7:00 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Hawks -1.5, Total: 216.5
One of the playoffs’ more interesting series continues tonight in the dirty south, as the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks jockey for an advantage as they sit level heading into Game Three of this first round set from State Farm Arena. Perhaps more so than any other team in the East, the Knicks (53-29, 3rd in Eastern Conference) were penciled in by many pundits to represent the conference in the NBA Finals, filling the void leftover by the collective absence of the Celtics and Pacers, who were ravaged by significant injuries to star players and several offseason departures. However, New York made changes of their own, hiring (Head Coach) Mike Brown to finally get them over the hump. The 56-year-old was brought in to bring some new ideas to the room, extending what had been one of the shortest rotations in the Association all in an attempt to ensure a fresher group come playoff time. After all, this is team that had advanced to their first East Final since 2000, so in theory they didn’t necessarily need wholesale changes to progress, particularly with two of their chief rivals expected to be stuck in a gap year. Unfortunately, Boston’s demise proved to be greatly exaggerated, while the young Pistons ascended to the top of the East, all the while Brown & Co endured their ups and downs. Meandering a bit at 25-18 in mid-January, it was looking as if this wouldn’t be the smoothest of marriages, though credit to Brown (pictured below) for not forcing his ideals down his roster’s throats and adjusting to what had worked for them in the past, particularly on the defensive end. From January 21st onwards, the Knicks finished the regular season on a 28-11 tear, outscoring their opposition by an even 10.0 points per game, shooting an efficient 48.9% from the field, outrebounding them by an industrious 6.2 boards, and forcing close to 15.0 turnovers (14.9). Both (clutch Point Guard) Jalen Brunson and (sharpshooting Center) Karl-Anthony Towns were selected as All-Stars, with the former logging 26.0 points on 46.7% shooting from the field and 36.9% from three, along with 3.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists, while the latter added 20.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists on shooting splits of 50.1/36.8/85.8. And as far as utilizing the bench more, Brown has done a good job of doing just that; his predecessor had every member of their starting five averaging at least 35.0 minutes per game, though in this season, only one member of that quintet (Brunson, 35.0) has hit that threshold. After earning a 113-102 victory in Game One, the Knicks frustrated their fan base and made things more difficult for themselves in Game Two, blowing a 14-point lead and allowing the Hawks to draw level via a 107-106 affair. Indeed, the hosts led 91-79 heading into the fourth quarter, only to be outscored 28-15 in the final stanza, shooting 5-of-22 from the field (22.7%) and 3-of-11 from three (27.3%), while logging just three assists to a pair of turnovers. Meanwhile, the Hawks caught fire (more on that in a bit) as New York mustered just 6 points over the final 5:26 of action, with Mikal Bridges’ frantic attempt at the buzzer drawing iron. There was also a bit of controversy to boot, as many were confused as to why Brown neglected calling his final timeout on that possession, but it would be revealed after the game that the graphic on the broadcast was incorrect and that there were in fact no timeouts left. Brunson led the team with 29 points, but did so on an inefficient 10-of-26 shooting (38.5%), with Towns adding 18 points, 8 rebounds, and a pair of blocks. As for the bench, five reserves saw action, though only two of them made a field goal, combining for 20 points, 15 rebounds, and 3 assists, shooting a cumulative 9-of-15 overall (60.0%).
From a betting perspective, the Knicks come into tonight’s Game Three at 45-39 against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 1.5 units. This is a team that has been rather streaky throughout the campaign, compiling SIX different streaks of four or more consecutive covers, while also suffering SEVEN different stretches consisting of at least three straight losses ATS. As such, that shocking upset in Monday’s Game Two came on the heels of a streak of six straight covers. New York has really been poor in this regard of late on the road, covering just two of their last eight outings away from the Garden, though have been much better as an underdog (6-4 ATS). Brown’s troops are 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests against an adversary that has just shipped 100+ points in the previous game, though have covered only one of their past seven games on the road, with a 1-5 ledger ATS versus a foe owning a winning record at home, with all trends proving relevant tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-seventh appearance in the playoffs, posting an 18-9 series record in the first round. Looking at this particular matchup, the Knicks have encountered the Hawks in the postseason on just three occasions (2-1), though everyone in the Big Apple is weary of that lone defeat; New York was upset in a gentleman’s sweep in the first round of the 2021 Playoffs, splitting the first two games at MSG before dropping each of the final three tilts. The Knickerbockers have covered four of their last ten meetings with the birds, though are riding a 5-2 run ATS in the dirty south. Over the course of his career, Brunson has performed well against Atlanta, averaging 20.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 5.5 assists on shooting splits of 49.1/41.0/74.6. On the injury front, Brown has a largely healthy team on his hands, with the only expected absence being that of (Sophomore Guard) Tyler Kolek, who is listed as questionable with a strained oblique muscle. The Marquette product has played sparingly this season, averaging just 4.4 points and 2.7 assists in 11.7 minutes per game. Looking ahead, the Knicks are 10-12 in all best-of-seven series after splitting the first two games and have gone on to win the ensuing Game Three on eight occasions.
Meanwhile, when looking back at this campaign for the Hawks (46-36, 6th in Eastern Conference), it is one that should definitely be divided into two parts: the team that existed prior to the Trae Young trade and the group that emerged afterward. Indeed, there had been rumors swirling for years that the 4-time All-Star was on his way out of the ATL, with that turn of events finally coming to pass on January 9th as the franchise shipped Young away to the nation’s capital for (veteran Guard) C.J. McCollum, (young Guard) Corey Kispert, and a sizable trade exception. Separate deals jettisoning the likes of (sharpshooting, yet injury-prone Center) Kristaps Porzingis to the Warriors and (reserve sniper) Luke Kennard to the Lakers netted the likes of (2-way Guard) Gabe Vincent and (emerging Forward) Jonathan Kuminga, completely altering the rotation of (Head Coach) Quin Snyder. As it turned out, it was certainly for the better; Atlanta was 26-30 heading into the All-Star Break, only to finish the regular season on a 20-6 blitz in which they outscored the opposition by an average margin of 10.5 points, with the biggest change coming on the defensive end of the hardwood. These birds allowed 8.1 fewer points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 34.85 from beyond the arc, while forcing more turnovers (16.5) and outrebounding foes by 4.5 boards. Prior to the Break, they were getting beaten on the glass by 4.6 boards per contest, though have now turned the tables, particularly on the offensive end (12.8). So, how has Snyder pulled this off, you ask? Well, it is no secret that for all of Young’s playmaking skills, he has been a rather poor defender for quite some time, with the same being said for both Porzingis and Kennard, while the likes of Kuminga and Vincent has infused the rotation with much more size, length, and athleticism than they had beforehand. Add that to a rotation featuring (rising star) Jalen Johnson (22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 1.2 steals) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (20.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.3 steals) and this is a vastly different team than the one that preceded it. With that in mind, the Knicks are finding that in real time, folks; after coming up short in the series opener, the Hawks struck back with a fourth quarter sprint that completely caught the denizens of the Big Apple unaware. As we covered earlier, the visitors erupted for a 28-15 final stanza, shooting a blistering 13-of-18 from the field (72.2%), dishing out 7 assists in comparison to committing 3 turnovers. Johnson and Kuminga combined for 13 points within this frame, while McCollum (pictured below) hit the go-ahead dagger to pull them ahead late. When it was all said and done, Atlanta netted 49.4% attempts overall, while doing a much better job of making their free-throws (18-of-23), and outscored the hosts in transition (+7) and in the paint (+4). Interestingly, there may have been handled on the glass (-11), particularly on the offensive boards (-8), but made up for that deficiency by creating extra possession via forcing 14 turnovers leading directly to 18 points. McCollum, the old man of the group, led the way with 32 points on 12-of-22 shooting (54.5%), along with 3 rebounds, 6 assists, and a pair of steals, while Johnson and Kuminga combined for 36 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals.
From a betting perspective, the Hawks are also 45-39 against the spread, resulting in an identical, albeit scant return of 1.5 units. With that upset on Monday night, this is a team that logged only their second cover in six outings, coming off the heels of a very successful 16-4 stretch ATS. Atlanta is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last ten games at State Farm Arena, while covering EIGHT of their past ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers. Snyder’s troops are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when enjoying at least two days of rest, but are also in the midst of an 0-4 stretch ATS after being on the road for more than seven days, with both trends proving relevant tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their fiftieth appearance in the playoffs, owning a 14-16 series ledger in the first round. As we covered earlier, the Hawks have bested the Knicks only once in the postseason, but oh, what a series it was. Atlanta terrorized New York throughout the set, silencing the crowd at MSG twice as the aforementioned Young earned his role as a villain to the faithful in the Big Apple, averaging 29.2 points and 9.8 assists over the five games, burying a floater as time expired to steal Game One. The birds are 6-4 ATS in their last ten clashes with the Knickerbockers, though are just 3-7 ATS when they host them in the ATL. After his heroics in Game Two, it is worth noting that McCollum has generally performed well against New York, averaging 16.3 points on 41.2% shooting, along with 3.6 rebounds and 3.1 assists. Game Two’s outcome aside, the public doesn’t appear to be convinced of Atlanta, with roughly 42% of all wages placed upon tonight’s spread backing the hosts, while a much smaller share of the overall sum of money being wagered on this front following suit (27%). On the injury front, Snyder’s frontcourt depth continues to be taxed as (Centers) N’Faly Dante (knee) and Jock Landale (ankle) are out for the foreseeable future, while Mouhamed Gueye will be a game-time decision courtesy of a bruised right hip. The 23-year-old Senegal international logged just 15 minutes over the first two games, totaling more fouls than points as he has been at a significant size disadvantage opposite of New York’s bigs. Looking ahead, the Hawks are 8-15 in all best-of-seven series in which they have split the first two games and have gone on to win the ensuing Game Three on eight occasions.