7:00 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: 76ers -1.5, Total: 213.5
We should have a good idea how long this series is going to last, folks, as the New York Knicks look to take a commanding 3-0 series lead, while the Philadelphia 76ers are simply looking to get one on the board in this Game Three of the Eastern Conference Semifinals from the City of Brotherly Love. Make no mistake about it, the Knicks (53-29, 3rd in Eastern Conference) are absolutely peaking at the right time, winning each of their last five playoff games by a staggering 141 points. Perhaps more so than any other team in the East, New York was penciled in to represent the conference in the NBA Finals, filling the void leftover by the collective absence of Boston and Indiana, who were ravaged by significant injuries to star players and several offseason departures. However, this team made changes of their own, most notably the hire of (Head Coach) Mike Brown to finally get them over the hump. The 56-year-old was brought in to bring some new ideas to the room, extending what had been one of the shortest rotations in the Association all in an attempt to ensure a fresher group come playoff time. After all, this is team that had just advanced to their first East Final since 2000, so in theory they didn’t necessarily need wholesale changes to progress, particularly with two of their chief rivals expected to be stuck in a gap year. However, the transition was far from seamless. Meandering a bit at 25-18 in mid-January, it was looking as if this wouldn’t be the smoothest of marriages, though credit to Brown for not forcing his ideals down his roster’s throats and adjusting to what had worked for them in the past, particularly on the defensive end. From January 21st onwards, the Knicks finished the regular season on a 28-11 tear, outscoring their opposition by an even 10.0 points per game, shooting an efficient 48.9% from the field, outrebounding them by an industrious 6.2 boards, and forcing close to 15.0 turnovers (14.9). Both (clutch Point Guard) Jalen Brunson and (sharpshooting Center) Karl-Anthony Towns were selected as All-Stars, with the former logging 26.0 points on 46.7% shooting from the field and 36.9% from three, along with 3.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists, while the latter added 20.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists on shooting splits of 50.1/36.8/85.8. And as far as utilizing the bench more, Brown has done a good job of doing just that; his predecessor had every member of their starting five averaging at least 35.0 minutes per game, though in this season, only one member of that quintet (Brunson, 35.0) has hit that threshold. Their first-round matchup against the Hawks played out in a similar manner, as New York fell behind 2-1, only to find their footing and win the final three games by a staggering NINETY-SIX points, punctuated by a historic 140-89 beatdown in the dirty south. Over their past five outings, the rim must appear to be as wide as an ocean for a team that has averaged 125.0 points on 55.9% shooting and 41.0% from three during this stretch. The onslaught continued in the opener of this semifinal, with the Knickerbockers embarrassing Philadelphia in a 137-89 drubbing. With that being said, Wednesday night’s sequel was a far tighter affair altogether, even if the outcome was ultimately the same. Indeed, there were a whopping TWENTY-FIVE lead changes in the 108-102 victory, the hosts would eventually pull away in a fourth quarter that was akin to a proverbial rock fight. The hosts shot 43.8% from the field, while holding the visitors to a mere 4-of-19 (21.1%) in that frame, with none other than Brunson leading the charge, scoring 8 of his team-high 26 points. Together, he and Towns combined for 46 points on 15-of-29 shooting (51.7%), including an industrious 14-of-17 from the charity stripe (82.3%), along with 11 rebounds and 13 assists. (Veteran Forward) O.G. Anunoby added 24 points of his own, netting 9-of-17 attempts from the field (52.9%), with 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 steals, and a block. New York forced 18 turnovers in this one, manufacturing that total into a 23-9 edge in points from, leading to a 15-8 advantage in transition.
From a betting perspective, the Knicks come into tonight’s sequel at 49-42 against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 2.10 units. This is a team that has been rather streaky throughout the campaign, compiling SIX different streaks of four or more consecutive covers, while also suffering SEVEN different stretches consisting of at least three straight losses ATS. As such, they had covered four in a row during that offensive onslaught before seeing that streak snapped in Wednesday’s narrow victory (-10.5). However, they now find themselves as underdogs for the first time in these playoffs, where they have covered six of their last ten outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Brown’s troops are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten trips away from MSG, though are in the midst of an 8-2 run ATS immediately after earning a SU victory. With that being said, they are also just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a non-cover, which is precisely the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-seventh appearance in the playoffs, posting a 17-18 series record in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Knickerbockers have crossed paths with the 76ers on nine prior occasions (4-5), including three times at this stage of the postseason, losing all of them. New York has won and covered seven of their last ten meetings with the Sixers, while taking a stellar NINE of ten tilts contested in Philadelphia. With that in mind, the public fancies the Knicks in this one as approximately 65% of all wagers placed upon the spread are backing the visiting side, while a slightly smaller share of the overall sum of money wagered has followed suit (60%). On the injury front, keep an eye on the status of (Veteran Center) Mitchell Robinson, who is played just twelve minutes in the opener before missing Game Two with a reported illness. While the big fella is a key component to their defense, the bigger issue for Brown & Co is the potential absence of Anunoby, who popped on the injury report with a an ailing hamstring. The versatile Forward has been on quite a heater of late, averaging 22.0 points on 65.1% shooting, including 13-of-24 from deep (54.2%), with 7.0 boards and 2.2 steals over the past five games. Looking ahead, Knicks are 12-4 in all best-of-seven series after racing out to a 2-0 lead, going on to win Game Three of said set on just four occasions (25.0%).
Meanwhile, the last two seasons have been little more than a dissertation in adaptability and improvisation for the 76ers (45-37, 8th in Eastern Conference), who have been forced to swim in whatever direction that the tide has taken them. After getting bounced in the first round of the 2024 Playoffs (ironically to New York), Philadelphia was expected to compete at the top of the East, adding (All-Star Swingman) Paul George to the tandem of (2022-23 MVP) Joel Embiid and (rising star) Tyrese Maxey. However, injuries ravaged the rotation as Embiid was relegated to just nineteen contests, while George missed half of his first campaign leaving Maxey to carry the load for a team floundering to a 24-58 finish. With so much of their wage bill attributed to two aging, injury-prone stars, it appeared that they would be dead in the water for the foreseeable future, though Nurse and (President of Basketball Operations) Daryl Morey have done their best to split the baby and realign their future around Maxey and (2025 First Round Pick) V.J. Edgecomb. While that may seem like walking a tight rope, this approach has netted positive results; for a second time in three seasons, Maxey is an All-Star, posting career-highs in points (28.3), rebounds (4.1), assists (6.6), and steals (1.9), awhile leading the NBA in minutes played (38.0). As for Edgecomb, the Baylor product has been nothing short of solid, emerging as an athletic 2-way dynamo with 16.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.4 steals of his own. And it is a good thing that he has, for both Embiid and George have continued to miss games, missing over 40 apiece, with the former being held on a strict minute count and held out of back-to-backs following yet another offseason knee procedure, while the latter was hit with a 25-game suspension after running afoul of the Association’s substance abuse policy. Add it all up and the 76ers are clearly a team locked in a transitory state, which isn’t where you want to be in the playoffs. With all that being said, even the most faithful Sixers fan couldn’t have foreseen what has transpired in these playoffs. First, they rallied back from a 3-1 deficit to eliminate Celtics in a 109-100 victory in Game Seven in Beantown, marking their first series victory over their longtime nemesis since 1982. Nurse coached one helluva series, while Maxey, Edgecomb, and George each excelled in their own way, but the most notable turn of events was Embiid picking a great time to round back into form. The Cameroon international averaged 22.8 points on 44.8% shooting from the field, along with 8.7 rebounds, and 7.3 assists over this stretch, with his team being +10.3 points when he was on the court during that stretch. Unfortunately, relying on him to continue to deliver in such a manner, or simply be available may be too much to ask for moving forward. The big fella was held to just 14 points on 3-of-11 shooting (27.3%) in Game One’s ugly 137-98 drubbing at Madison Square Garden, before he was sidelined altogether in Wednesday night’s sequel (more on that shortly). Interestingly, the 76ers were much more competitive without him, pushing the Knicks to the limit in Game Two. Neither team led by more than seven points, as Maxey (26 points, 9-of-23 FG) and George (19 points, 7-of-18 FG) overcame poor shooting performances to give their side a chance in the end before eventually running out of gas. As we covered earlier, their inability to take care of the rock ultimately did them in (-14 points off turnovers), but one can’t help but feel that a healthy Embiid would have tipped the affair in their favor. Philadelphia was HAMMERED in the paint (56-30), which is where the 7′-0″, 280-pounder could’ve made a profound impact.
From a betting perspective, the 76ers are 49-41-1 against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 4.00 units. The outcome of the Game Two aside, this is a team that has been just about mediocre over their past thirty-nine outings dating back to the regular season (20-19 ATS), though have covered EIGHT of their past eleven games, including the final four of past five in the playoffs. Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in their last ten games contested in the City of Brotherly Love, while matching that ledger when favored by the oddsmakers. Unfortunately, Nurse’s troops are in the midst of a 3-10 stretch ATS at Wells Fargo Center against an adversary owning a winning road record, which is exactly what they face tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their fifty-fifth appearance in the playoffs, owning an 8-13 series record in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, though this has generally been where the buck has stopped for Philly; this is a side that has lost seven consecutive series at this stage of the postseason, with their last triumph coming over the Raptors in 2001. Furthermore, they’ll be facing another familiar foe that has given them fits in the past, as this series marks the tenth all-time meeting against the Knicks, whom they haven’t bested in the playoffs since 1983!!! Granted, we did just see them finally turn the tables against the Celtics, so exorcising demons could very well be the theme of this postseason. With that being said, the Sixers are a dismal 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS over their past ten encounters with New York and have been downright dreadful at home (1-9 SU & ATS). The last time that they met in the playoffs was the opening round in 2024, where they fell behind 3-1 before ultimately meeting elimination in six games. On the injury front, as always, keep an eye on the status of Embiid; the big fella missed the first three games of the previous series after undergoing an emergency appendectomy, and was sidelined in Wednesday night’s defeat nursing a sprained right ankle. He is currently listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s sequel in Philly. Looking ahead, the 76ers have NEVER won a best-of-seven series that they trailed 0-2 (0-15), having gone on to win Game Three of such sets on eight occasions (53.3%).