7:30 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Knicks -5.5, Total: 214.5
With the NBA Playoffs looming right around the corner, it’s time for a playoff rematch between bitter rivals, as the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks renew acquaintances in tonight’s showdown from Madison Square Garden. Coming into this season, the Celtics (54-25, 2nd in Eastern Conference) were very much viewed as a team in transition embarking on a gap year brought on by heavy losses in personnel. Boston bid farewell to several key components to their 2023-2024 championship run, including the likes of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, while also planning on competing without (All-NBA Forward) Jayson Tatum for the bulk of the campaign due to a ruptured Achilles suffered in last Spring’s Eastern Conference Semifinals. Indeed, there was quite a void left by the 5-time All-NBA selection, who averaged 26.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.1 steals a year ago. With that in mind, many pundits predicted that the Shamrocks would simply take the L on this season and enjoy the premium draft pick that came with a poor record, ultimately serving as little more than a blip in the long-form narrative of this successful run. However, (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla was having absolutely none of that, as the Celtics have utterly outperformed expectations, for with a win tonight they will clinch the second seed in the East. So, how have they done it, you ask? Well, losing so many pieces of the puzzle altered the chemistry of the rotation dramatically, but in the end all it did was force Boston to evolve. (All-Star Swingman) Jaylen Brown stepped into the team’s leading role and has thus enjoyed the finest campaign of career thus far, posting personal bests in a slew of categories, including points (28.8), rebounds (7.0), and assists (5.2), while many players that were occupying roles on the bench, including Derrick White and Payton Pritchard, have flourished with more responsibilities. Mazzulla has also placed more of an emphasis on the defensive end of the hardwood, with his charges shipping the fewest points in the NBA (106.9), while ranking second in both field goal percentage (44.1%) and two-point percentage (50.9%) allowed, along with fifth in defensive rebounding percentage (75.7%) and free-throw/field goal attempt ratio (18.9%). And now, they have their star back in the lineup as Tatum (pictured below) continues to get back into rhythm after returning on March 6th; in fifteen games, the 28-year-old has averaged 21.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, 5.1 assists, and 1.4 steals on shooting splits of 41.9/33.8/82.6. When we last saw him, he led the charge in Boston’s 113-102 victory over Charlotte, scoring 23 points on 8-of-15 shooting (53.3%), and amassing five rebounds and four assists. Trailing 31-20 at the end of the first quarter, the hosts put their foot on the gas the rest of the way, outscoring the Hornets 93-71 over the final three periods, catching fire from the perimeter with 17-of-42 shooting from downtown (40.5%). Brown poured in a team-high 35 points along with 9 assists, while White and Pritchard added a dozen points apiece.
From a betting perspective, the Celtics come into tonight’s return to the Big Apple at a stellar 47-32 against the spread, resulting in a healthy net profit of 10.73 units. Indeed, this is a team that spent the bulk of the campaign punching above their perceived weight class following the exodus of talent that left in the offseason, or Tatum’s case was sidelined due to injury. Boston has been on a heater of late, covering SEVEN of their last eight outings, including each of their last four with the most recent being that aforementioned triumph over Charlotte. Mazzula’s troops are currently on a 6-game win streak ATS when playing on one day of rest and are also in the midst of a 4-0 run ATS immediately after scoring 100+ points in the previous game. Furthermore, they are 6-4 ATS over their last ten contests either on the road or as an underdog, though it should be noted that they have covered only one of their last five ventures to MSG. Looking at this particular matchup, the Celtics are 4-6 straight-up over their last ten meetings with the Knicks, which dates back to last May’s fateful series in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Interestingly, the home team had won and covered six consecutive encounters until the Shamrocks met defeat in Beantown back in early February, an ugly 111-89 affair in which the hosts shot just 37.0% from the field. Under Mazzula’s watch, this is a team that has really emphasized the money ball, believing that given the relative quality of their shooters, targeting a certain volume of treys will inevitably give them the edge. While that approach ultimately led to their last NBA Title, it also means that things can go south quickly when they do have a poor shooting night. This was certainly one of those, folks; Boston went 7-of-41 from beyond the arc (17.1%), leading to a 21-point deficit in that regard. Mind you, this affair also took place roughly a month before Tatum made his return from the torn Achilles suffered against New York in last year’s Eastern Semis. Speaking of injuries, Mazzula will in all likelihood be without the aforementioned Brown, who has been nursing a case of Achilles tendinitis of late. With the playoffs set to begin next week, it is logical to preserve the 5-time All-Star for what could be another lengthy postseason run. As for the rest of the rotation, White (knee), (sharpshooting Forward) Sam Hauser (back), and (unheralded big man) Neemias Queta (toe) are all listed as questionable with a variety of ailments and are thus game-time decisions. Looking ahead, the Celtics have two more game left on the books before embarking on the playoffs, hosting the Pelicans and Magic at TD Garden.
Meanwhile, in the wake of the Celtics’ losses, the Knicks (51-28, 3rd in Eastern Conference) were expected to run away with the East, though that simply has not been the case. Coming into the campaign, New York made a bold decision and parted ways with (former Head Coach) Tom Thibodeau in favor of hiring Mike Brown, in an attempt to get over the proverbial hump and into the NBA Finals for the first time since the turn of the century. Thibodeau did a lot of good things during his reign, leading the Knickerbockers to the Eastern Conference Finals last May, but there was plenty of criticism laid at his feet for the lack of depth in his rotation, along with what had become a fairly predictable offensive approach. In turn, Brown was brought in to liven things up and diversify the attack, while also utilizing his bench more in an attempt to ensure that his biggest guns wouldn’t be worn out come the playoffs. With the regular season almost completed, this is a team that ranks in the top in many categories on both ends of the floor, averaging 116.8 points (10th Overall) and shipping 110.4 points (5th Overall), while also going deeper into their bench, with six players outside of the starting five logging over 11.0 minutes per contest. As a result, we have seen a healthier starting lineup, with (All-Star Point Guard) Jalen Brunson once again leading the way. Brunson (pictured below) has posted 26.0 points per game on 46.4% shooting overall, including 37.0% from three, along with 3.4 rebounds and 6.8 assists. With all that being said, this is also a team that has nothing short of streaky; the Knicks have gone to win four or more games on five different occasions, though have also dropped at least three in a row four times as well. Sure, we can chalk some of that up to a team adapting to a new coaching staff and vice versa, but it should be noted that at one point Brown (pictured below alongside Brunson) opted to return to some of the defensive principals that his predecessor had installed. Of course, the 56-year-old will ultimately be decided on how his charges perform in the postseason, which is ironically setting up for a potential rematch with the Celtics in the East Semis. With New York trailing by three games in the standings, there is a possibility that if they were to win out and Boston loses their final three outings, home court in said series would go to the Knicks. However, to do so, they will need a stronger performance than they offered in their latest outing, a narrow 108-105 victory at the Hawks. The visitors shot an impressive 50.0% from the field, though were just 11-of-33 from beyond the arc (33.3%) and were far too wasteful in possession, committing 17 turnovers that led to 15 points for their opponent. They also struggled to close out on Atlanta’s shooters, allowing 16-of-42 shooting from three (38.1%), and were rather fortunate that it wasn’t 17-of-43, as C.J. McCollum’s halfcourt buzzer-beater at the end of the game was ultimately overruled by the officials, saving the visiting side from the prospect of overtime. Brunson led the way with 30 points and 13 assists, while (Swingman) O.G. Anunoby and (Center) Karl-Anthony Towns added 22 and 21 points respectively, with the former drilling 4 treys and the latter piling up 11 rebounds.
From a betting perspective, the Knicks come into tonight’s renewal of hostilities at 41-38 against the spread, resulting in a net loss of 1.73 units. This has been a hard team to get a handle on throughout this campaign, as they have been capable of going on long runs of success while also flipping the script and falling into a lengthy malaise. New York has put together five different stretches consisting of four or more consecutive covers, while also suffering four dips of just as many successive defeats ATS. Case in point: Brown’s troops come into this affair covering each of their previous two outings, including that aforementioned nailbiter versus Atlanta, though those back-to-back covers were preceded by FIVE straight non-covers. The Knickerbockers have split their last ten home games ATS (5-5), while posting a 4-6 ledger ATS in their past ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they have covered only one of their last five games immediately following a cover, while matching that record against foes residing above .500. Oh, and for what it’s worth, this team has really failed to make an impression on Thursday nights, failing to cover each of their last FIVE outings played on this particular day of the week. Looking at this particular matchup, the Knicks are 6-4 SU/ATS versus the Celtics over their last ten encounters, including 4-1 ATS over the past five meetings, with three straight covers at Madison Square Garden. As we touched upon earlier, their latest affair, that aforementioned 111-89 victory in NYC was about as one-sided as it gets. The hosts shot a stellar 48.2% from the field, including 14-of-35 from beyond the arc (40.0%), outscoring Boston by 21 points on that front, while dishing out 23 assists opposed to committing just eight turnovers. New York also held considerable advantages in points off turnovers (+11) and in transition (+12), with Brunson playing the role of protagonist with a game-high 31 points on an efficient 12-of-21 shooting (57.1%), including 4-of-8 from three (50.0%), along with 3 rebounds and 8 assists. Given how well they have played the Celtics of late, particularly in the Big Apple, it is interesting to see that the public views tonight’s contest in a very different light, with roughly 64% of all wagers placed upon the spread taking the points and backing the Shamrocks, while a slightly larger share of the overall money being wagered on this front following suit. On the injury front, keep an eye on the status of (veteran Center) Micthell Robinson, who left the win over the Hawks prematurely with a lower body malady. The big fella may not offer much offensively, but he is an indispensable force on the glass, averaging 4.2 offensive boards, playing a major role in his team ranking fifth overall in offensive rebounding percentage (29.6%). Looking ahead, the Knicks will close out the regular season at home against the Raptors and Hornets, who are each doing their best to avoid participating in the Play-In Tournament.