9:30 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Rockets -3.5, Total: 205.5
It is do-or-die tonight in Clutch City, where the Houston Rockets look to once again stave off elimination and force a decisive Game Seven, while the Los Angeles Lakers are hoping that the third time will be a charm as they look to close out this series once more. After dropping the past two games after racing out to a commanding 3-0 lead, the Lakers (53-29, 4th in Western Conference) have now found themselves feeling the pressure for the first time in this series. After finally getting completely healthy and going on a stellar 16-2 run through the month of March, Los Angeles had the proverbial rug pulled out from under them when they received the news that both (All-NBA Guard) Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves would miss an indefinite amount of town with respective hamstring and oblique injuries. Needless to say, this was a HUGE blow to a team that was peaking at the right time, as Doncic, in his first full season in LA, went on to lead the Association in scoring for the second time in three years (33.5), while Reaves posted career-highs in points (23.3), rebounds (5.5), and steals (1.1). All the while, the 41-year-old LeBron James settled into a more complementary role than ever before, which is in stark contrast to the previous 21 years of his legendary career. With that being said, the 4-time MVP has continued to fill up the box score, averaging 20.9 points on 51.5% shooting, along with 6.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 1.2 steals. Now with rumors continuing to swirl over an uncertain future, James has been forced to once again play a leading role in a postseason run as the Lakers have gone from the team that nobody wanted to play in the first round, to becoming the optimal opponent given their losses. Through the first three games of this series, the Lakers were clicking offensively, averaging 1067 points on a healthy 51.2% shooting, including 46.1% from three, despite committing an untenable 18.7 turnovers along the way. The supporting cast stepped up to fill the void left by Doncic and Reaves, with the likes of (veteran defensive stopper) Marcus Smart and (sharpshooting journeyman) Luke Kennard, who was added at the trade deadline, combining for 45.0 points on 58.8% shooting, including 14-of-24 from three (58.3%), with 7.0 rebounds, 10.0 assists, and 4.5 steals. However, the longer that this series has progressed the less effective that this group has become, and if it weren’t for an all-time collapse from Houston in the waning moments of regulation in Game Three, Los Angeles would be facing elimination themselves. With that in mind, Reaves (pictured below) suited up for the first time in a month following an oblique strain, hoping to provide reinforcements for a fading attack. Returning home with an opportunity to clinch, even his return couldn’t ignite a flat offensive showing that proved to be LA’s worst of the season. The hosts shot just 42.1% from the field, including 7-of-27 from three (25.9%), with just 19 assists in comparison to 15 turnovers. (Head Coach) J.J. Redick’s charges trailed through most of the affair, though managed to cut the deficit to three points late in the fourth quarter, though simply could not get over the hump. LA was -21 from downtown, while Reaves really looked rusty in just under 34:00 minutes off the bench; the Texas Tech product total a team-high 22 points, but was a miserable 4-of-16 from the field (25.0%), with the bulk of his production coming from the charity stripe (12-of-13 FT). As for Smart and Kennard, they mustered just 12 points and 7 turnovers, while James finished with 25 points, 3 rebounds, 7 assists, and a pair of steals.
From a betting perspective, the Lakers come into tonight’s potential clincher at a solid 48-39 record against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 4.20 units. This is a team that has now failed to cover back-to-back outings after stringing together six consecutive covers dating back to the regular season, with Wednesday’s defeat marking the first time in this series in which they were favored by the oddsmakers (-3.5). Los Angeles is in the midst of a 4-6 malaise ATS in their last ten tilts away from Crypto.com Arena, while authoring an 7-3 ledger both SU and ATS over their past ten games as an underdog. With that being said, Redick’s troops have failed to cover all but two of their last eight games on the road, including 1-4 ATS in such tilts versus a foe owning a home win percentage north of .600, with both trends proving relevant tonight. Furthermore, they are also just 2-7 ATS over their past nine games when playing on only one day of rest, which is also the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is certainly no stranger to the postseason, making their SIXTY-SIXTH appearance in the playoffs, owning a 25-11 record in first-round series. The Lakers have enjoyed plenty of postseason success against the Rockets, besting them in six of the nine series in which they have met, winning each of the last four encounters (1999, 2004, 2009, 2020). Los Angeles is 7-3 SU and ATS over their past ten affairs, splitting their last ten contested in Houston ATS. It is worth noting they took two of three affairs during the regular season, with the road team winning every game. Over the course of his illustrious career, LeBron has averaged 24.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.7 assists against the Rockets, while in his lone encounter with them in the playoffs, a 4-1 victory in the 2020 Western Conference Semifinals, he went for 25.8 points on a superb 51.1% shooting, 10.4 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.8 blocks. With an opportunity to clinch, the public is firmly backing the Lakers, as roughly 64% of all wagers placed upon the spread are backing the visitors, while an even larger share of the overall money being wagered has followed suit (70%). On the injury front, we covered Reaves’ return in Game Five, though Doncic isn’t expected to do so tonight. Looking ahead, it is worth mentioning that neither the Lakers nor ANY team in NBA history has ever lost a best-of-seven series after racing out to a 3-0 lead, but this just the THIRD time that Los Angeles has seen such a series extended to six games, though they successfully closed each set in Game 6 (1949, 1962)
Meanwhile, even though they have fought back in this series, this has been nothing short of a disappointing start to the postseason for the Rockets (52-30, 5th in Western Conference), who angled for this matchup against a wounded opponent. But then again, why would this series play out any different than the regular season did for a team that fell well short of lofty expectations. Indeed, Houston made headlines in the offseason after acquiring the services of (future Hall of Famer) Kevin Durant in a deal with the Suns, adding one of the greatest scorers in NBA history to a young team that was in dire need of his skillset. (Head Coach) Ime Udoka has done a lot of really good work in resurrecting this franchise, leading them to a 52-win campaign and the second seed out West, though they would ultimately hit the wall against a savvy Warriors side that outlasted in seven games. While we certainly won’t argue with the logic of dropping Durant into this rotation, but the persistent issue plaguing this team has been their lack of identity and structure, which is directly attributed to the absence of a true point guard. Before the season ever began, Udoka lost Fred VanVleet for the year to a torn ACL, robbing the team of any semblance of a true floor general. Inexplicably, the club lacked a Plan B at the position, which has led to a turnover-prone attack that has really prevented this group from reaching its potential. Houston ranks eighteenth in points scored (115.2), despite sitting at sixth in field goal percentage (46.0%) and seventh in three-point percentage (35.1%), relying heavily on their size and activity on the offensive glass, where they have collected 15.0 rebounds per game (1st Overall). However, as Udoka continues to pivot with other players operating as a de facto PG, they have rank in the bottom third in assists (25.4, 21st Overall) and turnover percentage (13.3%, 24th Overall). Durant, (Sophomore Swingman) Amen Thompson, and (All-Star Center) Alperen Sengun has formed a platoon of playmakers to run the offense, though it is clear that this lack of structure hasn’t necessarily been a boon for the Rockets, even in this era of positionless basketball. So, how has this affected them in this series, you ask? Well, it has been tough to watch on the offensive end, folks, particularly through the first three games; the Rockets averaged just 100.0 points on 39.6% shooting from the field, including 28.7% from beyond the arc, dishing out a mere 22.7 assists opposed to committing 15.0 turnovers. However, in winning the last two contests, Houston’s youth and energy have taken over, posting an improved 107.0 points on much more palatable 46.2% shooting overall and 37.1% from downtown, committing fewer turnovers (12.0), and being more productive from the charity stripe (22.0 FT). Then again, it has been a case of turning defense into offense, racking up a stellar 13.5 steals during these two outings, creating easier opportunities in transition. Wednesday night’s 99-93 victory featured plenty of this, as the visitors managed to turn 15 turnovers into 18 points. With that being said, this was the first time in the series that the threes fell in favor of Udoka’s troops, who netted 14-of-40 treys (35.0%), outscoring the Lakers by a whopping 21 points on that front. Needless to say, that is how you go from trailing by as many as 11 points to leading by a maximum of 13, folks, as five different Rockets found their touch in draining multiple threes. Sengun (pictured below) finished with 14 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists, while Jabari Smith led the team with 22 points thanks to 4-of-9 shooting from long-range, and Thompson filling out the stat sheet with 15 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 steals.
From a betting perspective, the Rockets have been one of the least profitable teams in the Association this season, posting a 38-49 record against the spread, resulting in a dismal net loss of 14.80 units. In fact, that “return” is the worst showing of any of the teams left in these playoffs. This is a team that is just 11-18 ATS over their last 29 outings, including NINE outright losses as a favorite, which also includes each of the first three games of this series. Houston is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last ten games Toyota Center, while going 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they are currently in the midst of a 4-game winning streak ATS when playing on only one day of rest, which is once again the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their thirty-sixth appearance in the playoffs, with a 16-18 record in the opening round. However, it has been six years since they have escaped the first round, having fell to the more experienced Warriors in seven games last April. Looking at this particular matchup, the Rockets have crossed paths with the Lakers nine times in the playoffs (3-6), though it has been quite a while since they have eliminated Los Angeles, 1996 to be exact. As for more recent history, Houston has lost all but three of the last ten meetings. Getting back to KD, it is apparent that they really miss the presence of the Slim Reaper, who apart from a turnover-prone Game Two, has performed well against the Lakers over the course of his illustrious career, averaging 27.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.6 assists on ever-efficient shooting splits of 49.5/37.8/87.3. On the injury front, Houston will be without the 2-time Finals MVP for at least one more game, which compounds their issues given the prolonged absences of both VanVleet (knee) and (Veteran Center) Steven Adams (ankle). Looking ahead, it is worth noting that neither the Rockets nor ANY team in NBA history has successfully rallied back to win a best-of-seven series after falling behind 0-3, with tonight’s affair marking just the second time that they have extended said series to a sixth game; Houston strung together back-to-back wins in Games Four and Five of the First Round of the 2013 Playoffs, though were ultimately bested at home by the Thunder (103-94).