7:00 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Pistons -9.5, Total: 211.5
Yet another series could reach its conclusion tonight, as the top-seeded Detroit Pistons are desperate to get back into this matchup against the upstart Orlando Magic in this potential finale from Little Caesars Arena. Despite their recent run of form, the Magic (45-37, 8th in Eastern Conference) have been one of the more disappointing teams in the Association this season, coming up well short of the expectations placed upon them. Prior to the campaign, this was a young team that was expected to level up and fill the void left by the Celtics and Pacers, who each suffered major losses due to injuries and offseason departures, particularly after shipping away two players and FOUR first-round picks to Memphis in exchange for (sharpshooting Guard) Desmond Bane. Perimeter shooting has been a major issue for (Head Coach) Jamahl Mosely’s charges over the past few years, though the addition of Bane, a career 40.1% shooter from beyond the arc, was expected to bring some sorely needed balance to the attack. However, Orlando struggled through an uneven campaign needing a strong 5-1 finish just to get into the Play-In Tournament, where they flirted with disaster after coming up short against the 76ers, before finally punching their postseason ticket via a 121-90 romp over the Hornets. So, what in the name of Nick Anderson has happened in the Magic Kingdom, you ask? Well, even with Bane playing in all 82 games and averaging 20.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.0 steal, the overall shooting hasn’t improved nearly as much as you’d expect; the Magic rank twenty-fourth in three-pointers (11.7) and twenty-seventh in three-point percentage (34.3%), while simply rising to the middle of the pack as an offensive team, relying far too heavily on getting to the charity stripe. In this regard, they are the most industrious team in the NBA, as no team has attempted (22.0) or made (27.5) more free-throws this season. However, Mosley has been without various pieces of his rotation and has rarely had the benefit of a full complement at his disposal, with the likes of Franz Wagner, Anthony Black, Jonathan Isaac, and Jalen Suggs missing a combined 121 games. Add reported friction with many of his charges, including (All-Star Forward) Paolo Banchero, and you can see why rumors of the 47-year-old being on the hot seat have gained steam. However, the Magic inexplicably find themselves a game away from upsetting the top-seeded Pistons, potentially becoming just the SEVENTH team in NBA history to upset a one seed in the playoffs. Needless to say, Orlando picked a great time to get healthy and reveal their potential, proving to be far more difficult to deal with than your typical eight seed. With a full complement of talent, this is a group with the requisite size, length, and physicality to flourish in the postseason, when the games slow down and become much more of a grind. Furthermore, they match up well with Detroit on those fronts, holding their own on the glass and from the perimeter, while feasting on their foe’s inability to take care of the basketball. Turnovers lead to extra shots, folks, which is precisely what Mosley wants, given his charges deal more so in volume than quality; over the last two games, the Magic are +17 in points via turnovers, while enjoying similar advantages from the charity stripe (+11) and downtown (+21). Sunday’s 94-88 affair is the best example of this, as the hosts forced 20 turnovers leading to 23 points from, parlaying to 10 more field goal attempts, in turn resulting in a cumulative 14-point advantage on free-throws and treys. While that may not seem like that big of margin, it really is in a game in which both sides scored fewer than 100 points and shot well below 40% from the field. This was the contest in which Bane (pictured below) really endeared himself to the Orlando faithful, leading the way with 22 points on 7-of-18 shooting (38.9%), including 5-of-10 from three (50.0%), along with 5 rebounds, an assist, and a steal.
From a betting perspective, the Magic comes into tonight’s affair at 42-46 against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 8.20 units. This is a team has been building momentum on that front, folks, covering SEVEN of their last ten outings, including that aforementioned victory on Sunday (+3.5). Orlando is 4-6 both SU and ATS over their last ten trips away from Central Florida, while handling themselves rather well as an underdog of late with a 6-4 ledger ATS over their past ten tilts receiving points from the oddsmakers. Mosley’s troops have covered four of their last five games when enjoying only one day of rest, while in the midst of a 7-2 stretch ATS versus opponents possessing a win percentage north of .600, with both trends proving relevant tonight. However, they have covered four of their last twelve contests immediately after enjoying a cover, which is also the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their nineteenth appearance in the playoffs, owning a 5-13 series record in the first round, suffering six straight eliminations at this stage of the postseason. In fact, the Magic haven’t progressed past the opening round since 2010; to provide a bit of context, the team was coached by Stan Van Gundy and headlined by prime Dwight Howard, sweeping the Charlotte Bobcats (now the Hornets) in four games! These clubs have crossed paths in the playoffs on three occasions, with their only series victory coming in 1996, a series that featured the likes of Shaquille O’Neal, Anfernee Hardaway, and Grant Hill. As for more recent history, Mosley & Co are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last ten meetings with the Pistons, splitting their four encounters from this past regular season. Furthermore, Game One’s upset was just their fourth cover in fourteen trips to the Motor City. Banchero, who has been forced to grind for everything in this series, has averaged 22.2 points on 47.3% shooting along with 7.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists over the course of his career against Detroit. On the injury front, Orlando will in all likelihood continue being without the aforementioned Isaac, who is listed as day-to-day with a sprained left knee, while Wagner is listed as questionable with soreness in his right calf muscle. The German international missed 48 games this season, though has been a factor in these playoffs, averaging 16.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.8 steals on shooting splits of 43.9/33.3/93.3. Looking ahead, the Magic are 3-1 all best-of-seven series after racing out to a 3-1 advantage, while going on to win clinch said series in Game Five on two occasions (50.0%).
Meanwhile, no matter how this series concludes, this has been nothing short of a feel-good campaign for the Pistons (60-22, 1st in Eastern Conference), who entered the playoffs as the top seed in the East for the first time since 2007. Of course, it really wasn’t that long ago that this franchise was the laughingstock of the NBA, going a pitiful 31-133 (.189) between the 2022-23 season and 2023-2024. However, the healing began under (Head Coach) J.B. Bickerstaff’s watch last season, as Detroit improved exponentially to a 44-38 finish, returning to the postseason after a 5-year absence and giving the Knicks everything they could handle in a 4-2 series loss. This season, they have continued to grow, developing into a budding powerhouse ranking in the top-10 on both ends of the hardwood. Indeed, the Pistons placed eighth in points scored (117.8) and third in points allowed (109.6), with a net rating of +8.2, which is the third-highest mark in the Association. After earning his first All-Star and All-NBA nods last year, (versatile Guard) Cade Cunnigham has continued to make strides towards superstardom, emerging as the playmaking fulcrum that the club envisioned when the club drafted him number one overall five years ago. Cunningham (pictured below) averaged 23.9 points on 46.1% shooting, along with 5.5 rebounds, 9.9 assists, and 1.4 steals, posting a PER of 21.6 and a +/- of 10.9, where are both career-highs. Keep in mind that the 24-year-old also missed eleven consecutive contests between March and April due to a partially collapsed lung that initially threatened to end his campaign altogether. However, the Oklahoma State product returned on a pitch count for the final three games, as Bickerstaff clearly wanted his man healthy and ready to go for the start of the playoffs. Well, he may be healthy, but that hasn’t translated to success for the Pistons in this series, for apart from a 39-point performance in the opener, he has struggled mightily the rest of the way, shooting 40.0% from the field, including 25.9% from three, and committing nearly as many turnovers (8.0) as assists (8.7). It really has become glaringly evident that Detroit sorely lacks playmaking and shooting outside of Cunningham, who has been hounded by Orlando’s legion of lengthy, rangy defenders. As a whole, they are shooting just 41.9% from the field and 27.5% from downtown, committing 18.7 turnovers along the way. With that being said, it hasn’t only been Cunningham who has struggled, but those around him that oftentimes rely upon his playmaking skills, particularly (All-Star Center) Jalen Duren. After enjoying a career campaign that has him in line for a max-level contract extension, the 22-year-old has been little more than afterthought in this series, logging 9.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.8 blocks. Furthermore, he found himself on the business end of a rather disrespectful poster in Sunday’s defeat, which came during a late stretch in which the Magic closed out the game. Duren (pictured below alongside Cunningham) finished with 12 points, 8 boards, and 3 assists, though committed 4 turnovers, meaning that along with Cade, was responsible for a dozen of his side’s 20 turnovers. The fact that the Pistons managed to lose a game in which they held their opponent to 32.6% shooting tells you everything you need to know as to how self-destructive they were on the offensive end of the hardwood. Is it too late to turn things around? History will tell us that they still have a chance, but they are more than likely staring down the barrel of becoming just the third 60-win team in NBA history to lose in the first round of the playoffs.
From a betting perspective, the Pistons may have amassed the best record in the East, but they haven’t come close to being as rewarding against the spread (45-41), parlaying to a net loss of 0.50 units. This is a team that has dropped four of their last five outings, including three of four in this series. Detroit is 6-4 ATS over their last ten tilts at Little Caesars Arena, while covering four of their past ten games when favored by the oddsmakers. Bickerstaff’s troops are in the midst of a 4-1 stretch ATS versus an adversary owning a losing road record, while proving to resilient with four covers out of five immediately following a SU defeat, with both trends proving relevant tonight. However, the first round has continued to a wasteland of sorts for a group that that is on a 5-17 slide ATS at this opening stage of the postseason. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-fourth appearance in the playoffs, posting a 14-13 series ledger in the opening round, though haven’t progressed past this stage since 2008, suffering elimination on four occasions since then. As we covered earlier, the Pistons have taken two of their three postseason encounters with the Magic, with the most notable being an epic 7-game set in the first round of the 2003 Playoffs. After Orlando raced out to a commanding 3-1 series lead, Tracy McGrady infamously stated that “it feels good to get into the second round”, only for Detroit to win each of the final three games by an average margin of 17.0 points. As for more recent history, Bickerstaff & Co split their two meetings from this past regular season, with each side winning on the other’s homecourt. Cunningham, who was nothing short of sublime in Game One only to regress over the course of this series, has averaged 20.5 points on 41.5% shooting, along with 5.2 rebounds and 7.5 assists in his career against the Magic. Given how things have played out, the public appears to have lost all confidence in Detroit, as approximately 25% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing the hosts, despite a larger share of the overall money being wagered on this front following suit (37%). Looking ahead, the Pistons are just 1-5 in all best-of-seven series after falling into a 1-3 hole, going on to win Game Five on four occasions (80.0%).