10:30 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Nuggets -11.5, Total: 223.5
The first round of the 20206 NBA Playoffs continues tonight in Denver, where the Nuggets look to turn the tables and stave off elimination against the decimated Minnesota Timberwolves, who are in turn desperate to close this series after losing two significant pieces of their rotation. Gunning for their third consecutive appearance in the Western Conference Finals are the Timberwolves (49-33, 6th in Western Conference), who have designs on finally breaking through that threshold and reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history. However, this has been a largely uneven campaign for Minnesota, who finished the regular season in a 9-10 malaise, forcing them to begin the playoffs on the road once again. Granted, it should be noted that eleven of their final fourteen contests came without the services of (4-time All-Star Swingman) Anthony Edwards, who was nursing a bulky knee during that stretch. The 2-time All-NBA second team selection put together arguably his most efficient season yet, posting career-highs in a slew of categories, including points (28.8), field goal percentage (48.9%), and three-point percentage (39.9%) despite playing in a career-low 61 games. Unfortunately, Edwards is going to miss some more games, folks, after suffering a bone bruise and hyperextension in his left knee over the weekend. While it is being reported that he dodged a more significant injury, the immediate concern is that (Head Coach) Chris Finch & Co will be without him for a projected two weeks at the most. Compounding matters is the long-term loss of (fellow Guard) Donte DiVincenzo, who ruptured his Achilles in Saturday night’s 112-96 victory in Minneapolis. The veteran swingman had been a reliable complementary piece throughout the first four games of this series, averaging 10.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.8 steals on efficient shooting splits of 50.0/47.8/0.00. With all that in being said, how in the hell did the Wolves manage to win that affair, you ask? Well, Minnesota’s defense has been nothing short of sublime over these past three games, but the biggest reason that they managed to take a commanding 3-1 lead is (Backup Point Guard) Ayo Dosunmu. The eighth overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, the Illinois product had spent the first four seasons of his career as a solid if unspectacular reserve in Chicago, though would eventually become one of the many players allowed to leave the Windy City at this past Trade Deadline. In 24 games with the Timberwolves, Dosunmu (pictured below) proved to be a seamless fit in averaging 14.4 points on 52.1% shooting from the field and 41.4% from three, along with 4.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.0 steal, but the performance that he authored in Game Four was wholly unexpected. Simply put, the 26-year-old took over, erupting for a career-high 43 points on an insane 13-of-17 shooting (76.5%), knocking down all five of his attempts from the perimeter and netting 12-of-12 free-throws. He scored 15 points in the fourth quarter alone, singlehandedly keeping the Nuggets at bay as the hosts reached the finish line.
From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves come into this potential clincher at 40-46 against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 10.00 units. With that being said, this is a team that has been a much more rewarding play of late, covering THIRTEEN of their last twenty outings, including each of the past three in this series. Minnesota has split their last ten trips away from Target Center straight-up (6-4 ATS), while going 5-5 ATS over their past ten tilts as an underdog. Finch’s troops have covered FIVE consecutive contests after enjoying only one day of rest, are 5-1 ATS in their last six encounters with an adversary owning a win percentage above .600, and have really feasted in the first round where they are 13-3 ATS over the past sixteen games, with all three trends proving relevant tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their fourteenth appearance in the playoffs, though haven’t enjoyed much success at this opening stage, owning a 3-10 series ledger in the first round. With that being said, they have begun to shed that narrative in recent years, advancing into the Western Semis in each of the last two postseasons. Of course, there is plenty of recent playoff history with the Nuggets, crossing paths now in three out of four playoffs. The first came in 2023 where they met defeat in a competitive gentleman’s sweep, before returning the favor a year later in the 2024 Conference Semifinals, eliminating the reigning NBA Champions in a 7-game epic. Edwards, who really ascended to stardom during that particular run, featured in three of their four meetings from this past regular season, averaging 30.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, shooting 46.3% from the field, but struggled from downtown, netting just 8-of-31 attempts (25.8%). As for DiVincenzo, he featured in all four of those affairs, logging 11.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists despite fairly poor shooting splits (33.3/29.0/90.0). This, of course, brings us back to the injury front, folks, where both of these guys will be out of commission for the rest of the series, no matter how long it lasts. Together, they have combined for 29.3 points, 10.6 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 2.1 steals, while collectively shooting 19-of-54 from three (35.1%), which means that Finch is going to have dive deep into his bench for answers the rest of the way. Looking ahead, the Timberwolves are 3-0 in all best-of-seven series in which they have raced out to a 3-1 advantage, going on to close things out in Game Five on all three occasions.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets (54-28, 3rd in Western Conference) may be looking to claim their second NBA Title in four years, though they are nonetheless facing elimination after enduring what was a bit of an uneven campaign. Indeed, Denver started and finished strong, though suffered from a mediocre 19-20 stretch in the middle of the season, though it should be noted that much of that was brought on by prolonged absences from (3-time MVP) Nikola Jokic and (2-way Forward) Aaron Gordon, who missed a combined SIXTY-THREE games with various ailments. Adleman’s troops went 10-6 without the big fella in the month of January, which is pretty remarkable considering just how ridiculously prolific the Serbian international has been. Jokic (pictured below) finished the campaign as the third player in NBA history to AVERAGE a triple-double, posting 27.7 points, 12.9, rebounds, and 10.7 assists, leading the league in those latter two categories to boot, all the while serving as the first-ever Center to pace the Association in assists. With that being said, it appears that the more effectual impact from his absence came from Gordon, whose presence is often felt in less-obvious ways; Denver was just 27-19 without Gordon, which is big reason as to why this team struggled as much as they did on the defensive end of the hardwood. By now, we all know the story with these Nuggets: they are sublime offensively, ranking first overall in points scored (122.1) and offensive rating (122.6), but have really left something to be desired on defense, shipping 116.9 points (21st Overall) and sitting at twenty-first in defensive rating (117.4). To put things into perspective, when they won their lone NBA Title in 2023, they were middle of the pack in defensive rating (114.2), which was good enough to get the job done. Simply put, that group got stops when they needed to, but this current incarnation? Not so much. Ironically, the more glaring issue at the moment is their offense, which has struggled mightily to find a rhythm against Minnesota’s size, length, and athleticism. Thus far, the Nuggets are averaging just 105.5 points on 40.1% shooting from the field and 28.5% from beyond the arc, dishing out 22.0 assists in comparison to committing 10.7 turnovers. (Sharpshooting Guard) Jamal Murray has had a hard time against the Wolves in the past, with this series proving no different, as the All-Star has been held to 37.1% shooting overall and 26.5% from three. However, that was expected to be the case in this matchup, but the decline of Jokic (pictured below) is another matter altogether. Perhaps we’re just taking the big fella for granted, but it really is stunning to watch the most statistically dominant player of the past few seasons struggle in such fashion; through four games, Jokic is averaging 25.0 points, 14.5 rebounds, 7.8 assists, and 1.5 steals, but is shooting just 39.1% from the floor, including 5-of-27 from three (18.5%), while committing 4.0 turnovers. Sure, he is going up against Rudy Gobert, the towering Frenchman and 4-time Defensive Player of the Year, but we have seen the big guy roast him before. In Game Four, he totaled 24 points, 15 rebounds, 9 assists, and 3 steals, though was held to 8-of-22 shooting (36.4%), 0-of-3 from downtown, and 4 turnovers. The fourth quarter was particularly hard to watch for both he and his teammates; the visitors were relegated to 18 points 3-of-16 shooting (18.8%), including 1-of-8 from three (12.5%), with ZERO assists opposed to 5 turnovers.
From a betting perspective, the Nuggets come into this elimination game at 45-41 against the spread, resulting in a net loss of 0.50 units. The pendulum has taken some wild swings of late for a team that has suffered three straight losses ATS, which comes off the heels of a 3-game winning streak on that front. Denver has won NINE of their last ten games at Ball Arena, though are just 5-5 ATS in those tilts, while falling into a 3-7 malaise ATS over their past ten contests when favored by the oddsmakers. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-first appearance in the playoffs, owning a 12-17 series record in the first round. Like their adversary tonight, they too have enjoyed the majority of their success at this stage over the past few years, winning SIX of the last seven opening series that they have competed in since 2019. As we touched upon earlier, the Nuggets are 2-1 in all playoff series versus the Timberwolves, splitting their last two encounters. In the 2023 first round, they ultimately earned a 4-1 victory, though all but one game was decided by single digits, en route to going on to claim their first Larry O’Brien trophy. A year later, they would cross paths in the Western Semis, which is where their title defense came to an abrupt end with a 98-90 loss on their home floor. As for more recent affairs, Denver won three of their four meetings from the regular season, taking the first three, including both in contested in Minneapolis, before falling short in a 117-108 affair on March 1st. Jokic was unsurprisingly prominent in those matchups, averaging a robust 35.8 points, 15.0 rebounds, 11.3 assists on ruthlessly efficient shooting splits of 65.3/50.0/93.2. Given how this series has played out thus far and how large that spread is at the moment, it is understandable that the public isn’t very bullish on the Nuggets, with approximately 46% of all wagers placed upon that number riding with the hosts, though it should be noted that the overall money being wagered on this front is more encouraging (55%). Of course, the biggest issue facing this group is history, for teams trailing 1-3 in a best-of-seven series are a harrowing 13-285, rallying back to win said series only 4.3% of the time. However, there is a silver lining here, folks: the Nuggets have managed to do that not once, but TWICE, coming back to best the Trail Blazers and Clippers in back-to-back series during the 2020 Playoffs in the Bubble.