3:00 PM EST, CBS/Paramount – Spread: Patriots -4.5, Total: 42.5
We have reached the proverbial Final Four of the 2025 NFL Playoffs, as the New England Patriots travel to Mile High to battle the top-seeded Denver Broncos, who must play the hand that they’ve been dealt without their starting quarterback in this AFC Championship Game from Empower Field. After spending five years lost in the proverbial wilderness in the post-Tom Brady era, the Patriots (14-3, 1st in AFC East) have returned with a vengeance, led by a group of familiar faces along with a plethora of fresh, young ones. After a dreadful 4-13 finish last season, (Longtime Owner) Robert Kraft opted to blow it all up just one year into an extensive rebuild, handing the keys to the franchise to (Head Coach) Mike Vrabel, who dove back into the coaching cycle after taking a year off following his shocking dismissal from the Titans. Of course, Vrabel (pictured below) is New England through and through; the 50-year-old spent eight seasons as a Linebacker for the Pats during the early years of their dynasty, winning three Super Bowls (2001, 20023, and 2004) along the way. If anyone could get this team back on track, it was the big fella, who immediately set about remolding the coaching staff and roster in his image, bringing (Offensive Coordinator) Josh McDaniels back for a third tour of duty in Foxborough, while using the club’s ample resources in free agency to bolster the defense, offensive line, and skill positions. All of this was done in an attempt to create a stronger supporting cast around (Sophomore Quarterback) Drake Maye, the third overall pick in last year’s stellar draft class, who started eleven games as a rookie with varying results. All season long we have seen what kind of an impact a good coaching staff can make, with these Patriots no different as they joined this year’s Jaguars as the only teams in NFL history to go from losing thirteen games one season to winning at least as many a year later. New England has ranked in the top-10 on both sides of the football, sitting second in points scored (28.8) and third in total offense (379.3), along with fourth in points allowed (18.8) and eighth in total defense (295.2), all the while committing the ninth-fewest turnovers in the league (16). Maye (pictured below alongside Vrabel) has been nothing short of a revelation this season, leading the NFL in completion percentage (72.0%), yards per attempt (8.9), adjusted yards per attempt (9.46), net yards per attempt (7.78), passer rating (113.5), and QBR (77.2), while throwing for 4,385 yards, 31 touchdowns, and just eight interceptions. Furthermore, he continues to be adept at using his legs and athleticism to make and extend plays, rushing for another 450 yards and four more scores, bringing a dimension to the overall attack that has rarely been seen in New England. However, there were still those that questioned both he and his team’s credentials coming into these playoffs, which didn’t sound all that far-fetched considering his youth and inexperience, along with the fact that much of the Pats’ success in 2025 came against one of the weakest schedules in the league; indeed, they faced an opponent with a winning record on just four occasions, two of which came against Buffalo, with a 2-2 ledger in those affairs. Fortunately, those concerns have been put to rest during this postseason run with successive victories over the Chargers (16-3) and Texans (28-16). Sure, they have certainly made their share of mistakes in committing FIVE turnovers in these two wins, but New England compensated for that with hellacious play from their defense. Simply put, neither Los Angeles nor Houston could crack their code, as they were relegated to a scant 9.5 points on 224.0 total yards, including 156.5 yards against the pass and 67.5 yards versus the run, permitting a 29.6% rate on third down, logging nine sacks, and forcing SIX turnovers themselves. Hell, they generated FIVE takeaways in last weekend’s triumph over the Texans, including a 26-yard interception return to the house courtesy of (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Marcus Jones, in what was a snowy, windy, afternoon in Foxborough. Maye may have committed three turnovers (1 INT, 2 fumbles lost), but he was otherwise productive with three passing touchdowns on 16-of-27 completions for 179 yards against the number one defense in the NFL.
From a betting perspective, the Patriots advance to their first AFC Championship Game since 2018 at 16-3 straight-up, but have also been very rewarding against the spread (14-5), equating to a stellar return of 7.60 units, which is the most of any team in remaining in this playoff field. This is a group that has covered each of their past five outings, including last weekend’s turnover-fest with the Texans (-3.5). Since returning to Foxborough, Vrabel is now 16-3 SU and 14-5 ATS overall, including 7-1 ATS away from Gillette Stadium, 10-3 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 11-4 ATS following a win, and 9-4 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC East. Furthermore, his troops have covered five consecutive contests against competition hailing from the AFC, four in a row immediately following a cover, and four successive tilts after a SU victory, with all three trends proving relevant this afternoon. With that being said, New England is only 1-8 ATS over their last nine games as a non-division, conference road favorite of ten or fewer points, though it should be noted that they are 1-1 ATS in such games under Vrabel’s watch this season. All-time, this is a franchise that is certainly no stranger to playoff success at 39-22 SU, including a stellar 11-4 in the Conference Championship Round. Interestingly, the Pats are just 4-3 SU at this stage when they’ve been forced to depart Foxborough, with two of those defeats coming at Mile High (2013 and 2015). Looking at this particular matchup, the Patriots trail the all-time series against the Broncos, 24-31 SU, which includes a 1-4 ledger in the playoffs, with all four losses coming in Denver. Interestingly, the road team has covered each of the past four meetings. However, New England did claim their most recent encounter, a 26-23 affair at Empower Field on Christmas Eve of 2023, which saw the visitors erupt for 20 points in the third quarter. Granted, the hosts would draw level with just under three minutes remaining in regulation, though the Pats would swiftly move 43 yards downfield to set up (former Kicker) Chad Ryland’s game-winner from 56 yards out, which sailed right between the sticks. In what was (legendary HC) Bill Belichick’s penultimate road game with the franchise, his troops pulled this one out despite logging just 289 total yards on a dozen first downs, rushing for a scant 59 yards on 21 carries, and converting 3-of-13 third downs. (Veteran Wideout) DeMario Douglas hauled in five of eight targets for 74 yards, while (veteran Defensive Tackle) Christian Barmore dominated in the trenches with three sacks, a pair of tackles for loss, and a forced fumble. Getting back to the present, their current QB is certainly learning the playoffs are a vastly different animal from the regular season, as he has completed 58.9% of his throws for an average of 223.5 yards per game on 5.73 net yards per attempt, with four touchdowns opposed to two interceptions, while rushing for another 38.0 yards on 5.4 yards per carry. It is worth noting that he has been sacked TEN times through two postseason outings, which doesn’t necessarily feel conducive to success. Against the spread, the North Carolina product is now 20-10 ATS overall, including 10-3 ATS on the road, 10-3 ATS as a favorite, 12-5 ATS following a win, 9-3 ATS coming off back-to-back victories, and 12-9 ATS versus non-division foes. On the injury front, Vrabel & Co currently have ten players on Injured Reserve, though none of them are starters. The defense is dealing with some bumps and bruises, as (Cornerback) Carlton Davis (concussion), (Linebackers) Christian Eliss (hip) and Marte Mapu (hip), and (Edge) Harold Landry (knee), along with (Offensive Tackle) Thayer Munford (knee) are all listed as questionable with various maladies. Looking ahead, if the Patriots earn their first-ever playoff victory in Mile High, then they will be off to the franchise’s TWELFTH Super Bowl against either the Seahawks or Rams, which is ironic given that their last Lombardi Trophy came at the expense of the latter in Super Bowl LIII (13-3).
Meanwhile, the Broncos (14-3, 1st in AFC West) return to the playoffs after a 9-year hiatus, though it has proven to be nothing short of bittersweet after the events of last weekend’s controversial triumph at Mile High. Under nearly any other circumstance, besting the Bills in a wild, 33-30 overtime affair would be cause for celebration in Denver, though they price that was paid to reach today’s AFC Championship Game is likely too steep. So, what happened in that fateful showdown at Empower Field, you ask? Well, after the most controversial completed catch-turned-interception in recent history, the hosts swiftly moved into field goal range tanks to successive Pass Interference penalties compiling a whopping 51 yards of field position. However, during the latter of the two plays, (Sophomore Quarterback) Bo Nix suffered a fracture to his right ankle, ending his postseason run after just one game. Simply put, this is a SEISMIC turn of events for a team with a real opportunity to claim the franchise’s fourth Lombardi Trophy. While Nix has gone through his ups and downs in this, his second season as the starting QB, his presence in the clutch has been undeniable, logging five fourth-quarter comebacks and an NFL-best SEVEN game-winning drives, eight if you add last weekend’s triumph to his ledger. The 25-year-old was fundamental to that victory, completing 26-of-46 throws for 279 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for another 29 yards on ten carries. Now, (Head Coach) Sean Payton & Co must turn to his backup, (journeyman) Jarrett Stidham, to fill the void. So, with that in mind, just who the hell is Stidham (pictured below), you ask? Well, the 29-year-old was a fourth-round pick of the Patriots back in 2019 and followed the aforementioned McDaniels to Las Vegas when he became the Raiders’ HC in 2022. He would make just two starts in five appearances with the Silver & Black, before making the move to Denver as Payton’s preferred insurance policy under center a year later. Again, he would start just two games in 2023, with only four appearances over the past two seasons. In fact, Stidham is the first QB to make his first-ever playoff start in a conference championship game since 1972!!! Make no mistake, Payton may have said all the right things over the past week, but this is nevertheless a massive challenge for his team. Fortunately, he has one of the toughest defenses in the NFL at his back. Denver ranks third in points allowed (18.3), second in total defense (278.1), seventh against the pass (187.1), second versus the run (91.0), second on third down (33.8%) and first overall in the red zone (42.6%), with their aggressive approach making them a difficult opponent for even the most effective attacks. (Defensive Coordinator) Vance Joseph has done a brilliant job of turning the hounds loose in this, his second stint with the franchise, presiding over a unit that has made a habit of hunting quarterbacks. The Broncos amassed a whopping 68 sacks this season, eleven more than the next closest team, pacing the league in sack percentage (10.3%), pressures (213), and QB knockdowns (80), with opposing passers completing just 57.8% of their throws (2nd Overall) and logging a scant 4.8 net yards per attempt along the way (1st Overall). Eight different players totaled at least four sacks, led by (Pro Bowl Edge) Nik Bonitto with 14.0 sacks, 28 QB hits, and 39 pressures. Furthermore, (Defensive End) Zach Allen earned All Pro-First Team honors off a brilliant campaign with seven sacks and 47 QB hits, while Second-Team All-Pros such as (Cornerback) Patrick Surtain II and (Safety) Talanoa Hufanga comprise one half of arguably the best Secondary in the NFL.
From a betting perspective, the Broncos advance to their first AFC Championship Game since 2016 with a stellar 15-3 record straight-up, though they have been far from successful against the spread (8-10), leading to a net loss of 2.80 units. This is a team that comes into today’s showdown on a 4-5 run ATS, while failing to cover just below half (7) of their SU victories. For those wondering, perhaps they earned the respect of the public a little too much, as Denver was 2-7 ATS when favored by six or more points, though were 3-1 ATS in games in which they were favored by less than that threshold. With that being said, they are very much underdogs this afternoon (4-1 ATS), with each of those covers doubling as outright victories. Since arriving in Mile High back in 2023, Payton is now 33-20 SU and 26-26-1 ATS overall, including 16-11 ATS at Empower Field, 12-12 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 30-18 ATS following a win, and 17-17 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC West. Furthermore, his troops are in the midst of a 6-1 stretch ATS against foes with a winning record and have covered four of their past five home games versus opponent owning a successful road ledger. However, Denver has failed to cover four consecutive contests after amassing 250+ passing yards in the previous game, are 1-4 ATS immediately after being held below 90 rushing yards, and are 2-5-1 ATS after a tilt in which they shipped north of 150 rushing yards to their opponent, with all three of those trends proving relevant this afternoon. All-time, this is a franchise that is 24-20 SU in the postseason, including a stellar 8-2 in the Conference Championship Round, with a 2-1 SU resume since the turn of the century. Interestingly, their last two appearances at this penultimate stage of the playoffs have come against none other than New England, whom they bested in 2014 (26-16) and 2016 (20-18) in Mile High. As we covered earlier, the Broncos own a 31-24 SU edge against the Patriots all-time, which includes a 4-1 ledger in the playoffs. For those wondering, the underdog has covered five of the past seven meetings between these clubs. They have crossed paths just once since Payton took over, with his side coming up short in that aforementioned 26-23 affair from late 2023. Denver clung to a 9-3 lead heading into halftime, though were utterly blindsided by a 20-0 run in the third quarter due in large part to an inept stretch in which they punted on four straight possessions, losing fifteen yards away. However, the hosts would strike back with successive touchdown drives of 83 and 79 yards, with (former QB) Russell Wilson tossing a pair of touchdowns and 2-point conversions. Unfortunately, that would be about it for the home side, who couldn’t keep the visitors from moving into field goal range, shipping a 27-yard completion on a third-and-three to reach midfield, eventually falling victim to a 56-yard kick to effectively end the game. Neither combatant managed to crack 290 total yards in what was very much a defensive struggle, though Payton was left ruing his team’s missed opportunities; after recovering a fumble on the opening drive to set up shop at the Pats’ 6-yard line, the Broncos turned it over on downs four plays later, before losing a fumble of their own deep into enemy territory in the second period, and missed a 57-yard field goal attempt just before halftime. On the injury front, we covered at length the situation with Nix and the predicament that it has placed Payton & Co in, though he is far from the only player at risk this afternoon. (Rookie Wideout) Pat Bryant (concussion), (Offensive Lineman) Alex Forsyth (ankle), and (Receiver) Troy Franklin (hamstring) are all listed as questionable with various maladies, while (veteran Tailback) J.K. Dobbins could make his return from a 6-week absence due to a high ankle sprain. The 27-year-old has certainly dealt with his share of injuries throughout his career, missing the entire 2021 campaign and all but one game of 2023 with respective ACL tears, though rushed for a career-high 905 yards in thirteen contests with the Chargers last year. This season, he has churned out 772 yards and four touchdowns in ten appearances, with his potential return serving as a boost for an attack that is likely to lean heavily on the ground game given the situation under center. Looking ahead, if the Broncos manage to persevere in the face of adversity and advance to their first Super Bowl since 2016, then they will face the winner of the Seahawks and Rams in two weeks’ time at Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara.