1:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Cavaliers -3.5, Total: 221.5
The first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs continues on, as the Toronto Raptors look to draw level and make this a best-of-three affair, while the Cleveland Cavaliers have designs on taking a commanding 3-1 series lead before returning home to Northern Ohio, in this Game Four from Scotiabank Arena. After winning a whopping 64 games in their first season under the leadership of (Head Coach) Kenny Atkinson, the Cavaliers (52-30, 4th in Eastern Conference) were expected by many to run away with East, particularly when you consider what happened to much of their competition. Indeed, both the Celtics and Pacers suffered seismic losses to key players threatening to tank their respective campaigns, with the Knicks undergoing a coaching change, Cleveland was coming off their second-most wins in franchise history serving as the only stable contender in the conference. At least that was the story on paper, folks, and as we all know, these games aren’t played on paper. So, what in the name of Brad Daugherty happened in Northern Ohio, you ask? Well, Atkinson was hired a year ago in large part to improve this team from an offensive perspective. While, he has certainly done that, it has largely come at the expense of their once-formidable defense. The Cavs ranked first in the NBA last season in points scored and sit comfortably at fourth overall this year (119.5), along with eighth in field goal percentage (48.2%), second in two-point percentage (57.8%), eighth in assists (28.3), ninth in turnover percentage (26.9%), and ninth in offensive rebounding percentage (26.9%). However, they have fallen to fifteenth in points allowed (115.4), with a problematic showing against the money ball, where they have shipped 37.2% shooting in that regard (26th Overall). Granted, a lot of that is a schematic byproduct as this has long been a team that defends inside-out, with their twin towers, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen patrolling the paint and cleaning the glass. The more notable change was certainly personnel-driven, as the franchise acquired (8-time All-NBA Guard) James Harden shortly before the Trade Deadline. Of course, anytime a team acquires the well-traveled 3-time scoring champion (which has been often over the past five years), they are sure to get a lot better offensively, but also a lot worse defensively. After flaming out in the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, the Cavaliers felt it necessary to add more firepower to their backcourt alongside (All-NBA Guard) Donovan Mitchell, which is something that Harden (pictured below) brings in spades. Since arriving in Cleveland, the bearded one has averaged 20.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 7.7 assists on shooting splits of 46.6/43.5/84.0, with the more important fact being that the team is 19-7 in games he has played in. Through three games of this series, he has provided a strong showing with 22.7 points, 3.7 boards, 6.0 dimes, and 2.3 steals, all the while knocking down 10-of-25 treys (40.0%). Unfortunately, the team’s overall decline on the defensive end revealed itself in Thursday night’s ugly 126-104 loss in Game Three north of the border. No matter how present it, this was an unacceptable showing for Atkinson’s charges, who allowed a below-average offensive group to shoot a ridiculous 57.5% from the field, including 14-of-23 from downtown, with 29 assists opposed to forcing a dozen turnovers. Despite owning plenty of size themselves, they were dominated in the paint (-20), while completely succumbing to the Raptors’ on-ball pressure, committing an untenable 22 turnovers that led to a 23-8 deficit in points from. This is where Harden comes back into the equation, accounting for 8 of those turnovers. To put that into perspective, he actually had more turnovers than assists (4), rebounds (4), and free-throws (5)
From a betting perspective, the Cavaliers own the distinction of being the least-rewarding team in this postseason field, logging a miserable 35-50 ledger against the spread, resulting in a harrowing loss of 18.50 units. That is a 19-game difference in comparison to their straight-up record, which is largely due to the wide public perception that they would indeed run away with the East this season. With that being said, this is a team that has been better on that front of late, covering five of their last seven contests following a miserable 6-16 stretch. Cleveland is 7-3 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last ten games away from Rocket Arena, while covering six of their past ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers. With that being said, they are in the midst of a 7-game losing streak ATS when enjoying two or more days of rest, while also failing to cover each of their last four road ventures against a foe with a home win percentage north of .500, with both of those trends proving relevant tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their twenty-sixth appearance in the postseason, owning a 13-11 series record in the opening round. However, there is some not-so-subtle context here, folks, for the vast majority of the Cavs’ playoff success, particularly at this stage of the tournament is attributed to their time led by some guy named LeBron James (you may have heard of him). Indeed, with James in a Cleveland uniform, they are a perfect 9-0 in the first round, meaning that they are 4-11 in such series without the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. Granted, Northern Ohio may never truly get over the LeBron era, but at least their team is trying their best to do so, having advanced past the first round in each of the last two playoffs; they survived a 7-game war with Orlando in 2024, before sweeping Miami with ease a year ago. As we covered earlier, the Cavs have owned the Raptors in the postseason, winning THIRTEEN of their last seventeen meetings, though again, it should be noted that James was largely responsible for much of that portfolio, embarrassing the dinosaurs with a 12-2 ledger against them from 2016 to 2018. Even after the events of Thursday night’s debacle, the public remains fond of Cleveland once again, with approximately 54% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the hosts, while an even larger share of the overall sum of money being wagered on this front has followed suit (60%). On the injury front, Atkinson has a largely healthy group on his hands with no major absences expected. Looking ahead, it should be noted that the Cavaliers are a commanding 9-0 in all best-of-seven series after building a 2-1 lead and have gone on to win Game Four in such series on four occasions (44.4%).
Meanwhile, returning to the postseason following a lean 3-year drought are the Raptors (46-36, 5th in Eastern Conference), who have shown steady progression in their three years under the leadership of (Head Coach) Darko Rajakovic. It was a case of destroy-and-rebuild for the Serbian international when he was appointed in 2023, as Toronto went from 41-41 to 25-57 in his first year on the job, though would improve to 30-52 in year two, before experiencing a 16-game leap this season. So, what in the name of Damon Stoudamire has transpired north of the border, you ask? Well, Rajakovic and (General Manager) Bobby Webster have rebuilt the roster largely upon the principals of length and versatility, which has resulted in one of the better defensive teams in the Association; true to their name, these dinosaurs are aggressive on that particular end of the hardwood, ranking ninth in points allowed (111.8) and fifth in defensive efficiency (113.0), along with tenth in field goal percentage allowed (46.7%), fourth in three-point percentage allowed (34.9%), second in assists allowed (24.5), and fourth in turnover percentage (14.3%). It also helps their two brightest stars, (Swingmen) Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes are strong two-way players, particularly the latter. Both Ingram and Barnes (pictured together below) were selected to the All-Star team, combining for 39.6 points, 13.1 rebounds, 9.6 assists, 2.2 steals, and 2.2 blocks per game this season. Ingram, the second overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, has experienced a rather nebulous career, though at the age of 28 appears to finally be reaching his potential; the lithe forward shot 47.7% from the field and 38.3% from beyond the arc, while really becoming more of a defensive pest with a career-high 3.1 defensive win shares per game. However, the Raptors have really struggled against good teams, with their ledger versus playoff sides standing at a dismal 16-26 (.380). Granted, a lot of that comes down to their weaknesses on the offensive end; they are neither prolific no efficient, ranking twenty-first in points scored (114.6), fifteenth in offensive rating (115.9), twenty-first in three-point percentage (35.4%), sixteenth in offensive rebound percentage (25.5), and seventeenth in free-throw/field goal attempt ratio (.204), meaning that they must create opportunities on the opposite end of the end of hardwood. With that in mind, if that defense falters, it can be an awfully long day at the office. Case in point: through the first two games of this series, Toronto was outscored by an average margin of 11.5 points, allowing Cleveland to shoot 53.7% from the field and 40.3% from three (-13.5 points per game), but in Thursday night’s sequel in Ontario, it was a very different case altogether. In that aforementioned 126-104 victory, the hosts held their foe to a far more palatable 44.4% shooting, including 14-of-45 from long range (31.1%), while harassing them throughout the affair in forcing 22 turnovers which led directly to 22 points. Coincidentally, Rajakovic’s outfit enjoyed their strongest offensive showing of the series, netting 57.5% of their attempts, with the likes of Barnes and (veteran Guard) R.J. Barrett each scoring 33 points apiece on a combined 23-of-36 shooting (63.8%), including 9-of-13 from the perimeter (69.2%), along with 10 rebounds, 16 assists, 3 steals, and a pair of blocks. (Rookie Forward) Collin Murray-Boyles also played a large role in the result, scoring 22 points on 11-of-15 shooting (73.3%) off the bench.
From a betting perspective, the Raptors have returned to the playoffs with a mediocre ledger against the spread (43-42), parlaying to a net loss of 3.30 units. This is a team that has been exactly that over the course of their last sixteen outings, splitting them right down the middle (8-8 ATS) despite winning Thursday’s affair outright with relative ease (+2.5). Toronto is in has been near perfect at home of late, winning and covering NINE of their past ten games at Scotiabank Arena, though are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten contests when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Rajakovic’s troops have generally struggled against stronger competition, covering only one of their past five meetings with adversaries residing above .500, which is obviously the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their fourteenth playoff appearance, owning a 6-7 series record in the opening round of the postseason. Interestingly, they have had plenty of history with the Cavaliers (mostly bad), meeting elimination at their hands three years in a row from 2016 to 2018, the most notable being a 2-4 series defeat in the 2016 Eastern Conference Finals. Looking at more recent history, the Raptors are 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS over the past ten encounters, including a 3-game sweep in this past regular season, though as we have seen thus far, the playoffs are different matter altogether. Toronto is also 9-4 ATS in their last thirteen affairs when hosting Cleveland. On the injury front, keep an eye on the status of (veteran Guard) Immanuel Quickley, who has yet to see any action in this series due to a tender hamstring that had previously sidelined him for nine of eleven games down the stretch. The 26-year-old is a sizable piece within Rajakovic’s rotation, averaging 16.4 points per game on 44.3% shooting, 4.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.3 steals, while serving as the most prolific three-point shooter on the team (178 3FG). Looking ahead, it should be noted that the Raptors are 3-3 in all best-of-seven series after trailing 1-2 and have gone on to win Game Four on all six occasions (100%).