8:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Seahawks -7.5, Total: 45.5
The Division Round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs continues with the rubber match between bitter division rivals, as the resilient San Francisco 49ers look to pull another upset despite a mounting list of injuries, while the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks look to handle their business and pick up where they left off after besting them in the season finale. Indeed, there is no better term to describe these 49ers (12-5, 3rd in NFC West) than resilient, certainly not in a campaign in which they managed to persevere despite losing so many prominent playmakers along the way. So, let’s take a moment to run down the list, shall we? (Starting Quarterback) Brock Purdy, (6-time Pro-Bowl Tight End) George Kittle, (Sophomore Wide Receiver) Ricky Pearsall, (2022 Defensive Player of the Year) Nick Bosa, (4-time All-Pro Linebacker) Fred Warner, and (Rookie Edge) Mykel Williams have each missed 6+ games, while (Veteran Receiver) Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t played a down of football this season. Oh, and if that wasn’t enough, the Niners have burned through THREE different Kickers as well. With that in mind, is it any wonder that (longtime Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan has become the favorite to earn Coach of the Year honors for the first time in his career? Seriously, folks, Shanahan (pictured below) has been forced to pull out all the stops this year, what with maximizing the production while at the same time managing the workload of (2023 Offensive Player of the Year) Christian McCaffrey, who leads the NFL with 413 touches, and coaching up (Backup QB) Mac Jones, who stepped in to keep the team afloat with a 5-3 record in place of Purdy. It has also helped immensely that (Defensive Coordinator) Robert Saleh returned for a second tour of duty in Santa Clara. After flaming out with the Jets, Saleh kept his decimated defense together with rope and twine, making sure that the young guys were ready to step up in the wake of Bosa and Warner’s injuries. Think about it, for a moment: in a division that housed two other 12-win teams, the 49ers managed to do the same despite fielding the worst rushing attack in Shanahan’s tenure, ranking 24th in yards (106.9) and 30th in yards per carry (3.8), operating with a turnover differential of -6 (26th Overall), and finished the year ranked 20th in total defense (340.2), including 24th against the pass (232.4). Sure, one of the league’s easiest schedules aided them in their success, but there are a lot of teams that would have simply closed up shop and looked toward 2026. For San Francisco, that wasn’t the case, as they earned the most impressive 23-19 victory from a wilder than usual Wild Card Weekend, upsetting the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Eagles in Philadelphia. On a cold, windy evening in which both teams struggled to deal with the weather, the visitors overcame a pair of turnovers and a 65-yard disadvantage on the ground to stun the birds. This was a masterclass from Shanahan and Saleh, who grossly outcoached their counterparts who quite frankly owned a considerable edge in terms of talent. Case in point: trailing 16-10 early in the fourth quarter, Shanahan rolled the dice with a brilliant gadget play that saw (veteran Wideout) Jauan Jennings throw the go-ahead 29-yard touchdown to McCaffrey, silencing the crowd at Lincoln Financial Field. Then, after Philly briefly retook the lead following a field goal after an interception of Purdy, the QB redeemed himself with a 10-play, 66-yard drive that bled over five minutes off the clock, hitting McCaffrey for the game-winning touchdown. In the end, the visiting side outgained the hosts 361-307 in total yards and converted 6-of-11 third downs and were penalized only once for fifteen yards. Purdy was picked off twice, but was otherwise fantastic with 262 yards and two touchdowns on 18-of-31 passing, while McCaffrey totaled 114 yards from scrimmage. (Journeyman Wideout) Demarcus Robinson reeled in six receptions for 111 yards and the opening touchdown, while (veteran Linebacker) Eric Kendricks, on his fourth different team in as many years, led the defensive effort with ten tackles, two of which were for a loss, and a key pass breakup late in the affair.
From a betting perspective, the 49ers come into this divisional round of the playoffs at 13-5 straight-up, but have also been a rewarding side against the spread (11-7), returning a net profit of 2.90 units. This is a team that bounced back nicely after failing to cover back-to-back games for only the second time all season, winning outright as a 5.5-point underdog in last weekend’s triumph in Philadelphia. Since arriving in Santa Clara back in 2017, Shanahan is now 91-71 SU and 82-78-2 ATS overall, including 45-34 ATS away from Levi’s Stadium, 30-28 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 39-35 ATS when harboring revenge, 45-42 ATS following a win, and 28-27 ATS versus all opposition residing within the NFC West. Furthermore, his troops have covered FIVE consecutive road contests, along with five in a row immediately after amassing 350+ total yards in the previous game, though it should be noted that their ledger in the month of January hasn’t been very good on this front, with a 1-6 ledger ATS in such games. All-time, San Francisco is one of the most successful franchises in playoff history (40-25 SU), including 20-8 SU in the divisional round, where they are also 3-5 SU away from home. During the Shanahan era, they are an unbeaten 4-0 at this stage of the postseason, which includes a 13-10 upset of the Packers at Lambeau Field back in 2022. Looking at this particular matchup, the Niners trail the all-time series with the Seahawks (24-32 SU), though are level in eighteen meetings under Shanahan, including 7-2 SU over the past nine years. This includes their lone encounter in the playoffs, a one-sided 41-23 romp on Wild Card Weekend in 2023 in which outscored the birds 25-6 in the second half. San Fran outgained Seattle 505-332 in total yards as Purdy erupted for 332 passing yards, three touchdowns and a rushing score to boot, while McCaffrey amassed 136 yards from scrimmage and a score of his own on seventeen touches. Speaking of the last pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, he is 6-2 SU over the course of his career against the ‘Hawks, completing an efficient 68.8% of his throws for an average of 243.0 yards on a healthy 8.15 net yards per attempt, with fifteen touchdowns opposed to six interceptions. In the playoffs, the Iowa State product is 5-2 SU with 229.2 yards per game on 7.07 net yards per attempt, nine total touchdowns and four turnovers. Against the spread, Purdy is now 27-25 ATS overall, including 13-10 ATS on the road, 1-4 ATS as a dog, 16-19 ATS following a win, and 9-8 ATS versus division foes, with by far and away his worst role coming as… you guessed it, a road dog (1-2 ATS). On the injury front, we touched upon how difficult it has been for Shanahan & Co this season, as there are currently eleven players residing on Injured Reserve, including the aforementioned Bosa (knee) and Warner (ankle), who have been joined by Kittle, who reportedly tore his achilles in last weekend’s triumph in Philly. Furthermore, (Sophomore Wideout) Ricky Pearsall has been limited over the past few weeks with a bulky knee, while (Defensive End) Keion White is in the same boat with a tender groin. And then there is (12-time Pro Bowl Left Tackle) Trent Williams, who returned to action after missing the season finale with an ailing hamstring, with the 37-year-old likely to be managed carefully throughout the week of practice. Looking ahead, if the 49ers manage to pull yet another upset, then they will be on to their TWENTIETH NFC Championship Game in franchise history, most of any team in the conference, where they will face either the Bears or (bitter rivals) the Rams, whom they split two meetings against this season.
Meanwhile, for the fourth time in franchise history, the Seahawks (14-3, 1st in NFC West) own the number one overall seed in the conference and thus have earned homefield throughout their side of the playoff bracket. This is a team that has made a major leap in their second season under the direction of (Head Coach) Mike MacDonald, emerging from the toughest division in the league thanks in large part to a late season push in which they finished on a 7-game winning streak that included decisive victories over their direct competition within the division, the Rams (38-37) and the 49ers (13-3). In 2025, MacDonald (pictured below) has done nothing but further cement his reputation as one of the sharpest defensive minds in the game, leading a team that ranked among the league’s best in a plethora of categories; Seattle sits first in points allowed (17.2), sixth in total defense (185.8), tenth against the pass (193.9), third versus the run (91.9), sixth in takeaways (25), first on third down (32.1%), and fifth within the red zone (50.0%). This unit has three All-Pros and just as many Pro-Bowlers, with (Defensive Linemen) Leonard Williams and Demarcus Lawrence combining for 13.0 sacks, 42 QB hits, 20 tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles, with the latter even reaching the end zone himself twice. However, defense alone hasn’t propelled these birds to their current standing, for MacDonald and (longtime General Manager) John Schneider revolutionized the offensive side of the football with a series of moves that would go on to define this season. First, they brought in (Offensive Coordinator) Kint Kubiak to organize and call plays for a unit that was routinely played below their potential. Second, they parted ways with (former Pro-Bowl Wideout) D.K. Metcalf, paving the way for (All-Pro Receiver) Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s meteoric rise. Third, they traded away (veteran Quarterback) Geno Smith and signed (reigning Most Improved Player) Sam Darnold after the former third overall pick enjoyed a renaissance in Minnesota. To say that all of these moves were home runs is an understatement, folks, as the Seahawks rank third in points scored (28.4) and eighth in total offense (351.3), which has brought a balance to the Pacific Northwest that had been lacking for quite some time. Darnold, who has now won more games over the past two seasons than any other player at his position (28), has been strong with 4,048 yards and 25 touchdowns opposed to fourteen interceptions, while Smith-Njigba led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards and ten touchdowns on 119 receptions. No player was more productive with ball in his hands than JSN, who averaged a stellar 14.5 yards per touch in 2025. Getting back to Darnold, there will continue to be a contingent (likely in New York) that will never truly trust the 28-year-old, but this is now two seasons of high-quality QB play from the USC product, which should bode well for this playoff run. As for Kubiak, the 38-year-old has skyrocketed to the top of what has become a crowded coaching cycle, stamping his name as the most sought-after offensive playcaller, particularly of those without prior experience as a HC.
From a betting perspective, the Seahawks emerge from their first-round bye at 14-3 straight-up and a stellar 12-5 against the spread, returning a net profit of 5.91 units. This is a team that has been a strong play throughout the campaign, though they did cool off a bit down the stretch, finishing the regular season on a 4-3 run ATS, including that punctuation against the Niners in Santa Clara (-2.5). Since arriving in the Pacific Northwest last season, MacDonald is now 24-10 SU and 18-14-2 ATS overall, including 6-10 ATS at Lumen Field, 11-8 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 2-0 ATS when coming off a bye week, 8-4 ATS versus an adversary harboring revenge, 15-7 ATS following a win, and 7-5 against all opposition residing within the NFC West. Furthermore, his troops have covered FIVE consecutive contests immediately after relegating a foe below 90 rushing yards in the previous game and are 6-3 ATS following a showdown with a division rival, though are in the midst of a 4-game losing streak ATS at home against opponents with a winning road record, with each of those trends proving relevant tonight. Interestingly, Seattle has covered FIVE straight outings that have come right after facing San Francisco, though this will be the first time during that particular sample set that they will be facing the 49ers once again, let alone with a bye week placed between them. All-time, this is a franchise that is 17-19 SU in the playoffs, including 4-9 SU in the divisional round, with a 3-0 SU ledger when those games have been contested in the Pacific Northwest. It should also be noted that each of those instances came with the birds owning the number one pick in the NFC and thus being afforded the luxury of a first-round bye. As we covered earlier, the ‘Hawks own a 32-24 SU edge in the all-time series against the Niners, which includes a 1-1 CV in the playoffs. While they were hammered in that aforementioned 41-23 affair in Santa Clara, the most prominent encounter was easily the 2013 NFC Championship Game, in which the Seahawks earned a 22-17 victory to propel them to Super Bowl XLVIII, where they would go on to claim the franchise’s only Lombardi Trophy. Interestingly, the road team has covered six straight meetings in this series, including each of the last four played at Lumen Field, while the favorite is 7-2 ATS over the past nine matchups. This season, each team managed to steal a win on the other’s home turf, with San Francisco earning a 17-13 victory in the season opener before Seattle returned the favor in the finale. Both of these games were defensive struggles, though they really couldn’t have been more different in how they played out. In the opener, which was as close to as fully healthy that the 49ers have been all year, the visitors produced 384 total yards, though committed a pair of turnovers to make things too close for comfort, while the finale saw MacDonald’s defense relegate them a mere 173 yards of offense. In those two meetings, Darnold completed an efficient 73.4% of his throws for an average of just 174.0 yards on 6.67 net yards per attempt, with zero touchdowns and one lost fumble. Speaking of the USC product, he struggled wildly in his first-ever playoff start, a 27-9 drubbing at the hands of the Rams last year, in which he was sacked NINE times for a loss of 82 yards with an interception and a lost fumble. Against the spread, Darnold is now 39-36 ATS overall, including 21-17 ATS at home, 19-16 ATS as a favorite, 16-14 ATS versus revenge, 24-16 ATS following a win, 15-10 ATS when coming off back-to-back victories, and 11-16 ATS against division foes. On the injury front, MacDonald has by far and away a healthier side than his counterpart, with just seven players on Injured Reserve, though keep an eye on the status of (Offensive Linemen) Charles Cross and Josh Jones. The former is their starting Left Tackle and missed the final three games of the regular season with a lingering hamstring strain, while the latter has been dealing with a sore ankle. Furthermore, (versatile Defensive Back) Coby Bryant has been limited with a bulky knee, which could seriously effect one of the best Secondaries in the NFL given his utilization as a veritable chess piece in coverage. Looking ahead, if the Seahawks hold serve at home, then they will be hosting the NFC Championship Game next weekend against either the Bears or (division rival) the Rams, whom they split two regular season meetings with this year with each side winning on their home field.