9:15 PM EST, TruTV – Spread: SMU -7.5, Total: 164.5
The last participant in the 2026 NCAA Tournament will be decided tonight in Dayton, as the near-perfect Miami-Ohio RedHawks cross paths with the SMU Mustangs in the fourth and final matchup of the First 4. One of the many subplots of last weekend’s Selection Sunday was where Miami-Ohio (31-1, 18-0 in MAC) would fall within the tournament field, provided they even made the cut, which is fairly ridiculous given their gaudy 31-1 ledger. This is a team that successfully completed an unbeaten regular season campaign, obliterating the previous school record for wins (25, which was set last season) and earning their first conference championship since 2006 along the way. However, the RedHawks faced one of the softest schedules in the country, 274th overall to be exact, with nary a single opponent hailing from a major conference, let alone a ranked adversary. As a result, (Head Coach) Travis Steele’s troops came into all of this realizing that they needed to be perfect in order to punch their ticket to the big dance, with that mounting pressure clearly weighing upon them down the stretch. After narrowly avoiding disaster in a 110-108 overtime triumph in the finale at (bitter rival) Ohio, the Hawks finally came undone in the MAC Tournament, meeting defeat for the first time in nearly a calendar year thanks to a second-half blitz from Massachusetts. Needless to say, this did NOT help Miami’s chances of being selected, folks, as they fell to a 17-15 side that went 7-11 in the same league that they in turn went unbeaten in. So, what went wrong, you ask? Well, this was far from a defensive masterclass from the RedHawks, who allowed the Minutemen to shoot 52.2% from the field, including 32-of-52 from within the arc (61.5%) with a 54-30 edge in the paint. However, the most glaring difference here was the battle on the boards, particularly the offensive glass, where UMass manhandled Steele’s troops 15-7, which led to a wealth of second-chance opportunities, many of which were in the painted area. The MAC champions stayed in it thanks to their proficiency with the money ball (12-of-33 3FG), posting a +27 edge in that regard, but that capitulation on the glass was ultimately too difficult to overcome. All five starters scored in double-figures for the Hawks, with (Sophomore Forward Brant Byers leading the way with 17 points 5-of-11 shooting (45.5%), though he struggled from downtown in missing all but one of his seven attempts (14.3%). (Fellow Forward) Eian Elmer wasn’t far behind with 16 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and a block. That performance, which some felt was inevitable, left Miami at the mercy of the Selection Committee, who eventually called their name as an at-large bid, albeit as one of the very last to be selected. Now that is all behind them, what can we expect from the RedHawks in this dance? Well, despite the quality of their schedule, this has been one of the most prolific offensive teams in the country this season, ranking second overall in points (90.7) and first in field goal percentage (52.4%), all the while fielding a rotation that runs nine deep with seven players averaging in double-figures scoring. Now in his fourth year with the program, Steele (pictured below) has done an impressive job thus far, improving his side’s win total each year, going from 12-20 in 2021-2022 to this season’s 31-win triumph.
From a betting perspective, Miami has predictably been worse off against the spread than they have been straight-up, owning a 19-13 record in that regard, resulting in a net profit of 4.10 units thus far. However, this is a team that has certainly been in a funk on that front, as they are currently mired in their longest losing streak ATS at four games, including that aforementioned defeat against UMass as 6.5-point favorites. With that being said, the RedHawks find themselves receiving points from the oddsmakers tonight, which is significant given that they are 4-0 ATS thus far as underdogs. Dating back to the previous campaign, Steele’s charges are 5-1 ATS immediately following a SU loss, while covering nine of their last eleven outings versus foes with a win percentage north of .600. Furthermore, these birds have covered four of their last five tilts contested at neutral sites. All-time, this is a program that is making their eighteenth appearance in the NCAA Tournament, though this will be the first time that they have gone dancing since 2007, with their last victory on this stage coming back before the turn of the century during their surprise run to the 1999 Sweet 16. As for Steele, this is the first time that he has guided a team into the tourney, including his relatively uneventful tenure at Xavier. Looking at this particular matchup, the Hawks have never beaten SMU in two all-time encounters, though it has been quite some time since they have crossed paths. With all that on the table, the public is backing the birds tonight, with approximately 64% of all wagers placed upon the spread and even larger share of the total sum of money wagered thus far following suit. On the injury front, (Junior Guard) Evan Ipsaro has been since mid-February with a knee injury and isn’t expected to return until next season. This has been a big loss for Steele & Co, as the Kentucky native has averaged 13.9 points on an efficient 57.1% shooting, including 39.4% from three, along with 3.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists in a dozen games. Looking ahead, if Miami-Ohio does in fact bounce back tonight, then they will face (6 Seed) Tennessee in Friday’s first round.
Meanwhile, there was a point in time this season in which SMU (20-13, 8-10 in ACC) appeared to be a lock to participate in this NCAA Tournament, though given their standing among the First 4 field, something clearly changed along the way. This is a case of a team that suffered a late season swoon induced by the loss of a major piece of the puzzle, as (Senior Guard) B.J. Edwards was lost for the final six games due to an ankle injury and isn’t expected to return tonight. And therein lies the problem that the Selection Committee had to solve, folks: do you seed the Mustangs based on their total body of work or do you do place them according to their recent form, which has left a lot to be desired? (Head Coach) Andy Enfield’s troops were 19-8 prior to Edwards’ loss, only to drop five out of six without him, leaving them with a losing record in conference play and a run of just two games in the ACC Tournament. The Knoxville native was part of an experienced backcourt alongside (Junior Guard) Kevin “Boopie” Miller, averaging 12.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 4.9 assists, while leading the conference with an industrious 2.3 steals per game. Vested Guards have a long history of making noise in the big dance, which is why Edwards’ absence is such a blow to Southern Methodist, who find themselves among the tourney field for the first time since 2017. In just his second season in Dallas, Enfield (pictured below) has turned the program around in relatively short order, winning 20+ games in consecutive seasons for the first time in nearly a decade. Indeed, the 56-year-old is doing good work following his ousting from USC, where he led the Trojans to five NCAA Tournaments in eleven seasons. His Mustangs are one of the more prolific offensive teams in the country, ranking 23rd in points scored (84.2), 24th in both field goal percentage (49.0%) and three-point percentage (37.4%), along with 30th in assists (16.9). Again, a lot of that has had to do with their Guard play, with the triumvirate of Edwards, Miller, and Kevin Pierre combining for 49.5 points, 14.7 rebounds, and 13.3 assists, along with 185 three-pointers with all three of them netting over 37.0% of their attempts. In their six outings without Edwards, SMU has been diminished on that front, averaging 72.5 points on 44.3% shooting, including 35.7% from downtown, with barely more assists (12.5) than turnovers (11.3). Compounding matters is that those figures are mitigated by an 86-69 romp over lowly Syracuse in the opening round of the ACC Tournament, which was the only time during this stretch in which they cracked 80 points, while dishing out 20 assists in comparison to committing just 7 turnovers. It was a vastly different a day later against Louisville, who bested them in a 62-58 affair. In a game that played at a real slog, the Mustangs were actually the better shooting side at 42.9%, though they struggled to move or take care of the basketball (10/11 Assist/Turnovers Ratio), while making only ONE of their three free-throw attempts. And this is where the game was decided, folks, as the Cardinals outscored them by 13 points from the charity stripe, which has been a real problem for Enfield of late. Over the last four outings, they have netted just 27 free-throws, which breaks down an average of 6.75 makes per game, while being edged out in that category by 18 points during this period.
From a betting perspective, SMU is just 15-18 against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 4.50 units thus far. This is a team hasn’t managed to cover three consecutive games at any point this season, which is relevant given that they are coming off a 2-0 showing ATS in the ACC Tournament. The Mustangs are 8-11 ATS thus far when favored by the oddsmakers, including 5-8 AT when favored by at least 7.5 points, which is precisely where the spread clocks in tonight. Enfield’s charges have failed to cover four straight contests versus foes with a win percentage north of .600, with five losses in a row coming against adversaries owning a SU winning record. For what it’s worth, Southern Methodist is also in the midst of an 0-6 slide ATS on Wednesdays. All-time, this is a program that is making their thirteenth appearance in the NCAA Tournament, with this marking their first since 2017, though it should be noted that they haven’t advanced past the first weekend since 1967. However, Enfield has enjoyed quite a bit of success in the big dance over the course of his coaching career, with seven previous trips to the tourney between his stays at Florida Gulf Coast and USC. Of course, his shocking run to the 2013 Sweet 16 with FGCU put his name on the map, while the Trojans’ march to the Elite 8 eight years later remains his high-water mark. As we discussed earlier, the public doesn’t seem to be overly enamored with the Mustangs covering the spread, particularly given their form without the aforementioned Edwards, as roughly 34% of all wagers being placed on that front are backing the ponies, with an even smaller share of the total volume of money being wagered following suit. Looking ahead, if SMU manage to prove victorious tonight, then they will face off against Tennessee in Friday’s first round.