7:30 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Knicks -3.5, Total: 219.5
With the Trade Deadline and All-Star Break in the rearview mirror, the push for the playoffs picks up steam as the second half of the campaign kicks off with a postseason rematch between two of the top three teams in the Eastern Conference, as the surging Detroit Pistons travel to Madison Square Garden looking for a third consecutive victory over the New York Knicks. With 53 games in the books, there really hasn’t been a better story in the Association than the Pistons (40-13, 1st in Eastern Conference), who not only sit atop the East courtesy of a comfortable 5.5-game lead, but also own the best record in the NBA regardless of conference. Simply put, this is a franchise that has come a LONG way since their dreadful 14-68 campaign from just two years ago in which they lost a ridiculous 28 consecutive contests, living in infamy as the longest such streak in NBA history. So, how have the turned it around to this point, you ask? Well, let’s give (Head Coach) J.B. Bickerstaff and (General Manager) Trajan Langdon their flowers, for they have done a tremendous job making the necessary changes to both the roster and their philosophy in a relatively short period of time. Development has been a major key for one of the younger teams in the league, as a number of their recent first-round picks have really shown serious growth, none more so than (All-Star Guard) Cade Cunningham, the number one overall selection in the 2021 NBA Draft. The Oklahoma State product has emerged as the fulcrum for just about everything that Detroit has been doing on the offensive end of the court, averaging 25.3 points on 46.2% shooting, along with 5.6 rebounds, 9.6 assists, and 1.5 steals. At 6′-6″ and 220 lbs, Cunningham (pictured below) is the kind of big Point Guard that league covets these days, with his size and athleticism creating mismatches across the board. With that being said, he is just one of six players averaging in double-figures for points in this rotation, with the likes of (veteran Swingmen) such as Duncan Robinson and Tobias Harris offering precious spacing to a group that had once lacked it altogether. However, the real key to the Pistons’ success has been their play on defense, which certainly keeps with the tradition of this franchise; Detroit ranks third overall in points allowed (109.3), second in field goal percentage (44.1%), fifth in three-point percentage (34.7%), third in two-point percentage (51.1%), first in assists permitted (22.9), in steals (10.6), in blocks (6.3), and turnovers (17.4). Furthermore, their turnover rate (15.2%) and offensive rebound percentage (30.6%) rank first and third respectively, meaning that they thrive off of creating extra scoring opportunities, whether in transition or easy second-chance shots at the rim.
From a betting perspective, the Pistons are 29-24 ATS thus far, resulting in a net profit of 2.36 units, serving as the only team residing within the Central Division to post a positive return. This is a team that has covered five of seven outings heading into the All-Star Break, including each of their past three contests, the most recent being a comfortable 113-95 thrashing of the Raptors north of the border (+1). Detroit is 6-4 ATS over their last ten games away from Little Caesars Arena, while really proving their value as an underdog; on the campaign, Bickerstaff’s troops are a stellar 9-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, including a perfect 8-0 ATS as a dog of 3.5 points or less, which is once again the case tonight. Furthermore, they are in the midst of a 7-1 run ATS on the road against an adversary with a home win percentage better than .600, though there are a number of trends working against them too. The Pistons have failed to cover four consecutive contests immediately after a SU victory by 10+ points, are 1-6 ATS in their past seven outings versus a foe with a win percentage above .600, and have matched that ledger when pitted against opposition owning a winning record. Looking at this particular matchup, the Pistons have won and covered six of their past ten meetings with the Knicks, including each of their two encounters from this season and did so by a landslide. In their two previous matchups, both of which took place in the Motor City, the hosts pummeled New York by a whopping 239-170, the first of which saw them a home dog of 1.5 points. The home side shot an impressive 53.8% from the field and 46.5% from three in those games, outscoring the visitors by an average margin of 18.0 points on that latter front, while simultaneously limiting the Knicks to a mere 38.6% shooting overall along the way. Cunningham really shined in these tilts, folks, averaging 25.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 10.0 assists on strong 53.6/57.1/75.0 shooting splits. It appears that the public has taken note of those blowouts, as roughly 60% of all wagers placed upon the spread are backing the road team to flex their muscles tonight in MSG, with a slightly larger share of the total sum of money being wagered following suit. On the injury front, Bickerstaff & Co figure to be light in the front court due to the suspensions following a brawl against the Hornets in the penultimate affair before the Break, with (Centers) Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart barred from action tonight. Duren is serving the final game of his suspension, while Stewart will be on the proverbial shelf for another five contests. Together, the big fellas average a cumulative 27.7 points, 15.6 rebounds, and 2.5 rebounds, playing no small role in Detroit’s strong play around the rim. Looking ahead, the Pistons will remain on the road for a trip to division rival, the Bulls, before returning home for a 3-game stretch including two of the west’s most powerful sides, the Spurs and the (defending NBA Champion) Thunder.
Meanwhile, the Knicks (35-20, 3rd in Eastern Conference) were the odds-on favorites to represent the East in the NBA Finals for a variety of reasons, ranging from their appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals last May to the injuries and exodus of players that ravaged their direct competition in the standings. However, this season has seen New York endure a learning curve under (new Head Coach) Mike Brown, who has brought new ideas and philosophies to the Big Apple, for better or for worse. One of the major criticisms of his predecessor, Tom Thibodeau, was that the rotation was consistently too short, with the starting five frequently running out of gas come the playoffs. To his credit, Brown (pictured below) has extended the rotation plenty, what with eleven different players logging over 13.0 minutes per game, leading to seven among them averaging double-figures in scoring. However, the changes that he initially made to the defense went over like a wet fart in church, leading the two-time Coach of the Year to revert back to what the Knicks did best on that end of the court: walling off the paint, while gambling on the perimeter. Roughly 44.5% of their opponents’ shot attempts have come from beyond the arc, which is the seventh-highest percentage in the NBA, a figure that has only increased over the past month. As a result, this is a team that ranks in the top-10 on both offense and defense, averaging 118.0 points per game (8th Overall) and shipping 111.9 (6th Overall), along with fifth in turnover percentage (11.9%), fifth in offensive rebound percentage (29.5%), and third in defensive rebound rate (76.5%). The Knickerbockers got off to a strong 23-9 start, winning the league’s second annual In-Season Tournament along the way, but went on to drop nine of their next eleven outings, falling down the standings of the East, only to slowly pull themselves back up over the past month (10-2). During this particular stretch, they have battered the opposition an average margin of 17.5 points, shooting 48.7% from the floor and 38.9% from downtown, dishing out a healthy 29.3 assists and committing just 13.1 turnovers. Pulling the strings is once again (All-Star Point Guard) Jalen Brunson, who leads the team with a robust 27.0 points per game on 47.0% shooting overall and 37.4% from three, along with 3.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists.
From a betting perspective, the Knicks are a middling 26-25 ATS thus far, though definitely thundered into the All-Star Break winning and covered ten out of twelve games, including ten in a row at one point. This has definitely been a team that has run hot and cold this season, stringing together separate stretches of 10-2 and 10-1 ATS, while also authoring a particularly dismal run in which they covered just three out of eighteen contests. New York is 6-4 ATS in their last ten tilts at Madison Square Garden, while covering eight of their past ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Brown’s troops have covered six consecutive home contests versus a foe with a road win percentage of north of .600, while owning a 5-1 ledger ATS when enjoying more than three days of rest, with both trends proving relevant tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, the Knickerbockers are 4-6 SU in their last ten meetings with the Pistons, though those four victories all came in last Spring’s triumph in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs. As we touched upon earlier, they have been less successful in their two previous meetings from this season; New York was outscored by an average of 34.5 points, due in large part to a pair of miserable displays on the offensive end of the hardwood. Indeed, there really is nowhere to go up but up for them in this case, as the visitors shot 38.6% from the field, 33.3% from beyond the arc, while barely dishing out more assists (18.5) than turnovers committed (17.5), all the while getting pummeled on the glass by a margin of -11.5 rebounds, including -3.5 on the offensive boards. The aforementioned Brunson really had a difficult time in these affairs, posting averages of just 18.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.0 assists, while committing 3.0 turnovers to boot, with a subpar shooting splits of 34.1/14.3/77.8. Simply put, this is a far cry from the effort he put forth in their postseason encounter from last April; Brunson torched Detroit to the tune of 31.5 points on 43.6% shooting from the field, including 33.3% from downtown, with 4.0 rebounds, 8.2 assists, and just 2.7 turnovers along the way. With all that in mind, the public isn’t very bullish on the Knicks in this one, even with venue shifting to MSG, as approximately 40% of all wagers placed upon the spread are backing the hosts, with an even smaller share of the total money being wagered thus far following suit. On the injury front, Brown & Co are easily the healthier side, though (veteran Swingman) O.G. Anunoby is listed as questionable with a tender toe, while (key reserve) Miles McBride will miss his tenth straight game with a lingering ankle malady. The 25-year-old Guard is in the midst of his most prolific campaign, averaging career-highs in points (12.9) and three-point percentage (42.0%). Looking ahead, the Knicks will host the Rockets over the weekend before embarking on 3-game road trip against the Bulls, Cavaliers, and Bucks.