7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Ohio State -9.5, Total: 41.5
The Quarterfinals of the 2025 College Football Playoff begin tonight in what is a rematch of one of the most pivotal National Championship Games in the history of the sport, as the (No. 10) Miami Hurricanes battle the reigning champion, (No. 2) Ohio State Buckeyes in a rematch that has been over two decades in the making. Indeed, Miami (11-2, 6-2 in ACC) has FINALLY returned after falling from grace following that wild, double-overtime affair in the desert, winning ten or more games in consecutive campaigns for the first time since 2003. For over 20 years, the persistent question associated with this program has been this: Are they back? While there have been plenty of false starts over that period of time, it appears that (Head Coach) Mario Cristobal has returned his alma mater to their seat among the sport’s elite. After all, this is a school that won FIVE National Titles from 1983 to 2001, were a fixture in the polls, and were responsible for a plethora of stars who went on to enjoy Hall of Fame careers on the professional level. However, they had been very much lost in the wilderness for quite some time, logging a win percentage of just .572 from 2006-2023, with nary a conference title or an appearance in the Playoff to speak of. However, that has now changed under the leadership of Cristobal, an Offensive Lineman during their glory years, and a relentless builder as a coach. So, how has the Miami native turned things around, you ask? Well, given their location it comes as no surprise that he has recruited well and has leaned heavily into the Transfer Portal and NIL over the past few years, particularly at Quarterback where they have struck gold in successive seasons. However, the biggest difference between this current incarnation of the Hurricanes and their predecessor is a dominant defense that ranks among the nation’s best. Last season, The U ultimately missed out on the Playoff due to a dismal defense that gave up way too many big plays courtesy of overaggressive playcalling and a lack of discipline, shipping 25.3 points per game (69th in FBS) on 327.2 total yards. However, in their two losses during the regular season (which came by a combined 9 points!!!), they were gashed for 35.0 points on 424.5 yards. As such, Cristobal fired his entire defensive staff (save for D-Line Coach, Jason Taylor) and opted to rebuild around (Defensive Coordinator) Corey Heatherman, who had previously built a strong unit at Minnesota. This has proven to be a home run for the Canes, who rank sixth in the FBS in points allowed (13.0) on a much improved 281.5 total yards. The key has been a Defensive Line that has been a proverbial wreaking ball throughout the season, led by (Edge Rushers) Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor, who have combined for 16.0 sacks, 25.0 tackles for loss, five forced fumbles, and even an interception. This duo was instrumental in Miami’s 10-3 triumph over (No. 7) Texas A&M in the First Round of the Playoff, amassing 4.5 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss. Bain (pictured below) was particularly influential, logging three sacks and four TFL, while applying relentless pressure in the Backfield. When it was all said and done, the visitors overcame a noisy Kyle Field, whipping winds, and three missed field goals, due in large part to three massive takeaways, including the game-winning interception courtesy of (Freshman Cornerback) Bryce Fitzgerald on a fourth-and-goal in the end zone.
From a betting perspective, Miami comes into this Quarterfinal at 11-2 straight-up, though have also been profitable against the spread too (8-5), equating to a net return of 2.36 units, marking the first time in ages that they have managed to do so. This is a team that has earned back the trust of bettors following a dismal midseason swoon (1-3 ATS), covering three of their last four outings, including that triumphant slugfest in College Station (+3). Since returning to his alma mater in 2022, Cristobal is now 33-18 SU and 21-26 ATS overall, including 10-11 ATS away from Hard Rock Stadium, 6-7 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 4-5 ATS with the benefit of rest, 12-18 ATS following a win, and 25-18 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the ACC. Furthermore, his troops have covered six of their last eight games immediately after relegating an opponent below 20 points, but they are also in the midst of a 3-9 stretch ATS on the road versus an adversary enjoying some rest following an outright loss. The Hurricanes haven’t fared well against competition hailing from the BIG 10, failing to cover SIX such encounters in a row, while posting a 1-4 ledger ATS in their last five games played on fieldturf. They are also in the midst of a 1-4 stretch ATS after throwing for fewer than 170 yards in the previous contest, which is the case tonight. While this the first-ever trek through the Playoff for The U, that victory over the Aggies served as their first postseason win since 2016, snapping a streak of seven straight losses in either conference championships or bowls. In fact, this is a school that is a miserable 2-13 SU in the postseason since 2007!!! Looking at this particular matchup, tonight’s showdown in Arlington is just the sixth all-time meeting between these programs, with the Canes trailing the series 2-3. Of course, the most notable clash was that aforementioned 31-24 classic in the 2003 BCS Championship Game, in which Miami’s bid for back-to-back national titles was crushed in heartbreaking fashion; the reigning champs thought that they had finished off the Buckeyes on a fourth-and-goal in overtime, only to fall victim to a controversial late pass interference penalty that prolonged the affair, with their opponent taking advantage of their good fortune, rushing for what would be the game-winning touchdown. The Hurricanes would have one final attempt to draw level, though (Heisman finalist) Ken Dorsey’s heave into the end zone fell short of its mark. Ironically, the Canes succumbed to what was very much a perfect storm in this one, for in addition to that questionable DPI, they committed FIVE turnovers and lost (fellow Heisman finalist) Willis McGahee to a gruesome leg injury early in the fourth quarter. That fateful affair served as a major turning point for both programs, particularly The U, who would eventually plummet from their elite status and become mired in controversy and scandal over the ensuing decade, leaving them lost in a malaise that they have only now climbed out of. As for more recent meetings, these schools would cross paths in a home-and-home series between 2010 and 2011, with each side winning on their home turf. Looking ahead, if Miami do in fact enact revenge tonight, then they will be off to Glendale, Arizona to battle the winner of (No. 6) Ole Miss and (No. 3) Georgia in the Fiesta Bowl.
Meanwhile, it will be 25 days since Ohio State (11-1, 8-0 in BIG 10) has last played a down of football, which is an even longer period of time when it is coming after their only loss of the campaign. Indeed, the Buckeyes saw their 14-game win streak that began in last year’s Playoff snapped in the BIG 10 Championship, where they fell to the second-ranked team in the nation, Indiana, in what was very much a 13-10 defensive slugfest. OSU led 10-6 at intermission courtesy of a 30-yard field goal from (Senior Kicker) Jayden Fielding and a 9-yard touchdown from (Redshirt Freshman Quarterback) Julian Sayin to (Junior Wideout) Carnell Tate. However, that would be it for an offense that was shutout in the second half, turning it over on downs twice and missing a 27-yard field goal. Conversely, the most dominant defense in the country finally blinked, conceding an 88-yard touchdown drive in the third quarter; OSU fell victim to a 51-yard completion on a third-and-two from the Hoosiers’ 20-yard line, before shipping the go-ahead 17-yard score in the red zone. It was just the third time all season that the defense relinquished 100+ rushing yards, while their opponent’s 340 total yards stands as the most that they have given up all year, which should tell you all that you need to know about a defensive unit that has been even better than their predecessors. Believe it or not, there was actually some concern on this side of the football as (Head Coach) Ryan Day had to replace the venerable Jim Knowles, who opted to leave Columbus for a more lucrative opportunity coordinating Penn State’s defense (how’d that work out for him?). In an interesting turn of events, Day hired (Defensive Coordinator) Matt Patricia to fill that void, which has turned out to be nothing short of a steal for the Scarlet & Gray. Of course, Patricia rose to prominence as a longtime assistant under the legendary Bill Belichick in New England, where he won three Super Bowls in a variety of roles, eventually leading to an ill-fated tenure as Head Coach of the Lions. In transitioning to the collegiate level, the 51-year-old has brought with him a wealth of tactical nous that are rarely seen in the NCAA, which coupled with elite talent has parlayed to a great success. On the season, OSU has relinquished a scant 8.2 points per game (1st in FBS) on 213.5 total yards, including 129.1 yards against the pass and another 84.5 yards versus the run, with 74 tackles for loss, 33 sacks, eight forced fumbles, and fourteen takeaways. Making this production even more remarkable is the fact that they came into the season with only THREE returning starters, though it certainly helps to have a triumvirate of elite playmakers such as (Junior Safety) Caleb Downs, (Junior Edge) Arvell Reese, and (Senior Linebacker) Sonny Styles, who are all expected to hear their names called early in next Spring’s NFL Draft. Of the trio, Downs (pictured below) has been the most noteworthy, amassing 60 tackles, five for loss, one sack, two interceptions, and a pair of deflected passes.
From a betting perspective, Ohio State comes into tonight’s CFP affair from the Cotton Bowl at 11-1 straight-up, but have been even more profitable against the spread (9-3) than their current opponent, enjoying a return of 5.18 units. This is a team that saw a streak of three consecutive covers snapped in that aforementioned defeat in the BIG 10 Championship (-3.5), which was only the second time this season in which they were favored by less than 9.5 points. Since taking over in 2019, Day is now a ridiculous 81-11 SU and 53-35-3 ATS overall, including 16-14 ATS away from Columbus, 46-33 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 12-7 ATS with the luxury of rest, 2-4 ATS following a loss, and 11-14 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the BIG 10. Furthermore, his troops have covered five games in a row immediately after rushing for fewer than 100 yards in the previous tilt, each of their last five contests following a non-cover, and a staggering NINE of their last ten versus opponents with a win percentage north of .500. The Buckeyes are also in the midst of a commanding 17-1 stretch ATS away from home and coming off an outright defeat, which is precisely the case tonight. With that being said, it should also be noted that they are just 2-7 ATS as favorites of less than 28 points against a non-conference foe, though they did handle their business on that front in their lone opportunity to do so this Fall, a 14-7 slugfest over Texas in the opener (-1.5). There are few programs that have enjoyed success in the Playoff like Ohio State has, joining the likes of Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia as the only schools to win it on multiple occasions (2014 and 2024). The Scarlet & Gray are 7-4 all-time in the CFP, bringing a 4-game winning streak in the tournament into tonight’s showdown at AT&T Stadium. As we covered earlier, OSU holds a narrow 3-2 lead in the all-time series against Miami, though did get manhandled in their most recent encounter, a 24-6 affair from South Beach in 2011. Of course, that aforementioned 31-24 triumph in the 2003 BCS Championship serves as not only the most notable meeting between these programs, but also ushered in an era of prosperity for Brutus & Co that doesn’t appear to be ending anytime soon; prior to hoisting that crystal football, it had been 32 years since their last national title, while the following 22 years would see them go on to claim two more nattys (2014 and 2024) along with eleven BIG 10 titles and an insane win percentage of .858!!! However, on that night in Arizona they were very much an old-school group winning by running the ball and dominating on defense, which they or more less did against the Hurricanes, forcing FIVE turnovers (3 of which were fumbles) and rushing for 145 yards and four touchdowns on an industrious 52 carries. (Former Tailback) Maurice Clarett, a true freshman and a Heisman finalist in his own right, had just 47 yards on 23 carries, but his plunge into the end zone during overtime would seal the deal for the Buckeyes. Looking ahead, if Ohio State does in fact extend their CFP win streak to five games, then they will face the winner of tomorrow’s quarterfinal between Ole Miss and Georgia in one week’s time in the Fiesta Bowl, which ironically served as the venue for that previous triumph over the Hurricanes.