7:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Knicks -1.5, Total: 213.5
Another series could potentially be laid to rest tonight, as the New York Knicks look to deliver the death blow to the fading Atlanta Hawks in Game Six of this first round set from State Farm Arena. Perhaps more so than any other team in the East, the Knicks (53-29, 3rd in Eastern Conference) were penciled in by many pundits to represent the conference in the NBA Finals, filling the void leftover by the collective absence of the Celtics and Pacers, who were ravaged by significant injuries to star players and several offseason departures. However, New York made changes of their own, hiring (Head Coach) Mike Brown to finally get them over the hump. The 56-year-old was brought in to bring some new ideas to the room, extending what had been one of the shortest rotations in the Association all in an attempt to ensure a fresher group come playoff time. After all, this is team that had advanced to their first East Final since 2000, so in theory they didn’t necessarily need wholesale changes to progress, particularly with two of their chief rivals expected to be stuck in a gap year. Unfortunately, Boston’s demise proved to be greatly exaggerated, with the young Pistons ascended to the top of the East, while Brown & Co endured their ups and downs. Meandering a bit at 25-18 in mid-January, it was looking as if this wouldn’t be the smoothest of marriages, though credit to Brown for not forcing his ideals down his roster’s throats and adjusting to what had worked for them in the past, particularly on the defensive end. From January 21st onwards, the Knicks finished the regular season on a 28-11 tear, outscoring their opposition by an even 10.0 points per game, shooting an efficient 48.9% from the field, outrebounding them by an industrious 6.2 boards, and forcing close to 15.0 turnovers (14.9). Both (clutch Point Guard) Jalen Brunson and (sharpshooting Center) Karl-Anthony Towns were selected as All-Stars, with the former logging 26.0 points on 46.7% shooting from the field and 36.9% from three, along with 3.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists, while the latter added 20.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists on shooting splits of 50.1/36.8/85.8. And as far as utilizing the bench more, Brown has done a good job of doing just that; his predecessor had every member of their starting five averaging at least 35.0 minutes per game, though in this season, only one member of that quintet (Brunson, 35.0) has hit that threshold. Ironically, this series has played out much like the regular season did, with the Knicks stumbling throughout the early stages only to find their footing and assert control over the last two games. Indeed, between Games Four and Five, New York has bested Atlanta by an average margin of 22.0 points on a healthy 53.1% shooting from the field and 43.9% from downtown, while in turn relegating the birds to a mere 42.8% shooting overall. Tuesday night’s 126-97 thumping at Madison Square Garden featured the hosts at the best, utterly embarrassing the Hawks across the board; Brown’s charges shot a blistering 57.0% from the field, including 11-of-26 from three (42.3%), while planting their flag at the charity stripe (25-of-34 FT) where they outscored the visitors by a commanding 15 points. Furthermore, they enjoyed an 11-4 advantage in transition and got whatever they wanted in the paint (60-42). Unsurprisingly, Brunson and Towns (pictured together below) were at the forefront, with the former erupting for 39 points and 8 assists, while the latter totaled 16 points and 14 rebounds, collectively shooting 20-of-30 from the floor (66.7%) and 4-of-8 from three (50.0%).
From a betting perspective, the Knicks come into tonight’s Game Three at 47-40 against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 2.3 units. This is a team that has been rather streaky throughout the campaign, compiling SIX different streaks of four or more consecutive covers, while also suffering SEVEN different stretches consisting of at least three straight losses ATS. As such, these past two covers have come immediately on the heels of back-to-back ATS defeats. New York has really been poor in this regard of late on the road, covering just three of their last ten outings away from the Garden, though have been much better as a favorite (6-4 ATS). Brown’s troops are 6-1 ATS in their last seven tilts following a cover, while matching that ledger after a SU victory, with EIGHT covers over their past ten contests overall. However, they are in the midst of a 2-6 slump ATS versus foes with a home win percentage above .500, while also covering only one of their last seven games played on Thursday night, for what that is worth. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-seventh appearance in the playoffs, posting an 18-9 series record in the first round. Looking at this particular matchup, the Knicks have encountered the Hawks in the postseason on just three occasions (2-1), though everyone in the Big Apple is weary of that lone defeat; New York was upset in a gentleman’s sweep in the first round of the 2021 Playoffs, splitting the first two games at MSG before dropping each of the final three tilts. The Knickerbockers have covered five of their last ten meetings with the birds, though are riding a 6-4 run ATS in the dirty south. Over the course of his career, Brunson has performed well against Atlanta, averaging 20.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 5.5 assists on shooting splits of 49.1/41.0/74.6. As for Towns, the big fella has feasted upon the birds throughout this career, averaging 24.7 points on an efficient 52.4% shooting, including a blistering 46.8% from three, along with 12.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.3 blocks. On the injury front, Brown has a largely healthy team on his hands with no major situations to report. Looking ahead, the Knicks are 11-4 in all best-of-seven series after building a 3-2 advantage and have gone on to close it out in Game Six on six occasions (40.0%).
Meanwhile, when looking back at this campaign for the Hawks (46-36, 6th in Eastern Conference), it is one that should definitely be divided into two parts: the team that existed prior to the Trae Young trade and the group that emerged afterward. Indeed, there had been rumors swirling for years that the 4-time All-Star was on his way out of the ATL, with that turn of events finally coming to pass on January 9th as the franchise shipped Young away to the nation’s capital for (veteran Guard) C.J. McCollum, (young Guard) Corey Kispert, and a sizable trade exception. Separate deals jettisoning the likes of (sharpshooting, yet injury-prone Center) Kristaps Porzingis to the Warriors and (reserve sniper) Luke Kennard to the Lakers netted the likes of (2-way Guard) Gabe Vincent and (emerging Forward) Jonathan Kuminga, completely altering the rotation of (Head Coach) Quin Snyder. As it turned out, it was certainly for the better; Atlanta was 26-30 heading into the All-Star Break, only to finish the regular season on a 20-6 blitz in which they outscored the opposition by an average margin of 10.5 points, with the biggest change coming on the defensive end of the hardwood. These birds allowed 8.1 fewer points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 34.85 from beyond the arc, while forcing more turnovers (16.5) and outrebounding foes by 4.5 boards. Prior to the Break, they were getting beaten on the glass by 4.6 boards per contest, though have now turned the tables, particularly on the offensive end (12.8). So, how has Snyder pulled this off, you ask? Well, it is no secret that for all of Young’s playmaking skills, he has been a rather poor defender for quite some time, with the same being said for both Porzingis and Kennard, while the likes of Kuminga and Vincent has infused the rotation with much more size, length, and athleticism than they had beforehand. Add that to a rotation featuring (rising star) Jalen Johnson (22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 1.2 steals) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (20.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.3 steals) and this is a vastly different team than the one that preceded it. However, it appears that these birds have simply run out of gas after making everyone in the Big Apple sweat profusely for roughly a week. Though the first three games of this series, Atlanta averaged 106.0 points, shooting 46.1% from the field and 36.0% from three, while permitting just 21.0 assists and forcing 14.3 turnovers, taking over in the clutch moments. Unfortunately, that simply has NOT been the case in Games Four and Five; the Hawks have been held to a mere 97.5 points on 42.8% shooting, while flatlining from beyond the arc (27.7%), and falling even further behind on the glass (-13.0). Tuesday night’s 126-97 loss at MSG wasn’t the worst of offensive performances, but it is awfully difficult to win a game, let alone in the playoffs, when you are shipping 57.0% shooting and sending your opponent to the stripe wholesale. The visitors shot 44.6% overall and 13-of-42 from downtown (31.0%), but were -15 on free-throws and -18 in the paint, while getting absolutely manhandled on the boards (-21!!!). Johnson (pictured below) led the way with 18 points on 7-of-15 shooting (46.7%), 10 rebounds, 6 assists, and a pair of steals, though McCollum, who had tormented New York earlier in the series, was held to a mundane 6 points on 3-of-10 shooting (30.0%), with more turnovers (4) than assists (1).
From a betting perspective, the Hawks are 46-41 against the spread, resulting in a scant return of 0.40 units. With that drubbing on Tuesday night, this is a team that logged just three covers in their last nine outings, coming off the heels of a very successful 16-4 stretch ATS. Atlanta is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last ten games at State Farm Arena, though have covered just three of their last seven tilts when receiving points from the oddsmakers. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their fiftieth appearance in the playoffs, owning a 14-16 series ledger in the first round. As we covered earlier, the Hawks have bested the Knicks only once in the postseason, but oh, what a series it was. Atlanta terrorized New York throughout the set, silencing the crowd at MSG twice as the aforementioned Young earned his role as a villain to the faithful in the Big Apple, averaging 29.2 points and 9.8 assists over the five games, burying a floater as time expired to steal Game One. The birds are 3-7 ATS in their last ten clashes with the Knickerbockers, though have been moderately more rewarding when they host them in the ATL (4-6 ATS). After his hot start, it is worth noting that McCollum has generally performed well against New York, averaging 16.3 points on 41.2% shooting, along with 3.6 rebounds and 3.1 assists. Given how this series has played out over the past two games, the public doesn’t appear to be convinced of Atlanta, with approximately 25% of all wages placed upon tonight’s spread backing the hosts, while a much smaller share of the overall sum of money being wagered on this front following suit (18%). On the injury front, Snyder’s frontcourt depth continues to be taxed as (Centers) N’Faly Dante (knee) and Jock Landale (ankle) are out for the foreseeable future. Looking ahead, the Hawks are 3-20 in all best-of-seven series in which they have fallen into a 2-3 hole and have gone on to survive in Game Six on ten occasions (43.4%).