9:00 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Spurs -10.5, Total: 221.5
The opening weekend of the 2026 NBA Playoffs comes to a close with a pair of franchises making their long-awaited return to the postseason after suffering respective droughts, as the San Antonio Spurs host the Portland Trail Blazers, who are fresh off their triumph in the Play-In Tournament. For a variety of reasons, some good and some bad, this has been nothing short of an eventful campaign for the Trail Blazers (42-40, 8th in Western Conference), who overcame a seismic scandal that forced an early coaching change, only to find their footing over the season’s final third, eventually punching their playoff ticket in the Play-In. Indeed, the vibes began good enough as the franchise welcomed back one of its most decorated heroes, (longtime Point Guard) Damian Lillard for a delayed second tour of duty; rehabbing from a torn Achilles, the 7-time All-NBA selection returned to the team that drafted him back in 2012. Joining him was (2-time NBA Champion) Jrue Holiday, who ironically was included in the multi-team deal that traded Lillard to Milwaukee in 2023, with the two veteran floor generals serving as valuable mentors to a young rotation. However, everything changed when the FBI revealed its findings from an investigation in an illegal betting scheme that involved numerous figures, including (Head Coach) Chauncey Billups, who was placed on administrative leave by the NBA shortly following his indictment. Filling the void is Thiago Splitter, who endured a rough first few months on the job before finally balancing the equation. The Blazers were sitting at 23-28 on February 3rd, though would go on to finish the campaign on a 19-12 run in which they outscored their opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points on 46.2% shooting. During this stretch, many of their young prospects came of age, including Toumani Camara, Shaedon Sharpe, and Donovan Clingan, though the most notable is (All-Star Swingman) Deni Avdija, the first Israeli-born player in NBA history. After struggling to grow in the prevailing wilderness that is the Washington Wizards, Avidja (pictured below) is thriving in his second year in Portland, posting career-highs in a slew of categories, including points (24.2) and assists (6.7), resulting in the first All-Star selection of his career. When he arrived in the Pacific Northwest, the 25-year-old had the reputation for being an active defender despite a rather raw offensive skillset, though it is clear that a change of scenery is all that was required to tap into his lofty potential. He played a HUGE role in the Trail Blazers’ 114-110 victory over the Suns in Tuesday night’s Play-In, erupting for 41 points on a stellar 15-of-22 shooting (68.2%), along with 8-of-13 shooting from the charity stripe (61.5%), 7 rebounds, a dozen assists, and a pair of blocks. 14 of his point total came in the fourth quarter, as the visitors rallied back from a harrowing 24-4 run courtesy of Phoenix, responding with a 25-10 run of their own to close the game out. When it was all said and done, Portland shot 45.5% from the field, but really made the hosts pay from the perimeter, netting 17-of-47 treys (36.2%) to outscore them by 24 points in that regard, which ultimately proved to be the difference. Holiday was the only other starter to reach double-figures in points (21), while the tandem of Sharpe and (Veteran Forward) Jerami Grant added a combined 28 points off the bench.
From a betting perspective, the Trail Blazers return to the playoffs punching above their weight against the spread (44-38), parlaying to a net return of 2.00 units. This is a team that has been a solid play in that regard of late, covering nine of their last thirteen outings, including that aforementioned upset of the Suns in Tuesday’s Play-In (+3). Portland has split their last ten trips away from the Pacific Northwest (5-5 ATS), while matching that ledger ATS over their past ten contests as an underdog. Furthermore, Splitter’s troops are in the midst of a 5-1 stretch ATS immediately after shipping 100+ points in the previous matchup, though have generally struggled against the elite teams in the Association, covering only one of their last six games versus opposition owning a win percentage north of .600, which is the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their thirty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, though as we stated earlier, this is their first since 2021. The Blazers are just 11-25 in first-round series, advancing past the opening round on just three occasions since 2001. Looking at this particular matchup, they have crossed paths with the Spurs in the playoffs four times (1-3), with their most recent encounter coming in the 2014 Western Conference Semifinals, a one-sided gentleman’s sweep (1-4). As for more recent history, Portland has won just three of their last ten affairs with San Antonio, including one out of three this season, a narrow 113-110 victory in early January. However, these teams did clash little over a week ago, as the Blazers fell 112-101 in Southern Texas. The visitors trailed by as many as 17 points in this one, though held their own from three (+3) and in the paint (+4), along with respectable showings in both rebounds (-2) and assists (-2). Unfortunately, where they lost the plot was at the charity stripe, where they netted just 5-of-10 free-throws (50.0%) and were outscored by 10 points, while also coughing up the rock 16 times for 26 points going in the opposite direction. Avdija led the team with 29 points on an efficient 13-of-21 shooting from the field (61.9%), with 6 rebounds, and 6 assists, though was responsible for 6 turnovers along the way. It must have been a bittersweet night for Splitter, who broke into the Association with the Spurs back in 2010, with the towering Brazilian international helping them to win their last NBA Championship in 2014. Given their inexperience and how they’ve fared against San Antonio of late, the public isn’t backing Portland much at all, with approximately 30% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread riding with the visitors, while an even smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered has followed suit (26%). On the injury front, Splitter has a largely healthy team at his disposal, with the only absence being that of Lillard, who has missed the entire campaign rehabbing from a ruptured Achilles tendon suffered late last season. Looking ahead, this series will remain at Frost Bank Center for Game Two, which will be played on Tuesday Night.
Meanwhile, the Spurs (60-32, 2nd in Western Conference) are also returning to the playoffs after a lengthy drought, which should serve as a warning sign for the rest of the West. From the 1997-98 campaign to 2018-19, this is a franchise that NEVER missed the postseason, advancing to SIX NBA Finals and hoisting FIVE Larry O’Brien trophies, though the years that have since past have been rather lean as San Antonio embarked on a state of transition. However, just as it did back in 1997, their fortunes changed when they landed the number one overall pick in the NBA Draft, selecting the towering Victor Wembanyama, altering the team’s future in an instant. Indeed, the NBA hasn’t seen such a unique talent in ages, as the lithe, 7′-4″ Center is just as capable of draining a three-point dagger off the dribble as he is of punishing an undersized defender in the paint, all the while serving as a virtual one-man safety net on the defensive end of the hardwood. Now in his third season, the Spurs have done a tremendous job of putting the requisite pieces around the 22-year-old to become a legitimate contender; (longtime General Manager) RC Buford is one of the very best in the business, while (Head Coach) Mitch Johnson has continued to develop the young talent at his disposal, with the likes of (Sophomore Guard) Stephon Castle and (Shooting Guard) Devon Vassell exhibiting rapid growth around the big fella. As for Wembanyama himself (pictured below), he has emerged as not just the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year, but a serious contender for league MVP, averaging 25.0 points on 51.2% shooting from the field, along with 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steal, and an NBA-best 3.1 blocks. Furthermore, he has posted a PER (Player Efficiency Rating) of 29.9, with an on-court +/- of 16.4 points. Unsurprisingly, San Antonio has emerged as defensive juggernaut with the Frenchman patrolling the paint, ranking eighth overall in points allowed (111.5), third in defensive efficiency (111.3), first in defensive rebounding percentage (77.3%), and first in free-throws/field goals attempted ratio (.180). And in case you were wondering as to how these guys have matched up with the best of the best, the Spurs got the better of the (reigning NBA Champion) Thunder in FOUR of their five meetings this season. San Antonio held Oklahoma City to just 109.2 points on 44.8% shooting overall and 33.0% from downtown, keeping them off the free-throw line better than most (20.0 FTA), while in turn taking care of the rock so that the champs can’t get off to the races. With the second seed wrapped up, Johnson opted to rest Wembanyama in last weekend’s season finale against Denver, a 128-118 loss. The Nuggets led most of the way thanks to a 33-22 second quarter, with the big man’s absence proving noticeable on defense, as the visitors shot 50.0% from the field, 11-of-30 from three (36.7%), and completely owned the glass (58-45), particularly on the offensive end where they came up with a whopping 19 boards.
From a betting perspective, the Spurs were also rewarding against the spread this season (46-35-1), leading to a net profit of 6.82 units. This is a team that has been remarkably consistent for roughly two months now, for they are a stellar 22-12 ATS since February 1st, covering four of their final six games to close out the regular season, though failed to do so in that aforementioned loss to the Nuggets in the finale in which they were sizable favorites (-10). San Antonio has split their last ten games at home (5-5 ATS), while covering six of their past ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers. Johnson’s troops have covered SEVEN consecutive contests immediately following a SU loss and are in the midst of a 6-1 stretch ATS when enjoying three or more days of rest. With that being said, they are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five tilts when coming off a double-digit defeat at home, while posting a 2–5-mark ATS over their past seven encounters with an opponent owning a winning record. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, with this series marking their return following a 6-year hiatus. The Spurs are 20-14 in all first-round series, with their last series victory at this stage occurring back in 2017, a 4-2 conquest of the Grizzlies. As we covered earlier, San Antonio has taken three out of four postseason matchups with Portland, the most notable being the 1999 Western Conference Finals, a 4-game sweep that served as the penultimate triumph before hoisting the franchise’s first NBA Title. As for more recent history, they have bested the Blazers in seven of their last ten meetings, including that aforementioned 112-101 victory just ten days ago. The hosts jumped out to a 32-23 lead in the first quarter and never looked back, even though the visitors got within striking distance on multiple occasions. The key here was the defensive pressure that Johnson’s outfit applied, as they forced Portland into 16 turnovers which they managed to manufacture into 26 points, many of which came in transition (22 points). With both Wembanyama and Castle out of action due to injury, the rest of the rotation stepped to fill the void, with (veteran Point Guard) De’Aaron Fox posting 25 points on 10-of-20 shooting (50.0%), including 3-of-6 from downtown (50.0%), 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and 3 steals. (Fellow Kentucky product) Keldon Johnson added 20 points off the bench, along with 8 rebounds and a pair of steals. Getting back to Wemby, the towering Frenchman didn’t feature in any of the three games with the Blazers this season, though in his young career he has handled himself as expected, averaging 24.6 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.7 steals, and a whopping 4.8 blocks on shooting splits of 45.0/41.9/95.0. On the injury front, the Spurs should be at full strength tonight as Johnson opted to rest many of his starters down the stretch, though Wembanyama (ribs), (Rookie Guard) Dylan Harper (thumb), and (Backup Center) Luke Kornet (shoulder) are all listed as questionable with various ailments. Looking ahead, Game Two will once again take place in San Antonio before the series shifts to the Pacific Northwest later this week.