7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Indiana -3.5, Total: 46.5
In the latter of the two CFP Semifinals, we have an all-BIG 10 affair between the (No. 5) Oregon Ducks and the unbeaten (No. 1) Indiana Hoosiers in a rematch of a tightly contested showdown from mid-October, with tonight’s winner punching their ticket to the National Championship Game next Monday. After winning the BIG 10 Championship in their first year in the conference, Oregon (13-1, 7-1 in BIG 10) may have taken a slight step backward this season, but they have nonetheless progressed come closer to reaching their ultimate goal in earning the program’s first-ever national title. This really speaks to the job that (Head Coach) Dan Lanning has done, elevating a program to heights unseen since the Chip Kelly/Mark Helfrich era in the Pacific Northwest. After spending four years at Georgia where he coordinated the defense for the 2021 National Champions, Lanning brought his recruiting prowess and connections with him to Autzen Stadium, where he has transformed these birds into a bigger, more athletic group capable of flourishing right away in a tougher league such as the BIG 10. The 39-year-old has had 25 players selected in the NFL Draft since 2022, including five first round picks, with a whopping SEVENTEEN selections coming over the past two years alone. Needless to say, replacing talent hasn’t been an issue whatsoever, which is clearly evident at Quarterback, where the Ducks are preparing to see (Redshirt Sophomore) Dante Moore become their third passer to be drafted. This is where Lanning has worked the Transfer Portal to a tee, folks; (Former QBs) Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel each arrived via the Portal and went on to become Heisman finalists, while Moore (pictured below), a former 5-star recruit who transferred from UCLA, is generating considerable draft buzz as a potential top-two pick. However, where he differs from Nix and Gabriel, who were effectively six-year starters come their final run with the program, Moore is considerably younger at just 20 years old. It’s hard not to like what you see from the Cleveland native, who has prototypical NFL size and metrics, while backing it up with plenty of production in what could very well be his lone season starting at UO. In thirteen games, Moore has completed an efficient 72.9% of his throws for 3,280 yards on 8.8 yards per attempt, with 28 touchdowns opposed to nine interceptions, while also proving to be a sneaky threat in the red zone with 184 rushing yards and two more scores. Furthermore, he has proven decisive in Oregon’s biggest contests; Moore was surgical at Penn State (29-of-39, 248 yards 3 TD), hit a clutch 24-yard throw down the sideline to set up the game-winning field goal in a windy, rainy affair at Iowa, and eviscerated USC (22-of-30, 257 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) two weeks later. Make no mistake, while the overall attack is littered with playmakers, he is ability to accurately layer his throws is a major reason when the Ducks came into the Playoff leading the nation with 91 plays of 20+ yards. While there was plenty of that in their 51-34 romp over James Madison in the first round of the CFP, it was a very different story in last week’s 23-0 shutout of (No. 4) Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl. In an affair in which points and yards were hard to come by against the most ferocious pass-rush in the country, it would be the defense that got Puddles & Co the victory; UO effectively squatted on an offense that ranked seventh in points scored (39.4) and averaged a robust 461.4 total yards, relegating the Red Raiders to zero points, a season-low 215 total yards, and forced FOUR turnovers along the way. Furthermore, Lanning’s troops logged seven tackles for loss and four sacks, with (Freshman Cornerback) Brandon Finney Jr. coming up with a pair of interceptions and a fumble recovery. As for Moore, he certainly hit some big plays downfield with 234 passing yards on 26-of-33 attempts, though he was sacked twice, intercepted once, and failed to breach the end zone as a passer or rusher for just the third time this season.
From a betting perspective, Oregon comes into tonight’s semifinal in Atlanta at 13-1 straight-up but have also been a profitable side against the spread (9-5), netting a return of 3.16 units. This is a team that has covered three of their last four outings, including that shutout of the Red Raiders (+1.5), with their lone loss ATS coming as 20.5-point favorites against James Madison, an affair in which they by as many as 35 points in the second half. Since arriving in Eugene back in 2022, Lanning is now 49-7 SU and 31-19-1 ATS overall, including 14-7 ATS away from Autzen Stadium, 3-2 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers (2-0 ATS this season), 4-1 ATS when harboring revenge, 28-16 ATS following a win, and 23-15 ATS versus conference opposition, be it from the BIG 10 or the PAC-12 before it. Furthermore, his troops have covered FIVE consecutive contests immediately after shipping fewer than 100 rushing yards in the previous game, though are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten tilts played at neutral sites, while posting a 3-8 ATS ledger following a (SU-lined) non-conference victory by ten or more points, with each of those trends proving relevant tonight. As for their CV in the CFP, this is third time that these birds have gone dancing (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS), with last week’s romp smothering of Texas Tech representing their first cover in the big dance since embarrassing (then-reigning National Champion) Florida State (59-20) in the first round of the CFP’s initial venture. It should also be noted that Puddles & Co are just 2-5 ATS over their past seven Bowls. Looking at this particular matchup, the all-time series between these schools stands level at 2-2 SU, with October’s 30-20 defeat in Eugene being the only encounter in two decades. This one was a cagey one that the hosts more or less controlled in the first half, as Lanning’s defense limited the visitors to thirteen points, three punts, and a pair of field goals at intermission, though did concede a lengthy 9-play 75-yard drive resulting in a touchdown. Conversely, it was very much a case of missed opportunities for Oregon, who were stopped on a fourth-and-one just shy of midfield on their opening possession, before Moore eventually found (Florida State transfer) Malik Benson for a 44-yard strike to tie the score at 10-10. The Ducks would march all the way down to the Hoosiers’ 18-yard line just before halftime, only for (Senior Kicker) Atticus Sappington to miss the 36-yard field goal attempt. Indiana would then swiftly move into field goal position of their own, taking the lead at the break. Sappington would make good on his next attempt in the third period to draw level once more, though the visiting side responded with another long touchdown drive, The aforementioned Finney Jr. tied the score on a 35-yard interception return to the house early in the final stanza, but their opponent retaliated with yet another lengthy drive, this one chewing up nearly seven minutes of clock, culminating in a clutch touchdown pass courtesy of (Heisman winner) Fernando Mendoza (much more on him in a bit). From there, it all fell apart for Moore & Co, as the QB was intercepted twice on his next three snaps, with the Hoosiers taking on a field goal to pull away. When it was all said and done, Oregon’s big-play attack was grounded to the tune of just 267 total yards on fourteen first downs, including 81 rushing yards on 30 carries, and converted a disappointing 3-of-14 third downs, though were successful on 3-of-4 attempts on fourth down. Moore completed 21-of-34 throws for 186 yards, a touchdown and those two picks, while suffering SIX sacks and countless pressures along the way. On the injury front, (Senior Offensive Lineman) Alex Harkey has been dealing with a lower leg issue for weeks and it showed against the Red Raiders’ fearsome defensive front, while (sixth-year Senior Wideout) Gary Bryant finally returned in the win over JMU after missing three games with a sprained ankle, though has logged just one reception for seven yards in this tournament. However, (Freshman Tailback) Jordon Davison will be out for the foreseeable future with a broken clavicle suffered in that quarterfinal. The explosive rusher led the team with fifteen rushing touchdowns and ranked second in rushing yards (667). Looking ahead, if Oregon managed to get revenge tonight then they will face the winner of (No. 10) Miami and (No. 6) Ole Miss in the National Championship Game from Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida in just over a week’s time. For those wondering, the Ducks have competed in two national finals and have met defeat on both occasions; first they were stonewalled by Auburn in a 22-19 affair in the 2011 BCS Championship Game, followed by a 42-20 drubbing at the hands of Ohio State in the first-ever CFP National Championship Game in 2015.
Meanwhile, if there was ever a program that has laid down the ideal blueprint in how to come up in this current landscape dominated by NIL and the Transfer Portal, it has to be Indiana (14-0, 12-0 in BIG 10), who in the span of just two seasons have authored the definitive rags-to-riches story. Prior to the 2024 campaign, this is a football program that owned the WORST win percentage in Division I history, winning no more than eight games in any season since 1945!!! However, everything changed with the appointment of (Head Coach) Curt Cignetti, who has been less HC and more force of nature since arriving in Bloomington. Indeed, the 64-year-old backed up his bold words in his introductory press conference (“Google me”), immediately leading IU to eleven wins and a trip to the Playoff. Now, in year two they have returned to the CFP as the top-ranked team in the Polls and have recently bested two programs that have been the gold standard for nearly two decades. So, how has Cignetti pulled this off, you ask? Well, allow us to give this guy his flowers, for he has proven to be a PHENOMENAL coach, manager, and builder of a program, working the Transfer Portal like a maestro, evidenced by the slew of players that followed him from James Madison, while instilling a toughness that hasn’t been seen in Bloomington at any point in their history. Just look at the numbers, folks; Indiana ranks third in points scored (41.6) and second in points allowed (10.3), outgaining their foes by a sizeable margin (+215.5 total yards), all the while enjoying a healthy turnover differential (+18), which compares favorably with any of the other teams comprising this tournament field. Furthermore, this is a BIG 10 team, which means that they haven’t been playing a string of cupcakes, earning FOUR victories over schools ranked in the top-10 of the AP Poll, including Illinois (63-10), Oregon (30-20), and (reigning National Champion) Ohio State in the BIG 10 Championship Game (13-10), before utterly humiliating (No. 9) Alabama in last week’s National Quarterfinal from the Rose Bowl (38-3). This one was every bit as one-sided as that final score would suggest, as the Hoosiers outgained the Crimson Tide 407-193 in total yards, 215-23 in rushing yards, 22-11 in first downs, and won the turnover battle to boot (+1). (Heisman-winning Quarterback) Fernando Mendoza was ruthlessly efficient in completing 14-of-16 passes for 192 yards and three touchdowns, while (Tailbacks) Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black rushed for 89 and 99 yards respectively with each player breaching the end zone. Defensively, Indiana logged six tackles for loss, three sacks, a pair of forced fumbles, and one recovery, holding the Tide to 3-of-11 on third down and stopping them twice on fourth down. However, it is difficult to not circle back to Mendoza (pictured below), whose meteoric ascension over the past few months has him projected by many to be the number one overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. The Cal transfer has been the biggest difference-maker for the Hoosiers in 2025, completing an efficient 72.3% of his passes for 3,172 yards with BIG 10 bests in passing touchdowns (36), yards per attempt (9.6), adjusted yards per attempt (10.91), and passer rating (184.7), earning a plethora of hardware along the way, including the Walter Camp, Maxwell, BIG 10 Offensive Player of the Year, and Heisman awards, as well as All-American First Team honors. Again, efficiency is the first thing that comes to mind when it comes to the Miami native, who has a TD/INT ratio of 36/6 this season, including a deadly 23/0 ledger within the red zone.
From a betting perspective, Indiana has advanced to tonight’s semifinal at a perfect 14-0 straight-up, but they too have returned a profit against the spread (8-5), parlaying to a net positive of 2.26 units. This is a team that has covered each of their past three outings, including that drubbing of the Crimson Tide in the Rose Bowl (-7.5). Since arriving in Bloomington last season, Cignetti is now 25-2 SU and 16-9 ATS overall, including 8-4 ATS away from Memorial Stadium, 15-7 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 3-1 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 15-7 ATS following a win, and 13-5 ATS versus all opposition residing within the BIG 10. Furthermore, his troops are 10-2 ATS when favored over an adversary that is above .500, have covered four in a row against foes with a winning record, and five of their past six immediately after shipping fewer than 100 rushing yards in the previous game, with all three trends proving relevant tonight. The Hoosiers are also 8-2 ATS when favored by fourteen or fewer points under Cignetti, while in the midst of a 5-1 stretch ATS versus an adversary fresh off an outright victory as an underdog. This current run in the big dance marks the second consecutive season in which IU has advanced to the Playoff (1-1 SUATS), with that triumph over Alabama representing their first-ever tourney victory. As we covered earlier, the all-time series between Indiana and Oregon remains tied at 2-2, with last October’s 30-20 victory proving to be the first real sign that the Hoosiers were indeed legitimate championship contenders. This was really as masterclass on both sides of the football for Cignetti & Co, as the visitors stormed into a raucous Autzen Stadium and went toe-to-toe with its inhabitants. IU held UO to just 267 total yards, 3-of-14 on third down, stopped them on an early fourth down attempt at midfield that led directly to a field goal, and came away with two interceptions in the fourth quarter. Every time that the hosts drew level, the visitors responded in kind, as Mendoza turned in one of his most impressive performances in a campaign littered with them. The Heisman completed 20-of-31 throws for 215 yards, a touchdown and interception. To combat Oregon’s big-play, quick-strike attack, the gameplan was clear for Indiana, who sought to keep their counterpart on the sidelines as much as possible, manufacturing three touchdown drives that encompassed 9+ plays for 75 yards, ultimately leading to a sizable disparity in first downs (23-14) and time of possession (33:10). The aforementioned Hemby amassed 95 yards from scrimmage and a pair of rushing scores, while Mendoza got into the ground game too, rushed for 31 yards of his own on six carries. (Senior Wideout) Elijah Sarratt, one of a plethora of players that followed Cignetti from JMU, hauled in eight receptions for 121 yards and what was the game-winning touchdown in the final stanza. As for the defense, five different players logged a sack, while (Junior Linebacker) Isaiah Jones and (Senior Safety) Louis Moore each posted an interception. On the injury front, the most notable absence is that of (Senior Defensive Lineman) Stephen Daley, who has missed last week’s triumph in the Rose Bowl after suffering a freak injury in his hotel room prior to the Playoff. Indeed, this is a BIG loss for the Hoosiers, as the Kent State transfer led the BIG 10 in tackles for loss (19.0). Looking ahead, if Indiana manage to get the better of the Ducks once more, then they will play either the Hurricanes or Rebels in the National Championship Game from South Florida, which would serve as homecoming for Mendoza, who is native of Miami.