4:30 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Broncos -1.5, Total: 46.5
The Divisional Round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs kicks off today in Mile High, where the Buffalo Bills look to make the most of what appears to be a fortuitous postseason pathway, while the top-seeded Denver Broncos are looking for revenge after last year’s early ousting on Wild Card Weekend. For the first time in six years, the Bills (12-5, 2nd in AFC East) entered the playoffs on the road as their run of five consecutive division titles came to an end, though that doesn’t appear to be a big deal as they promptly rolled into Northen Florida and upset the Jaguars in a 27-24 affair last weekend. In fact, this victory was their first postseason win on the road since 1993, snapping a run of five consecutive road losses at this stage of the campaign, all of which came during this successful era under the leadership of (Head Coach) Sean McDermott and (reigning MVP Quarterback) Josh Allen. This one was a dissertation in resiliency for Buffalo, who trailed on three separate occasions, including a 24-20 deficit with just over four minutes left in regulation. However, Allen (pictured below) would prove yet again why he is one of the best to ever do it, leading the visitors on a 9-play, 66-yard drive, in which his rushing ability saw him pick a crucial third-and one from midfield before converting a fourth-and-one from Jacksonville’s 11-yard line that turned into a 10-yard gain on a tush-push, punctuating the possession with another short lunge into the end zone, his second of the afternoon. From there, McDermott’s defense shut down shop with an interception of Trevor Lawrence on a tipped pass, forcing their second turnover of the game. Indeed, this one was all about survival for the Bills, who overcame a rushing disadvantage of -75 yards, along with multiple shots on Allen, who hit his throwing hand on an opponent’s helmet early in the day, while taking a few crunching hits to boot. Perhaps we’ve grown accustomed to the 29-year-old putting on the proverbial cape and playing Superman, but it was nonetheless a joy to watch on Sunday; Allen completed an efficient 28-of-35 throws for 273 yards and rushed for another 33 yards on eleven carries, accounting for all but 36 of his team’s total yardage and all three of their touchdowns. Making this all the more remarkable is the fact that they managed to do this on a day in which the ground game was more or less contained; the top rushing attack in the NFL across the board, Buffalo averaged 159.6 yards per game in 2025, though was held to just 79 yards on 26 carries (3.03!!!). Furthermore, a defense that had been one of the worst against the run, ranking 28th overall on that front (136.1), survived despite shipping 154 yards on the ground, forcing those two takeaways and stopping the Jags from threatening to take an early 11-point lead on a crucial fourth-and-nine from the 9-yard line. There is a prevailing narrative surrounding this team that they should be one of the favorites to reach Super Bowl LI given the absence of the Chiefs, who have been a consistent thorn in their side; indeed, Kansas City has eliminated Buffalo from the postseason four times over the past five seasons, including each of the past two AFC Championship Games. While that certainly appears to be the case given their status as a veteran group in a playoff field littered with less-experienced sides, let’s not act like they’re likely to survive and advance solely on the play of their magnificent QB, who will be counted upon to keep it up in what is expected to be a challenging trip to Mile High.
From a betting perspective, the Bills come into the division round of these playoffs at 13-5 straight-up, but they haven’t come close to as rewarding against the spread (9-9), resulting in an overall net loss of 0.63 units. This is a team that has split their last ten outings right down the middle (5-5 ATS), which includes last weekend’s wild card triumph in Duvall (+1.5). Since arriving in Western New York back in 2017, McDermott is now 108-57 SU and 85-71-7 ATS overall, including 41-35 ATS away from Orchard Park, 29-24 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers (3-0 this season), 51-48 ATS following a win, and 56-45 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC East. Furthermore, his troops just snapped a 4-game losing streak ATS in road playoff games and covered back-to-back tilts for the first time since early November with that win over the Jags. Interestingly, Buffalo have covered TEN of their past eleven meetings with foes hailing from the AFC West who own a win percentage above .400, which is precisely the task laid before them today. All-time, this is a franchise that is 22-22 SU in the postseason, including 7-9 SU in the division round, with a 2-3 SU ledger during the McDermott/Allen era. Last January, they outlasted Baltimore in a wild, 27-25 affair in which the hosts were fortunate to survive a failed 2-point conversion at the end of regulation. Looking at this particular matchup, the Bills lead the all-time series against the Broncos (24-17-1 SU), which includes six victories in their last eight meetings, along with FOUR consecutive covers at Mile High. Of course, today’s venture to Colorado is a rematch of last year’s encounter on Wild Card Weekend, a 31-7 romp courtesy of Allen & Co in Orchard Park. This one started out slowly for the hosts, who trailed 7-3 int he first quarter, though would catch fire with 28 unanswered points to end the afternoon. When it was all said and done, Buffalo outgained Denver 471-224 in total yards, including 210-79 on the ground, with Allen and Cook combining for 166 rushing yards on 31 carries. Speaking of the reigning MVP, he was met with little resistance against the visitors’ staunch defense, completing 20-of-26 throws for 272 yards and a pair of touchdowns, highlighted by a 55-yard scoring strike to (veteran Wideout) Curtis Samuel. Over the course of his career, the big fella is 3-1 versus the Broncos, completing 66.6% of his passes for an average of 248.2 yards on a healthy 8.29 net yards per attempt with seven touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while rushing for another 37.0 yards per game with three more scores. In the playoffs, Allen has been one of the most prolific QBs in NFL history despite owning an 8-6 SU ledger, posting 309.5 total yards per game with 35 total touchdowns in comparison to committing a mere six turnovers along the way. Against the spread, the Wyoming product is now 72-60 ATS overall, including 35-27 ATS on the road, 22-15 ATS as a dog, 47-40 ATS following a win, and 50-39 ATS versus non-division foes. On the injury front, McDermott has eleven players on Injured Reserve, including starting defenders such as (Defensive Tackle) Ed Oliver (bicep) and (Safety) Taylor Rapp (knee), while three more players have already been ruled out for this trip to Mile High; (Linebacker) Terrel Bernard and (Defensive Tackle) DaQuan Jones are both dealing with respective calf issues, while (veteran Safety) Jordan Poyer left last weekend’s outing with a pulled hamstring. Furthermore, the Receiving Corps was hit hard in that trip to Jacksonville, as both Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers suffered torn ACLs, ending their respective campaigns and putting their next one in peril. Looking ahead, a win today would propel the Bills to their NINTH AFC Championship Game in franchise history, including their third since 2020, where they would face either the Texans or (bitter rivals) the Patriots, whom they split two games against this season, with each team winning on the other’s home field.
Meanwhile, for the first time in a decade the Broncos (14-3, 1st in AFC West) enter the playoffs with home field advantage, which has long been a key to their postseason success. Indeed, performing in that high altitude has always made for an arduous task for opposing forces in Mile High, which should be even more relevant this season given the makeup of this team. When talking about (Head Coach) Sean Payton’s charges, the first thing that comes to mind is their defense, which is easily one of the toughest in the NFL. Denver ranks third in points allowed (18.3), second in total defense (278.1), seventh against the pass (187.1), second versus the run (91.0), second on third down (33.8%) and first overall in the red zone (42.6%), with their aggressive approach making them a difficult opponent for even the most effective attacks. (Defensive Coordinator) Vance Joseph has done a brilliant job of turning the hounds loose in this, his second stint with the franchise, presiding over a unit that has made a habit of hunting quarterbacks. The Broncos amassed a whopping 68 sacks this season, eleven more than the next closest team, pacing the league in sack percentage (10.3%), pressures (213), and QB knockdowns (80), with opposing passers completing just 57.8% of their throws (2nd Overall) and logging a scant 4.8 net yards per attempt along the way (1st Overall). Eight different players totaled at least four sacks, led by (Pro Bowl Edge) Nik Bonitto with 14.0 sacks, 28 QB hits, and 39 pressures. Furthermore, (Defensive End) Zach Allen earned All Pro-First Team honors off a brilliant campaign with seven sacks and 47 QB hits, while Second-Team All-Pros such as (Cornerback) Patrick Surtain II and (Safety) Talanoa Hufanga comprise one half of arguably the best Secondary in the NFL. With all that being said, it’s a good thing that this defense has been consistently great this season, for it has been a very different story on the offensive side of things, where (Sophomore Quarterback) Bo Nix has been something of a mixed bag. For those expecting Nix (pictured below) to make a major leap in his second year under Payton, 2025 is likely viewed as a disappointment; the 25-year-old threw more passes than any QB in the league (612), while completing fewer passes (63.4%) and throwing less touchdowns (25). Furthermore, there has been an unevenness to the overall offense all year, despite a relatively solid standing from a statistical standpoint; the Broncos rank fourteenth in points scored (23.6), tenth in total offense (349.9), eleventh in passing yards (231.2), eighteenth in net yards per attempt (6.0), eleventh in turnovers (17), eleventh on third down (41.2%), and thirteenth in the red zone (57.9%). It all reeks of good but great, though given the presence of their defense, that is all that has been required to get the job done on most days. We will say this about Nix though: he has certainly been at his best in the clutch, leading the league with SEVEN game-winning drives, five of which were fourth-quarter comebacks. Granted, one could argue that he was in fact the reason that his team was in position to require a game-winning drive in the first place, but results are results, folks. The only question in regard to today’s showdown with the Bills is this: if the game is on the line, he is facing a guy that has proven capable of doing the same thing, so will Bo blink in such a situation? We’ll have to wait and see…
From a betting perspective, the Broncos return to the playoffs with a stellar 14-3 record straight-up, though they have been far from successful against the spread (7-10), leading to a net loss of 3.64 units. This is a team that finished the regular season on a 3-5 run ATS, while failing to cover exactly half (7) of their SU victories. For those wondering, perhaps they earned the respect of the oddsmakers a little too much, as Denver was 2-7 ATS when favored by six or more points, though were 2-1 ATS in games in which they were favored by less than that threshold. Since arriving in Mile High back in 2023, Payton is now 32-20 SU and 25-26-1 ATS overall, including 15-11 ATS at Empower Field, 13-14 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 2-1 ATS when coming off a bye, 29-18 ATS following a win, and 16-17 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC West. Furthermore, his troops are in the midst of a 5-1 stretch ATS against foes with a winning record, have covered four of their past five home games versus opponent owning a successful road ledger, while matching that CV over their last five contests immediately after being held below 150 passing yards. However, there are trends working against them as well, as these ponies are just 1-4 ATS over their past five games following a cover, are a curious 1-7 ATS in their last eight outings played on Saturday, and 0-4-1 ATS in the division round of the playoffs. That last bit is important, folks, for all-time, this is a franchise that is 23-20 SU in the postseason, including 10-6 in this particular round, with a 3-3 SU resume since the turn of the century. With that in mind, the last time they competed at this stage, it was a decade ago where their 24-17 win over the Chargers kicked off their most recent Super Bowl run. As we covered earlier, the Broncos trail the all-time series against the Bills (17-24-1 SU), with just two victories in their last eight meetings, while failing to cover all but one of the past nine encounters. Of course, their 8-year playoff drought was snapped with last year’s 31-7 drubbing in Orchard Park, where Nix & Co ran into a proverbial buzz saw. This was nothing short of a learning experience for the young QB, who presided over arguably the worst offensive performance during his brief time as the starter in Denver; the visitors could muster just 224 total yards on thirteen first downs, converted 2-of-9 third downs, and were 1-of-3 on fourth down, all the while possessing the football for a season-low 18:17 of action. Nix completed 13-of-22 throws for 144 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for another 43 yards on four carries, while suffering a pair of sacks and five pressures (18.5%). Ironically, Denver looked as if they were ready to push Buffalo to the brink early with a 5-play, 70-yard touchdown drive to open the afternoon, though were held to 154 yards the rest of the way, going three-and-out on three occasions, missing a field goal, and turning it over on downs on each of their final two possessions. Getting back to the Oregon product, he is now 19-16 ATS overall, including 11-6 ATS at home, 11-9 ATS as a favorite, 12-12 ATS following a win, 7-9 ATS after back-to-back victories, and 13-10 ATS versus non-division foes, with by far and away his best role coming as… you guessed it, a home favorite (9-4 ATS). On the injury front, Payton has nine different players on Injured Reserve, chief among the being (veteran Tailback) J.K. Dobbins (foot), though apart from that, this team is as healthy as one could be this time of year. However, (Veteran Linebacker) Dre Greenlaw will miss his third consecutive contest with a nagging hamstring, while (veteran Defensive End) John Franklin-Myers is listed as questionable after being limited throughout the week of practice with a sore hip. Looking ahead, if the Broncos manage to get revenge today in Mile High, then they will be hosting next weekend’s AFC Championship Game for the eighth time in franchise history, where they will face either the Texans or the Patriots, whom they bested at this stage of the playoffs in both 2013 and 2015.