6:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Michigan -2.5, Total: 148.5
National Championship contenders collide in the nation’s capital, as the top-ranked (No. 1) Michigan Wolverines cross paths with the (No. 3) Duke Blue Devils in what is both a natty rematch over three decades in the making and a potential preview of April’s national final. With the looming madness of March nearly among us, you would be hard-pressed to find a more impressive team thus far than Michigan (25-1, 15-1 in BIG 10), who have bludgeoned their way to the top ranking in the country for the first time in thirteen years. Making their ascent all the more significant is the fact that very few pundits outside of Ann Arbor forecasted this group being so dominant. Sure, they came into the campaign at seventh in the preseason poll, but what (Head Coach) Dusty May’s troops have been doing this winter has been wholly unexpected. So, let’s take a moment to run down the numbers, shall we? Michigan fourth in the nation in points scored (90.6), eighth in field goal percentage (51.4%), third in two-point percentage (62.6%), tenth in rebounds (41.5), third in assists (19.5), fourth in blocks (6.1), second in field goal percentage allowed (37.1%), third in two-point percentage defense (42.8%), eleventh in three-point percentage shipped (29.2%), and ninth in assists permitted (10.3). Furthermore, they have logged ten wins by 30+ points (1st in Division I), while only four of their victories have come by three or fewer points. They have also faced the fifth-toughest schedule with a 6-0 ledger versus ranked opponent coming by an average of 21.0 points. The secret to their success has been size, size, and more size. During his tenure at Florida Atlantic, May enjoyed a lot of success utilizing a double pivot consisting of essentially two centers interplaying off each other. The 49-year-old incorporated that approach in his first season in Ann Arbor to great effect, leading him to dive even further down that proverbial rabbit with not two, but THREE bigs on the court at the same time. Indeed, the Wolverines hit the Transfer Portal hard and brought in three different players that had played predominantly Center at their previous stops, adding Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson, and Aday Mara (pictured together below) from UAB, Illinois, and UCLA respectively, with each transfer 6′-9″ or taller. Their collective athleticism and smarts have allowed them to thrive despite opponents trying to exploit perceived mismatches on switches from screens, while their own spacing hasn’t suffered much at all. With such size and length, few teams have managed to make a dent in their interior defense, let alone make much headway on the glass; Michigan is +9.8 in total rebounds, including +8.9 in conference play, while enjoying a +99 advantage on the defensive glass, meaning that you are in all likelihood getting one shot attempt per possession against them. This was the case in Tuesday’s 91-80 victory at (No. 7) Purdue, where the visitors sealed off the painted area, leaving the hosts to shoot just 39.1% from the field, including 19-of-43 (44.2%) on two-pointers. The Wolverines bullied the Boilermakers on the glass (36-28), while netting half of their 34 attempts within the arc and draining a lethal 13-of-23 from beyond it (56.5%). On the night, the visiting side outscored their adversary 15 points in this regard, despite Purdue enjoying a dozen more field goal attempts thanks to fourteen turnovers. Six players scored in double-figures for the Maize & Blue, led by (North Carolina transfer) Elliott Cadeau’s 17 points, four rebounds, and seven assists.
From a betting perspective, despite their near perfect ledger straight-up, Michigan comes into this showdown in the capital at 14-12 against the spread, resulting a scant return of 0.60 units. This is a team that has bounced back after failing to cover seven consecutive contests, putting together a 5-1 stretch ATS over the past six outings, including Tuesday’s conquest of the Boilermakers in West Lafayette (-2.5). The Wolverines have aced their only two tilts thus far when favored by fewer than three points, both of which came away from Ann Arbor, besting both Michigan State (83-71) and Purdue by double-digits. May’s troops have split their last ten road ventures ATS, though are in the midst of a 7-game unbeaten run ATS when facing an opponent fresh off of scoring 100+ points in the previous game, while they themselves have covered all but one of their past eight affairs following a performance of at least 90 points. Furthermore, they are 5-1 ATS in their last six outings played on Saturdays, while owning an 8-2 resume ATS over their past ten games contested at a neutral site. Looking at this particular matchup, is just 8-22 SU all-time against Duke, with today’s meeting marking their first since the 2013-2014 campaign, a 69-79 defeat in Durham. Of course, the most notable encounter between these two programs was that aforementioned 1992 National Championship Game, in which the fabled Fab 5 came undone in the second half of the 71-51 affair. Getting back to the present, the public must be feeling somewhat nostalgic as only 37% of all wagers placed upon today’s spread are backing the Wolverines, though for what it’s worth, the overall money being wagered on this front is split right down the middle. On the injury front, (Freshman Guard) Winters Grady has been out of action since January 2nd with an undisclosed injury, though other than that, May has a largely healthy team at his disposal. Looking ahead, Michigan will return to Ann Arbor for a visit from Minnesota, before hitting the road once more for yet another top-10 showdown, facing (No. 10) Illinois in Champaign.
Meanwhile, after watching literally their entire starting five get selected in last Summer’s NBA Draft, Duke (24-2, 13-1 in ACC) is at it again with a fresh new crop of young stars, this time led by the son of one of their former pillars from the glory days under Coach K. Unless you have been living under a rock, this particular season has been characterized by a slew of underclassmen who are expected to comprise one of the most promising draft classes in recent memory, so much so that roughly half of the NBA is blatantly tanking for an opportunity to pick one of said stars. One such stud is (Freshman Forward) Cameron Boozer, son of Carlos, who was a sophomore center when the Blue Devils cut down the nets in 2001. Indeed, Boozer (pictured below) has been as advertised in what is expected to be his lone campaign in Durham, leading the team in a number of categories, including points (22.8), free-throws made (126) and attempted (164), rebounds (10.0), and assists (3.9), while sitting level in steals (1.7), all the while authoring impressive shooting splits of 58.2/39.4/76.8. These figures compare favorably to that of the previous freshman superstar to come out of Duke, Cooper Flagg, who was the number one overall pick in last year’s draft. He may not wow you with the athleticism of some of his contemporaries, but you would be hard-pressed to find a more polished prospect with plenty of versatility upside in the front court. Like his opponent this evening, this is a team that has really made an impact on the defensive end of the hardwood, ranking third nationally in points allowed (63.2), eleventh in field goal percentage relinquished (39.2%), along with thirtieth in rebounds (39.6) on a margin of +9.9 boards per game. It will be interesting to see how (Head Coach) Jon Scheyer matches up with the size of the overwhelming size of Michigan, for between Boozer and the 6′-11″ (Sophomore Center) Patrick Ngongba, these Devils are certainly no slouch in that regard and have the requisite bodies to go toe-to-toe with the Wolverines. Granted, the latter is going to have to be at his best in this trip to the capital; the Manassas native shoots 60.1% from the field and averages 6.2 rebounds along with a team-best 1.2 blocks, though has also committed the most fouls (2.8), making it paramount that he refrains from falling into early trouble. When we last say Scheyer’s charges, they cracked the century mark for the fourth time this season, embarrassing Syracuse in a 101-64 rout at Cameron Indoor Stadium. This one was every bit as lopsided as that score would suggest, folks, as the hosts shot 62.3% overall, including 60%+ from both within and beyond the arc, dished out 21 assists in comparison to committing just four turnovers, and were also +11 from the charity stripe. On the opposite end, they relegated the Orange to 41.3% shooting, outrebounded them 38-23, permitted a mere two free-throws, and forced more turnovers (11) than assists allowed (10). Boozer led the way with 22 points on 8-of-10 shooting (80.0%) and ten rebounds, while (Sophomore Guard) Isaiah Evans nearly equaled his teammate with 21 points on 8-of-13 attempts (61.5%), including 3-of-6 from downtown (50.0%).
From a betting perspective, Duke also comes into this top-10 conflict at 14-12 against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 0.60 units despite their gaudy straight-up record. As was the case with their opponent this evening, this is a team that overcame a serious dry spell on that front (1-7 ATS), only to come into today’s trip to the capital on a 7-5 run ATS. In fact, Monday’s thrashing of Syracuse in Durham snapped a 4-game losing streak ATS, as the Blue Devils covered that 20.5-point spread with ease. Notably, this is the first time this season in which Scheyer’s troops have received points from the oddsmakers, while splitting their last ten such tilts ATS. The Devils are in the midst of a 6-1 stretch ATS immediately after crossing the 100-point threshold in the previous game, and are a stellar 20-6 ATS over their last 26 contests following a performance of at least 90 points. As we touched upon earlier, these bluebloods have absolutely OWNED Michigan with 22 victories in thirty matchups, standing as their second-most frequent non-conference adversary behind only South Carolina. Duke has won three consecutive encounters with the Wolverines, though it has been well over a decade since these programs have collided on the hardwood. Of course, by far and away their most significant clash came in that star-studded 1992 National Final, in which the program collected their second National Championship in school history, earning back-to-back glory under the direction of (Hall of Fame HC) Mike Krzyzewski and the leadership of legends such as Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, and Grant Hill. Again, we feel like the public in invoking memories of those names in this evening’s collision, as approximately 63% of all wagers placed upon the spread are backing the Devils, despite the total sum of money being wagered on this front currently in a 50/50 holding pattern. On the injury front, Scheyer also has a relatively full complement at his disposal, with the only absence being that of the seldom used (Senior Center) Ifeanyi Ufochuckwu, who has been sidelined since late November with an undisclosed malady. Looking ahead, Duke will make the trip to South Bend to battle Notre Dame on Tuesday before returning to Cameron Indoor to host (No. 14) Virginia next weekend.