10:00 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Clippers -4.5, Total: 220.5
The NBA’s Play-In Tournament continues tonight in the City of Angels, as the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers face off in a matchup of two former contenders who appear to be at the end of their cycle with one last opportunity at postseason glory. That notion of chasing faded glory describes the current state of the Warriors (37-45, 10th in Western Conference) perfectly, as (Head Coach) Steve Kerr’s charges enter this Play-In as literally the last team to get into the tournament in the mighty West. From 2014-15 campaign to 2021-22, this is a franchise that posted a stellar win percentage of .682, advanced to SIX NBA Finals, and won FOUR Larry O’Brien Trophies, all the while making an indelible impact on the sport, with their sublime blend of shooting, spacing, and switching, informing a dynamic change across the Association. However, all dynasties come to an end, and if we’re being honest, Golden State fell off a few years ago, though have fought to remain relevant as their competition has passed them by. Since hoisting their last NBA Title, the Dubs have largely regressed to mediocrity with a win percentage of .533, reaching the playoffs twice, though progressing no further than the Conference Semifinals. Many of the stalwarts during their reign have either left the team in the offseason or simply aged beyond their prime, while their attempts to reload with quality veterans has blown up in their face. At the age of 38, (2-time MVP) Steph Curry continues to be a joy to watch, averaging 26.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.1 steals, while shooting 39.3% from beyond the arc, though a variety of injuries rendered him as basically a part-time performer, missing 39 games on the season. Last season, the franchise acquired the services of (All-NBA Swingman) Jimmy Butler at the Trade Deadline in an attempt to prolong Curry’s (pictured below) window of contention, though that all came to a crashing halt when Butler tore his ACL in mid-January. During this period, the Dubs also finally jettisoned (wantaway Forward) Jonathan Kuminga in a deal with the Hawks, bringing an end to an ongoing saga in which the promising talent continued to feud with the coaching staff. Put it altogether and there really hasn’t been much left to write home about for a group that really struggled over the final second half of the campaign; post All-Star Break, the Warriors went just 8-19, with their defense getting torched to the tune of 118.2 points on 49.7% shooting, including 37.6% from three. Since Curry after missing roughly three months to injury, the team won just one of their final four games, losing the finale in Inglewood against the Clippers, a 115-110 affair that served as a precursor to tonight’s Play-In. The visitors shot just 41.9% from the field, including a disappointing 11-of-39 from downtown (28.2%), though managed to keep it close thanks to volume at the charity stripe (27-of-32). Curry led the way with 24 points on an efficient 7-of-14 shooting (50.0%), 4-of-9 from three (44.4%) and 6-of-8 from the stripe (75.0%), along with 6 rebounds, 3 assists, and a steal, though the only other two starters to score in double figures were (sharpshooting Center) Kristaps Porzingis and (young Guard) Brandon Podziemski, combining for 22 points on a poor 6-of-18 shooting (33.3%).
From a betting perspective, the Warriors have certainly been one of the least profitable teams in the Association to wager upon, posting a 36-46-1 ledger against the spread, resulting in a net loss of 14.18 units. Granted, there are a variety of reasons for this, ranging from the lengthy absences of both Curry and Butler to the young upstarts that filled the void, but the biggest factor in this poor run of form is simple: this is a team that has been living off their successful past, particularly in the eyes of the betting public, and the oddsmakers are keenly aware of it. Since January 20th, Golden State is a miserable 13-24-1 ATS, while coming off their lone push of the campaign in that aforementioned finale in Inglewood (+5). Kerr’s troops are 3-6-1 ATS in their last ten trips away from Chase Center, are 4-5-1 ATS over their past ten outings as an underdog, and have failed to cover five consecutive contests on the road versus an adversary with a winning home record. Furthermore, they are in the midst of a 4-game losing skid ATS immediately after scoring 100+ points, while going five straight tilts without a successful cover. Looking at this particular matchup, the Warriors have really struggled against the Clippers of late, with only ONE cover in their last ten meetings (1-8-1 ATS), while matching that ledger in their past ten trips to Los Angeles. Interestingly, the Under is on a 4-game streak both overall and in SoCal. In four meetings this season, Golden State is 1-3 SU and have really had a rough go at it on the offensive end of the hardwood, shooting just 40.9% from the field and 31.8% from beyond the arc, while getting hammered on the glass (-5.5). In three of those affairs, Curry has averaged 23.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 5.7 assists on shooting splits of 44.2/31.3/87.5, while over the course of his illustrious career he posted a stronger stat line of 25.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 5.9 assists on 49.9% shooting overall and a blistering 45.5% from three. On the injury front, both Butler (knee) and (young Swingman) Moses Moody (knee) are out for the season with various maladies, while Kerr is also without (Rookie Guard) LJ Cryer, missed the final two games of the regular season and it out indefinitely with a with a sprained right ankle. However, the more glaring issue is the status of (veteran Forward) Draymond Green, who is listed as questionable with a sore lower back. the 36-year-old has long been a foundational piece of Golden State’s success; the 4-time All-Star, 9-time All-Defense selection, and 2016-17 Defensive Player of the Year is not only one of the most versatile defenders in NBA history, but has also served as a playmaking fulcrum, dishing out an average of 5.6 assists over the course of his career. This season, Green has averaged 8.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.6 blocks, while missing fourteen games. Simply put, this is a far more formidable team when the Michigan State product is in the lineup. Looking ahead, if the Warriors manage to finally turn the tables on the Clippers, then they will be heading to Phoenix for Friday night’s Play-In finale against the Suns, with the winner advancing to the playoffs to battle the (defending NBA Champion) Thunder.
Meanwhile, the Clippers (42-40, 9th in Western Conference) are in a similar boat to their opponent tonight, though the road that they traveled to get here has been altogether different. Back in 2019, the franchise made a series of ambitious moves and were hailed as the successor to Golden State’s run of dominance out West, though for a variety of reasons ultimately failed to live up to those lofty expectations, leaving many hard-pressed to even recognize the current group. Just this past summer, Los Angeles looked to build upon a strong finish to the previous campaign, adding the likes of (former All-Star Guard) Bradley Beal to form a new Big 3 alongside (perennial All-Stars) Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. However, Beal was available following a buyout with the Suns, though would be lost for the season after just SIX games due to undergoing surgery to repair a fractured hip. Then, in early February, the oft-traveled Harden would be traded to the Cavaliers in exchange for (Point Guard) Darius Garland and a second-round pick. This was now a team speeding their way to a rebuild, as (criminally underrated Center) Ivica Zubac was the next to be traded away, leaving Leonard (pictured below) as the lone piece from that ambitious summer of 2019. With that being said, the 2-time Finals MVP has been at the crux of a scandal that rocked the franchise prior to the beginning of the campaign, as documents were unearthed claiming that the Clippers circumvented the salary cap through ghost companies in order to sign Kawhi to his current deal. There have been persistent rumors that the NBA’s investigation has collected enough evidence to bring the hammer down on the franchise, which is why they have shifted their focus towards collecting as many assets as possible for the inevitable rebuild, while Leonard himself could also be facing a suspension with his future uncertain as he is set to enter unrestricted Free Agency this summer. Of course, the irony of it all is that the 34-year-old has put together arguably his finest (and healthiest) season since his debut campaign in Los Angeles. After missing the entire 2021-22 term, and large swaths of 2022-23 and 2024-25, he has played in 65 games this season, reaching that threshold for just the second time in a decade, averaging a career-best 27.9 points per game on 50.5% shooting, including 38.7% from downtown, along with 6.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.9 steals. It must be a bittersweet feeling for the fan base as they watch the final days of his tenure with the team, which could potentially come to an end tonight. He didn’t participate in Sunday’s finale against the Warriors, as (Head Coach) Ty Lue opted to keep him fresh for tonight’s Play-In. As it turned out, he didn’t need the two-way dynamo, as the Clippers earned a 115-110 victory in front of their home crowd. Los Angeles held advantages in three-pointers (+9), assists (+3), points off turnovers (+3), and points in the paint (+8), which was enough to give them the overall edge. Garland led the way with 15 points and 6 assists, while the bench really carried the team with the likes of Benedict Mathurin, Jordan Miller, and Bogdan Bogdanovic combining for 51 points 16 rebounds, and 14 assists.
From a betting perspective, the Clippers have authored a far more respectable showing against the spread (41-40-1), though have nonetheless been mediocre with a net loss of 2.73 units. Like their opponent tonight, this is a team that hasn’t been very convincing on that front of late, covering just five of their final seventeen games to close the regular season (5-11-1 ATS), which includes that aforementioned push against the Warriors in the finale. Los Angeles is 4-5-1 ATS in their last ten games at Intuit Dome, while mirroring that ledger over their past ten outings as a favorite. Lue’s troops have covered six consecutive contests when enjoying at least two days of rest, and are int he midst of a 10-2 stretch ATS versus foes with a road winning percentage below .500, with both trends proving relevant tonight. As we touched upon earlier, the Clips have OWNED the Dubs for a while now, posting an 8-2 record SU and 8-1-1 ATS, while winning NINE of their last ten encounters in the City of Angels (8-1-1 ATS). Furthermore, they are 6-3-1 ATS over the last ten meetings when favored by the oddsmakers. In their four affairs from this season, LA has averaged 102.8 points on 45.3% shooting overall, including just 29.5% from beyond the arc, with their biggest issue being taking care of the basketball. The Clippers have always been a high-isolation team living off midrange jumpers, with that being no less true in this matchup, dishing out just 20.0 assists in comparison to committing 15.0 turnovers. Leonard featured in three of those tilts, averaging 21.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.3 steals on shooting splits of 46.4/222.2/100.0. Over the course of his career (35 games), Kawhi has generally showed out against the Dubs, posting averages of 20.5 points on an efficient 52.9% shooting, including 41.5% from three, along with 6.7 rebounds and 3.1 assists. Of course, he was involved in one of the biggest what-ifs in playoffs history, as he suffered a sprained ankle landing on the foot of a defender in Game One of the 2017 Western Conference Finals, missing the rest of the series as a result as his Spurs were swept in four games. Given how poorly their opponent has performed of late, the public appears willing to overlook the outcome of their last meeting, as approximately 53% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing Los Angeles, with a slightly larger share of the total sum of money being wagered following suit (54%). On the injury front, Lue & Co are dealing with their own issues, as (young Center) Isaiah Jakcson, who was acquired at the Trade Deadline in a deal with the Pacers, will miss a ninth straight game due to a sprained right ankle. The Kentucky product has been productive in limited minutes since arriving in Inglewood, averaging 7.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks in seventeen appearances off the bench. Of course, keep an eye on the oft-injured Leonard too, who was held out of the season finale in what is in all likelihood a caution for tonight’s Play-In. Looking ahead, if the Clippers handle their business at home tonight, then they will face off against the Suns on Friday Night for the right to advance to the playoffs for a showdown with the mighty Thunder.