9:15 PM EST, TruTV – Spread: NC State -1.5, Total: 161.5
Before the 2026 NCAA Tournament begins in earnest, we have the First 4 to get through, as the Texas Longhorns and NC State Wolfpack look to make the most of their tourney bid after successfully escaping the bubble. The theme for each of these programs is rebirth, as both schools are starting over with their respective basketball coaches. Despite competing in their sixth consecutive NCAA Tournament, Texas (18-14, 9-9 in SEC) is in the midst of Year One under the direction of (Head Coach) Sean Miller, hoping for some sorely needed stability after a relatively wild 3-year run. Back in 2021, the Longhorns pried away (former HC) Chris Beard from in-state rival, Texas Tech, three years following the Red Raiders’ shock run to the Final 4. Beard, would lead Texas to the big dance in his first year on the job, only to be fired 8 games into his second season due to inappropriate off-court behavior. His chief lieutenant, Rodney Terry, picked up the pieces and steered the ‘Horns to their first Elite 8 appearance since 2008, though struggled to maintain such success in amassing a disappointing 40-29 ledger over his two full seasons in charge, failing to advance past the opening weekend of either NCAA Tournament. After being fired following an 86-80 loss to Xavier in last year’s First 4, the program ironically hired Miller (pictured below), who was finishing his second stint with the Musketeers. Of course, Miller is no stranger to hard times either; the 57-year-old enjoyed quite a bit of success at Arizona before falling victim to the corruption scandal that rocked the college basketball world in 2017-2018, costing the Wildcats a wealth of wins and ultimately for Miller, his job. So, with all that in mind, how has the veteran tactician faired in his second tenure in the big time? Well, the SEC can be a tough league to break into, though a 9-9 conference ledger is far from poor considering he and his staff are still very much laying down their foundation with 5 members of the 9-man rotation coming courtesy of the Transfer Portal. They went a reasonable 4-5 against ranked opponents this season, which includes three losses to the likes of Duke (60-75), UConn (63-71), and Florida (71-84), schools that either captured a One Seed in this dance or were considered for one. At one point, it appeared that the Longhorns would be a comfortable participant in the tournament, particularly after stringing together 5 straight victories in SEC play, only to pick a terrible time to hit an ugly 1-5 slide, culminating in a 1-and-done run through their conference tourney. Defense has been the biggest issue for Miller & Co versus their league brethren, especially during this malaise; they shipped 85.7 points on an all-too generous 50.8% shooting from the field, including 40.6% from beyond the arc, while forcing just 7.3 turnovers against 14.2 assists permitted. Furthermore, their offensive efficiency left a lot to be desired as well, averaging barely more assists (10.8) than turnovers (10.3), which is a telltale sign of a team that lacks ball movement. This was the case with their 66-76 loss to Ole Miss in last week’s SEC Tournament, as the ‘Horns could muster just 35.2% shooting overall, including a dreadful 12-of-34 from within the arc (35.3%), with 12 assists in comparison to 13 turnovers. Texas was outscored 50-18 in the paint, negating the advantages that they held from downtown (+18) and the charity stripe (+10). (Xavier transfer) Dailyn Swain, who arrived alongside Miller, led the team with 22 points on 4-of-9 shooting (44.4%), with the bulk of his production coming from the free-throw line (13-of-14), while also posting totals of 12 rebounds and 4 assists.
From a betting perspective, Texas comes into tonight’s second consecutive venture through the First 4 at a mediocre 17-15 against the spread, parlaying to a scant profit of 0.30 units. Needless to say, you haven’t made much money for yourself had you been betting on this team lately, as the Longhorns have covered only ONE of their last seven outings, with each of their last two losses ATS coming as favorites of at least 5.5 points. On the season, Miller’s charges are 8-5 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, though just 1-3 ATS in their last four such games, while covering 7 of their past 10 trips away from Austin. These steers are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games played at neutral sites, while mirroring that record over their past five matchups against teams residing above .500, which is obviously the case tonight. All-time, this is a program that is participating in their 40th NCAA Tournament, owning a 40-42 record, including 3 trips to the Final 4. As for Miller, he is taking his third different school to the big dance, with a solid 22-13 ledger on file. Looking at this particular matchup, Texas is 4-2 all-time versus NC State, which includes an entertaining 102-97 victory over the Wolfpack from back in late November during the Maui Invitational. Given that final score, it should come as no surprise that both teams were hot throughout the affair, with each side netting well over 50.0% of their attempts from the field. The ‘Horns put together one of their finest offensive displays of the season, shooting 55.8% overall, 13-of-20 from within the arc (65.0%), and 16-of-32 beyond it (50.0%), while knocking down an industrious 28-of-33 free-throws (84.8%). However, the key to success was fluid ball movement, dishing out 18 assists opposed to committing just 7 turnovers, which as we discussed earlier is the opposite of what they have been doing on that end of the hardwood of late. Six different players scored in double-figures, led by (Senior Guard) Jordan Pope’s 28 points, fueled by a blistering 7-of-13 shooting from deep (53.8%), while Swain filled out the box scoresheet with 14 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists. (Senior Guard) Chendall Weaver, poured in 17 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists off the bench, while (St. John’s transfer) Simeon Wilcher added a dozen points of his own in a reserve role. On the injury front, (Senior Forward) Lassina Traore, a transfer from Long Beach State, is listed as questionable after missing the past nine games with a lingering knee malady. The big fella doesn’t offer a whole lot on the offensive end of the hardwood, but is an active force on the glass, averaging 5.1 rebounds in just 15.7 minutes per contest, including 1.9 of the offensive variety, which would be key against a smaller NC State side. Looking ahead, if Texas prevails tonight in Dayton, which is ironically where Miller’s brother Archie rose to prominence with the Flyers, then they will face (8 Seed) BYU in Thursday’s First Round matchup.
Meanwhile, NC State (20-13, 10-8 in ACC) finds themselves in a very similar situation to their opponent tonight, returning to the NCAA Tournament despite starting over with a new Head Coach. It was just two years ago that the Wolfpack made a surprising run to the Final 4, their first since (legendary HC) Jim Valvano cut down the nets back in 1983. One would think that such success would buy (former HC) Kevin Keatts more time in Raleigh, but that would NOT be the case as he was fired after a disappointing 12-19 finish, which included a dismal 5-15 showing in conference play. The program would thus pivot to (HC) Will Wade, who like his counterpart tonight, is enjoying his second shot at the big time after his previous effort ended in scandal. Back in 2017, Wade (pictured below) took over LSU and would go on to lead them to an SEC Championship in just his second year in Baton Rouge, though three tourney appearances in four years would not be enough to save him after an NCAA investigation revealed a plethora of recruiting violations. After a year off from coaching, he would begin his comeback trail at McNeese State, where he would secure Southland regular season and conference tournament titles in each of his two seasons with the Cowboys, which grabbed the attention of the Wolfpack. So, how has Wade done in his first year in Raleigh, you ask? Well, as his counterpart did, he also tapped into the Transfer Portal to rebuild the roster, with six members of the rotation arriving courtesy of other schools, a few of which followed him from McNeese State. This is an experienced group consisting of six seniors, while also being one of the better offensive units in the ACC, where they ranked fourth in points (80.1), second in three-point percentage (37.2%) and free-throws (15.7), committing the fewest turnovers along the way (8.6). Unfortunately, they were one of the worst that the ACC had to offer on the defensive end of the court, shipping 78.8 points (14th in ACC) on 46.1% shooting (15th in ACC), including 36.8% from downtown (15th in ACC), and 35.1 rebounds (17th in ACC). Then again, a lot of this has to do with their lack of size; Wade essentially fields a rotation consisting of six guards, with (North Carolina transfer) Ven-Allen Lubin the only true Forward at 6′-8″, 226 lbs. As a result, they get pushed around quite a bit on the glass and in the paint, though the upside here is that they are extremely active in passing lanes, leading the ACC in steals (8.3) and ranking second in turnovers forced (11.3). That dichotomy has really hurt them down the stretch of this campaign, as the Wolfpack have suffered seven losses in their last nine outings, including a 1-1 effort in last week’s ACC Tournament. During this stretch, NC State has given up 87.3 points on 50.2% shooting overall, including 40.0% from three, while getting hammered on the boards along the way (-6.5 rebounds). After besting Pitt (98-88) in the opening round of the tourney, Wade’s troops ran out of gas in an 81-74 affair against Virginia, whom there lost two previous meetings by a combined 44 points. The Pack shot just 36.8% from the field, including a miserable 10-of-35 within the arc (28.6%) where they were outscored by 14 points. They did manage to keep it close due to 11-of-22 shooting from deep (50.0%) and an industrious 21-of-24 from the charity stripe (87.5%), along with a powerful performance from (Sophomore Guard) Paul McNeil, who led them with 26 points fueled by 6-of-11 shooting on threes (54.5%).
From a betting perspective, NC State comes into this First 4 foray at just 14-18-1 ATS, leading to a net loss of 5.50 units. If you thought that their opponent tonight has been mired in a malaise on this front, then we would like you to introduce to the Wolfpack, who have covered just TWO of their last eleven outings, narrowly missing the cut in that aforementioned loss to the Cavaliers as 6.5-point underdogs. On the season, Wade & Co are 13-13-1 when favored by the oddsmakers, while posting a 5-5 ledger over their last ten such games. The bigger issue is that these wolves have failed to cover precisely zero of their last five trips away from Raleigh, which is bad news given that the venue for tonight’s tilt is in Dayton, Ohio. They are also mired in a 5-game losing streak ATS versus opposition residing above .500, which of course is the case tonight. All-time, this is a program that is making their 30th appearance in the NCAA Tournament, owning a strong 41-28 record, with four trips to the Final 4 and a pair of National Championships, the most recent coming 43 years ago. However, much of their success in the big dance is squarely in the rearview mirror, for they have participated in just three of the last nine tourneys, with that aforementioned trip to the 2024 Final 4 marking the only time that they’ve advanced past the first round over the past decade. Looking at this particular matchup, North Carolina State is 2-4 all-time against Texas, with two losses over the past two seasons. When they crossed paths in November’s Mau Invitational, it was nothing short of a spirited conflict despite Wade’s side falling short in a 102-97 shootout. As we covered earlier, both teams were on fire in this one, with the Wolfpack shooting 53.1% overall, including 35-of-45 from within the arc (55.6%) and 9-of-19 beyond it (47.4%), along with an additional 20-of-28 from the charity stripe (71.4%). The triumvirate of McNeil, Lubin, and (McNeese State transfer) Quadir Copeland combined for 71 points on a ridiculous 26-of-39 shooting (66.7%), along with 16 rebounds, and 7 assists. Unfortunately, anytime you concede 100+ points in regulation, you are getting worked on the defensive end, folks, which was the case here, as they allowed their opponent to shoot over 55.0% from the field, drain 16 treys, and knock down 28 free-throws. The Pack were +26 in the paint, though were -21 from the perimeter, while also losing the battle in transition (-17 fast break points). On the injury front, this is a largely healthy team with no significant absences expected for tonight’s affair. Looking ahead, if NC State get revenge for that earlier defeat tonight, then they will face off against BYU in Thursday’s matchup.