7:00 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: UConn -4.5, Total: 145.5
The Big East could very likely be decided tonight, as the (No. 6) UConn Huskies look to vault ahead of the (No. 15) St. John’s Red Storm, who cling to a half-game lead in the standings heading into this crucial return leg from PeoplesBank Arena in Hartford, Connecticut. After winning the school’s first conference championship since 1992, St. John’s (22-5, 15-1 in Big East) is sitting in excellent position to repeat as title holders if they can sweep the season series against Connecticut for a second straight term, which is a testament to the job that (Head Coach) Rick Pitino has done during his brief tenure in Queens. Indeed, the Hall of Famer had become something of an enigma following his high-profile departure due to the scandal at Louisville that saw his former employers vacate all of their wins from the 2011-12 campaign to 2014-15. Three years later, he would begin the long road towards redemption abroad, leading Greek side Panathinaikos to a EuroLeague Final Four, before ultimately returning stateside, accepting an offer from Iona, whom in three years would go on to win the MAC on two occasions and progress to a pair of NCAA Tournaments. The two-time National Champion would remain in his native empire state, this time taking over at St. John’s, looking to revive a program that had once been his direct rival. Unsurprisingly, he has done precisely that, as the Red Storm are set to compete in their consecutive big dances for the first time since the turn of the century, with the 73-year-old becoming the only coach in NCAA history to take SIX different programs to the NCAA Tournament. This current group is an experienced side, with the rotation including four seniors and a junior that have come largely via the Transfer Portal, though the most notable figure arrived alongside Pitino. (Senior Forward) Zuby Ejiofor spent one year at Kansas before making the trek to the tri-state area, developing into a real jack-of-all-trades leading the Johnnies in points (15.9), rebounds (7.2), assists (3.4), and blocks (1.9), while pacing the conference in free-throws made (151) and attempted (214). When we last saw Ejiofor (pictured below), he and the Storm cruised to their thirteenth consecutive victory via an 81-52 drubbing of Creighton; the hosts held the Blue Jays to 35.5% shooting from the field, including 6-of-22 from downtown (27.3%), while outrebounding them 40-27 and harassing them into sixteen turnovers. That last bit led to ten more field goal attempts, while Pitino’s charges continued to plant a flag at the charity stripe, netting 20-of-23 attempts (87.0%), which was a major factor in their previous win over UConn (more on that affair in a bit). Ejiofor scored fifteen points on 4-of-6 shooting overall and 7-of-8 from the stripe, (Providence transfer) Bryce Hopkins matched his teammate’s scoring output, but also put forth ten rebounds and a pair of steals.
From a betting perspective, St. John’s comes into this trip to Hartford at 15-12 against the spread, parlaying to a net return of 1.5 units thus far. Despite their current winning streak, this is a team that has alternated wins and losses ATS over the past five outings, though they had little trouble in covering the number (-8.5) in their obliteration of Creighton from the weekend. The Red Storm have received points from the oddsmakers on just three previous occasions this term, covering two of them along the way: the first, a narrow 82-83 defeat at (No. 15) Iowa State, the second, a 12-point loss at Kentucky, and the most recent being an 81-72 conquest of their opponent tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, the Johnnies own a narrow 39-34 SU advantage over the Huskies, winning and covering each of the last three encounters. Interestingly, the road team is 7-3 ATS over the last ten meetings, though that was not the case when these sides crossed paths earlier in the campaign. Indeed, this one was decided in the second half, folks, for after being level at intermission, the hosts outscored the visitors 42-33 over the final twenty minutes of action. With both teams shooting 50% or better from the field, the Storm were decisive from the charity stripe, where they were an industrious 22-of-31 (71.0%), outscoring their foes by a whopping 17 points. Ejiofor was the most notable in this regard, netting 8-of-10 attempts en route to a team-best 21 points on 6-of-10 shooting from the floor, along with ten rebounds, seven assists, a pair of steals, and three blocks. Looking ahead, St. John’s will return to Queens for visits from Villanova and Georgetown, before closing out the regular season on the road with a venture to Seton Hall, whom they bested in a 65-60 affair back on January 20th.
Meanwhile, there is plenty on the line tonight for UConn (25-3, 15-2 in Big East), who not only have an opportunity to move ahead of their opponent at the top of the conference standings, but are also presented with perhaps one final attempt to convince the selection committee that they are in fact worthy of a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. Indeed, (Head Coach) Dan Hurley’s troops have resided within the top-six of the polls throughout the campaign, making last season’s inevitable power drain looking more like an isolated occurrence. With that being said, they haven’t quite been at their best of late, winning three of their last five outings following a stellar 22-1 start. Ironically, this stretch began with that aforementioned 72-81 loss at Madison Square Garden, with their other defeat coming at home against Creighton (84-91). During this period, their defensive prowess simply hasn’t come close to Hurley’s standards, as the Huskies have shipped 76.0 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field, including 52.4% from within the arc and 36.3% beyond it, along with 14.8 assists in comparison to forcing just 9.2 turnovers. However, what we’re sure has been driving the 53-year-old insane has been Connecticut’s penchant for fouling, which is either a sign of overaggressive play or simple complacency, either of which being unacceptable in his eyes. Over these five tilts, his side have committed an average of 18.8 fouls, leading to 17.0 free-throws on 23.2 attempts, representing margins of -6.6 and -7.8 in those latter two categories. Furthermore, the disparity was particularly egregious in those two defeats to the Red Storm and Blue Jays, who together outscored the Huskies 49-16 on that front. There is a variety of reasons as to why this hurts a team, from the fact that it slows the game down to giving away easy points, while also affording the opponent the luxury of getting to set up their halfcourt defense. Fortunately, UConn tightened things up on this end of the hardwood in last weekend’s 73-63 victory at Villanova, relegating the hosts to just 40.7% shooting overall, including 6-of-24 from three (25.0%), while dominating them on the glass (32-18), and most importantly shipping fourteen free-throw attempts, leading to a much more palatable 11-9 difference on that front. Not to be forgotten in all of this discourse over fouls and free-throws is that the Huskies once again proved to be a prolific offensive team, shooting a stellar 54.9% from the field, including 22-of-32 (68.8%) from within the arc, and nineteen assists. (Junior Guard) Solomon Ball (pictured below), who leads the team in scoring on the campaign (14.2), was held to single digits for the second consecutive contest, though it was an otherwise balanced effort from the team as a whole, with no single players scoring more than twelve and six totaling at least eight points. (Senior Forward) Tarris Reed was perfect with eleven points on 5-of-5 shooting, along with six rebounds, three assists, and three blocks.
From a betting perspective, UConn may have won nearly 90% of their games thus far, but they have been rather poor against the spread (9-19), equating to a net loss of 10.9 units. Let’s call a spade a spade, folks, for this is a team that has suffered from what we like to refer to as gross reputation syndrome. Given their status as an elite powerhouse following their back-to-back national titles from two years ago, the Huskies oftentimes find themselves as sizable favorites, whether their current incarnation is deserving of said status not. This season, Hurley’s troops have been favored by at least 11.5 points on EIGHTEEN occasions, though are a miserable 5-13 ATS in such contests. With that being said, they really have left a lot to be desired in this regard regardless of what the oddsmakers think, for Connecticut has covered just THREE of their last FOURTEEN games overall, which does include that aforementioned triumph over Villanova from the weekend. As we touched upon earlier, they trail the all-time series against St. John’s (34-39 SU), dropping each of their last three meetings after winning six of seven encounters. As for their previous affair from early February, Hurley will likely feel hard done by the officials, as the charity stripe ultimately decided the outcome of that 81-72 tilt; the visitors shot a blistering 54.7% from the field, including 20-of-34 from within the arc (58.8%) and 9-of-19 beyond it (47.4%), though were flagged for 23 personal fouls, resulting in an uneven 12-31 disadvantage in free-throw attempts. Sending their adversary to stripe so frequently was a compound issue, for not only did it lead to -17 margin on singles, but it also allowed the Red Storm to set up their press, which led to fifteen turnovers for the visitors. (Georgia transfer) Silas Demary and Senior Forward) Alex Karaban scored eighteen and seventeen points respectively, with the latter drilling 3-of-4 attempts from downtown, but it was a tough showing at the office for the aforementioned Ball, who finished with eight points on 3-of-8 shooting (37.5%). Looking ahead, UConn will remain at home over the weekend for a visit from Seton Hall, whom they bested in a 69-64 affair from mid-January, before finishing the regular season with a trip to last-place Marquette a week later.