7:30 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Cavaliers -8.5, Total: 210.5
The First Round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs finally comes to a close tonight in this third and final Game Seven, as the Toronto Raptors and Cleveland Cavaliers will conclude their latest war with the winner advancing to the Eastern Conference Semifinals. No matter the outcome of tonight’s finale, it will be difficult to come away from this series with a feeling that these Raptors (46-36, 5th in Eastern Conference) didn’t overachieve, with a potentially bright future laying ahead of them. This is a franchise that has shown steady progression in their three years under the leadership of (Head Coach) Darko Rajakovic. It was a case of destroy-and-rebuild for the Serbian international when he was appointed in 2023, as Toronto went from 41-41 to 25-57 in his first year on the job, though would improve to 30-52 a year later, before experiencing a 16-game leap this season. So, what in the name of Vince Carter has transpired north of the border, you ask? Well, Rajakovic and (General Manager) Bobby Webster have rebuilt the roster largely upon the principals of length and versatility, which has resulted in one of the better defensive teams in the Association; true to their name, these dinosaurs are aggressive on that particular end of the hardwood, ranking ninth in points allowed (111.8) and fifth in defensive efficiency (113.0), along with tenth in field goal percentage allowed (46.7%), fourth in three-point percentage allowed (34.9%), second in assists allowed (24.5), and fourth in turnover percentage (14.3%). It also helps that their three brightest stars, (Swingmen) Brandon Ingram, Scottie Barnes, and R.J. Barrett are all strong two-way players. Despite being the only member of that triumvirate not to be named an All-Star this season, Barrett (pictured below) put in a strong campaign all the same, averaging 19.3 points on 49.1% shooting, along with 5.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists. With that being said, he has risen to the occasion in these playoffs, torching the Cavs to the tune of 24.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.0 steal on efficient shooting splits of 50.5/42.1/61.1. The Toronto native was decisive in Friday night’s epic 112-110 overtime victory at Scotiabank Arena, totaling 24 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, and a steal, while draining the game-winning trey in OT, a buzzer-beater that bounced straight up about a mile in the air off the back of the rim, eventually dropping softly through the nylon as the crowd lost its mind. While that shot was reminiscent of Kawhi Leonard’s series clincher in Game 7 of the 2019 Eastern Semifinals, it shouldn’t be forgotten that the hosts very nearly choked this game away. The Raptors led 92-81 heading into the fourth quarter, only to be outscored 23-12 in the period, conceding a late layup with 0:11 seconds left in regulation to force the extra stanza. As a team, Toronto shot a miserable 4-of-17 from the field (23.5%) in the fourth, including 1-of-7 from downtown (14.3%), committing more turnovers (4) than assists (2) along the way. However, they did enough early on to even the series, shooting 46.0% overall and 13-of-36 from three (36.1%), while manufacturing 25 points off 18 turnovers, many of which came in transition where they owned a commanding 20-6 edge in fast break points. Barnes led the way with 25 points and 14 assists, while (Sophomore Guard) Ja’Kobe Walter added 24 points of his own thanks in large part to 4-of-9 shooting from deep (44.4%). Now, with the series on the line, it will be interesting to see if they can finally claim a victory on the road; they have lost all three games thus far in Cleveland, where their defense has failed to travel, allowing 122.0 points on 53.4% shooting from the field and 43.5% from beyond the arc.
From a betting perspective, the Raptors come into this series finale with a mediocre ledger against the spread (46-42), parlaying to a net loss of 0.60 units. This is a team that has caught fire on that front, covering each of their last four outings in this series, including Friday night’s overtime thriller north of the border (+4.5). Toronto has really struggled in their last ten trips away from Scotiabank Arena (3-7 ATS), while posting a 4-6 mark ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, though have been better of late (4-1 ATS). All-time, this is a franchise that is making their fourteenth playoff appearance, owning a 6-7 series record in the opening round of the postseason. Interestingly, they have had plenty of history with the Cavaliers (mostly bad), meeting elimination at their hands three years in a row from 2016 to 2018, the most notable being a 2-4 series defeat in the 2016 Eastern Conference Finals. Looking at more recent history, the Raptors are 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS over the past ten encounters, including a 3-game sweep in this past regular season, though as we have seen thus far, the playoffs are different matter altogether. Toronto is also 4-5-1 ATS in their last ten ventures to Northern Ohio. Following Friday night’s epic finish, the public have fallen in love with these dinosaurs, as approximately 66% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing the visitors, while a slightly smaller share of the overall money being wagered in this regard has followed suit (58%). On the injury front, (veteran Guard) Immanuel Quickley has yet to see any action in this series due to a tender hamstring that had previously sidelined him for nine of eleven games down the stretch and will once again be out of commission for tonight’s finale. The bigger concern is the status of Ingram, who is dealing with a swollen heel after lasting just eleven minutes in Game Six. The lithe swingman was selected to his second All-Star team this season, averaging 21.5 points on 47.7% shooting, including 38.2% from three, along with 5.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists. With that being said, he has performed well below that standard in this series, putting up just 12.0 points on a dismal 32.8% shooting. Looking ahead, it should be noted that the Raptors are 3-2 in all Game Sevens that they have participated in, dropping the most recent, which came in the 2020 Eastern Semifinals against the Celtics. If Toronto happens to pull the upset tonight, then they will face the winner of today’s earlier matchup between the Pistons and Magic, potentially hosting the latter.
Meanwhile, make no mistake about it, folks: the pressure is squarely upon the shoulders of the Cavaliers (52-30, 4th in Eastern Conference) to take care of business tonight, otherwise this is shaping up to be a potentially eventful Summer in Northern Ohio. Indeed, this is a team that was expected by many to dominate the East after both the Celtics and Pacers suffered seismic losses to key players threatening to tank their respective campaigns, while Cleveland was coming off their second-most wins in franchise history (64) serving as the only stable contender in the conference. At least that was the story on paper, folks, and as we all know, these games aren’t played on paper. So, what in the name of Mark Price has happened in The Land, you ask? Well, (Head Coach) Kenny Atkinson was hired a year ago in large part to improve this team from an offensive perspective. While he has certainly done that, it has largely come at the expense of their once-formidable defense. The Cavs ranked first in the NBA last season in points scored and sit comfortably at fourth overall this year (119.5), along with eighth in field goal percentage (48.2%), second in two-point percentage (57.8%), eighth in assists (28.3), ninth in turnover percentage (26.9%), and ninth in offensive rebounding percentage (26.9%). However, they have fallen to fifteenth in points allowed (115.4), with a problematic showing against the money ball, where they have shipped 37.2% shooting in that regard (26th Overall). Granted, a lot of that is a schematic byproduct as this has long been a team that defends inside-out, with their twin towers, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen patrolling the paint and cleaning the glass. The more notable change was certainly personnel-driven, as the franchise acquired (8-time All-NBA Guard) James Harden shortly before the Trade Deadline. Of course, anytime a team acquires the well-traveled 3-time scoring champion (which has been often over the past five years), they are sure to get a lot better offensively, but also markedly worse on the defensive end. After flaming out in the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, the Cavaliers felt it necessary to add more firepower to their backcourt alongside (All-NBA Guard) Donovan Mitchell, which is something that Harden (pictured below) brings in spades. Since arriving in Cleveland, the bearded one has averaged 20.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 7.7 assists on shooting splits of 46.6/43.5/84.0, with the more important fact being that the team went 19-7 in games he played in. Together, he and Mitchell (pictured below) have combined for 44.3 points, 10.4 rebounds, 10.0 assists, and 2.8 steals in this series, though the former MVP has been rather careless with the rock in his hands, committing 5.7 turnovers along the way. This was the case in Game Six’s narrow 112-110 overtime defeat, where he could muster just 16 points on 5-of-14 shooting (35.7%) and was responsible for 4 of the Cavs’ 18 turnovers, which as we noted earlier, turned into 25 points for their opponent. Any time that Cleveland has coughed up the ball, Toronto has been off to the races, which again was evident on Friday night as Atkinson’s charges were bested 20-6 in transition. Thankfully, Mitchell and Mobley awoke in the fourth quarter, accounting for all but 3 of their side’s 23 points, with the latter forcing OT with a late layup. After the aforementioned Barrett’s clutch trey left one second on the clock, Mobley would have an opportunity to play hero, though his 29-footer failed to hit the mark. And now we return to Northern Ohio for what will be nothing short of a fateful finale. The implications of defeat will be seismic for the Cavaliers, as Atkinson will no doubt come under fire, along with (General Manager) Koby Altman, who rolled the dice on the 36-year-old Harden, who is once again seeking a new contract. As for Mitchell, rumors of his future will begin swirling again in full, while the cries to break up the twin towers will once again be heard from the faithful. In other words, it is just another day in The Land, folks.
From a betting perspective, the Cavaliers own the distinction of being the least-rewarding team left in this postseason field, logging a miserable 35-53 ledger against the spread, resulting in a harrowing loss of 21.50 units. That is a 21-game difference in comparison to their straight-up record, which is largely due to the wide public perception that they would indeed run away with the East this season. Building upon that is the fact that they are just 11-21 over their past thirty-two games dating back to the regular season, while failing to cover each of their last four outings in this series. Cleveland is 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last ten games at Rocket Arena, while splitting their past ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers (5-5 ATS). All-time, this is a franchise that is making their twenty-sixth appearance in the postseason, owning a 13-11 series record in the opening round. However, there is some not-so-subtle context here, folks, for the vast majority of the Cavs’ playoff success, particularly at this stage of the tournament is attributed to their time led by some guy named LeBron James (you may have heard of him). Indeed, with James in a Cleveland uniform, they are a perfect 9-0 in the first round, meaning that they are 4-11 in such series without the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. Granted, Northern Ohio may never truly get over the LeBron era, but at least their team is trying their best to do so, having advanced past the first round in each of the last two playoffs; they survived a 7-game war with Orlando in 2024, before sweeping Miami with ease a year ago. As we covered earlier, the Cavs have owned the Raptors in the postseason, winning FOURTEEN of their last nineteen meetings, though again, it should be noted that James was largely responsible for much of that portfolio, embarrassing the dinosaurs with a 12-2 ledger against them from 2016 to 2018. On the injury front, Atkinson has a largely healthy group on his hands with no major absences expected. Looking ahead, it should be noted that the Cavaliers are 6-2 in all Game Sevens that they have participated in, with their most recent coming just two years ago when they rallied to oust the Magic in the first round of the 2024 Playoffs. If Cleveland gets the job done tonight, then they will either be hosting Orlando or traveling to Detroit in a few days’ time.