.7 yards per game on a vastly-improved 6.28 net yards per attempt, up from 4.88 last season. Granted, he was sacked a league-worst 68 times in 2024, while trimming that number to just 23 sacks in 2025. While the changes in his protection have certainly helped, he is also getting the ball out of his hands much quicker, which comes down to coaching, as Johnson has encouraged him to settle for the open man instead of bullishly holding onto the ball in an effort to wait for targets to get open downfield. There has also been a steep increase in the use of play-action, which is another trope that he has imported from his success in Detroit; after totaling 85 pass attempts out of play-action for 626 yards last Fall, Williams has cleared that figure in two fewer games, racking up 1,083 yards on 149 attempts. Oh, and he logged his league-leading SIXTH fourth-quarter comeback in last week’s 22-16 rally over the Packers. Trailing 16-6 with just over five minutes left in regulation, (Veteran Kicker) Cairo Santos drilled a 43-yard field goal to cut the deifict to one possession at the 1:59 mark. From there, the hosts recovered the ensuing onside kick, as Williams hit (Rookie Wideout) Jahdae Walker in the back of the end zone to force overtime. Green Bay would receive possession first in the extra period, though would continue to collapse with a lost fumble on an aborted snap on a fourth-and-one from midfield, setting up Williams to be the hero once again; from his opponent’s 46-yard line, he launched an absolute DIME into the end zone for the game-winning touchdown to (Veteran Receiver) D.J. Moore. When it was all said and done, the Bears overcame 105 yards lost to penalties, 2-of-13 on third down, and possessed the ball for a mere 26:13 of action, though accumulated 400 total yards, won the turnover battle (+1), and converted 2-of-3 fourth downs to best the longtime rivals. Williams finished the night 19-of-34 passing for 250 yards and those two scores, rushing for another 30 yards on three carries.
From a betting perspective, the Bears come into this penultimate weekend of the season at 11-4 straight-up, but they have also been a rewarding side against the spread (9-5-1), equating to a net profit of 3.18 units. This is a team that has been a strong play throughout the campaign, as they are in the midst of a 4-1-1 run on that latter front, including last week’s stunning comeback against Green Bay (-1.5). In his first year in the Windy City, Johnson is now 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS, including 5-3 ATS away from Soldier Field, 5-3 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 3-2 ATS when harboring revenge, 6-3-1 ATS following a win, and 7-2-1 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops have covered five consecutive contests immediately after amassing 350+ total yards of offense, while also matching that run following a defensive performance in which they shipped north of 150 rushing yards to their opponent. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is no stranger to Sunday Night Football, though they haven’t enjoyed much success ATS (18-29), including 9-18 as a road underdog, which is the role that they find themselves in tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, the Bears trail the all-time series with the 49ers 33-36-1 SU, though it should be noted that their ledger in the regular season is remarkably level (33-33-1 SU), with the two sides alternating wins and loss over the last eight meetings. With that being said, Chicago is both 2-5 SUATS in their last seven trips to San Francisco, with last year’s venture to Levi’s Stadium ending in a 38-13 defeat. This was one was never close, folks, as the visitors fell behind 24-0 at halftime, before eventually adding what amounted to a pair of consolation scores post intermission. Williams and the offense really struggled on this day, accumulating just 162 total yards on fourteen first downs, with the number one overall pick relegated to 134 yards on 17-of-23 passing and a pair of touchdowns, but was subject to intense pressure with SEVEN sacks and a lost fumble. Speaking of the USC product, he is 2-4 in primetime, completing 58.7% of his throws for an average of 199.8 yards on 5.46 net yards per attempt, with five touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while also rushing for another two scores and losing a fumble. ATS, he is now 17-12-1 ATS overall, including 8-8 ATS on the road, 11-9 ATS as a dog, 7-5 ATS with revenge, 9-4-1 ATS following a win, 6-3-1 ATS after back-to-back victories, and 13-7-1 ATS against non-division foes, with his worst role coming as… you guessed it, a road dog (7-8 ATS). On the injury front, Johnson currently has nine players on Injured Reserve, including (Cornerback) Kyler Gordon (groin) and (Defensive Tackle) Dayo Odeyingbo (achilles). (Sophomore Wideout) Rome Odunze will miss his fourth straight game with a lingering foot malady, while (veteran Linebacker) T.J. Edwards (glute) and (emerging Cornerback) Nashon Wirght (hamstring) are both listed as questionable with various ailments. Looking ahead, the Bears will close the regular season with a visit from Johnson’s former employers, the Lions, who despite being eliminated from playoff contention on Christmas Day, utterly embarrassed them in a 52-21 drubbing at Ford Field back in mid-September.
Meanwhile, it is difficult to envision a team that has been as successful as the 49ers (11-4, 3rd in NFC West) have over the past six years flying under the proverbial radar, but that has been the most appropriate way to describe their campaign in 2025. Despite dealing with a tidal wave of injuries that have ravaged their roster and thus robbed them of a plethora of key personnel, San Francisco remarkably finds themselves as winners of five in a row with an inside track to both a division crown and the number one seed in the NFC. So, what in the name of Bill Walsh has happened in Santa Clara, you ask? Well, let’s start with the absences: (Starting Quarterback) Brock Purdy, (6-time Pro-Bowl Tight End) George Kittle, (Sophomore Wide Receiver) Ricky Pearsall, (2022 Defensive Player of the Year) Nick Bosa, (4-time All-Pro Linebacker) Fred Warner, and (Rookie Edge) Mykel Williams have each missed 6+ games, while (Veteran Receiver) Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t played a down of football this season. Oh, and if that wasn’t enough, the Niners have burned through THREE different Kickers as well. Where most teams would crumble under such loss, (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan has not let that happen to his charges for a second consecutive campaign, with the offensive maestro pushing all the right buttons in the face of adversity. In the offseason, he welcomed back (Defensive Coordinator) Robert Saleh for a second tour of duty that has kept that side of the ball afloat without their two most impactful playmakers. He also added (Backup QB) Mac Jones in Free Agency, which turned out to be one helluva insurance policy when Purdy missed all but two of the first ten games; Jones, the former fifteenth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, performed admirably with a 5-3 ledger as the starter, tossing thirteen touchdowns opposed to six interceptions and leading San Fran to an upset of (bitter rival) Los Angeles. However, the most courageous decision by Shanahan was also the most obvious: he put the ball, and by extension the fate of his team, in the hands of (Veteran Tailback) Christian McCaffrey. After missing thirteen games last season with an ailing achilles and other maladies, the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year has carried the attack in 2025, leading the NFL with a whopping 372 touches, resulting in 1,888 yards from scrimmage and sixteen touchdowns. To put that in perspective, he has touched the ball 33 more times than he did two years ago, doing so in one less game to boot. McCaffrey (pictured below) is on the verge of making history too, potentially becoming the only player in NFL history to log multiple 1,000-yard rushing/receiving campaigns. The 4-time Pro-Bowler accounted for 146 yards from scrimmage and a pair of receiving scores on 27 touches in last Monday Night’s 48-27 victory over the Colts, an offensive explosion that saw the visitors amass 440 total yards on 28 first downs. This performance continued a torrid run from an offense that hasn’t been forced to punt in over a month, rushing for 145 yards on 31 carries, converting 7-of-11 third downs, and possessing the ball for 33:05 of action. Purdy was prolific with 295 yards and FIVE touchdowns on 25-of-34 passing, while Kittle reeled in seven of his eight targets for 115 yards and an 11-yard score midway through the second quarter. Believe it or not, this one was only a 7-point game early in the fourth period, though the 49ers put their foot on the gas McCaffrey hauled in a short touchdown before (third-year Linebacker) Dee Winters picked off Philip Rivers for a 74-yard interception return to the house.
From a betting perspective, given that aforementioned rash of injuries, the 49ers have overachieved both straight-up (11-4) and against the spread (10-5), parlaying to a net profit of 4.09 units, marking the first time in three years that they’ve yielded a positive return on that latter front. This is a team that has been in red-hot form of late, covering each of their last FIVE outings after a mediocre 6-game stretch in which they alternated wins and losses ATS. Since arriving in Santa Clara back in 2017, Shanahan is now 89-70 SU and 81-76-2 ATS overall, including 36-37 ATS at Levi’s Stadium, 52-47 ATS overall when favored by the oddsmakers, 35-37 ATS versus an adversary harboring revenge, 45-40 ATS following a win, 15-12 ATS immediately after scoring 35+ points, and 47-48 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC West. Furthermore, his troops are 9-4 ATS as a home favorite fresh off a win and facing an opponent who is coming off one of their own as an underdog, though they have now failed to cover each of their last four home games against a foe owning a winning road record. San Francisco is also in the midst of a 1-6 malaise ATS after performing on Monday Night Football, while covering just two of their past ten tilts following a 30-point performance, with both trends proving relevant tonight. As is the case with their counterparts from the Windy City, this is a franchise that is also no stranger to Sunday Night Football, for since 1990 they are 16-20 ATS, including 8-10 ATS as a home favorite, though they are just 2-9 ATS when coming off back-to-back SUATS victories, which is the case tonight. As we touched upon earlier, the Niners and Bears stand level at 33-33-1 all-time in the regular season, though the former is a commanding 3-0 in the playoffs, besting the latter in the 1985 and 1989 NFC Championship Games by a combined score of 51-3. As for more recent encounters, that aforementioned 38-13 romp from last December was every bit as one-sided as the score would suggest. San Fran outgained Chicago 452-162 in total yards, 22-14 in first downs, 131-68 in rushing yards, and 321-95 in net passing yards thanks in large part to a season-high SEVEN sacks from their defense. (Veteran Edge) Yetur Gross-Matos accounted for three of those sacks, while (former teammate) Leonard Floyd logged two of his own. Purdy was a ruthlessly efficient 20-of-25 passing for 325 yards and a pair of touchdowns, both of which went to (veteran Wideout) Jauan Jennings (7 catches for 90 yards), while Kittle led the team with 151 yards on six receptions. Getting back to Purdy, he is 10-5 in primetime, completing 66.5% of his throws for an average of 224.1 yards on 7.93 net yards per attempt, with 23 touchdowns opposed to fourteen interceptions. As for his ledger ATS, the Iowa State product is now 26-23 ATS overall, including 14-13 ATS at home, 26-21 ATS as a favorite, 21-17 ATS following a win, 15-7 ATS when coming off back-to-back victories, and 17-17 ATS versus non-division foes, with his best role coming as… you guessed it, a home favorite (14-12 ATS). On the injury front, we shed some light on the bodies that have accumulated in the facility’s training room, with eleven players on Injured Reserve, the most notable being Bosa (knee) and Warner (ankle). Kittle is listed as questionable after not practicing throughout the week with a sore ankle, while Pearsall is in the same boat with an ailing knee. Looking ahead, if the 49ers do in fact win tonight, then that will setup a winner-takes-all showdown against the NFC-leading Seahawks next weekend, which will decide not only the division, but the number one seed in the conference as well.