8:00 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Packers -1.5, Total: 45.5
Another chapter in the oldest rivalry in NFL history takes place tonight at Soldier Field, as the Chicago Bears play host to the Green Bay Packers in the rubber match on Wild Card Weekend. Oh, how quickly things can change in the NFL, with the Packers (9-7-1, 2nd in NFC North) having been both the benefactor and victim of that notion this season. Less than a week before the opener, Green Bay made a seismic move with the acquisition of (All-Pro Edge) Micah Parsons in a trade with the Cowboys that caught the entire sports world off guard. Needless to say, this action was viewed as a major swing from a franchise that was considered a dark horse contender to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LX, bolstering an emerging defense with one of the league’s most influential playmakers. With that being said, 2025 has been nothing short of an uneven ride for the Cheeseheads, who some weeks have looked every bit the Super Bowl contender that they have been billed to be, while in others have played to the level of their competition and have found ways to lose games. Seriously, folks, this has been a difficult group to figure out. They opened the campaign with dominant wins over a pair of playoff teams from last season, besting Detroit (27-13) and Washington (27-18) in successive weeks, and utterly embarrassed the Steelers (35-25) in a primetime reunion with (former QB) Aaron Rodgers, though could muster a combined 30 points in losses to the Browns (10-13), Panthers (13-16), and Eagles (7-10). For those of you who put a lot of stock in entering the postseason with momentum, the Packers have precisely ZERO, with four consecutive losses to end the regular season. So, what in the name of Bart Starr has happened in Eastern Wisconsin, you ask? While it is hard to single out one issue in particular, Green Bay has been more good than great this season, which can be translated to being less than the total sum of their parts. Through seventeen games, they rank sixteenth in points scored (23.0) and eleventh in points allowed (21.2), along with fifteenth in total offense (332.5) and twelfth in total defense (311.8). Furthermore, they’ve taken care of the football, but haven’t made all that many plays defensively, leading to a net turnover differential of just +1 (12th Overall). During this 4-game losing streak, they have been hit hard by injuries, with Parsons tearing his ACL in a 34-26 loss at Denver, causing a ripple effect on that side of the ball; the Cheeseheads have shipped 28.3 points 392.0 total yards during this malaise and a 39.1% success rate on third down, with just three sacks and a pair of takeaways to boot. (Defensive Coordinator) Jeff Hafley’s unit has been bludgeoned on the ground, with opponents trampling them to the tune of 170.8 yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. The offense has struggled too, mustering a mere 17.3 points on 307.5 total yards, with the passing game dipping well below 200.0 yards (179.0), and committing five turnovers along the way. (Veteran QB) Jordan Love suffered a concussion in a cataclysmic meltdown at Soldier Field (more on that in a bit), with his backup, Malik Willis hurting his shoulder a week later against the Ravens. So, with that in mind, is it any wonder that (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur opted to rest the majority of his starters in last weekend’s 16-3 loss to the Vikings? The Packers finished that game with a scant 121 yards of offense, including -7 passing yards as just about everyone that could make a difference was standing on the sideline. We’ll have to wait and see if LaFleur’s (pictured below) gamble will pay off, though it is also impossible to ignore his uncertain future brewing in Green Bay; there have been rumors swirling for weeks that the franchise is struggling to secure a contract extension for the 46-year-old, who has been nothing short of a success during his tenure with the club, owning a win percentage of .654, with three division titles and six trips to the playoffs. Needless to say, the outcome of tonight’s showdown at Soldier Field could go a long way towards cementing his stay at Lambeau.
From a betting perspective, the Packers come into a third consecutive postseason at 9-7-1 straight-up though haven’t come close to reaching that mark against the spread (6-10-1), resulting in a net loss of 4.55 units. This is a team whose ledger ATS has become as frigid as the frozen tundra of their home turf, failing to cover any of their last four outings, though it should be noted that that listless finale in Minneapolis ended in a push (+13). Since arriving in Eastern Wisconsin back in 2019, LaFleur is now 79-45-1 SU and 67-56-2 ATS overall, including 28-29-1 ATS away from Lambeau Field, 43-43 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 26-16 ATS when harboring revenge, 19-19-1 ATS following a loss, and 23-17-1 ATS versus all opposition residing within the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops have covered eight of their last nine games immediately after being held to below 150 passing yards, though have gone winless ATS over their past eight contests following a SU defeat (0-7-1), and are in the midst of a 0-3-1 stretch ATS overall. All-time, Green Bay owns a 37-27 SU record in the playoffs, which includes a ledger of 11-6 on Wild Card Weekend. Looking at this particular matchup, the Cheeseheads hold a 109-97-6 edge in the all-time series against the Bears, which includes 30 wins in their last 37 encounters. However, they have crossed paths in the postseason on just two occasions, with the most recent coming in the 2011 NFC Championship Game, a 21-14 Packers victory at Soldier Field. On that day, the aforementioned Rodgers led a balanced attack that racked up 244 yards passing and another 120 yards rushing, possessing the football for a commanding 34:04 of action, while the defense yielded just one third down conversion on thirteen attempts and forced three turnovers, including a pick-6 courtesy of (former Nose Tackle) B.J. Raji. As for more current affairs, both tilts were tightly contested with the home team protecting their home field. Green Bay earned a 28-21 victory at Lambeau on December 7th before meeting defeat two weeks later in a 22-16 overtime battle in the Windy City. In the latter showdown, LaFleur’s charges blew a 16-6 lead late in the fourth quarter, conceding an onside kick and failing on a fourth-and-short in OT en route to meeting defeat. Love was knocked out of this one due to a concussion, while the aforementioned Wills did his best to keep them afloat. The ground game was a major component on this night, as the visitors churned out a season-high 192 rushing yards, though they struggled mightily to halt Chicago from doing the same (150 yards), which has really been an issue since the calendar transitioned to December. Getting back to Love, he is 4-2 all-time versus the Bears, completing 69.0% of his throws for an average of 200.3 yards on a healthy 9.29 net yards per attempt, with nine touchdowns opposed to a pair of interceptions. In the playoffs, he is 1-2 as the starter, though has tossed just as many picks as he has scores, with five apiece. Against the spread, the Utah State product is now 24-25 ATS overall, including 11-15 ATS on the road, 13-16 ATS as a favorite, 10-6 ATS with revenge, 5-13 ATS following a loss, 1-6 ATS coming off back-to-back defeats, and 8-8 ATS against division foes, with his worst role coming as… you guessed it, a road favorite (3-9 ATS). On the injury front, LaFleur rested many players down the stretch in an effort to get as healthy as possible for the playoffs, and why wouldn’t he with a whopping SIXTEEN of them on Injured Reserve? Indeed, five of them are starters, including the aforementioned Parsons, who tore his ACL back in mid-December. Furthermore, (Wideout) Dontayvion Wicks (concussion) is listed as doubtful, while (Offensive Lineman) Zach Tom (back) and Willis (shoulder) are each listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s affair. Looking ahead, if the Packers get revenge tonight, then they will be off to the division round for the fourth time during LaFleur’s tenure, where they would meet the top-seeded Seahawks in Seattle.
Meanwhile, that same notion about how quickly things can change in the NFL also applies to the Bears (11-6, 1st in NFC North), are reaping the rewards of finally getting it right at Head Coach. Simply put, Chicago’s coaching staff was arguably the worst in the NFL last season, as the franchise handed out a slew of pink slips throughout the campaign, relieving (former HC) Matt Eberflus with five games to go. Desperate to keep his job, (General Manager) Ryan Poles put on a full-court press to secure the signature of the most sought-after coach on the market, Ben Johnson, who ultimately decided to take over in the Windy City. For those who understand the value of a good coach, then this is the team for you. Johnson (pictured below) had been the top choice on the coaching market for three years after playing a major role in the Lions’ ascension, coordinating one of the most explosively prolific offenses in the NFL during that time. Talent wasn’t the problem in Chicago last year, folks, for this is a unit that had a plethora of playmakers in the passing and running games, while possessing the number one overall pick int he 2024 NFL Draft, Caleb Williams, who for all intents and purposes has all of the traits to be a franchise quarterback. And it is with that said that Johnson brought with him the maniac discipline and attention to detail along with the sublime playcalling that brought such success to Detroit, transforming this offense and its QB into a far more effective unit than they have been in decades. With seventeen games in the books, the Bears rank ninth in points scored (25.9), sixth in total yards (379.3), tenth in passing (234.8), third in rushing (144.5), seventh on third down (42.7%), and twelfth in the red zone (58.2%), all the while committing the fewest turnovers in the league (11). Furthermore, Williams (pictured alongside Johnson) has improved exponential from his rookie campaign, completing a lower percentage of his throws (58.1%), though getting far more bang for his buck with 3,942 yards on 6.38 net yards per attempt, 27 touchdowns opposed to just seven interceptions, and a QBR of 58.3, which is an improvement of 15.0 points. A bolstered Offensive Line has led to far fewer sacks (24) after leading the league in that category a year ago, while his progression has quickened to boot. Given Chicago’s rushing success, play-action has become a major component of the weekly gameplan, with the USC product netting 11.9 yards per completion and nine touchdowns in comparison to three interceptions on such plays. Not to be understated is also Johnson’s hiring of Dennis Allen to be his Defensive Coordinator, which has led to the most opportunistic defense in the NFL with a whopping 33 takeaways, parlaying to a differential of +22, which is also tops in the league. With that being said, if there is a weakness to be found with this team, it is on this side of the ball where they have been very much in bend but don’t break mold. The Bears rank 29th overall in total defense (361.7), 27th against the run (134.5), and 22nd on third down (40.8%), while really getting hammered in the run game over the final three weeks, shipping 171.3 yards per game during that stretch. After conceding 200 yards rushing in a wild 42-38 shootout with the 49ers, they gave up 122 in last weekend’s 19-16 finale against the Lions. As was the case when the crossed paths in mid-September, Johnson & Co had no answers for his former employers, as Detroit outgained the hosts 433-270 in total yards, 122-65 on the ground, and 331-212 through the air.
From a betting perspective, the Bears return to the playoffs after a 6-year hiatus at 11-6 straight-up, though have been nearly as rewarding against the spread too (10-6-1), returning a net profit of 3.09 units. This is a team that has been consistently strong on that front the bulk of the campaign, closing with three covers in their final four games, though failed to do so in that finale against the Lions (-3.5). In his first season in the Windy City, Johnson is now 11-6 SU and 10-6-1 ATS overall, including 4-3-1 ATS at Soldier Field, 6-3 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 0-1 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 3-2 ATS following a loss, and 2-4 ATS against all opposition residing within the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops have covered four consecutive contests immediately after a non-cover and are in the midst of a 6-1-1 stretch ATS versus an adversary with a winning record, with both trends proving relevant tonight. However, Chicago has historically struggled in the month of January, owning a 2-10 ledger ATS in the first month of the new year. All-time, this is a franchise that is 17-20 SU in the postseason, including 2-4 on Wild Card Weekend, while earning just one playoff victory since Super Bowl XLI back in 2007. As we covered earlier, the Bears have completely lost their edge in this, the oldest rivalry in NFL history, now trailing the Packers 97-109-6 SU, due in large part to losing 30 of the past 37 meetings. One of those defeats came in that aforementioned 2011 NFC Championship Game, in which (former QB) Jay Cutler was knocked out of the affair with a knee injury, derailing an attack that couldn’t get anything going against the Cheeseheads’ staunch defense. As for more recent encounters, these teams split their two meetings from this season, though both tilts could have gone either way as they were decided by a combined thirteen points. After their comeback bid fell short in the waning moments of that 28-21 loss at Lambeau, Williams & Co would succeed with their late rally in a 22-16 battle at Soldier Field, with the gunslinger forcing overtime and tossing a pair of touchdowns along the way, including a seismic game-winner from 46 yards out. Speaking of the Heisman, he is 2-2 SU against Green Bay, completing 63.5% of his throws for an average of 203.8 yards on 6.04 net yards per attempt, with five touchdowns opposed to just one interception, while rushing for a total of 125 yards on nineteen carries. As for his CV against the spread, Williams is now 18-13-1 ATS overall, including 9-5-1 ATS at home, 12-9 ATS as a dog, 5-5 ATS versus revenge, 8-8 ATS following a loss, and 5-6 ATS versus division foes. On the injury front, Johnson has a healthier team on his hands with nine players on Injured Reserve, including (Defensive Backs) Kyler Gordon (groin) and Terrell Smith (knee) alongside (Linebacker) Noah Sewell (achilles). However, there are a slew of questionables, including (Sophomore Receiver) Rome Odunze (foot), (Offensive Lineman) Ozzy Trapilo (knee), and (Safety) Jaquan Brisker (illness). Looking ahead, if the Bears manage to get their first postseason victory since 2018, then they will be hosting the highest remaining seed in the NFC, potentially setting up matchups against the Eagles, Rams, or Panthers.