7:30 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Celtics -7.5, Total: 206.5
The first of THREE Game Sevens tips off tonight in Beantown, where the Boston Celtics are desperate to avoid the upset, while the Philadelphia 76ers are in turn looking for some long-awaited payback in this series finale. For those who lament the decline of true rivalries in the sport, this matchup represents the most contested in playoff history, as these teams are crossing paths for the TWENTY-THIRD time in the postseason, a history that includes a whopping NINE Game Sevens, which is also the most ever. The last two seasons have been little more than a dissertation in adaptability and improvisation for the 76ers (45-37, 8th in Eastern Conference), who have been forced to swim in whatever direction that the tide has flowed in. After getting bounced in the first round of the 2024 Playoffs, Philadelphia was expected to compete at the top of the East, adding (All-Star Swingman) Paul George to the tandem of (2022-23 MVP) Joel Embiid and (rising star) Tyrese Maxey. However, injuries absolutely ravaged the rotation as Embiid was relegated to just nineteen contests, while George missed half of his first campaign, leaving Maxey to carry the load for a team floundering to a 24-58 finish. With so much of their wage bill attributed to two aging, injury-prone stars, it appeared that the franchise would be dead in the water for the foreseeable future, though Nurse and (General Manager) Daryl Morey have done their best to split the baby and realign their future around Maxey and the first-round pick that they held in the 2025 NBA Draft, which ultimately became V.J. Edgecomb. While that may seem like walking a tight rope, this approach has netted positive results. For a second time in three seasons, Maxey is an All-Star, posting career-highs in a slew of categories, including points (28.3), rebounds (4.1), assists (6.6), and steals (1.9), all the while leading the NBA in minutes played per game (38.0). As for Edgecomb, the Baylor product looks like the perfect backcourt running mate for the future, emerging as an athletic 2-way dynamo with 16.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.4 steals of his own. And it is a good thing that he has, for both Embiid and George have continued to struggle avoiding injuries; both veterans missed over 40 games apiece, with the former being held on a strict minute count and held out of back-to-backs following yet another offseason knee procedure, while the latter was hit with a 25-game suspension after running afoul of the Association’s substance abuse policy, testing positive for a banned medication. Add it all up and the 76ers are clearly a team locked in a transitory state, which isn’t where you want to be in the playoffs, though that hasn’t kept them from reaching this point. Through the first four games, Philly was -21.7 points per game on threes, while getting worked on the glass (-10.0), particularly on the offensive end where they conceded 13.0 rebounds, shipping a wealth of second-chance opportunities along the way. However, over the past two games, both of which were sizable victories, they outscored the Celtics by an average margin of 14.5 points, shooting 46.7% from the field, including 34.7% from three, while holding their own on the glass (even), building a +7.0 advantage from the charity stripe, and even besting them from beyond the arc (+4.5). Ironically, you can attribute this turn of events to the play of Embiid and George, with each veteran turning back the clock and playing some of their best basketball that we’ve seen from them in quite some time. The former was sublime in Game Five with 33 points on 12-of-23 shooting (52.1%), 4 rebounds, and 8 assists, while making up for a poor shooting performance in Thursday night’s 106-93 victory (19 points on 6-of-18 FG) by contributing to other areas with 10 boards, 8 dimes, and a steal. Furthermore, he continues to be a one-man show at the free-throw line, knocking down 15-of-17 singles along the way. As for George (pictured below), THIS is the veteran 2-way weapon that Philly thought they were getting when they signed him to a 4-year, $212 million contract a year ago. The 36-year-old has averaged 19.5 points on 46.7% shooting and 50.0% from three over the past two outings, along with 6.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 2.0 steals to boot. In Game Six, he went for 23 points and netted 5-of-9 treys, all the while playing strong perimeter defense that played a large role in Boston’s woes from downtown (more on that shortly).
From a betting perspective, the 76ers are 47-40-1 against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 2.30 units. This is a team that has been precisely mediocre over their past thirty-six outings dating back to the regular season (18-18 ATS), covering six of their last ten games, along with four of their six in this series thus far. Philadelphia is 5-5 ATS in their last ten trips away from the City of Brotherly Love, while matching that ledger when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Nurse’s troops have covered NINE of their last eleven games immediately following a victory of 10+ points, while posting a 4-1 record ATS when playing on just one day of rest. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their fifty-fifth appearance in the playoffs, owning a 14-11 series record in the first round, including 5-2 dating back to 2018. However, the Sixers haven’t enjoyed much postseason success when it comes to the Celtics, whom they have crossed paths with on TWENTY-TWO previous occasions, winning just six of those series, while suffering elimination in each of their last five encounters. Hell, the last time that Philly sent Boston packing was in the 1982 Eastern Conference Finals, which was coincidentally the last time that they bested them in a Game Seven!!! As for more recent history, the 76ers are 5-5 straight-up and 7-3 ATS over the past ten affairs between these historic franchises, splitting their four meetings from this past regular season. Philadelphia is 4-6 ATS in their last ten trips to Beantown, while going 7-3 as an underdog regardless of the venue. On the injury front, Embiid continues to deal with abdominal pain following an emergency appendectomy that caused him to miss the first three games of this series, though all indications point towards the Cameroon international being good to go for tonight’s Game Seven. This could be nothing short of a cathartic finale for the big fella, who has met defeat at the hands of the Celtics on three separate occasions, the most recent being the 2023 Eastern Conference Semifinals, which ended in an ugly 112-88 rout in Beantown. Philly shot just 37.3% from the field and 8-of-37 from downtown (21.6%), with Embiid finishing with a disappointing 15 points on 5-of-18 shooting (27.7%) and 4 turnovers. Indeed, Boston has been something of a boogeyman for him, with the 32-year-old owning a 5-12 ledger against them in the playoffs. Looking ahead, if the 76ers manage to complete this improbable of comebacks, then they will be heading to Big Apple to battle the surging Knicks from Madison Square Garden.
Meanwhile, the Celtics (56-26, 2nd in Eastern Conference) are well acquainted with notions of adaptation and improvisation, though when in comparison to their adversary tonight, they have simply been much better at it, even if that may not appear to be the case given how these last few games have played out. After their bid to successfully defend their 2024 NBA Championship came to a crushing conclusion in last year’s East Semifinals, Boston was forced to destroy and rebuild; after (All-NBA Forward) Jayson Tatum tore his Achilles in that series, the franchise faced MAJOR luxury tax implications, forcing (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla and (President of Basketball Operations) Brad Stevens to cut costs in shipping away several veteran lynchpins from their championship run, including (2-way Point Guard) Jrue Holiday and (sharpshooting Center) Kristaps Porzingis. Of course, this left many pundits to expect 2025-2026 to be a gap year for the shamrocks, who would in turn benefit from an unexpectedly premium pick in an upcoming draft flush with talent, allowing them to reload and compete for another successful cycle. However, Mazzulla wasn’t having any of that, as the 37-year-old has done an outstanding job of coaching up this team, with many members of his rotation thriving in expanded roles. Derrick White, Peyton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, and Neemias Queta are all examples of this, though the most notable growth has come from (2024 Finals MVP) Jaylen Brown. Already a 5-time All-Star, Brown has ascended to another level this season, posting career-highs in a slew of categories including points (28.7), rebounds (6.9), and assists (5.1), all the while carrying a usage rate of 36.2%, which is 4.8 percentage points higher than his personal best. With all that in mind, the Celtics were already a stellar 41-21 in early March, and then Tatum (pictured below) made his long-awaited return. With his team once again looking capable of making a lengthy playoff run, the 28-year-old simply could not resist the temptation of taking part in it all; in sixteen games, he averaged 21.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.4 steals on shooting splits of 41.1/32.9/82.3. While the shooting percentages were indicative of a player working his way back into shape, this series has suggested that he is nearly back to 100%. Through the first four games, Tatum averaged 24.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 1.0 steal, while netting 49.3% of his attempts from the field and 38.2% from downtown. As has so often been the case under Mazzulla, the money ball has been the key to the Celtics’ playoff success, for better or for worse. As we touched upon earlier, Boston outscored Philadelphia on treys by a whopping 87 points over four contests, though in their three victories they were +105 (+35.0) in comparison to -18 in the lone game that they lost. Over the past two outings, it has been a vastly different story, as the Celtics struggled to throw a brick in the ocean on 23-of-80 shooting from three (28.8%), leading to a deficit of -9 points. They were 12-of-41 in this regard on Thursday night, which continues the trend of this group living and dying by the money ball. Sure, few things can swing a game like threes, but a few cold shooting performances can spell doom in the playoffs, which was the case in last year’s exit. With that being said, it is more than just missed shots, folks, for laying so many bricks can lead to early offensive opportunities for their opponent, while throwing away opportunities to get to the charity stripe, which is how you slow a game down. Case in point, Philly outscored them 16-14 in transition and made more free-throws (17) than the visitors even managed to attempt (16) in Game Six. The trio of Tatum, Brown, and White was relegated to a combined 46 points on 16-of-38 shooting (42.1%), including 7-of-18 from three (38.8%), while the rest of the team could muster just 47 points on 41.6% shooting and a dismal 5-of-22 from deep (22.7%).
From a betting perspective, the Celtics have certainly been one of the more rewarding sides in the Association this season against the spread (51-37), resulting in a healthy net profit of 8.90 units. This is a team that has been remarkably consistent for quite some time now, for since suffering a 4-game losing streak against the spread in late January, they have amassed a stellar 26-14 ledger on that front. Since Tatum returned from injury, Boston is 15-11 ATS, including 12-11 with him actually in the starting lineup. Mazzulla’s troops are 7-3 both SU and ATS in their last ten games in Beantown, while posting 7-3 and 6-4 ledgers in those respective categories when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they have covered SEVEN of their last nine contests at home and are in the midst of a 5-2 stretch ATS at home against an adversary with a winning road CV. However, they have now failed to cover the spread in all but one of their last five first round affairs. All-time, no franchise has enjoyed more postseason success than the Celtics, who are making their SIXTY-THIRD appearance in the playoffs, owning a 24-10 ledger in the first round, including four straight opening series victories. As we covered at length earlier, Boston has OWNED Philadelphia on this stage, posting a 16-6 series edge in a rivalry dating all the way back to 1965 and has gotten the better of them on five consecutive occasions, the most recent being the aforementioned 2023 Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-3). On the injury front, keep an eye on the status of Tatum, who is dealing with both stiffness in his left knee along with soreness in that same calf muscle, which should be cause for sounding the alarms in the Northeast. As we’ve seen in the past, calf discomfort an oftentimes serve as a precursor to much greater maladies, which is worth noting given this guy missed most of the campaign rehabbing from a ruptured Achilles. Needless to say, Tatum would be a HUGE loss in this finale; over the course of his career, he has averaged 21.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.2 steals on shooting splits of 45.4/35.8/82.0 against Philly, highlighted by a 51-point outburst in that finale from the 2023 East Semis. With all that in mind, the public appears to be backing off Boston a bit, with roughly 40% of all wagers placed upon the spread favoring the hosts, though it has been a very different story when it comes to the overall money being wagered thus far (58%). Looking ahead, if the Celtics do in fact manage to get back on track in Beantown, then they will be hosting the surging Knicks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, a rematch from last May’s disappointing defeat.