9:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Bucks -1.5, Total: 231.5
With the playoffs just over a month away, the race for postseason positioning is heating up as the Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks cross paths tonight at FISERV Forum in a matchup featuring two teams traveling in opposite directions. Winners of five of their last six games, including each of their last four, the Hawks (31-31, 9th in Eastern Conference) are ascending up the standings in the East, with an eye on escaping the Play-In Tournament Field that has so frequently been their proverbial sandbox over the past few years. Indeed, few franchises have been as frequent participants of the Play-In as these birds, who have competed four times since its inception in 2020. Of course, nobody actually wants to begin their playoff run in such a position, which makes the timing of this recent turn in form all the more promising for a team that has been mired in mediocrity for much of the past five years, certainly since their surprise trip to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals. This is also a group that has been in a rather fluid state over the course of this season, as (Head Coach) Quinn Snyder’s rotation has seen some seriously dramatic changes with major pieces coming and going. Back in the Summer, Atlanta acquired (sharpshooting 7-footer) Kristaps Porzingis in a deal with the Celtics, only to shock the basketball world in early January by trading away (4-time All-Star Point Guard) Trae Young to the Wizards in exchange for a package consisting of (young shooter) Corey Kispert and (veteran Guard) C.J. McCollum. Far from finished wheeling and dealing, Snyder and (General Manager) Onsi Saleh rolled up their sleeves at the Trade Deadline and acquired the likes of (veteran Guard) Gabe Vincent and (mercurial, yet promising young Forward) Jonathan Kuminga in separate trades with the Lakers and Warriors respectively, with the latter transaction seeing Porzingis heading to Golden State. As a result, this has become a much younger, more athletic, amorphous roster, which has allowed Snyder to switch defensively and take advantage of more mismatches than he could with previous iterations. (Fourth-year Forward) Jalen Johnson earned his first All-Star nod this season averaging career-highs in points (22.7), rebounds (10.6), and assists (7.9), while (Spain International) Zaccharie Risacher, the number one pick in the 2024 Draft, continues to develop in this, his second season with the birds. However, the most fascinating figure is easily Kuminga (pictured below), who is absolutely flourishing in the ATL. Has there ever been a more irregular career path for a budding star? The G-League standout was selected seventh overall by the Warriors in between their two championship windows, though would struggle for consistent playing time while openly feuding with his HC, Steve Kerr, leading to swirling trade rumors for two years. The Dubs re-signed him to a multi-year contract last Summer, only in an attempt to move him later on and avoid losing the talent for nothing. Since arriving in Atlanta, Kuminga has seen his production increase exponentially from 12.1 points per game to 21.3, 5.9 rebounds to 7.7, and 0.4 steals to 1.7, all despite logging just 2.9 more minutes per contest. This boom continued in Sunday’s 135-101 drubbing of the Trail Blazers, in which the hosts shot a red-hot 55.4% from the field, including 15-of-40 from beyond the arc (37.5%), with a 66-42 edge in the paint, a 24-10 advantage in fast break points, and totaling 30 points off turnovers. Six players scored in double-figures, with Kuminga providing 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting (70.0%) off the bench, along with 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and a pair of steals. (Veteran Center) Onyeka Okongwu really stood out with one of his best performances of the campaign too, leading the team with 25 points on 9-of-15 shooting (60.0%), knocking down 7-of-12 treys (58.3%), and posting twelve rebounds alongside 6 assists. With that victory, the Hawks moved within three full games behind the Sixers for safety from the Play-In.
From a betting perspective, what you see is just about what you get when it comes to the Hawks, who haven’t exhibited much variance between their ledgers straight-up and against the spread (30-32) thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 5.00 units. With that being said, they have certainly been hot on both fronts of late, winning and covering each of their last four outings, including that aforementioned romp over the Blazers as 6.5-point favorites, coming off the heels of an ugly 1-8 stretch ATS. Snyder’s troops have covered four consecutive contests versus opponents owning a sub-.500 SU record, while also stringing together four straight covers on the road. Looking at this particular matchup, the Hawks are 4-6 SU and ATS over their last ten meetings with the Bucks, though came up short in their lone encounter from this season, a 112-110 affair at State Farm Arena. Trailing 54-38 at halftime thanks to a frigid 29.4% shooting from the field, the hosts clawed their way back into the tilt throughout the second half, outscoring the visitors 72-58 on 53.3% shooting overall, including 11-of-20 from beyond the arc (55.0%). The aforementioned Johnson scored 17 of his 28 points post-intermission, while (journeyman Swingman) Nickeil Alexander-Walker erupted for 28 of his 32 points during that span. The latter was letting it fly from downtown, folks, netting 7-of-16 treys on the night, with five of those makes coming in the final stanza of play. Of course, this affair occurred prior to the trade that netted Kuminga, who has faced Milwaukee seven times during his tenure in Golden State, averaging 18.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.0 assists on shooting splits of 47.4/41.7/88.2 in just under 27.0 minutes of action. Given their recent form, it is easy to understand why the public is backing the birds tonight, as approximately 64% of all wagers placed the spread are taking the points. On the injury front, Snyder should have a full complement of players at his disposal for tonight’s trip north, with no significant individuals listed on the injury report. Looking ahead, the Hawks will return home for what will continue a stretch of ten games at State Farm in nearly a month’s time, hosting the 76ers, Mavericks, and Nets before welcoming the Bucks back for their third and final matchup of the regular season.
Meanwhile, as their opponent continues to climb the ladder in the East, the Bucks (26-34, 11th in Eastern Conference) are plummeting down the pecking order in danger of missing out on a spot in the Play-In Tournament. With four losses over their past six outings, this is a team that currently sits 3.5 games behind the Hornets for the final seed in the postseason, though reinforcements have arrived in the form of (2-time MVP) Giannis Antetokounmpo, who returned over the weekend following a 15-game stretch on the bench due to lingering calf soreness. For all intents and purposes, this all appears to be heading to an inevitable divorce between Antetokounmpo (pictured below) and the franchise that drafted him twelve years ago, with rumors continuing to swirl about his future after months of speculation. While Milwaukee opted not to move the Greek International prior to the Trade Deadline, there is an overwhelming sense that he will ultimately be traded in the offseason as the club has really been backed into a corner as far their ability to improve the roster with him remaining the centerpiece of it. In no uncertain terms, these deer are where no team really wants to be: they are both aging and expensive, with the NBA’s punitive salary cap restrictions making it nigh impossible to add premium veteran pieces around the 31-year-old, who in turn could kick start a rebuild with a potential bounty of young players and draft picks via trade. It really is quite a situation for a small-market franchise and their perennial MVP-caliber foundational piece, who has been nothing short of loyal over his dozen seasons with the Bucks, leading them to their first NBA Title since 1971. Simply put, in a league in which superstars oftentimes demand to be traded in pursuit of greener pastures, this guy has been an outlier, though at this point of his career it really feels like it would be in the best interest for both parties to finally part ways. Now, with all that being said, can Giannis and the Bucks indeed salvage the rest of this campaign? Sure, it isn’t like this team has been dreadful with him on the court this season, though Milwaukee is just 15-16 with him opposed to 11-18 without him, and that is considering that he continues to be as productive as ever with averages of 27.7 points, 10.1 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.7 blocks per game. Unfortunately, (Head Coach) Dov Rivers & Co couldn’t get back on the winning track even with the big fella’s return in Monday night’s 108-81 loss at home to the Celtics. Playing just under 30 minutes, Antetokounmpo finished with an uneven 19 points on an uncharacteristic 7-of-18 shooting (38.9%), along with 11 rebounds and 2 assists. As a team, the hosts were held to a dismal 36.5% shooting overall, with nearly as many turnovers (16) as assists (18), while getting killed on the offensive glass (-10) and outscored by a whopping 21 points from beyond the arc.
From a betting perspective, the Bucks have been far less rewarding than their opponent tonight against the spread (27-34) thus far, resulting in a net loss of 9.70 units. This is a team that has failed to cover each of their last three outings, coming off the heels of a successful stretch in which they were 8-2 ATS, the lion’s share of which came as sizable dogs. Then again, that is what you can expect to happen when playing without Antetokounmpo for a prolonged period of time; Milwaukee went a reasonable 8-7 ATS in the Greek Freak’s absence, which includes a 3-4 ledger ATS when receiving at least 6.5 points from the oddsmakers. Rivers’ lot have covered only one of their last nine games versus an adversary owning a SU record north of .500, are in the midst of a 2-9 stretch ATS when playing on just one day of rest, and are 4-12 ATS in their last sixteen contests immediately after shipping 100+ points. Looking at this particular matchup, the Bucks have certainly gotten the better of the Hawks over the past few years, particularly in the playoffs where they eliminated them in the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals en route to capturing their first O’Brien trophy in 50 years. The deer have felled the birds in six of their last ten encounters, though only twice in their last five clashes at FISERV Forum, the most recent being a 110-102 affair in mid-December of 2024. Trailing 82-83 heading into the fourth quarter, the hosts would go on to outscore the visitors 28-19 in the final stanza, with Antetokounmpo scoring 10 of his 32 total points, his team shooting 52.6% from the field, with seven assists in comparison to committing to only one turnover. Over the course of his stellar career, Giannis has really feasted upon Atlanta, averaging 23.9 points on an efficient 53.9% shooting, with 9.9 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.4 blocks in 40 career matchups. When the 2-time MVP crossed paths with the Hawks earlier this season in that aforementioned 112-110 showdown, he totaled 21 points 7-of-12 shooting (58.3%) from both the field and the charity stripe, while pulling down an industrious 17 rebounds to go along with 6 assists, a steal, and a block. On the injury front, Rivers will be without (veteran Swingman) Taurean Prince once again, with the well-traveled 31-year-old having been out of action since January 1st with a neck malady. Looking ahead, the Bucks will continue this 5-game homestand with a visit from the lowly Jazz this weekend, before meeting the Magic and Suns in the following three days.