4:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Indiana -7.0, Total: 47.5
The Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff continue today in the grandaddy of them all, the Rose Bowl, as the (No. 9) Alabama Crimson Tide look to embrace the underdog role in this showdown with the (No. 1) Indiana Hoosiers, who look to add another notch on their belt against a traditional powerhouse in what has been nothing short of a magical campaign. After missing out on the Playoff in his first year on the job, (Head Coach) Kalen DeBoer has led Alabama (11-3, 7-1 in SEC) to what has long been their bare minimum of goals. Of course, there are expectations, and then there are the expectations in Tuscaloosa, where his predecessor built an empire of empires; between his arrival in 2007 and departure following the 2023 campaign, (former HC) Nick Saban won three BCS National Titles in a 4-year-span, before leading the program to EIGHT Playoffs over the course of a decade, winning it all on three occasions. Simply put, DeBoer (pictured below) has HUGE shoes to fill, with last season’s 9-4 finish falling well short of the standard set by Saban. At multiple points this Fall, it felt as if his troops would come up short again, as they were humbled by unranked Florida State in the season opener, which rung a series of alarm bells around Bryant-Denney Stadium. To his credit, the Tide rallied back to win ten of their final eleven outings, earning a trip to the SEC Championship Game where they ultimately fell to (No. 3) Georgia in a 28-7 drubbing, though that wouldn’t stop the CFP Selection Committee from picking the Crimson Tide, who clearly were NOT penalized for getting pummeled in that finale. However, with the ongoing debate of their playoff legitimacy coupled with swirling rumors that DeBoer was bound for Ann Arbor to take over Michigan, he and his team managed to block out all the noise and defeat (No. 8) Oklahoma in a wild 34-24 affair in Norman. Needless to say, this is precisely the kind of win that the faithful in Tuscaloosa have been desperate for, as the Tide rallied from an early 17-0 deficit, to outscore the hosts 34-7 the rest of the way. The defense and special teams got the comeback started, as the visitors blocked a punt deep in Sooners territory, leading directly to a field goal courtesy of (Sophomore Kicker) Conor Talty to make it 17-10, followed less than two minutes later by a seismic 50-yard interception return to the house by (Sophomore Defensive Back) Zabien Brown to draw level just before halftime. it would be all Tide post intermission, as (Junior Quarterback) Ty Simpson hit (Freshman Wideout) Lotzier Brooks for a 30-yard scoring strike to take the lead, while another field goal from Talty made it 27-17 heading into the final stanza. Oklahoma would respond with a touchdown of their own, though (Sophomore Tailback) Daniel Hills’ 6-yard rushing touchdown reestablished the 10-point advantage with 7:24 left in regulation. From there, OU would have opportunities to get back into it, but missed a pair of field goals, sealing their fate. When it was all said and done, Alabama earned this improbable victory despite being outgained 362-260 in total yards, rushing for just 28 yards on 25 carries, totaling a dozen first downs, and converting a mere 2-of-12 third downs. Simpson, who struggled mightily in a 23-21 loss to the Sooners in mid-November, bounced back with 232 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns on 18-of-29 throws, with Brooks hauling in each of those scores along with five catches for 79 yards. In addition to that pick-6, which was the lone takeaway of the night, the Crimson Tide made plenty of plays on defense, logging 6.5 tackles for loss and FIVE sacks, along with a forced fumble.
From a betting perspective, Alabama come into today’s quarterfinal at 11-3 straight-up, though they have been a rewarding side against the spread too (8-4-2), returning a profit of 2.36 units. This is a team that has cooled off on that latter front since a 5-1-1 start, covering just three of their past seven outings (3-3-1 ATS), including that aforementioned triumph in Norman. Since taking over in Tuscaloosa last season, DeBoer is now 20-6 SU and 13-10-2 ATS overall, including 4-6-2 ATS away from Bryant-Denney Stadium, 3-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 5-1 ATS with the luxury of rest, 8-8-2 ATS following a win, and 5-3 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the SEC. Furthermore, his troops have really taken advantage of the benefits of a bye week, covering FIVE such tilts in a row, though haven’t covered back-to-back contests in four games now (0-3-1 ATS), and are 1-3-1 ATS immediately following a SU victory. The Crimson Tide have also really struggled in the month of January over the past few seasons, owning a 3-9 ledger ATS in the first month of the new year. However, this is a program that is 8-1 ATS versus an opponent that is above .500 and coming off an outright win as an underdog, while being in the midst of a 16-2 run ATS versus an adversary fresh off consecutive SUATS wins, with both trends proving relevant today. Dating back to its inception in 2014, the Playoff has certainly been good to the Tide, who have rolled their way to a 10-5 ledger in the tournament, with that win over the Sooners marking their first since the 2022 National Semifinals against Cincinnati (27-6). Looking at this particular matchup, these two programs have NEVER crossed paths on the gridiron, though these coaches have intimate knowledge of them given their ties to the opposition. DeBoer spent one season in Bloomington as Offensive Coordinator/QB Coach under Tom Allen, while his counterpart spent five years as part of Saban’s staff in Tuscaloosa. Interestingly, Bama has bested the top-ranked team in the polls on NINE occasions, which is tied for most all-time with Miami, with their last triumph coming against Georgia in the 2023 SEC Title Game (27-24). Ironically, they would fall to another No. 1, in the form of Michigan in their very next game (27-20) in the 2024 National Semifinals. On the injury front, DeBoer has a largely healthy team on his hands, particularly with the return of (Senior Tight End) Josh Cuevas, one of the few transfers to following him from Washington, who missed the final three games prior to the Playoff. The big fella hauled in 33 receptions for 376 yards and four touchdowns this season, including three catches for 35 yards against Oklahoma. Looking ahead, if Alabama pulls off the upset, then they will be off to Atlanta to face either (No. 5) Oregon or (No. 4) Texas Tech in the Peach Bowl on January 9th.
Meanwhile, if we had told you coming into this season that Indiana (13-0, 12-0 in BIG 10) and Alabama would be facing off in the Quarterfinals of the Playoff and it would be the former who was top-seeded, unbeaten, and favored, you probably would have choked on your beverage, yet here we are on New Year’s Day and this is the reality before us. Indeed, you would be hard-pressed to find a more meteoric ascension than that of the Hoosiers under the direction of (Head Coach) Curt Cignetti, who has been less HC and more force of nature since arriving in Bloomington. Prior to this season, we’re talking about a program that owned the WORST win percentage in Division I, winning no more than eight games in any season since 1945!!! However, the 64-year-old backed up his bold words in his introductory press conference, immediately leading IU to eleven wins and a trip to the Playoff. Now, in year two they have returned to the CFP as the top-ranked team in the Polls, favored against a program who has been the gold standard for nearly two decades. So, how has Cignetti (pictured below) pulled this off, you ask? Well, allow us to give this guy his flowers, for he has proven to be a PHENOMENAL coach, manager, and builder of a program, working the Transfer Portal like a maestro, evidenced by the slew of players that followed him from James Madison, while instilling a toughness that hasn’t been seen on the gridiron in Bloomington at any point in their history. Just look at the numbers, folks; Indiana ranks fourth in points scored (41.9) and second in points allowed (10.8), outgaining their foes by a sizeable margin (+215.6 total yards), all the while enjoying a healthy turnover differential (+17), which compares favorably with any of the other teams comprising this tournament field. Furthermore, this is a BIG 10 team, which means that they haven’t been playing a string of cupcakes, earning THREE victories over schools ranked in the top-10 of the AP Poll, Illinois (63-10), Oregon (30-20), and most recently (reigning National Champion) Ohio State in the BIG 10 Championship Game (13-10). That last one is easily the feather in Cignetti’s cap, as his troops avenged last season’s defeat in Columbus (38-15), ending the Buckeyes’ unbeaten run and holding them to 322 total yards, including just 58 via the run on 26 carries. Trailing 10-3 late in the second half, the Hoosiers cut the deficit to four points thanks to (Sophomore Kicker) Nicolas Radicic’s second field goal of the half. However, the defense would step up and shutout OSU post intermission, while (Junior Quarterback) Fernando Mendoza all but sealed the Heisman award with a masterful 7-play, 88-yard drive highlighted by a 51-yard completion to get into enemy territory, where he found (Senior Receiver) Elijah Sarratt for a 17-yard touchdown to take the lead. From there, the defense stopped the defending champs on a fourth-and-one at the 5-yard line, while also enjoying some good fortune as Ohio State missed a 27-yard field goal to draw level with 2:48 left in regulation. Again, (Defensive Coordinator) Bryant Haines earned himself a raise with this one, as his troops relegated their adversary to 4-of-12 third downs, 0-of-1 on fourth down, logged nine tackles for loss and five sacks, while setting the tone with an interception on the Buckeyes’ opening possession of the night. And then there was Mendoza, who matched wits against the top defense in the country, completing 15-of-23 throws for 222 yards, a touchdown and an interception, making plays when he needed to do so. Simply put, engineering a 14-play drive for 61 yards and that aforementioned touchdown possession against this defense has been nigh impossible this season, while his 9-yard completion on a crucial fourth-and-two led to the second of Radicic’s field goals. Then again, the Cal transfer has been the biggest difference for the Hoosiers in 2025; Mendoza has completed an efficient 71.5% of his passes for 2,980 yards with BIG 10 bests in passing touchdowns (33), yards per attempt (9.4), and adjusted yards per attempt (10.66), earning a plethora of hardware along the way, including the Walter Camp, Maxwell, BIG 10 Offensive Player of the Year, and Heisman awards, as well as All-American First Team honors.
From a betting perspective, Indiana enters this Playoff at a perfect 13-0 straight-up, but they too have returned a profit against the spread (7-5), parlaying to a net positive of 1.36 units. This is a team that has cooled off a bit of late, splitting their past four outings ATS, though they have covered each of their past two tilts, the most recent being that triumph over the Buckeyes in the BIG 10 Title Game (+3.5). Since arriving in Bloomington last season, Cignetti is now 24-2 SU and 15-9 ATS overall, including 7-4 ATS away from Memorial Stadium, 14-7 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 3-2 ATS with the luxury of rest, 14-7 ATS following a win, and 3-3 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the BIG 10. Furthermore, his troops are 10-2 ATS when favored over an adversary that is above .500, have covered six of their last seven games contested on natural grass, and five of their past six versus foes with a winning record. The Hoosiers are 7-2 ATS when favored by fourteen or fewer points under Cignetti, though historically have been very poor as non-conference favorites of 27 or fewer points (0-6 ATS), with both trends proving relevant today. This quarterfinal marks the second consecutive season in which IU has advanced to the Playoff, though they are searching for their first-ever victory in the tournament. They were one-and-done last year with a 27-17 loss at Notre Dame, in which they struggled to match the physicality of the hosts; the Irish opened the game with a 98-yard rushing touchdown, eventually leading to a commanding 27-3 advantage. The aforementioned Sarratt led the team with four catches for 68 receiving yards, along with a successful 2-point conversion with 1:27 left in regulation. On the injury front, (Junior Wideout) Omar Cooper Jr., who leads the team with 58 receptions and 804 receiving yards, has been dealing with a leg malady, though is probable to suit up in this quarterfinal. Looking ahead, if Indiana triumphs in the Rose Bowl, then they will face the winner of Oregon and Texas Tech in next week’s National Semifinal, setting up a potential rematch with the Ducks, who they upset in a 30-20 affair in Eugene back in October.