7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Miami -3.5, Total: 51.5
We have reached the proverbial Final Four of the College Football Playoff, as the (No. 10) Miami Hurricanes battle the (No. 6) Ole Miss Rebels in what many have billed as an improbable National Semifinal from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Indeed, Miami (12-2, 6-2 in ACC) has FINALLY returned in emphatic fashion, folks, writing a wrong that had hung over the program for two decades as they enjoyed a dish of sweet revenge in last week’s stunning 24-14 upset of (No. 2) Ohio State. Back in 2003, the Hurricanes’ bid for back-to-back national titles was shattered in an epic 31-24 affair in the desert that required two overtimes to crown a victor, with a controversial Pass Interference penalty prolonging the game. For the bulk of the next 20 years, The U would experience a Shakespearean fall from grace, as the program fell into turmoil and scandal leading to a period under NCAA probation. From 2006 to 2023, they burned through six different head coaches, logging a win percentage of just .572 with nary a conference title or an appearance in the Playoff to speak of. Needless to say, this is a tremendous drop for a program that won FIVE National Titles from 1983 to 2001, were a fixture in the polls, and were responsible for a plethora of stars who went on to enjoy Hall of Fame careers in the NFL. However, this renaissance has come under the leadership of (Head Coach) Mario Cristobal, an Offensive Lineman during those glory years, who has proven to be a relentless builder as a coach. So, how has the Miami native turned things around, you ask? Well, given their location it comes as no surprise that he has recruited well and has leaned heavily into the Transfer Portal and NIL over the past few years, particularly at Quarterback where they have struck gold in successive seasons. However, the biggest difference between this current incarnation of the Hurricanes and their predecessor is a dominant defense that ranks among the nation’s best. Last season, Miami ultimately missed out on the Playoff due to a dismal defense that gave up way too many big plays courtesy of overaggressive playcalling and a lack of discipline, shipping 25.3 points per game (69th in FBS) on 327.2 total yards. However, in their two losses during the regular season (which came by a combined 9 points!!!), they were gashed for 35.0 points on 424.5 yards. As a result, Cristobal fired nearly his entire defensive staff and opted to rebuild around (Defensive Coordinator) Corey Heatherman, who had previously built a strong unit at Minnesota. This has proven to be a home run for the Hurricanes, who rank fourth in the FBS in points allowed (13.1) on a much improved 285.1 total yards. The key has been a Defensive Line that has been a proverbial wreaking ball throughout the season, led by (Edge Rushers) Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor (pictured together below), who have combined for 18.5 sacks, 28.5 tackles for loss, five forced fumbles, and even an interception. This dynamic duo has been nothing short of instrumental to their playoff success, accounting for 4.5 sacks and 5.5 tackles of loss in their 10-3 victory over (No. 7) Texas A&M in College Station, before logging another three sacks and 3.5 TFLs in that triumph over the reigning national champs. Cristobal’s charges jumped on the Buckeyes early, overcoming an early fumble deep in enemy territory thanks to a 9-yard touchdown toss from (Senior QB) Carson Beck to (Junior Tailback) Mark Fletcher Jr., followed by a seismic 72-yard interception return to the house courtesy of (Senior Cornerback) Keionte Scott to lead 14-0 at halftime. OSU would fight their way back into it though, trailing 17-14 midway through the fourth quarter, though Miami would kill the game off with their physical rushing attack, which allowed them to keep themselves in manageable down and distance against what was statistically the toughest defense in college football history, rushing for 52 yards on the final drive, concluding with a short jaunt into the end zone from (Sophomore RB) CharMar Brown. When it was all said and done, the Canes rushed for 153 yards on the night, converted a healthy 7-of-14 third downs and a crucial fourth down on that aforementioned drive. Beck was an efficient 19-of-26 passing for just 138 yards but took great care of the football with zero turnovers and kept the chains moving. Fletcher racked up 90 rushing yards and that receiving score, while (Senior Safety) Jakobe Thomas intercepted (Heisman finalist) Julian Sayin with 0:49 left in regulation to effectively end the game. This victory was the team’s twelfth of the campaign, which is notable for this fact; Miami has won 12 games on four previous occasions, advancing to the National Title Game each time, winning it all in 1987, 1991, and 2001.
From a betting perspective, Miami arrives to tonight’s Semifinal at 12-2 straight-up, though have also been profitable against the spread too (9-5), equating to a net return of 3.26 units, marking the first time in ages that they have managed to do so. This is a team that has earned back the trust of bettors following a dismal midseason swoon (1-3 ATS), covering four of their last five outings, including last week’s retribution against the Buckeyes (+7.5). Since returning to his alma mater in 2022, Cristobal is now 34-18 SU and 22-26 ATS overall, including 11-11 ATS away from Hard Rock Stadium, 15-20 ATS when favored the oddsmakers, 13-18 ATS following a win, and 26-18 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the ACC. Furthermore, his troops have covered seven of their last nine games immediately after relegating an opponent below 20 points, while riding a 4-game win-streak ATS against non-conference adversaries. However, the Hurricanes are just 1-4 ATS in their last five contests after shipping 280+ passing yards in the previous game, which is precisely the case tonight. While this the first-ever trek through the Playoff for The U, their ledger in the postseason has been fairly dreadful over the past two decades, going 3-13 SUATS in such games since 2007!!! Looking at this particular matchup, these programs have met on just three occasions, though tonight’s showdown in the desert marks their first encounter since 1951, with the Canes trailing the all-time series 1-2 SU. However, the aforementioned Beck is very familiar with Ole Miss from his tenure in Athens, splitting two affairs between 2023 and 2024. The first, a 52-17 blowout between the hedges, saw the QB complete 18-of-25 throws for 306 yards, a pair of touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for another 30 yards on four carries. However, it was a very different story when the crossed paths a year later in Oxford, as the Jacksonville native was 20-of-31 passing for just 186 yards and an interception, while suffering FIVE sacks in a 28-10 defeat. On the injury front, keep an eye on the status of (Junior Defensive Tackle) Ahmad Moton along (Sophomore Defensive Backs) O.J. Frederique Jr and Damari Brown, who are all listed as questionable with various maladies. Of the triumvirate, Moton’s absence would hit the hardest, as the big fella has been a consistent force between Bain and Mesidor, logging 4.5 sacks and 8.0 tackles for loss this season. Looking ahead, if Miami does in fact down the Rebels, then they will be returning to South Florida not for the offseason, but to face the winner of (No. 5) Oregon and (No. 1) Indiana in the National Championship Game from Hard Rock Stadium, which is where the Hurricanes call home.
Meanwhile, on the opposite sideline we find Ole Miss (13-1, 7-1 in SEC), who continues to persevere in the wake of the most high-profile coaching transition in the country, which is remarkably still making waves throughout the program. Such is the reality in Oxford, where (former HC) Lane Kiffin opted to take his talents to Baton Rouge where he will lead LSU for the foreseeable future. By now, we all know the story with Kiffin, who wished to stay and continue to coach his troops through the CFP despite leaving them at the proverbial alter to join a direct rival. However, he will say this about Kiffin: he did a tremendous job of raising the profile of a program that had mustered just two 10-win campaigns between 1972 and his arrival in 2019. From 2021 to this season, he crossed that threshold four times, with his eleven wins matching the school record that he set two years ago. However, enough about Lane, for the man filling his shoes is (Defensive Coordinator) Pete Golding, who will be given every opportunity to keep the ball rolling at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. A first-time HC, the 41-year-old is yet another member of the sizable Nick Saban coaching tree, spending six years as the Defensive Coordinator at Alabama, where he helped the Crimson Tide win a national title in 2020. Make no mistake about it, Golding is fighting wars on multiple fronts as he not only navigates through the Playoff but is attempting to maintain as many players and staffers as possible. The Transfer Portal is a treacherous tool, folks, and his predecessor was a master at manipulating it, with many around the sport believing it to be open season on this talented roster. Reportedly, (Athletic Director) Keith Carter stopped Kiffin from escaping with only a few assistants, though the latest twist in this story has revealed itself: the four offensive assistants who were to join Kiffin in Baton Rouge, including (Offensive Coordinator) Charlie Weiss Jr, have reportedly reached the deadline to transition to their new job. Apparently, Weiss has been granted an extension to call plays for tonight’s showdown in the desert, though there is no telling how such upheaval will affect the team. Granted, it didn’t appear to hinder the Rebels much in last week’s triumph over (No. 3) Georgia in a 39-34 affair in the Sugar Bowl. Trailing 21-12 at halftime after conceding a fumble return to the house, Mississippi flipped the script post intermission, outscoring the Bulldogs 27-13 over the final two periods of play. (Sophomore Tailback) Kewan Lacy rushed for a pair of touchdowns, while (Senior QB) Trinidad Chambliss took over with 362 passing yards and two scores, completing a 30-of-46 throws along the way. Momentum flipped towards Ole Miss as Lacy opened the fourth period with a 5-yard touchdown run, immediately followed by a successful 2-point conversion via Chambliss (pictured below) to (Penn State transfer) Harrison Wallace III to take a 27-24 advantage. Then, (Junior Linebacker) Suntarine Perkins strip-sacked Gunner Stockton and recovered the ball in Georgia territory, with Chambliss completing a pair of passes to reach the end zone once again. The Dawgs would respond with a 10-0 run draw level, though a 40-yard bomb from Chambliss to (Oklahoma State transfer) De’Zhaun Stribling set up (Junior Kicker) Lucas Carneiro for the game-winning 47-yard field goal. The Rebels outgained their SEC foes 473-343 in total yards on 23 first downs, while containing Georgia’s ground game (124 yards on 37 carries). Lacy finished the day with 98 rushing yards on 22 carries, while Stribling (7 catches for 122 yards) and Wallace (9 catches for 156 yards, TD) routinely found room to roam. This victory served as revenge for their lone defeat of the campaign, a 43-35 shootout that really was the inverse of the latest entry at the Sugar Bowl, as Mississippi led 35-26 heading into the fourth quarter before the Dawgs ended the day on a 17-0 run.
From a betting perspective, Ole Miss advances to tonight’s semifinal at 13-1 straight-up, but they have been rewarding against the spread as well (9-4), resulting in a net profit of 4.16 units. This is a team that has been fairly inconsistent since their stellar start on that front (3-1 ATS), covering five of their last nine outings, though they are in the midst of a 3-game stretch of covers. Between their time under Kiffin and now Golding, the Rebels are 57-19 SU and 37-31-3 ATS overall, including 15-12 ATS away from Vaught-Hemingway, 11-9 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 28-22 ATS following a win, and 15-7 ATS against all opposition residing outside the SEC. Furthermore, Mississippi is in the midst of a 5-game streak of covers after shipping 280+ passing yards, while posting a stellar 7-1-1 ledger ATS in the month of January, and five consecutive covers against ACC adversaries, with all three trends proving relevant tonight. However, they are 3-7 ATS immediately following back-to-back SUATS victories, and a dreadful 1-8-2 ATS in the second of consecutive road games. It should also be noted that the Rebs have covered five straight postseason affairs, be it a bowl or a playoff. As we touched upon earlier, these programs haven’t crossed paths on the gridiron since 1951, with Ole Miss leading the all-time series 2-1. Again, Golding & Co are familiar with the aforementioned Beck, whom they really got after in last Fall’s 28-10 upset of Georgia, who were ranked second overall in the AP Poll at the time. The Rebels held the QB to just 186 passing yards and sacked him five times for a loss of 20 yards, with (former Safety) John Saunders Jr logging an interception. On the injury front, (Junior Cornerback) Cedrick Beavers and (Junior Linebacker) Raymond Collins are out of action tonight with respective maladies, while (Sophomore Defensive Lineman) Kam Franklin and (Junior Wideout) Cayden Lee, along with (Tight Ends) Dae’Quan Wright and Caleb Odom are all listed as questionable. Looking ahead, if Ole Miss pull off yet another upset and advance to next week’s National Title Game in South Florida, then they will face either the Ducks or Hoosiers with the opportunity to claim the program’s fourth-ever natty, which would be their first since 1962.