7:00 PM EST, Peacock/NBCSN – Spread: Celtics -13.5, Total: 216.5
After a historically one-sided series opener, we are about to see just how long this first-round clash is going to last, as the Philadelphia 76ers look to pick themselves up off the mat and avoid falling into an 0-2 hole in tonight’s sequel against the surging Boston Celtics from TD Garden. The last two seasons have been little more than a dissertation in adaptability and improvisation for the 76ers (45-37, 8th in Eastern Conference), who have been forced to swim in whatever direction that the proverbial tide has flowed in. After getting bounced in the first round of the 2024 Playoffs, Philadelphia was expected to compete at the top of the East, adding (All-Star Swingman) Paul George to the tandem of (2022-23 MVP) Joel Embiid and (rising star) Tyrese Maxey. However, injuries absolutely ravaged the rotation as Embiid was relegated to just nineteen contests, while George missed half of his first campaign, leaving Maxey (pictured below) to carry the load for a team floundering to a 24-58 finish. With so much of their wage bill attributed to two aging, injury-prone stars, it appeared that the franchise would be dead in the water, though Nurse and (General Manager) Daryl Morey have done their best to split the baby and reorient the direction of the team around Maxey and the first-round pick that they held in the 2025 NBA Draft, which ultimately became V.J. Edgecomb. While that may seem like a walking a tight rope, this approach has netted positive results. For a second time in three seasons, Maxey is an All-Star, posting career-highs in a slew of categories, including points (28.3), rebounds (4.1), assists (6.6), and steals (1.9), all the while leading the NBA in minutes played per game (38.0). As for Edgecomb, the Baylor product looks like the perfect backcourt running mate for the foreseeable future, emerging as an athletic 2-way dynamo with 16.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.4 steals of his own. And it is a good thing that he has, for both Embiid and George have continued to struggle avoiding injuries; both veterans missed over 40 games apiece, with the former being held on a strict minute count and held out of back-to-backs following yet another offseason knee procedure, while the latter was hit with a 25-game suspension after running afoul of the Association’s substance abuse policy, testing positive for a banned medication. Add it all up and the 76ers are clearly a team locked in a transitory state, which isn’t where you want to be in the playoffs, folks, evidenced by their embarrassing 123-91 loss to the Celtics in Game One. Without Embiid once again (more on that in a bit), Philadelphia simply lacked the firepower to keep pace with Boston, who outscored them 33-18 in the first quarter. Nurse’s charges looked like a team that just went to war in the Play-In, getting off to a dreadfully cold start on 6-of-21 shooting (28.6%), including 1-of-9 from downtown (11.1%), with more turnovers (6) than assists (2) in the period. When it was all said and done, the visitors were relegated to 38.9% shooting overall, were outscored by a whopping 36 points from three, and dished out a mere 20 assists opposed to committing 15 turnovers. Maxey finished with 21 points on 8-of-20 shooting (45.0%) and 8 assists, while Edgecomb struggled in his postseason debut with 13 points on 6-of-16 shooting (37.5%), missing each of his 5 attempts from the perimeter.
From a betting perspective, the 76ers clock in at 44-38-1 against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 1.60 units. This is a team that has really hit a dry spell on that front of late, finishing the regular season snapping a 4-game losing streak ATS before besting the Magic in the Play-In, only to fall well short of hitting the number in that aforementioned drubbing in Boston (+13). Philadelphia is just 4-6 ATS in their last ten trips away from Xfinity Mobile Arena, including only one cover in their past four road ventures, while finding themselves mired within a 3-7 stretch ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Nurse’s troops have failed to cover five consecutive tilts away from home against adversaries sporting a home win percentage above .600, while logging four straight non-covers on the road versus teams with a winning home ledger. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their fifty-fifth appearance in the playoffs, which includes a 17-11 series record in the first round. However, the Sixers haven’t enjoyed much postseason success when it comes to the Celtics, whom they have crossed paths with on TWENTY-TWO occasions, winning just six of those series, while suffering elimination in each of their last six encounters. Hell, the last time that Philly sent Boston packing was in the 1982 Eastern Conference Finals! As for more recent history, the 76ers are 3-7 straight-up and 5-5 ATS over the past ten affairs between these historic franchises, splitting their four meetings from this past regular season. Philadelphia is 4-6 ATS in their last ten trips to Beantown, while splitting the past ten as an underdog regardless of the venue. Maxey featured in all four matchups from this season, averaging a robust 30.0 points on 41.8% shooting from the field, along with 4.5 rebounds, 8.8 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.2 blocks, while netting a blistering 18-of-35 treys (51.8%). On the injury front, the Embiid saga continues, as the big fella underwent an emergency appendectomy on April 10th and has missed the past five contests. Nurse has stated that there is no definite timetable for his return, which really is a sizable blow to their chances of turning this series around. Over the course of his career, Embiid has averaged 26.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.6 blocks, with shooting splits of 47.8/26.2/87.6 against the Celtics, while suffering at their hands in the playoffs THREE times (2018, 2020, and 2023). Before the scene of this series shifts towards the City of Brotherly Love, it should be noted that the 76ers are 5-30 in all best-of-seven series after dropping the opening game and have NEVER rallied back from an 0-2 hole (0-15!!!).
Meanwhile, the Celtics (56-26, 2nd in Eastern Conference) are well acquainted with notions of adapting and improve, though when in comparison to their adversary tonight, they have simply been much better at it. After their bid to successfully defend their 2024 NBA Championship came to a crushing conclusion in last year’s East Semifinals, Boston was forced destroy and rebuild; after (All-NBA Forward) Jayson Tatum tore his Achilles in that series and the franchise facing MAJOR luxury tax implications, (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla and (President of Basketball Operations) Brad Stevens cut costs in shipping away several veteran lynchpins from their championship run, including (2-way Point Guard) Jrue Holiday and (sharpshooting Center) Kristaps Porzingis. Of course, this left many pundits to expect 2025-2026 to be a gap year for the shamrocks, who would in turn benefit from an unexpectedly premium pick in an upcoming draft flush with talent, allowing them to reload and compete for another successful cycle. However, Mazzulla wasn’t having any of that, as the 37-year-old has done an outstanding job of coaching up this team, with many members of his rotation thriving in expanded roles. Derrick White, Peyton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, and Neemias Queta are all examples of this, though the most notable growth has come from (2024 Finals MVP) Jaylen Brown. Already a 5-time All-Star, Brown (pictured below) has ascended to another level this season, posting career-highs in a slew of categories including points (28.7), rebounds (6.9), and assists (5.1), all the while carrying a usage rate of 36.2%, which is 4.8 percentage points than he previous personal best. With all that in mind, the Celtics were already a stellar 41-21 in early March, and then Tatum (pictured below alongside Brown) made his long-awaited return. With his team once again looking capable of making another lengthy playoff run, the 28-year-old simply could not resist the temptation of taking part in it all; in sixteen games, he averaged 21.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.4 steals on shooting splits of 41.1/32.9/82.3. While the shooting percentages were indicative of a player working his way back in shape, Sunday’s 123-91 drubbing of the 76ers featured a very different story, that of a star looking to pick up where he left off. In what was the biggest win in a Game One in franchise history. Tatum turned in 25 points on 9-of-17 shooting (52.9%), 11 rebounds, 7 assists, and a pair of steals, while Brown added 26 points of his own on 11-of-21 shooting (52.4%), 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals. As a team, the hosts shot a stellar 50.0% from the field, including 16-of-44 from beyond the arc (36.4%), dishing out a healthy 31 assists in comparison to committing just 10 turnovers.
From a betting perspective, the Celtics have certainly been one of the more rewarding sides in the Association this season against the spread (50-33), resulting in a healthy net profit of 12.00 units. This is a team that has been remarkably consistent for quite some time now, for since suffering a 4-game losing streak against the spread in late January, they have amassed a stellar 25-11 ledger on that front, including Sunday’s romp at the Garden. Since Tatum returned from injury, Boston is 14-7 ATS, including 11-7 with him actually in the starting lineup. Mazzulla’s troops are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last ten games in Beantown, while matching those records when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they have covered SEVEN consecutive contests at home, are in the midst of a 5-game win streak ATS at home against an adversary with a winning road CV and have covered seven of their past eight tilts immediately after scoring 100+ points, with all three of those trends proving relevant tonight. All-time, no franchise has enjoyed more postseason success than the Celtics, who are making their SIXTY-THIRD appearance in the playoffs, owning a 24-10 ledger in the first round, including four straight opening series victories. As we covered at length earlier, Boston has OWNED Philadelphia on this stage, posting a 16-6 series edge in a rivalry dating all the way back to 1965 and has gotten the better of them on five consecutive occasions, the most recent being the 2023 Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-3). Over the course of his career, Tatum has averaged 21.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.2 steals on shooting splits of 45.4/35.8/82.0 against Philly, while Brown has enjoyed plenty of success too, particularly this season with a robust 27.0 points on an efficient 54.2% from the field and 45.0% from three, along with 5.8 rebounds and assists apiece. On the injury front, Mazzulla has a largely healthy group at his disposal with no maladies to report. With all that in mind, the public is understandably very bullish on the shamrocks taking care of business once again tonight, with approximately 61% of all wagers placed upon the spread backing the hosts, while an even larger share of the overall sum of money being wagered on that front is following suit (66%). Looking ahead, it should be noted that the Celtics are an insane 71-8 in all best-of-seven series after drawing first blood, including each of their last six that fit that criteria, and are 45-1 in such series after racing out to a 2-0 lead.