1:00 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Bills -1.5, Total: 51.5
Wild Card Weekend marches on into Sunday, as the Buffalo Bills look to take advantage of what could very well be a long-awaited fortuitous path, as they begin their postseason run in Duvall against the surging Jacksonville Jaguars, who with eight straight victories are the hottest team in the NFL. For the first time in six years, the Bills (12-5, 2nd in AFC East) enter the playoffs on the road as their run of five consecutive division titles comes to an end, though the faithful in Western New York will be quick to point out that there is a silver lining this time around, for the team that has tormented them throughout that period of time is nowhere to be found. That’s right, folks, for the first time during this run of seven consecutive playoff appearances, Buffalo will not cross paths with Kansas City, who eliminated them in four of the past five years, including thrice in the AFC Championship Game. Now, what exactly does that mean for a team that while counting themselves fortunate, also enters the big dance more vulnerable than they have been recent years? The offense is still spearheaded by (reigning MVP) Josh Allen, who picked up where he left off from last season, completing an efficient 69.3% of this throws for 3,668 yards on 6.74 net yards per attempt, with 25 touchdowns opposed to ten interceptions with a QBR of 64.7, while rushing for another 579 yards and fourteen more scores, marking the third straight season in which he has run for 10+ touchdowns. Coupled with (Pro-Bowl Tailback) James Cook, who led the NFL with a career-high 1,621 yards and a dozen touchdowns of his own, this is a balanced attack that very much plays through their ground game, keeping them in manageable downs and distance. In fact, this is both the most industrious and prolific rushing offense in the league, ranking first in carries (32.2), yards (159.6), touchdowns (30), and yards per carry (5.0). Granted, that has really been by necessity rather than design, for the Receiving Corps has really struggled to make an impact, with the unheralded Kahlil Shakir serving as the only wideout to total over 40 catches and 450 yards. The biggest issue with this position group is that they have a devil of a time against man coverage, which is something that they expected to solve with the addition of (Sophomore Receiver) Keon Coleman, whom the club selected 33rd overall in last year’s Draft, though he repeatedly drawn the ire of (Head Coach) Sean McDermott and his staff, with the Michigan State product starting just six games, missing two games as a healthy scratch. (Offensive Coordinator) Joe Brady has been forced to get creative with his Tight Ends and Backfield, with just three of their top seven pass-catchers hailing from the WR room. However, the most glaring concern for the Bills lies on the other side of the football, where McDermott’s rushing defense has been one of the worst in the league. Buffalo ranks twenty-eighth in rushing yards allowed (136.1), thirtieth in yards per carry relinquished (5.1), and next-to-last in rushing touchdowns scored against them (24). A rash of injuries in the front seven compounded this flaw throughout the first half of the season, though they do deserve credit for doing a better job on this front of late; in the last six games of the campaign (5-1), they held the opposition to a reasonable 112.8 yards per game on 4.8 yards per attempt, relegating four of those teams below 85 rushing yards. With that being said, the other two teams, the Patriots (246 yards) and Browns (160 yards), manhandled the Bills in the trenches, which is certainly cause for concern as the competition rises in the playoffs.
From a betting perspective, the Bills come into Wild Card Weekend at 12-5 straight-up, but they haven’t come close to as rewarding against the spread (8-9), resulting in an overall net loss of 1.73 units. This is a team that ended the regular season on a 4-5 run ATS, which includes that romp over the woeful Jets in the finale (-13.5). Since arriving in Western New York back in 2017, McDermott is now 107-57 SU and 84-71-7 ATS overall, including 40-35 ATS away from Orchard Park, 55-48 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 50-48 ATS following a win, 17-14 ATS after scoring 35+ points in the previous game, and 55-45 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC East. Furthermore, his troops have failed to cover four consecutive contests immediately after an ATS victory, are in the midst of a 4-game losing streak ATS in road playoff games, and are just 1-5 ATS over their last six tilts following a SU win, with each of those trends proving relevant this afternoon. All-time, this is a franchise that is 8-5 SU on Wild Card Weekend, which includes five straight wins under the direction of McDermott, with the most recent being last January’s 31-7 blowout of the Broncos at Highmark Stadium, which also served as the venue for all five of those wins. On the road, Buffalo has lost five in a row away from home in this particular round of the postseason with their last victory coming in 1981. Looking at this particular matchup, the all-time series between these clubs is level at 10-10, including 2-2 in the Allen era, though it should be noted that the Bills have fallen short in each of their two encounters in the playoffs; Buffalo blew a late 27-20 lead as 8.5-point favorites in the 1996 Wild Card to meet defeat in a 30-27 affair, before McDermott’s first playoff run came to an end in the 2018 Wild Card, a 10-3 slugfest that preceded the drafting of Allen a few months later. However, when they last crossed paths, it was about as one-sided a meeting that you will find as the Bills hammered the Jaguars in a 47-10 drubbing from last season. The hosts outgained Jacksonville 388-239 in total yards, converted 6-of-11 third downs and each of their two attempts on fourth down, while winning the turnover battel 2-0. Allen completed 23-of-30 throws for 263 yards and FOUR touchdowns, while rushing for another 44 yards on six carries. Speaking of the reigning MVP, he has completed 65.4% of his passes for an average of 261.5 yards on 7.43 net yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while rushing for another 51.8 yards and two more scores in four games against the Jags. In the playoffs, Allen is 7-6 during his postseason career (0-4 on the road), with 32 total touchdowns in comparison to committing just six turnovers, accounting for 309.7 total yards of offense along the way. As for his ledger against the spread, the Wyoming product is now 71-60 ATS overall, including 34-27 ATS on the road, 52-46 ATS as a favorite, 46-40 ATS following a win, and 49-39 ATS versus non-division foes, with by far and away his best role coming as… you guessed it, a road favorite (22-16 ATS). On the injury front, McDermott has eleven players on Injured Reserve, including starting defenders such as (Defensive Tackle) Ed Oliver (bicep) and (Safety) Taylor Rapp (knee), while three more individuals have already been listed as out of action for today’s trip to Northen Florida; (Linebacker) Terrel Bernard and (Defensive Tackle) DaQuan Jones are both dealing with respective calf issues. (Veteran Edge) Joey Bosa (hamstring) and (third-year Tight End) Dalton Kincaid (knee) are both questionable after being limited throughout the week of practice with various maladies, though (veteran Defensive Tackle) Harrison Phillips (foot) should be good to go following a full practice session. Of course, Allen has been dealing with foot soreness after tweaking it a few weeks ago in Cleveland, but is also a full-go for today’s Wild Card. Looking ahead, if the Bills manage to secure their first road playoff win since 1993, then they will remain on the road against one of the Broncos, Patriots, or Steelers in next weekend’s Division Round.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars (13-4, 1st in AFC South) have just completed one of the most impressive turnarounds in NFL history, becoming only the second team to ever win thirteen games after losing just as many contests in the previous campaign. For those who bullishly stump for the indisputable fact that coaching makes a difference, then this team is for you. Given the dumpster fire that Jacksonville was under the previous regime, it was expected that (Head Coach) Liam Coen would struggle in the initial steps of a significant rebuild, but that simply hasn’t been the case as the 40-year-old transformed this group into a legitimate Super Bowl contender. So, how in the hell did he manage to do so, you ask? Well, after struggling for years, the Jags’ roster has been well-stocked with talent thanks to a wealth of premium draft picks. Essentially, the cupboard wasn’t nearly as barren as it was perceived to have been, as Coen and his coaching staff have unlocked the potential residing in many of their charges. After an uneven 5-4 start, these cats ended the regular season on an 8-game winning streak, outscoring their foes by a whopping 19.1 points per contest and outgaining them by an average of nearly 100.0 total yards!!! Coen developed the reputation of being a quarterback whisperer during his time in Tampa Bay, with his expertise on full display in Duvall, as (veteran QB) Trevor Lawrence has been playing the best football of his professional career. It has been very much a mixed bag for the number one overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, who is finally flourishing under his fifth different HC. Sure, like the rest of his teammates, it was far from a smooth start to life under Coen, but you would be hard-pressed to find a QB playing better ball than the big fella has during this win streak. In these eight games, Lawrence (pictured below alongside Coen) has completed 62.7% of his throws for 251.1 yards per game on 7.84 net yards per attempt, with nineteen touchdowns opposed to five interceptions, while rushing for another 23.4 yards per contest and five more scores along the way. The highlight of this stretch was easily a 34-20 romp over the top-seeded Broncos in Mile High, in which Lawrence hit on 23-of-36 passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for one more score, despite being the subject of intense pressure; Denver’s ferocious pass-rush sacked him on five occasions and logged an insane 23 pressures. Think about that, folks: Lawrence was pressured on over half of his drop-backs (53.5%)!!! With that being said, the exponential growth of the Jaguars hasn’t been exclusive to the offense, for the defense has really rounded into form during this run of success. (Defensive Coordinator) Anthony Campanile’s unit was living off takeaways early with thirteen in their first four games, but they have more than found their footing over the second half of the season, relinquishing 14.5 points on 257.6 total yards, including 178.9 against the pass and 78.8 versus the run, with 20 sacks and fourteen takeaways over these last eight outings. On the year, they have forced 31 turnovers (2nd Overall) with seventeen different players logging a takeaway.
From a betting perspective, the Jaguars come into Wild Card Weekend at a stellar 13-4 straight-up, but they have also been one of the most rewarding teams in the league against the spread (12-5), returning a net profit of 5.91 units. This is a team has been red-hot of late riding an 8-game winning streak coming into these playoffs, though making it all the more remarkable is that they have managed to cover ALL of them along the way, including that finale as sizable favorites against the Titans (-12.5). In his first year on the job in Northern Florida, Coen is now 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS overall, including 7-1 ATS at TIAA Bank Field, 5-3 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 9-3 ATS following a win, 3-0 ATS immediately after scoring 35+ points, and 7-4 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC South. Furthermore, his troops have covered seven games in a row following a cover, while matching that mark after a SU victory, with each of those trends proving relevant for today’s tilt. All-time, this is a franchise that hasn’t enjoyed a lot of success in the playoffs (8-8), certainly of late with just three postseason appearances since 2008. However, they are 5-2 on Wild Card Weekend, with three of those victories coming at home. The last time they performed on this stage, it was a memorable one to be sure; Jacksonville rallied back from a 27-0 deficit to stun the Chargers in a wild 31-30 affair from three years ago, ending the night on a 30-3 run. As we covered earlier, the Jags have split their 20 all-time meetings with the Bills, but are 2-0 against them in the playoffs, with both victories coming in the opening round (1996 and 2018). During the Lawrence era, they are 2-1, including 1-0 in Duvall, though when they last crossed paths, it was anything but an enjoyable trip to Orchard Park. Indeed, that aforementioned 47-10 blowout was as ugly a loss as that score would suggest, as these cats simply couldn’t find a rhythm offensively, mustering just 239 total yards, converting a dreadful 2-of-13 third downs, 4-of-8 fourth downs, and committed the only two turnovers of the night. Lawrence had a particularly tough shift at the office, finishing with a mere 178 yards on 21-of-38 passing, with a touchdown and an interception, along with four sacks, three hits, and ten pressures, taking heat on 23.3% of his dropbacks. Speaking of the former top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, he has completed 60.4% of his throws versus the Bills for an average of 203.7 yards on 5.20 net yards per attempt with two touchdowns and an interception. In the Playoffs, Lawrence is 1-1 with a comparable stat line, completing 60.5% of his passes for 252.5 yards on 5.55 net yards per attempt, with as many interceptions as touchdowns (5). As for his ledger against the spread, the Clemson product is now 37-35 ATS overall, including 18-16 ATS at home, 26-22 ATS as a dog, 22-13 ATS following a win, 14-5 ATS coming off back-to-back victories, and 26-26 ATS versus non-division foes, with by far and away his best role coming as… you guessed it, a home dog (12-8 ATS). On the injury front, Coen has one of the NFL’s healthier teams on his hands, with just five players on Injured Reserve, headlined by (third overall pick) Travis Hunter, who was shut down with a knee malady back in late October. (Veteran Guard) Patrick Mekari is out of action with an ailing back, though (fellow Offensive Lineman) Ezra Cleveland (shoulder) is questionable after practicing on a limited basis this week. As for (Cornerback) Greg Newsome II, who was acquired at the Trade Deadline from Cleveland, he should be good to go after limited work courtesy of a sore shoulder of his own. Looking ahead, if the Jaguars are triumphant this afternoon, then they will advance to next weekend’s Division Round where they will play one of the following teams: the Texans, Steelers, or Patriots.