12:15 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Ohio State -2.5, Total: 146.5
The First Round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament begins this afternoon in Greenville, as the (8 Seed) Ohio State Buckeyes and (9 Seed) TCU Horned Frogs clash in an evenly matched affair featuring two teams playing their best basketball of the season. After missing the big dance in each of the previous three years, Ohio State (21-12, 12-8 in BIG 10) is back under a familiar face, that of (Head Coach) Jake Diebler, who has done a solid job of putting this program back to together in relatively short order. Of course, Diebler served as a video assistant under (former HC) Thad Matta during their successful run through the 2010s, before returning to Columbus to serve as chief lieutenant under Matta’s successor, Chris Holtmann in 2019. Following Holtmann’s dismissal midway through the 2023-24 campaign, Diebler did well enough to earn the full-time gig, repaying his employers with a tourney appearance in just his second full season on the sidelines. Residing in the BIG 10, the Buckeyes have faced a tough schedule this year, 16th in Division I to be exact, though it should be noted that they are just 2-8 versus Ap-ranked opponents thus far, with their two victories coming against the likes of Wisconsin (86-69) and Purdue (82-74), both of came at Value City Arena. With that being said, OSU did generally play that competition closely, what with their two losses to (1 Seed) Michigan being the only matchups that were decided by more than eight points. Diebler has put together a balanced team with plenty of size and athleticism, but what makes them dangerous is their Backcourt, which is one of the most prolific in this tournament field. (Senior Guard) Bruce Thornton and (Sophomore Guard) John Mobley present plenty of issues for opposing defenses, with the former ranking fourth in the BIG 10 at 20.2 points per game and leading the league in effective field goal percentage (63.0%). Thornton (pictured below) has been on quite a tear of late, averaging 23.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.0 steal over the last three games, all the while posting deadly efficient shooting splits of 62.2/46.2/89.5 along the way. He very nearly led Ohio State to an upset of Michigan in last week’s BIG 10 Tournament, a 71-67 affair that was much closer than anyone could have predicted. Despite shooting 37.9% as a team, the Buckeyes compensated for that by being the better team from beyond the arc (+9), while also holding their own with the Wolverines, who are one of the largest teams in the nation, on the boards (30-31), utilizing 9 offensive rebounds to create precious second-chance opportunities around the rim. Thornton and Mobley combined for 34 points on 12-of-28 shooting (42.8%), including 4-of-12 from downtown (33.3%), with 5 rebounds and assists apiece. (Junior Forward) Devin Royal was very industrious against Michigan’s gauntlet of trees, totaling 13 points and 11 rebounds despite giving away anywhere between 3-6 inches in the paint. However, where this game was ultimately decided was in transition, as OSU was made to pay for their mistakes in the open court, with their bitter rivals authoring a commanding 22-6 advantage on the break, which is to be expected when you have one team playing on a back-to-back while the other had enjoyed four days of rest.
From a betting perspective, Ohio State come into this afternoon’s opening round of the big dance at 18-15 against the spread, parlaying to a slim profit of 1.20 units. However, this has definitely been one of the field’s hotter teams of late, covering EIGHT of their last nine outings, including each of their last five tilts, the most recent being that aforementioned narrow defeat against the Wolverines in which they were sizable underdogs (+12.). With that being said, the Buckeyes are favored in this one, folks, owning a 9-10 ledger ATS when laying points, though it should be noted that they are 6-2 ATS over their last eight such contests. Diebler’s troops are in the midst of a 4-game winning streak ATS versus adversaries owning a win percentage north of .500, though have traditionally underwhelmed on this front in the NCAA Tournament, covering just TWO of their last thirteen games on this stage. All-time, this is a program that is making their 37th appearance in the tourney, posting a 58-34 record along the way, featuring eleven Final 4s and winning their lone National Championship in 1960. With all that being said, OSU is back in the dance after a 3-year drought, though it has been quite a while since they have managed to advance past the first weekend; 2013 to be exact, when Brutus & Co marched all the way to the Elite 8. Looking at this particular matchup, Ohio State has crossed paths with TCU on four occasions and have never lost to the Frogs, though it has been a very looooonnnng time since they met (1969). Given how well they performed in last week’s BIG 10 Tournament, it is understandable that public is backing the Buckeyes today, with approximately 57% of all wagers placed upon the spread sporting scarlet and gray. On the injury front, keep an eye on the status of (Junior Guard) Taison Chatman, who missed that affair with Michigan due to a groin injury suffered earlier in the conference tournament. The Minneapolis native is a key component of Diebler’s bench, averaging 4.5 points on 47.1% shooting, along with 1.9 rebounds and 0.9 assists in 13.2 minutes of action. Looking ahead, if Ohio State is victorious this afternoon, then they will advance to Saturday’s Second Round where the winner of (1 Seed) Duke and (16 Seed) Siena await (it would be a shocker if it wasn’t the Blue Devils).
Meanwhile, it felt as if TCU (22-11, 11-7 in BIG XII) wouldn’t come close to making the NCAA Tournament following a dismal 2-6 midseason swoon to begin conference play, but we’ll credit (Head Coach) Jamie Dixon and his charges for showing the requisite resilience to turn things around and reach this point. Winners of nine of their final eleven games, these Horned Frogs have found their form at the right time, earning a pair of top-10 victories along the way, which no doubt endeared themselves to the Selection Committee. Then again, this is a team that has really performed well against some of the best teams in the country; these toads have secured three wins over the likes of Florida (84-80), Iowa State (62-55), and Texas Tech (73-65), who thus own a 1 Seed, a 2 Seed, and a 5 Seed in this tournament field. Furthermore, they pushed another 1 seed, Michigan, to the limit in a 67-63 affair, while regularly waging war within the stifling BIG XII over the past two months. While this isn’t a particularly big or deep group, Dixon (pictured below) certainly maximizes the talent at his disposal, with (Forwards) David Punch and Xavier Edmonds being the most notable performers. Interchangeable, Punch and Edmonds have similar builds and have authored similar stat lines, combining for 26.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.3 steals, and 2.9 blocks. The legendary John Wooden famously stated “Never mistake activity with achievement”, though activity has nonetheless been the key to TCU’s success during this current stretch; the Horned Frogs are logging 8.5 steals, 11.6 offensive rebounds, 3.5 blocks, and 12.6 turnovers, all of which helps create more opportunities for themselves on the offensive end, helping to mitigate their own shooting woes. They also get to the charity stripe quite a bit, averaging an industrious 25.8 free-throw attempts over this period and outscoring their foes by a margin of 6.2 points in that regard. However, it would a similar situation to that of their opponent this afternoon in last week’s 78-73 loss in the second round of the BIG XII Tournament, as a tired TCU side eventually succumbed to a well-rested Kansas team. Dixon’s outfit shot 39.1% from the field, including a disappointing 16-of-39 from within the arc (41.0%), while committing more turnovers (13) than assists (10). The biggest disparity though, was ironically free-throws, which finally worked against the Frogs, who were outscored 30-14 from the stripe. Tired legs can oftentimes lead to a plethora of fouls, which was clearly the case in this one, as the Jayhawks’ freshman phenom, Darryn Peterson, nearly eclipsed TCU all by himself (13-of-16 FT). In a losing effort, Punch put in a strong showing at the office, posting totals of 24 points, 10 rebounds, and a pair of blocks, though he was responsible for 5 of his team’s turnovers.
From a betting perspective, TCU also comes into this First Round showdown in Greenville at 18-15 against the spread, resulting in a small net profit of 1.20 units. However, whereas today’s counterpart is in the midst of their strongest run of the season in that regard, this is a team that has already enjoyed such a stretch and has thus experienced the cooling-down effect. The Horned Frogs had covered seven of nine outings, including five in a row at one point prior to the BIG XII Tournament, only to go 0-2 ATS in that dance, which includes that aforementioned defeat to the Jayhawks as 4.5-point underdogs. This has been a role that Dixon’s troops have otherwise relished this season, folks, as they have posted an 8-3 ledger ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, which is precisely where they find themselves this afternoon. Unfortunately, it should also be noted that these toads are 1-4 ATS over their past five games immediately following a SU defeat. All-time, this is a program that is making just their thirteenth appearance in the NCAA Tournament, owning a 7-11 ledger in the big dance, though it has been quite some time that they too advanced past the opening weekend of festivities; it was 1968 when they marched all the way to the Elite 8, when they were members of the old Southwest Conference. As for Dixon, he is no stranger to the tourney, what with sixteen appearances under his belt between his respective stays with Pittsburgh and TCU, sporting a 14-15 ledger, while leading the Panthers to a pair of Sweet 16s and an Elite 8. As we covered earlier, these programs haven’t crossed paths in over 55 years, with the Horned Frogs failing to secure victory in any of those four encounters. We also touched upon the public’s preference in this matchup, which is interesting to say the least, for despite the majority of the wagers backing the Buckeyes, roughly 64% of the total sum of money being waged on this affair is actually favoring the Frogs. On the injury front, Dixon should have a full complement of players at his disposal with no major injuries to be reported at this time. Looking ahead, if TCU manages to pull this minor upset, then they will be looking to spring a much larger one later this weekend, as they will in all likelihood face off against Duke, who are the number one overall seed in this tournament, in Saturday’s Second Round.