3:00 PM EST, ESPN/ABC – Spread: Patriots -3, Total: 40.5
The Divisional Round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs continues into Sunday, as the surging Houston Texans look to extend their win streak to eleven games as they travel to Foxborough, where the New England Patriots stand one game away from advancing to the AFC Championship Game. There isn’t a team left in this postseason field with more momentum at the backs than the Texans (12-5, 2nd in AFC South), who have rounded into form as winners of TEN consecutive contests. Indeed, this is a team that looked far from a playoff side early in the campaign, particularly getting off to a disappointing 3-5 start and losing (third-year Quarterback) C.J. Stroud for three weeks due to a midseason concussion. However, whereas most teams would crumble without their franchise QB, Houston used the situation as an opportunity to galvanize themselves. So, how in the hell did (Head Coach) DeMeco Ryans right the proverbial ship, you ask? Well, (Backup QB) Davis Mills certainly proved to be more than an adequate insurance policy, winning all three of his starts, even leading a fourth quarter comeback over Jacksonville in a 36-29 victory. The offense, which had been completely renovated from a tactical and personnel approach, finally seemed to come together during this stretch too, which allowed Stroud to hit the ground running once he returned from concussion protocol. During this streak, (Offensive Coordinator) Nick Caley’s unit looked far more cohesive than they were earlier in the season, averaging 26.2 points on 332.2 total yards, converting a much healthier 41.4% of their third downs, up from 32.4% through the first eight games. While those figures aren’t likely to blow anyone away, it really has been all that has been required of them given how consistently stellar their defense has been in 2025. There have been times this year in which it appears that this unit has won games in spite of their offense, ranking second in points allowed (17.4), first in total defense (277.2), sixth against the pass (183.5), fourth versus the run (93.7), sixth on third down (36.2%), third in takeaways (29), and tied for seventh in sacks (47). Ryans and (General Manager) Nick Caserio have done a tremendous job of stocking this group with talent at all three levels, what with three players earning Pro Bowl nods, including (veteran Linebacker) Azeez Al-Shaair (103 Tackles, 2 interceptions), (Edge) Will Anderson Jr (12.0 sacks, 3 forced fumbles), and (Cornerback) Derek Stingley Jr (4 interceptions, 15 pass deflections), with the latter two enjoying First Team All-Pro honors. Furthermore, (veteran Edge) Danielle Hunter (15.0 sacks, 3 forced fumbles) was selected to the All-Pro second team. During this 10-game winning streak, the defense has permitted 18.0 points on 274.9 total yards per game, while holding eight of those adversaries below 21 points and 330 total yards. It was more of the same in last Monday’s 30-6 drubbing of the Steelers, which served as the Texans first-ever road playoff victory. Granted, this one was dicey early as Stroud committed turnovers on three of his first six drives, though those mistakes would continue to be pardoned as it became clear that Pittsburgh could do NOTHING to move the ball against Ryans and Burke’s defense. On the night, the visitors permitted a mere 175 total yards on thirteen first downs, 63 rushing yards on eighteen carries, and 2-of-14 on third down, while sending (4-time MVP QB) Aaron Rodgers into expected retirement with four sacks and a pair of takeaways of the veteran, including a pick-6 courtesy of (Cornerback) Calen Bullock on what was likely the final pass of his career. Seriously, Houston pressured Rodgers thirteen times (35.1%) despite blitzing on just four occasions, which equates to roughly 8.0% of their defensive snaps, hitting him six more times, with three hurries, and forcing eight bad throws to boot. Hunter and Anderson (pictured together below) combined for 1.5 sacks and six pressures, while the latter’s strip sack early int he fourth quarter led to a fumble return from (veteran Defensive Tackle) Sheldon Rankins, the first of two defensive touchdowns for the Texans.
From a betting perspective, the Texans advance to the Divisional Round of the Playoffs at 13-5 straight-up, though they have also become a rewarding side against the spread (10-8), netting a small return of 1.17 units. This is a team that has been in red-hot form of late with not only with ten consecutive victories, but they have also covered seven of them along the way, including that aforementioned elimination of the Steelers last Monday night (-3). Since returning to the club that drafted him nearly two decades ago, Ryans is now 35-21 SU and 28-27-1 ATS overall, including 14-12 ATS away from NRG Stadium, 15-10 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 15-16 ATS following a win, and 19-17 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC South. Furthermore, his troops have covered eight consecutive contests immediately after amassing 350 total yards in the previous tilt, five in a row versus an adversary owning a winning record, and are 31-18-4 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. However, Houston is just 2-6 ATS over their last eight outings after relegating an opponent below 250 yards of offense, while covering just two of their past seven games when playing on a Sunday after competing on the previous Monday, with both trends proving relevant today. All-time, this is a franchise that is just 7-8 SU in the postseason, though this is the stage where their runs have historically come to an end; the Texans are 0-6 SU in the Divisional Round (2-4 ATS), including two defeats in Foxborough (2013 and 2017). Looking at this particular matchup, Houston trails the all-time series with New England, 4-11 SU, including 0-2 in the playoffs, though it should be noted that they have won three of the past four meetings, covering each of them along the way. When they crossed paths last season at Gillette Stadium, Ryans’ charges jumped all over the Pats in a one-sided 41-21 victory. The visitors raced out to a 14-0 lead on the strength of two touchdown passes courtesy of Stroud, before eventually building a 27-7 advantage in the third quarter. When it was all said and done, the Texans outgained the hosts 368-291 in total yards, including 192-82 in rushing yards. Stroud completed 20-of-31 throws for 192 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, with (former Wideout and current Patriot) Stefon Diggs (6 catches, 77 yards) hauling in a 10-yard score on the opening possession of the second half. (Veteran Tailback) Joe Mixon, who has missed all of 2025 with a foot injury, amassed 132 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns on just fifteen touches. With that being said, this one was another advert for that defense, which forced FOUR turnovers and logged a quartet of sacks, limiting their foe to 3-of-13 conversions on third down. Anderson had himself a day, folks, totaling THREE sacks and four pressures, while Hunter also got himself a sack and forced a fumble to boot. Getting back to Stroud, he is 3-2 SU in the playoffs, completing 66.0% of his throws for an average of 245.2 yards on 7.09 net yards per attempt, with five touchdowns opposed to a pair of interceptions. As for his ledger against the spread, the Ohio State product is now 25-25 ATS overall, including 13-12 ATS on the road, 11-12 ATS as a dog, 16-15 ATS following a win, 9-9 ATS coming off back-to-back victories, and 19-17 ATS versus non-division foes. On the injury front, Ryans & Co have eight different players on Injured Reserve, most notably (Defensive Linemen) Mario Edwards (knee) and Folorunso Fatukasi (shoulder), while Al-Shaair (knee), (Cornerback) Kamari Lassiter (ankle), (Offensive Lineman) Tytus Howard (ankle), and the aforementioned Rankins (elbow) are all listed as questionable with various maladies. Keep an eye on the status of (2-time Pro-Bowl Receiver) Nico Collins, who left that win in Pittsburgh after suffering a concussion, leaving his fate in the hands of the league’s concussion protocol, which as we saw with Stroud earlier this season, places his availability in serious doubt. Looking ahead, if the Texans pull the upset in Foxborough, then they will either head to Mile High to battle the Broncos or return to NRG to host the Bills in next weekend’s AFC Championship Game. For those wondering, Houston narrowly met defeat against Denver in an 18-15 bloodbath, before besting Buffalo in a 23-19 defensive slugfest three weeks later.
Meanwhile, after spending five years lost in the proverbial wilderness in the post-Tom Brady era, the Patriots (14-3, 1st in AFC East) have returned with a vengeance, led by a group of familiar faces along with a plethora of fresh, young ones. After a dreadful 4-13 finish last season, (Longtime Owner) Robert Kraft opted to blow it all up just one year into an extensive rebuild, handing the keys to the franchise to (Head Coach) Mike Vrabel, who dove back into the coaching cycle after taking a year off following his shocking dismissal from the Titans. Of course, Vrabel (pictured below) is New England through and through; the 50-year-old spent eight seasons as a Linebacker for the Pats during the early years of their dynasty, winning three Super Bowls (2001, 20023, and 2004) along the way. If anyone could get this team back on track, it was the big fella, who immediately set about remolding the coaching staff and roster in his image, bringing (Offensive Coordinator) Josh McDaniels back for a third tour of duty in Foxborough, while using the club’s ample resources in free agency to bolster the defense, offensive line, and skill positions. All of this was done in an attempt to create a stronger supporting cast around (Sophomore Quarterback) Drake Maye, the third overall pick in last year’s stellar draft class, who started eleven games as a rookie with varying results. All season long we have seen what kind of an impact a good coaching staff can make, with these Patriots no different as they joined this year’s Jaguars as the only teams in NFL history to go from losing thirteen games one season to winning at least as many a year later. New England has ranked in the top-10 on both sides of the football, sitting second in points scored (28.8) and third in total offense (379.3), along with fourth in points allowed (18.8) and eighth in total defense (295.2), all the while committing the ninth-fewest turnovers in the league (16). Maye (pictured below alongside Vrabel) has been nothing short of a revelation this season, leading the NFL in completion percentage (72.0%), yards per attempt (8.9), adjusted yards per attempt (9.46), net yards per attempt (7.78), passer rating (113.5), and QBR (77.2), while throwing for 4,385 yards, 31 touchdowns, and just eight interceptions. Furthermore, he continues to be adept at using his legs and athleticism to make and extend plays, rushing for another 450 yards and four more scores, bringing a dimension to the overall attack that has rarely been seen in New England. However, there were still those that questioned both he and his team’s credentials coming into last weekend’s playoff showdown with the Chargers, which didn’t sound all that far-fetched considering his youth and inexperience, along with the fact that much of the Pats’ success in 2025 came against one of the weakest schedules in the league; indeed, they faced an opponent with a winning record on just four occasions, two of which came against Buffalo, with a 2-2 ledger in those affairs. Fortunately, those concerns were put to rest of the time being with a 16-3 thumping of Los Angeles, which really wasn’t as close as that score would lead you to believe. The hosts outgained the Bolts 381-207 in total yards, including 146-87 on the ground, though fell victim to their own mistakes on more than one occasion. Vrabel’s troops committed a pair of turnovers and were forced to settle for field goals after being halted in the red zone on three occasions. Maye was 17-of-29 passing for 268 yards, with a touchdown and an interception, while rushing for another 66 yards on ten carries, though he fumbled twice, losing one along the way. With that being said, this one came down the Patriots’ defense, which manhandled (opposing QB) Justin Herbert, racking up six sacks, five hits, and a whopping thirteen pressures, which equates to 29.5% of his dropbacks. As a result, the visitors were a dismal 1-of-10 on third down and 1-of-3 on fourth down, with Herbert losing a fumble on a strip-sack of his own on the Chargers’ penultimate possession of the night. (Edge) K’Lavon Chaisson and (Defensive Tackle) Milton Williams, who were both acquired in free agency, each logged a pair of sacks, with the former forcing said fumble.
From a betting perspective, the Patriots move on to Divisional Round at 15-3 straight-up, but have also been very rewarding against the spread (13-5), equating to a stellar return of 6.81 units, which is the most of any team in remaining in this playoff field. This is a group that has covered each of their past four outings, including last weekend’s slugfest with the Chargers (-3.5). Since returning to Foxborough, Vrabel is now 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS overall, including 6-4 ATS at Gillette Stadium, 9-3 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 4-0 ATS when harboring revenge, 10-4 ATS following a win, and 8-4 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC East. Furthermore, dating back to time in Tennessee, his troops have covered TEN of their past twelve tilts when coming off a non-division affair and facing an adversary fresh off a double-digit victory, and ELEVEN of thirteen games following a SU win and set to battle a foe coming off a win of 10+ points, with both trends proving relevant this afternoon. New England is also 16-3 SU at home in the postseason when the temperature at kickoff is below 32 degrees Fahrenheit since 2001. For those wondering, last weekend’s battle with the Bolts came close to matching that criteria (35 degrees). All-time, this is a franchise that is certainly no stranger to playoff success at 38-22 SU, including a stellar 16-6 in the Divisional Round. As we touched upon earlier, they have bested the Texans twice at this particular stage, eliminating them in 2013 (41-28) and 2017 (34-16), both of which took place in Foxborough. Throughout their respective histories, these teams have crossed paths on fifteen occasions, with the Pats owning an 11-4 SU edge, including 7-1 SU at Gillette Stadium. Furthermore, they are 6-2 ATS over the last eight encounters in the Northeast, with the home team covering four of the past five meetings. However, that was NOT the case in that aforementioned 41-21 blowout from last season, in which the hosts seriously took it on the chin. In what was the first start of his professional career, Maye was faced with the arduous challenge of matching wits with Houston’s formidable defense, and it went about how everyone expected it to; the UNC product completed 20-of-33 throws for 243 yards, three touchdowns and a pair of interceptions, while rushing for another 38 yards and lost a fumble. Granted, the majority of that yardage came in the second half after his side fell behind by 20 points, but there were clearly glimpses of his potential against such a difficult opponent. Against the spread, Maye is now 19-10 ATS overall, including 9-7 ATS at home, 9-3 ATS as a favorite, 9-3 ATS with revenge, 11-5 ATS following a win, 8-3 ATS coming off back-to-back victories, and 11-9 ATS versus non-division foes. While his QB doesn’t have much history against this particular opponent or any prior experience in the postseason, that is NOT the case when it comes to Vrabel, who is very familiar with the Texans given his time coaching the Titans in the AFC South. From 2018 to 2023, the big fella went 6-6 against Houston, while his ledger in the playoffs clocking in at 2-3, with a trip to the 2019 AFC Championship Game. On the injury front, Vrabel & Co have eleven players currently on Injured Reserve, though do have their share of concerns heading into this contest; (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Chrisitan Gonzalez (concussion), (Tight End) Hunter Henry (knee), (Linebacker) Anfernee Jennings (knee), and (Edge) Harold Landry (knee) have all be limited throughout the week of practice with various maladies, while (Offensive Linemen) Morgan Moses (knee) and Thayer Munford (knee) have been held out altogether, which is notable given the defense awaiting them. Looking ahead, if the Patriots handle their business, then they will be off to their first AFC Championship Game since 2019, where they could travel to Denver to battle the Broncos, or remain in Foxborough for the rubber match against (bitter division rival) the Bills.