8:30 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Thunder -15.5, Total: 213.5
The fourth and final Conference Semifinal tips off tonight at Paycom Arena, as the Los Angeles Lakers look to draw first blood against the surging (reigning NBA Champion) Oklahoma City Thunder. After getting bounced in the first round of the previous to playoffs, the shorthanded Lakers (53-29, 4th in Western Conference) are back in the semifinals after besting the Rockets, who were also dealing with significant absences of their own. After finally getting completely healthy and going on a stellar 16-2 run through the month of March, Los Angeles had the proverbial rug pulled out from under them when they received the news that both (All-NBA Guard) Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) would miss an indefinite amount of town with respective hamstring and oblique injuries. Needless to say, this was a HUGE blow to a team that was peaking at the right time, as Doncic, in his first full season in LA, went on to lead the Association in scoring for the second time in three years (33.5), while Reaves posted career-highs in points (23.3), rebounds (5.5), and steals (1.1). All the while, the 41-year-old LeBron James settled into a more complementary role than ever before, which is in stark contrast to the previous 21 years of his legendary career. With that being said, the 4-time MVP has continued to fill up the box score, averaging 20.9 points on 51.5% shooting, along with 6.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 1.2 steals. Now with rumors continuing to swirl over an uncertain future, James has been forced to once again play a leading role in a postseason run as the Lakers have gone from the team that nobody wanted to play in the first round, to becoming the optimal opponent given their losses. Unsurprisingly, James (pictured below) rose to meet the challenge, leading the Lakers to a commanding 3-0 lead without the collective presence of Doncic and Reaves, before eventually delivering the death blow in Friday night’s 98-79 finale. Resilience was the key word for (Head Coach) J.J. Redick’s charges, with many of the supporting cast stepping in more expanded roles. (Veteran Point Guard) Marcus Smart and (sharpshooter) Luke Kennard combined for 29.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 3.7 steals, while netting a collective 23-of-53 attempts from downtown (43.3%). (Versatile Forward) Rui Hachimura and (Center) Deandre Ayton were also formidable against Houston’s size and length, with the former posting 15.8 points on blistering shooting splits of 54.3/58.6, while the latter averaged a double-double with 11.8 points and 10.8 rebounds. As for LeBron, it wasn’t the most efficient series for the NBA’s all-time leading scorer, though it was nonetheless productive averaging 23.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 1.3 steals over the six games. Reaves even returned for Games Five and Six, though it was evident that he needed to remove the rust, as the -year-old shot just 36.7% from the field and 2-of-12 from three (16.7%), with 10 total turnovers in those two outings. This is something that will be imperative for not only Reaves, but the Lakers as a whole, to correct if they hope to have any chance of upsetting the Thunder, who absolutely THRIVE on forcing their opponents into damaging mistakes. Los Angeles dished out 23.2 assists in comparison to committing 17.7 turnovers against the Rockets, and in four meetings with Oklahoma City from this past regular season (all losses) authored a comparable line (22.5 assists, 17.5 turnovers). For those wondering, LA was -30 in points off turnovers in those outings, which is major reason as to why they were outscored by an average margin of 29.2 points.
From a betting perspective, the Lakers come into tonight’s potential clincher at a solid 49-39 record against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 5.10 units. This is a team that has covered SEVEN of their last nine outings, including the finale at Houston, where dismantled the Rockets despite being 5.5-point underdogs. Los Angeles is in the midst of a 4-6 malaise ATS in their last ten tilts away from Crypto.com Arena, while authoring an 7-3 ledger both SU and ATS over their past ten games as an underdog, which has clearly been a sweet spot for them. Redick’s troops are 11-1 ATS over their last twelve games immediately following a victory by 10+ points and are 5-1 ATS in their past six tilts when coming off a SU win. However, you would think that they would be better when enjoying a decent run of rest, but they have covered just two of their last nine games after having at least three days off, which is the case tongiht. All-time, this is a franchise that is certainly no stranger to the postseason, making their SIXTY-SIXTH appearance in the playoffs, owning a 37-12 series record in the Western Conference Semifinals, including a 5-2 ledger since 2008. The Lakers are 6-3 against the Thunder/Sonics, though it should be noted that they have split their two encounters with the former, with the most recent affair coming in the 2012 Western Semis, a 1-4 series defeat. As for more recent history, Los Angeles is 4-6 SU and ATS over their past ten meetings with Oklahoma City, though were swept in this past regular season (0-4 ATS), while splitting their last ten trips to Paycom Center (5-5 ATS). Over the course of his illustrious career, LeBron has averaged 27.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 7.0 assists against the Thunder, while in his lone encounter with them in the playoffs, the 2012 NBA Finals which resulted in his first Larry O’Brien trophy, he went for 28.6 points on 47.2% shooting, 10.2 rebounds, 7.4 assists, and 1.6 steals. Granted, that was over a decade ago, folks, so for those wondering, he featured in just two of the four matchups from this season, posting 17.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists. With tonight’s spread, so large, it is understandable that the public is tepidly confident in Los Angeles keeping things relatively competitive, as roughly 65% of all wages placed on that front are backing James & Co, with an even larger share of the overall sum of money wagered following suit (68%). On the injury front, we touched upon Doncic’s situation earlier, with the Slovenian international having missed the past eleven games due to a strained hamstring that was ironically suffered against the Thunder. Redick has stated that his return is still at least a week away, with a potential comeback for Games Three or Four in the cards. Looking ahead, the Lakers will remain in Oklahoma City for Game Two on Thursday night before the scene shifts to Los Angeles this weekend.
Meanwhile, after securing their first Larry O’Brien Trophy since the franchise was reborn in Oklahoma City, the Thunder (64-18, 1st in Western Conference) ran roughshod through the regular season and have positioned themselves as the favorite to repeat as champions. At first, it appeared as if OKC would threaten the Warriors’ single-season wins record (73), winning all but one of their first TWENTY-FOUR games, before promptly returning to earth. Once again, this group has been statistically dominant; (Head Coach) Mark Daigneault’s troops ranked fifth in points scored (119.0) and second allowed (107.9), seventh in offensive rating (118.9) and first in both defensive rating (107.7) and net rating (+11.1), marking the second straight campaign in which they sat atop the Association in that latter category. At the forefront is (reigning MVP) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is the favorite to take that prestigious award home with him once more, having already laid claim to Clutch Player of the Year honors. The 27-year-old averaged 31.1 points on a career-best 55.3% shooting from the field and 38.6% from beyond the arc, with 4.3 rebounds, 6.6 assists, and 1.4 steals. Of course, the prevailing discourse surrounding Gilgeous-Alexander (pictured below) has long been his innate knack for drawing fouls and getting to the charity stripe. This is the fourth consecutive campaign in which he has led the league in free-throws made (540), accounting for 25.5% of his point total. Historically, all of the great scorers have been adept at getting to the line and SGA is certainly no different, though for all of those that have complained about foul-baiting, he did make 51 fewer free-throws this season, attempting 55 less to boot. With all that being said, these Thunder are far more than simply a one-man band, which is something that the Suns found out firsthand in their sweep at the hands of the champs. Without (former All-Star Swingman) Jalen Williams, who exited the series due to a strained hamstring suffered in Game Two, Oklahoma City nonetheless proceeded to embarrass Phoenix, averaging a robust 122.8 points per game on 48.7% shooting from the field. While Gilgeous-Alexander (pictured below) posted 33.8 points on 55.1% shooting, the rest of the supporting cast performed as expected. (Center) Chet Holmgren was a force on both ends of the hardwood with 17.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.0 blocks, while netting 7-of-18 treys (38.9%), while (emerging Guard) Ajay Mitchell continued to come of age with 15.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.0 steal of his own. Furthermore, (Veteran Center) Isaiah Hartenstein (11.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 block) provided his typical physical presence in the paint, allowing Holmgren to roam freely, with the defensive duo of Alex Caruso and Luguentz Dort relentlessly hounding their opposition on the perimeter. It really speaks to the collective that has been assembled in OKC, where they can lose a large piece of the proverbial puzzle, yet manhandle an opponent all the same.
From a betting perspective, the Thunder may own the best record in the Association, but they haven’t been rewarding against the spread (41-45), resulting in a net loss of 8.10 units. This is a team that is 10-9 ATS over their last nineteen outings, splitting their 4-game sweep of the Suns, in which they were favored by double-digits in all but one of those tilts. Given their status as reigning champs, it is no surprise that Daigneault’s troops are no strangers to being sizable favorites, with the oddsmakers favoring them by 10+ points on a whopping FORTY-EIGHT occasions (23-25 ATS). OKC is 9-1 SU but 5-5 ATS in their last ten games at Paycom Center, while covering six of their past ten games as a favorite. Furthermore, they are 1-4 ATS in their last five appearances in the Western Conference Semifinals, while matching that ledger at home against an adversary owning a road win percentage north of .600, with both trends proving relevant tonight. Taking into account their time as the Sonics, this is a franchise that is making their thirty-fifth appearance in the playoffs, posting a 11-10 series record in the West Semis, including a 5-2 mark since moving to Oklahoma City. They have crossed paths with the Lakers on two occasions in the postseason (1-1), eliminating them a gentleman’s sweep in the 2012 Semifinals. As for this particular matchup, OKC is 6-4 SU and ATS in their last ten meetings, though have won and covered each of their last five affairs, including all four from this past season. Unsurprisingly, Gilgeous-Alexander has generally cooked against Los Angeles, with this campaign being no different, averaging a robust 27.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 8.0 assists, and 1.3 steals on shooting splits of 55.2/38.5/93.3. On the injury front, all eyes will continue to be on the status of the Williams, who missed the final two games of the previous series a sore hamstring. This is notable because he had missed FORTY-NINE games during the regular season due to complications with various injuries ranging from his knee to his hamstring, including a stretch of twenty-six out of twenty-eight games from late January to early mid-March. For those wondering, his team went 19-7 during that part of their schedule. On the season, Williams experienced a down year, averaging 17.1 points on 48.4% shooting, including a career-low 29.9% from three, with 4.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.2 steals, but against the Lakers posted 16.5 points, 6.0 boards, and 4.5 assists on just 37.0% shooting. Looking ahead, the Thunder have never lost a best-of-seven series after racing out to a 2-0 lead (14-0), while going on to win Game Three of that set on six occasions (42.8%).