6:30 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Rams -4.5, Total: 48.5
The Divisional Round of the 2025 Playoffs comes to a close tonight in what is expected to be a frigid, wintery affair in the City of Wind, as the Los Angeles Rams travel to Soldier Field to battle the cardiac Chicago Bears, who are fresh off yet another fourth-quarter comeback, this time against their bitter nemesis. For a sizable portion of this season, the Rams (12-5, 2nd in NFC West) were considered to be the favorite to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LX, though back-to-back late primetime losses saw them lose their grip on the number one seed in the conference, forcing them to hit the road for this playoff run. Granted, anyone who has paid attention to Los Angeles since moving into SoFi Stadium will tell you that homefield advantage hasn’t necessarily been as such, with this balanced group full capable of getting the job done away from home. Indeed, (Head Coach) Sean McVay and (General Manager) Les Snead have assembled a strong blend of youth and experience, which is really ironic given the franchise’s previous model of success that was built around trading away premium draft picks in an attempt to land veteran stars. With being said, credit this brain trust for being able to pivot when necessary, which has been the case with a young defense littered with emerging talent. (Defensive Coordinator) Chris Shula has earned plenty of admirers on the coaching market, as his unit ranks tenth in points allowed (20.4), fifth in takeaways (26), seventh on third down (36.3%), and third in the red zone (46.2%). Furthermore, (reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year) Jared Verse is off to a second consecutive Pro-Bowl, joined by (fellow Edge-Rusher) Byron Young, with the duo combining for 19.5 sacks, 56 QB hits, and 23 tackles for loss. however, the biggest story this year has been the transformation of the offense from a spread-oriented passing game to a more physical approach utilizing heavier personnel, which has created a wealth of mismatches for McVay to exploit. Simply put, this has been the most prolific attack in the NFL, folks, ranking first overall in points scored (30.5), total offense (403.5), passing yards (276.9), and first downs (15), all the while committing the fourth-fewest turnovers (15). At the helm is (veteran Quarterback) Matthew Stafford, who at the age of 37 is playing arguably the best football of his career. After rumors of his departure via retirement or free agency, Stafford (pictured below) has thrived within this new setup, leading the NFL in both passing yards (4,707) and passing touchdowns (46), turning in the most efficient campaign of his career. In fact, the former number one overall pick put together an 8-game stretch earlier this season in which he had tossed 25 scores without a single interception, propelling him to the top of the MVP race. If he does in fact claim that award, it would serve as validation for a QB that has been rather underappreciated throughout his career; remarkably, Stafford has earned just three Pro-Bowl nods and a single All-Pro selection throughout his 17-year career, despite reaching sixth on the all-time passing yards list in 2025 (64,516). Granted, it wasn’t until this season that he pushed his all-time record as a starter (120-118-1) above .500, which is arguably the biggest reason for that prevailing narrative. With all that being said, he and his teammates were very nearly sent home early in last weekend’s trip to Charlotte, where they survived a 34-31 nailbiter against the Panthers. You would think that the Rams would have been on guard given that they were defeated by this very same opponent back in late November, in which Stafford produced his worst performance of the campaign, committing three turnovers, including a pick-6. However, the visitors started off red-hot in building a 14-0 lead after their first two possessions, with Stafford hitting (All-Pro First Team Receiver) Puka Nacua for scores on each drive. While it looked like they were on the verge of running Carolina off their own field, the tables turned as Stafford hurt the index finger on throwing hand, throwing the rest of affair into the proverbial blender. The hosts would eventually take as 24-20 lead early in the fourth quarter before Los Angeles struck back with a touchdown of their own, only for the cats to retaliate with another touchdown on the ensuing possession. Trailing 31-27 with just over two minutes left in regulation, McVay’s side marched 71 yards downfield in seven plays, as Stafford completed 6-of-7 throws for 71 yards, culminating in a 19-yard strike to (Tight End) Colby Parkinson, effectively ending the game. When it was all said and done, the Rams outgained their opponent 411-333 in total yards, though were a disappointing 3-of-13 on third down and 1-of-2 on fourth down, while getting flagged nine times for a loss of 83 yards, which was a stunning turn of events for a team that had been penalized fewer times than any the league. Stafford completed 24-of-42 passes for 304 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception, while Nacua hauled in ten of eighteen targets for 111 yards and those two scores, while rushing for another fourteen yards on three carries.
From a betting perspective, the Rams advance to this Divisional Round at 13-5 straight-up, while nearly matching that mark against the spread (12-6), equating to a net return of 4.80 units. This is a team that has been remarkably consistent throughout the campaign without suffering back-to-back losses ATS at any point, which is notable given that they failed to cover in last weekend’s close call in Charlotte (-10). Since arriving in the City of Angels back in 2017, McVay is now 101-62 SU and 88-69-5 ATS overall, including 45-34 ATS away from SoFi Stadium, 60-48 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 49-32 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 48-48 ATS following a win, and 52-50 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the NFC West. Furthermore, his troops have covered seven of their last eight games contested in the month of January, five of their past six tilts versus foes with a win percentage north of .500, and are 9-3 ATS opposite an adversary coming off an outright victory as an underdog, with all three trends proving relevant tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is 28-29 SU in the playoffs, including 12-10 SU in the Divisional Round, with their last victory at this stage coming in 2022, when they upset the Buccaneers in the Sunshine State, en route to eventually claiming their second-ever Lombardi Trophy. Of course, this round of the postseason is where their run came to an end last Winter, as Stafford & Co very nearly upended the Eagles on a snowy night in Philly. Los Angeles cut the deficit to one point following a safety heading into the fourth quarter, though would fumble the ball away on back-to-back possessions, leading to a pair of field goals for the hosts. Later, after Stafford hit Parkinson for a short touchdown to make it 28-22 with 2:48 left in regulation, the visitors forced a punt, drove all the way down to the birds’ 22-yard line, though they would march no further as Stafford’s final attempt to Nacua sailed over his mark. Looking at this particular matchup, the Rams trail the all-time series with the Bears, 39-55-3 SU, which includes a 3-2 ledger during the McVay era, though they haven’t tasted victory in the Windy City since 2003, losing four consecutive meetings at Soldier Field. When they crossed paths there a year ago, the visitors couldn’t find the end zone until early in the fourth period after a short touchdown run courtesy of (Tailback) Kyren Williams, though the ensuing 2-point conversion failed, and they would concede a 36-yard rushing score the other way less than three minutes later. (Former Kicker) Joshua Karty would drill his fourth field goal of the day to cut the deficit to six points with just over eight minutes left in regulation, but that would be it for LA, who would go three-and-out before getting the ball back and watching Stafford get intercepted on a Hail Mary. This one boiled down to turnovers and missed opportunities, folks, as Los Angeles not only settled for four field goals (two of which from within 37 yards), but missed one from 43 yards, dropped the ball on that 2-point conversion and lost the turnover battle 2-0. Stafford was 20-of-29 for 224 passing yards but was responsible for both giveaways, while Williams rushed for 94 yards and that score on nineteen carries. Speaking of the veteran gunslinger, he is very familiar with the Bears given his time spent leading the Lions, owning a 12-10 ledger versus Chicago with a completion percentage of 64.2%, with an average of 272.0 yards per game on 6.88 net yards per attempt, with 35 touchdowns in comparison to 24 interceptions. In the playoffs, the Georgia product is 6-5, with 22 scores opposed to seven interceptions, with four game-winning drives and three fourth quarter comebacks. Against the spread, Stafford is now 116-125 ATS overall, including 60-60 ATS on the road, 62-65 ATS as a favorite, 60-54 ATS versus revenge, 56-62 ATS following a win, 23-36 ATS after back-to-back victories, and 76-82 ATS against non-division foes, with by far and away his best role coming as… you guessed it, a road favorite (5-3 ATS). On the injury front, McVay & Co have one of the healthier teams left in the playoffs, with just four players on Injured Reserve, including (Offensive Tackle) Rob Havenstein (ankle) and (Cornerback) Ahkello Witherspoon (shoulder). However, all eyes will be on Stafford and his right index finger, which he injured on a follow-through midway through last weekend’s win over Carolina. He was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice and should be fine, though is performance against the Panthers fell off dramatically after it initially happened. Looking ahead, if the Rams manage to survive this trip to frigid Soldier Field, then they will advance to next Sunday’s NFC Championship Game, where they will face either the Seahawks or 49ers in an all-NFC West affair. Los Angeles split the season series against both foes, though it should be noted that if they face San Francisco, then that potential rubber match will take place at SoFi.
Meanwhile, the Bears (11-6, 1st in NFC North), are reaping the rewards of finally getting it right at Head Coach, winning the division for the first time since 2018 and tasting victory in the playoffs after a 15-year drought. Desperate to keep his job after a chaotic campaign littered with in-season firings, (General Manager) Ryan Poles put on a full-court press to secure the signature of the most sought-after coach on the market, Ben Johnson, who ultimately decided to take over in the Windy City. For those who understand the value of a good coach, then this is the team for you. Johnson had been the top choice on the coaching market for three years after playing a major role in the Lions’ ascension, coordinating one of the most explosively prolific offenses in the NFL during that time. Talent wasn’t the problem in Chicago last year, folks, for this is a unit that had a plethora of playmakers in the passing and running games, while possessing the number one overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Caleb Williams, who possesses all of the traits to be a franchise quarterback. And it is with that said that Johnson brought with him the manic discipline and attention to detail along with the sublime playcalling that brought such success to Detroit, transforming this offense and its QB into a far more effective unit than they have been in decades. The Bears rank ninth in points scored (25.9), sixth in total yards (379.3), tenth in passing (234.8), third in rushing (144.5), seventh on third down (42.7%), and twelfth in the red zone (58.2%), all the while committing the fewest turnovers in the league (11). Furthermore, Williams (pictured below) has improved exponentially from his rookie campaign, completing a lower percentage of his throws (58.1%), though getting far more bang for his buck with 3,942 yards on 6.38 net yards per attempt, 27 touchdowns opposed to just seven interceptions, and a QBR of 58.3, which is an improvement of 15.0 points. A bolstered Offensive Line has led to far fewer sacks (24) after leading the league in that category a year ago, while his progression has quickened to boot. Given Chicago’s rushing success, play-action has become a major component of the weekly gameplan, with the USC product netting 11.9 yards per completion and nine touchdowns in comparison to three interceptions on such plays. However, the most impressive part of his development is how he has continued to shine in the toughest of moments, leading the NFL with a staggering SIX fourth-quarter comebacks. In the final stanza and overtime, Williams has completed 56.2% of his throws for an average of 67.1 yards per game on 7.56 yards per attempt and 13.4 yards per completion, with ten touchdowns opposed to a pair of interceptions, while rushing for another 129 yards and one more score to boot. Unsurprisingly, he added a seventh such comeback in last weekend’s wild 31-27 rally to eliminate their bitter rivals, the Packers, in what served as the largest postseason comeback in franchise history. Trailing 21-3 at halftime, the Bears outscored the visitors 28-6 in the second half as Williams found (veteran Wideout) D.J. Moore for the game-winning 25-yard touchdown, marking the second time that the duo tormented Green Bay in the span of a month. Chicago outgained their longtime nemesis 445-421 in total yards despite losing the turnover battle 0-2 and getting stopped on fourth down four times. With that being said, the hosts did manage to convert twice on fourth in the second half, while also benefitting immensely from the Cheeseheads self-inflicted wounds, as (veteran Kicker) Brandon McManus missed a pair of field goals and an extra point, opening the door for Williams & Co to climb back into the affair. Williams finished the night 24-of-48 passing for 361 yards with two touchdowns and interceptions apiece, while (Rookie Tight End) Coleston Loveland reeling in eight of fifteen targets for 137 yards. That win marked the first time since 2007 that Chicago beat Green Bay twice in a season, with Williams becoming their first QB to do so since 1990, while that triumph stands as their first postseason victory against them since 1941.
From a betting perspective, the Bears advance to the Divisional Round at 12-6 straight-up, though have also been a rewarding side against the spread too (11-6-1), returning a net profit of 3.90 units. This is a team that has also been remarkably consistent on that front this season, posting an 11-4-1 ledger ATS after failing to cover their first two outings. In his first season in the Windy City, Johnson is now 12-6 SU and 11-6-1 ATS overall, including 5-3-1 ATS at Soldier Field, 7-3 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 1-1 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 4-2 ATS following a loss, and 8-2-1 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops have covered six consecutive contests immediately after amassing 350+ total yards in the previous game and are 7-1-1 ATS against an adversary with a winning record, though in the midst of a 3-10 stretch ATS in the month of January and have covered just three of their past ten postseason affairs. All-time, this is a franchise that is 18-20 SU in the postseason, including 6-8 in the Divisional Round, with their last success at this stage coming back in 2011 when they bested the Seahawks in a 35-34 affair. As we touched upon earlier, Chicago owns a 55-39-3 SU historical edge over Los Angeles, though they remain level at 1-1 in the playoffs, with their last encounter taking place back in 1986, where the Bears pitched a 24-0 shutout in the NFC Championship Game, before advancing to Super Bowl XX where they would earn their first and only Lombardi Trophy. As for more recent meetings, the home team has covered five straight contests, with the favorite covering each of the past four tilts. Chicago has won and covered each of the last four played at Soldier Field, which includes that aforementioned 24-18 affair from last season. In a game in which the hosts were outgained 322-264 in total yards, converted 3-of-9 third downs, and committed ten penalties for a loss of 84 yards, they managed to repeatedly stiffen in the red zone, holding the Rams to a quartet of field goals, while forcing the only two turnovers of the day. Williams was 17-of-23 passing for 157 yards and a 9-yard touchdown strike to Moore, while (Tailback) D’Andre Swift erupted for 170 yards from scrimmage on 23 touches, highlighted by a 36-yard rushing touchdown early in the final stanza to reassert their lead. Getting back to Williams, he is now 19-13-1 ATS overall, including 10-5-1 ATS at home, 13-9 ATS as a dog, 6-5 ATS versus revenge, 11-7-1 ATS following a win, and 14-7-1 ATS versus non-division foes. On the injury front, Johnson has nine players currently on Injured Reserve, chief among them being (veteran Linebacker) T.J. Edwards, who suffered an ugly lower leg malady during that win over the Packers. However, the rest of the roster is largely healthy, with the only name in doubt being that of (journeyman Cornerback) Nick McCloud, who started four games this season out of fifteen appearances. Looking ahead, if the Bears once again hold serve at home, then they will be off to their first NFC Championship Game in fifteen years, where they will face either the Seahawks or the 49ers, which will see them travel to the Pacific Northwest to battle the former or remaining at home to host the latter, who they fell to in a wildly entertaining 42-38 shootout just three weeks ago.