8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Rams -7.5, Total: 49.5
The penultimate weekend of the regular season reaches its crescendo tonight in the Dirty South, where the Los Angeles Rams brace themselves for a playoff run, while the Atlanta Falcons are simply trying to build some positive momentum before heading into what is likely to be a tenuous offseason. It is always remarkable how quickly things can change in the NFL, for eleven days ago the Rams (11-4, 3rd in NFC West) were sitting atop the toughest division in the league and in pole position to secure the conference’s top seed. However, a wild 38-37 loss at the Seahawks has dropped them all the way to sixth in the postseason pecking order, with their faint hopes of securing the top seed in the NFC shattering with San Francisco’s wild win over Chicago last night. With that being said, (Veteran Quarterback) Matthew Stafford downplayed the need for homefield advantage, citing the fact that SoFi Stadium is oftentimes overrun by traveling fans of the opposition, which is one of the worst kept secrets in the league. However, there is plenty of reason that this team can go on the road and win in the playoffs, with the biggest being Stafford (pictured below). The 37-year-old considered retirement in the offseason, while lingering back soreness sidelined him throughout much of Training Camp, though you wouldn’t know it given how well he has performed in this, his seventeenth season in the NFL. In many regards, Stafford has never looked better, leading the league with 40 passing touchdowns, which is just one off of his career single-season mark. With the vet at the controls and (Head Coach) Sean McVay continuing to dial it up, this offense has been more prolific than ever, ranking first in points scored (30.5), second in total yards (404.9), third in turnovers (12), and third in the red zone (65.2%). There are weapons galore on this unit, with (Wideouts) Puka Nacua and Davante Adams forming a dangerous partnership, with the former leading the league in catches (114), first downs (73), and yards per game (113.7), while the latter paces his position with fourteen touchdown receptions. Furthermore, a young defense littered with emerging playmakers has been strong all year, ranking sixth in points allowed (19.9), fourth in takeaways (24), seventh on third down (36.1%) and third in the red zone (46.8%). Both sides of the football were as advertised in last weekend’s fateful trip to Lumen Field… well, for three quarters that is; the visitors led 30-14 early in the fourth period, though fell victim to a 58-yard punt return to the house, which was followed by the most bizarre 2-point conversion in recent memory, and another touchdown/2-point conversion with six minutes left in regulation. The Rams would have an opportunity to break the deadlock with just over two minutes to go, though (Rookie Kicker) Harrison Mevis missed his first field goal of the campaign, this one from 48 yards. Then, with the opening possession of overtime, Stafford hit Nacua in stride for a 41-yard touchdown to take the lead. Unfortunately, the Seahawks were up to the task with a touchdown drive of their own, followed by their THIRD successful 2-point conversion of the night, ending the affair altogether. There is no doubt that Los Angeles has been left wondering just how in the hell that they let this win slip through their fingers; McVay’s charges outgained their opponent 581-415 in total yards, possessed the ball for a commanding 40:33 of action, and won the turnover battle 3-0. Stafford was in his bag, completing 29-of-49 passes for 457 yards and three touchdowns, while Nacua erupted for 225 yards and a pair of scores on twelve catches. The defense also picked off Sam Darnold twice, sacked him four times, and pressured him on eleven occasions, though were gashed in the run game, shipping 171 rushing yards, including a 55-yard touchdown moments after the second half began.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Rams, who are 11-4 both straight-up and against the spread, equating to a net return of 4.09 units. In fact, this has been one of the most bankable teams in the NFL in that regard, posting a stellar 32-17-3 ledger ATS since 2023, with 10+ covers in each of those seasons. They have also covered eight of their last ten outings, including each of their past three tilts, even that narrow loss to Seattle from eleven days ago (+1.5). Since arriving in the City of Angels, McVay is now 99-61 SU and 87-68-5 ATS overall, including 45-32 ATS away from SoFi Stadium, 59-46 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 32-20 ATS following a loss, 16-12 ATS immediately after scoring 35+ points, 12-5 ATS after shipping 35+ points, and 52-48 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC West. Furthermore, his troops have covered NINE of ten road games after allowing at least 35 points, SEVEN in a row following an outright defeat, SIX straight away versus an adversary with a losing home record, and FIVE consecutive contests when coming off a defensive performance in which they relinquished 150+ rushing yards. It should also be noted that Stafford is 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS after Los Angeles has given up 31 or more points, which is precisely the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 26-28 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 5-5 ATS as a road favorite. Looking at this particular matchup, the Rams hold a commanding 49-30-2 edge in the all-time series against the Falcons going back to their days as division rivals within the old NFC West. With that being said, their current 2-game winning streak over the birds snapped a 5-game losing streak that dated back to 2008, with their most recent encounter, a 31-27 affair in SoCal, coming back in 2022. This one wasn’t quite as close as that score would suggest, folks, as a wave of turnovers from both sides (3 apiece) really threw this affair in the proverbial blender. The hosts raced out to a 28-3 lead early in the second half, though saw Atlanta score ten unanswered points inside of the final five minutes on a blocked punt return to the house (and a 2-point conversion), followed by a safety with six seconds left in regulation. LA did outgain the visitors 337-261 in total yards, converting 6-of-10 third downs, though were halted on their lone attempt on fourth. Stafford carried the attack with 272 passing yards on 27-of-36 attempts, with three touchdowns and a pair of interceptions, repeatedly hooking up with (former Wideout) Cooper Kupp, who hauled in eleven of fourteen targets for 108 yards and two of those scores. Defensively, (Cornerback) Cobie Durant had himself a day, logging an interception and a sack. Getting back to Stafford, the ageless gunslinger has split six career meetings against the Falcons, completing 60.7% of his throws for an average of 304.5 yards on 7.09 net yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns opposed to four interceptions. However, his resume on MNF has been spotty to say the least (6-10), totaling 21 touchdowns in comparison to nineteen turnovers. As for his ledger ATS, the Georgia product is now 115-123 ATS overall, 60-58 ATS on the road, 61-63 ATS as a favorite, 50-56 ATS following a loss, and 76-80 ATS versus non-division foes, with his best role coming as… you guessed it, a road favorite (5-1 ATS). On the injury front, McVay has one of the healthier squads in the NFL at this point, with just five players on Injured Reserve, chief among them (Veteran Tackle) Rob Havenstein (ankle) and (Tight End) Tyler Higbee (ankle). With that being said, the aforementioned Adams is expected to miss his second straight game due to a tender hamstring, while (Offensive Linemen) Kevin Dotson (ankle) and Alaric Jackson (knee) are both listed as questionable with various maladies. Looking ahead, the Rams will conclude the regular season with a visit from the struggling Cardinals, whom they blasted in a 45-17 beatdown in early December.
Meanwhile, there is nothing but the future to play for in Atlanta, where the Falcons (6-9, 3rd in NFC South) will finish the season with their EIGHTH straight losing record. Needless to say, there are going to be some hard questions to be answered in the coming months for an organization that has been nothing short of mediocre since 2018; the birds are 53-78 (.404) during this stretch, with this latest failure likely to prompt an examination from (longtime Owner) Arthur Blank. That means that (Head Coach) Raheem Morris and (General Manager) Terry Fontenot will both be under review, which right or wrong simply comes with the territory of failing to meet expectations. So, what in the name of Deion Sanders has gone wrong in the ATL, you ask? Well, roster construction has long been a point of contention when it comes to this team, particularly when you consider how heavily they have invested in the skill positions of their offense. Between 2021 and 2024, Fontenot has spent four first-rounders within the top-8 selections on the following players: (Tight End) Kyle Pitts, (Receiver) Drake London, (Tailback) Bijan Robinson, and (Quarterback) Michael Penix. With the exception of Robinson (pictured below), who has cracked 1,200 rushing yards in each of the past two seasons and leads the NFL with 2,026 yards from scrimmage this year, this quartet hasn’t come close to living up to the expectations that have come with their respective draft pedigree. After earning a Pro-Bowl nod as a rookie, Pitts has been wildly inconsistent, while London has shown flashes, but has just one 1,000-yard campaign in four seasons. And then there is Penix, who very well may be the most egregious selection of that quartet. Despite signing (veteran QB) Kirk Cousins to a lucrative contract months before the Draft, the Falcons still picked Penix, a prolific lefthander who had just led Washington to the National Championship Game. However, his sordid injury history has been a major issue, relegating the southpaw to just a dozen starts in two seasons, with a partially torn ACL ending his 2025 campaign over a month ago. Furthermore, it isn’t as if the attack was flying high when he was healthy either; the 25-year-old completed 60.1% of his throws for 220.2 yards on 6.51 net yards per attempt, with nine touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while the overall offense could muster just 19.5 points per game on 332.5 total yards, including 212.6 through the air and converting just 33.8% of their third downs. It also hasn’t helped that their Special Teams unit has been a disaster. Atlanta ranks twenty-ninth overall in kickoff coverage at 29.8 yards per return, while they have made repeated gaffes in their handling of punts, including a critical muffed punt in a glaring 27-24 loss to the lowly Jets. As for the kicking game, Morris has gone through three different Kickers thus far, leading to a success rate of 74.2% (31st Overall), as their current Kicker, Zane Gonzalez missed a 50-yard field goal in that same affair. With FIVE losses by three points or less, this has been persistent issue for the birds. However, the Falcons are in the midst of finishing strong with back-to-back wins over the likes of the Buccaneers (29-28) and Cardinals (26-19), as Cousins has turned back the clock (277.5 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT), while the run game has provided plenty of balance (131.5 yards), with the rebuilt defense applying pressure with seven sacks. Will a strong finish buy Morris and Fontenot more time? Perhaps, though it is clear that there is a wealth of work to do in Atlanta no matter who is in charge moving forward…
From a betting perspective, the Falcons may come into this penultimate weekend at 6-9 straight-up, but they have been better against the spread (8-7) returning a net profit of -.27 units. This is a team that has been very up-and-down on that front, covering back-to-back outings three times this season (including each of their last two), yet have also failed to cover consecutive contests on two separate occasions. Since returning to the ATL last season, Morris is now 18-25 SU and 21-22 ATS overall, including 8-12 ATS at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, 12-11 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 7-10 ATS following a win, and 14-13 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC South. Furthermore, his troops are a dreadful 3-15 ATS as a home underdog, while posting a ledger of 5-15-1 ATS immediately after rushing for 150 yards in the previous game, with both trends proving relevant tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 13-21 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 7-1 ATS when receiving points, though it should be noted that these birds are 3-5 ATS as a home dog, winning outright against the Bills in that same role earlier this season. As we touched upon earlier, Atlanta trails the all-time series against the Rams by a sizeable margin (30-49-2), though they have covered five of the past six encounters, including that aforementioned 31-27 defeat from three years ago. Indeed, the Falcons came into this one at 10.5-point dogs, and for the majority of the affair it appeared that they wouldn’t come close to beating that spread; the visitors found themselves in a 31-10 hole early in the fourth quarter, though ended the day on a 17-0 run thanks to a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, a recovered fumble, and a safety with just six seconds left on the clock to earn the backdoor cover. Apart from that, it was an ugly performance in which the offense could muster just 261 total yards, while converting 3-of-10 third downs and 1-of-2 fourth downs, with two of their three turnovers coming on their final two possessions. (Former QB) Marcus Mariota went 17-of-26 for 196 passing yards with two touchdowns and interceptions apiece, while also losing a fumble on their final drive. The aforementioned London hauled in eight of twelve targets for 86 yards and one of those scores, with his former teammate, Olamide Zaccheaus, accounting for the other. As for their current QB, Cousins has split four career meetings with Rams, completing 73.4% of his throws for an average of 279.8 yards on 7.28 net yards per attempt, with six touchdowns opposed to one interception. However, he has historically struggled on MNF, logging 240.4 passing yards with 22 scores in comparison to committing fifteen total turnovers. ATS, the Michigan State product is now 81-83 ATS overall, including 36-48 ATS at home, 39-38 ATS as a dog, 35-36 ATS following a win, 14-22 ATS after back-to-back victories, and 51-56 versus non-division foes. On the injury front, Morris hasn’t had the good fortune of his counterpart tonight, with a dozen players currently on Injured Reserve, including starters such as (Safety) Billy Bowman (achilles), (Right Tackle) Kaleb McGary (leg), and the aforementioned Penix (knee). (Cornerbacks) Mike Hughes (ankle) and Clark Phillips (triceps) will both miss tonight’s affair as well, though London is good to go after being limited throughout the week of practice with a bulky knee. Looking ahead, the Falcons will close out the campaign with a visit from the Saints, whom they bested in a 24-10 victory in New Orleans back on November 23rd.