9:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Arizona -7.5, Total: 149.5
The final week of the regular season is upon us, with the fate of the BIG XII to be potentially decided tonight in Tucson, as the (No. 4) Iowa State look to reverse their recent form in this clash with the (No. 2) Arizona Wildcats, who can secure sole possession of their first league title since joining the conference a year ago. Two weeks ago, everything was there for the taking for Iowa State (24-5, 11-5 in BIG XII), who were ranked fourth in the polls, were in the running for their first conference championship since 2001 and were projected to capture a one seed in the looming NCAA Tournament. Since then, this is a team that has dropped two of their last three outings, succumbing to what has been arguably the toughest league in the country. First, the Cyclones couldn’t keep up with (No. 13) BYU in a 79-69 affair in Provo, where they were utterly pummeled within the arc; the visitors were outscored by 14 points in that area of the hardwood, shipping an untenable 22-of-33 shooting (66.7%), while also conceding a dozen offensive rebounds, which bolstered that percentage with a plethora of easy second-chance opportunities at the rim. A 75-59 drubbing of Utah provided a sense course-correction, though that notion was indeed unfounded as (Head Coach) T.J. Otzelberger & Co suffered their first home loss of the campaign in an 82-73 tilt from over the weekend at the hands of (No. 13) Texas Tech. ISU had won their first fifteen games at Hilton Coliseum this term, though fell into a 20-point hole in the first which they spent the rest of the afternoon fighting back from. The hosts managed to cut the deficit to six points with just over seven minutes left in regulation, only for the Red Raiders to respond with a decisive 10-0 run to put the outcome to rest. When it was all said and done, this one was an advert as to what happens when one team is making their shots, while the other… is well, doing other things. Iowa State netted 39.0% of their attempts overall, including 8-of-24 from three (33.3%), though allowed their foe to shoot a blistering 58.0% from the field and 14-of-29 on treys (48.0%), leading to a disparity of 24 points in that regard. The Cyclones got back into it thanks to getting to the charity stripe (19-of-27 FT) and scoring 17 points off turnovers, though it simply wasn’t enough to keep their perfect record in Ames. (Junior Forward) Milan Momcilovic and (Senior Forward) Joshua Jefferson (pictured together below) combined for 42 points on 13-of-28 shooting (46.4%), with the latter getting his hands dirty with 5 steals. Otzelberger, who is now in his fifth season with ISU, has built much of their success on defense, which has been his outfit’s calling card in 2025-26; you wouldn’t know it from that loss to Tech, but these birds rank second in BIG XII in points allowed (66.7) and field goal percentage defense (42.1%), third in three-point percentage defense (31.8%), first in steals (7.5), and third in turnovers forced (11.8). While winning the conference is out of the question at this point, a victory tonight in Tucson will likely guarantee two byes in the upcoming BIG XII Tournament for the Cyclones, who currently sit three games behind the Wildcats for the league lead. The prospect of rest next will likely be appealing to Otzelberger, who will have his side prepared to compete in their fifth consecutive big dance since his arrival back in 2021.
From a betting perspective, Iowa State comes into this crucial venture to Tucson at 16-13 against the spread, parlaying to a net return of 1.40 units thus far. This has certainly been a streaky team on that front, what with three separate stretches of 3+ consecutive covers along with two droughts of 3+ non-covers. Saturday’s defeat at home to the Red Raiders not only snapped that aforementioned home winning streak, but it also ended a 3-1 run ATS. The Cyclones find themselves as an underdog for just the second time all season, which should bode well given that they aced their previous test; 4.5-point dogs at Purdue, Otzelberger’s troops ran rampant in West Lafayette, embarrassing the Boilermakers in an 81-58 affair. ISU is 6-4 ATS over their last ten trips away from Ames, while covering seven of their last ten contests (7-2-1 ATS) when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, 8-1 ATS in their last nine outings immediately following a non-cover, with a 5-1 ledger ATS over their past six games coming right after a SU loss. Monday nights have also been good to the Cyclones of late, with four covers over their last five such tilts. Looking at this particular matchup, they narrowly trail the all-time series against Arizona at 4-5 SU, with each team claiming victory (SU and ATS) on their home floor since the Wildcats made the transition to the BIG XII. After running out of gas in an 86-75 overtime thriller in Tucson, Iowa State returned the favor with a convincing 84-67 win at Hilton Coliseum, due in large part to a strong first half in which the hosts raced out to a 43-30 halftime advantage. In the end, the Cyclones shot a stellar 50.0% from the field, including 11-of-21 from beyond the arc (52.4%) where they outscored the visitors by a whopping 21 points, which helped make up for some sloppy play in possession (15 turnovers). Defensively, Otzelberger must have been pleased to see his charges smother their adversary, relegating the cats to a miserable 33.3% shooting overall, including 15-of-35 (42.9%) within the arc and 4-of-22 (18.2%) beyond it. Momcilovic and (Senior Guard) Tamin Lipsey led the way with 17 and 15 points respectively, with the former making it ran from the perimeter on 4-of-7 shooting (57.1%), while the latter dished out a team-high 8 assists. Getting back to the present, the public doesn’t appear to be convinced that ISU will pull the upset tonight at McKale Center, let alone cover, as roughly 47% of all wagers placed upon the spread are backing the visitors. Looking ahead, Iowa State will return to Ames for the regular season finale against Arizona State, before getting ready to embark on next week’s BIG XII Tournament, where they will either receive a first-round bye or byes in the first two rounds, based on if they finish in the top-four of the conference standings.
Meanwhile, Arizona (27-2, 14-2 in BIG XII) clinched at least a share of the conference regular season title with last weekend’s 84-61 drubbing of (No. 14) Kansas, serving as their twenty-ninth league crown and their first since joining the BIG XII a year ago. Also in his fifth year at his respective program, (Head Coach) Tommy Lloyd has done a tremendous job of rebuilding the Wildcats following the mess left over from the previous regime, importing the institutional structure that he learned as a longtime assistant under Mark Few at Gonzaga. With three Sweet Sixteens under their belt in four years, this group is poised to progress even further in the looming NCAA Tournament, evidenced by their impressive 9-week run sitting atop the polls from early December to early February. Sure, suffering back-to-back defeats against the likes of Kansas (82-78) and Texas Tech (78-75, OT) served as a cautionary reminder that there was still plenty of work left to do, but we will credit these cats for righting the proverbial ship, responding with four consecutive victories by an average margin of 11.0 points per game. And they haven’t done so against cupcakes either, folks, for Lloyd’s charges bested the likes of BYU (75-68) and (No. 2) Houston (73-66), that latter coming on the road no less, while the Jayhawks were fresh off a romp over the Cougars themselves. Size and physicality are the calling cards for a team that spends most of its time dominating the opposition around the rim; Arizona ranks first in the BIG XII in points scored (84.5), field goal percentage (48.9%), two-point percentage (53.9%), free-throws made (18.3), rebounds (39.9), and steals (7.5), with 82.9% of their fields coming within the arc. This is precisely the approach that they used to bludgeon Kansas last Saturday afternoon, as the hosts scored exactly half (42) of their total points on twos, including 30 in the paint, while feasting at the charity stripe where they netted 30-of-34 free-throws (88.0%). Furthermore, they also owned the visitors when it was time to get out and run in transition, owning a 15-4 advantage in fast break points. Defensively, the relegated KU to 34.0% shooting from the field, while utterly manhandling them on the glass (48-26), including 14-9 on the offensive end. Needless to say, McKale Center was absolutely roaring as all five starters scored in double-figures, led by (Freshman Guard) Brayden Burries (pictured below), who true to his name, buried 6-of-10 field goals and all 6 of his free-throws en route to 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 5 assists. Again, a win tonight will not only ensure that Arizona wins the BIG XII regular season title, but it will see them also enter their conference tournament as the number one overall seed, while in all likelihood earning one of the four one seeds in the big dance.
From a betting perspective, Arizona arrives in this potential conference clincher at 17-12 against the spread, resulting in a net return of 3.30 units thus far. That aforementioned rubbing of the Jayhawks snapped a relatively cold spell on that front, for this is a team that has covered just two of their last six outings. Befitting their status as a powerhouse, the Wildcats have often found themselves as sizable favorites, with 22 of their 29 tilts coming as favorites of at least 7.5 points, which equates to over 75% of their schedule, folks. For those wondering, they are a middling 11-11 ATS in such games, which is notable given that tonight’s spread once again falls into those parameters. Lloyd’s troops have covered six of their last ten affairs in Tucson, though are just 1-4 ATS over their past five outings in which they have been favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they are 13-3 ATS over their last sixteen tilts immediately following a SU win by 20+ points, while owning a 25-6 ledger ATS in their past 31 efforts when fresh off of a cover. These cats have enjoyed good fortune of late on Mondays as well, covering 21 of 27 games played on this particular night of the week. As we touched upon earlier, they currently cling to 5-4 SU edge in the all-time series against Iowa State, with the two foes splitting their two encounters from last season, which was the first season in the BIG XII for these cats. Though they were certainly hammered in the return leg in Ames, the initial showdown versus the Cyclones was everything a neutral could have hoped for. After a spirited 40 minutes of action, the contest transitioned to overtime, where the hosts firmly took control, outscoring the visitors 15-4 in the extra period. In a game win which neither team really found their footing offensively, Arizona did manage to earn small advantages from downtown (10-of-29 3FG) and the charity stripe (18-of-22 FT), leading to a cumulative differential of +15 in that regard. (Former Guard) Caleb Love led the way with 22 points, but (Junior Forward) Tobe Awaka added 17 points and 12 rebounds, while the aforementioned Bradley contributed across the board with 9 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, and an impressive 7 steals. Getting back to the present, the public are backing the hosts on the spread tonight, not just from a volume of wagers standpoint, but the overall money being wagered as well, with 52% of the cash siding with the cats. Looking ahead, Arizona will close the regular season with a trip to Boulder to battle Colorado, with a double-bye in next week’s BIG XII Tournament all but assured at this point.