8:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Thunder -8.5, Total: 211.5
, Tonight we will have a concrete idea as to how long this series will last, as the (reigning NBA Champion) Oklahoma City Thunder look to take a commanding 3-0 lead over the fading Los Angeles Lakers, who are simply looking for any signs of life in Game Three of the Western Conference Semifinals from Crypto.com Arena. After securing their first Larry O’Brien Trophy since the franchise was reborn in Oklahoma City, the Thunder (64-18, 1st in Western Conference) ran roughshod through the regular season and have positioned themselves as the favorite to repeat as champions. At first, it appeared as if OKC would threaten the Warriors’ single-season wins record (73), winning all but one of their first TWENTY-FOUR games, before promptly returning to earth. Once again, this group has been statistically dominant; (Head Coach) Mark Daigneault’s troops ranked fifth in points scored (119.0) and second allowed (107.9), seventh in offensive rating (118.9) and first in both defensive rating (107.7) and net rating (+11.1), marking the second straight campaign in which they sat atop the Association in that latter category. At the forefront is (reigning MVP) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is the favorite to take that prestigious award home with him once more, having already laid claim to Clutch Player of the Year honors. The 27-year-old averaged 31.1 points on a career-best 55.3% shooting from the field and 38.6% from beyond the arc, with 4.3 rebounds, 6.6 assists, and 1.4 steals. Of course, the prevailing discourse surrounding Gilgeous-Alexander has long been his innate knack for drawing fouls and getting to the charity stripe. This is the fourth consecutive campaign in which he has led the league in free-throws made (540), accounting for 25.5% of his point total. Historically, all of the great scorers have been adept at getting to the line and SGA is certainly no different, though for all of those that have complained about foul-baiting, he did make 51 fewer free-throws this season, attempting 55 less to boot. With all that being said, these Thunder are far more than simply a one-man band, which is something that has become abundantly clear in these playoffs. Without (former All-Star Swingman) Jalen Williams, who exited the previous series due to a strained hamstring, Oklahoma City has nonetheless been dominant in averaging 120.7 points on 49.9% shooting from the field and 37.7% from three, while in turn relegating their foes to a mere 103.2 points on 44.9% shooting and forcing an industrious 17.2 turnovers along the way. (Center) Chet Holmgren has been a force on both ends of the hardwood, while (emerging Guard) Ajay Mitchell has continued to come of age, as (Veteran Center) Isaiah Hartenstein provides his typical physical presence in the paint, allowing Holmgren to roam freely. Furthermore, the defensive duo of Alex Caruso and Luguentz Dort relentlessly hound their opposition on the perimeter, which really speaks to the collective that has been assembled in OKC, where they can lose a large piece of the proverbial puzzle, yet manhandle their adversary all the same. This continues to be the case against the Lakers, whom they have outscored by a whopping 46 points through two games, despite SGA authoring a relatively subdued line of 20.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 5.0 turnovers. Granted, Los Angeles has blitzed him with waves of defenders thus far, all in an effort to stymie the reigning MVP, but all that has really done is allow the supporting cast to make them pay. Holmgren (pictured below) has been monstrous with 23.0 points, 10.5 boards, 2.0 assists, 2.5 steals, and 2.5 blocks on shooting splits of 57.1/71.4/81.8, while Mitchell and (Sophomore) Guard Jared McCain, who was acquired midseason from Philadelphia, have combined for another 34.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 6.0 assists, with the latter draining 8-of-10 treys thus far (80.0%). The Duke product poured in 18 points off the bench with a quartet of three-pointers, which played a large role in the hosts watershed 36-22 third quarter, en route to securing a 125-97 victory on Thursday.
From a betting perspective, the Thunder may own the best record in the Association, but they haven’t been rewarding against the spread (43-45), resulting in a net loss of 6.30 units. This is a team that is 12-9 ATS over their last twenty-one outings, taking four of their six playoff outings, all but one of which coming as double-digit favorites. Given their status as reigning champs, it is no surprise that Daigneault’s troops are no strangers to being sizable favorites, with the oddsmakers favoring them by 10+ points on a whopping FIFTY-THREE occasions (26-27 ATS). OKC is 8-2 SU but 5-5 ATS in their last ten games away from Paycom Center, while covering seven of their past ten games as a favorite. Furthermore, they are 3-4 ATS in their last five appearances in the Western Conference Semifinals, while finding themselves in a 1-5 malaise ATS on Saturdays, with both trends proving relevant tonight. Taking into account their time as the Sonics, this is a franchise that is making their thirty-fifth appearance in the playoffs, posting a 11-10 series record in the West Semis, including a 5-2 mark since moving to Oklahoma City. They have crossed paths with the Lakers on two occasions in the postseason since that transition (1-1), eliminating them in a gentleman’s sweep in the 2012 Semifinals. As for this particular matchup, OKC is 8-2 SU and ATS in their last ten meetings, winning and covered each of their last seven affairs. Unsurprisingly, Gilgeous-Alexander has generally cooked against Los Angeles, with this campaign being no different, averaging a robust 27.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 8.0 assists, and 1.3 steals on shooting splits of 55.2/38.5/93.3. With all that in mind, the public is firmly backing the reigning champs, as approximately 56% of all wagers placed upon the spread are riding with OKC, while a slightly smaller share of the overall money being wagered on this front has followed suit (52%) On the injury front, all eyes will continue to be on the status of the Williams, who has missed the last four games with a sore hamstring. This is notable because he had missed FORTY-NINE games during the regular season due to complications with various injuries ranging from his knee to his hamstring, including a stretch of twenty-six out of twenty-eight games from late January to early mid-March. For those wondering, his team went 19-7 during that part of their schedule. On the season, Williams experienced a down year, averaging 17.1 points on 48.4% shooting, including a career-low 29.9% from three, with 4.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.2 steals, but against the Lakers posted 16.5 points, 6.0 boards, and 4.5 assists on just 37.0% shooting. Looking ahead, the Thunder have never lost a best-of-seven series after racing out to a 2-0 lead (15-0), while going on to win Game Three of that set on seven occasions (46.6%).
Meanwhile, after getting bounced in the first round of the previous two playoffs, the shorthanded Lakers (53-29, 4th in Western Conference) may have managed to win their first series since 2023, though it appears that it will take something of a miracle to progress any further than that. After finally getting completely healthy and going on a stellar 16-2 run through the month of March, Los Angeles had the proverbial rug pulled out from under them when they received the news that both (All-NBA Guard) Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) would miss an indefinite amount of time with respective hamstring and oblique injuries. Needless to say, this was a HUGE blow to a team that was peaking at the right time, as Doncic, in his first full season in LA, went on to lead the Association in scoring for the second time in three years (33.5), while Reaves posted career-highs in points (23.3), rebounds (5.5), and steals (1.1). All the while, the 41-year-old LeBron James settled into a more complementary role than ever before, which is in stark contrast to the previous 21 years of his legendary career. With that being said, the 4-time MVP has continued to fill up the box score, averaging 20.9 points on 51.5% shooting, along with 6.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 1.2 steals. Now with rumors continuing to swirl over an uncertain future, James has been forced to once again play a leading role in a postseason run as the Lakers have gone from the team that nobody wanted to play in these playoffs, to becoming the optimal opponent given their losses. Unsurprisingly, James rose to meet the challenge, leading the Lakers to a 4-1 conquest of the Rockets in the first round, as various members of the supporting cast thrived in more expanded roles, before Reaves eventually returned to action. Unfortunately, this particularly showdown with the Thunder is proving to be another matter altogether, as Los Angeles is staring down the barrel of a potential 3-0 hole after getting pummeled in the first two games of the series. So, what in the name of Jerry West has happened, you ask? Well, LA was manhandled in all four meetings with OKC from this past regular season, due in large part to their inability to take care of the rock (17.5 turnovers). Despite their success in the previous series, Redick’s charges were leaking seriously oil in this regard (17.7 turnovers), with that flaw being exploited mercilessly in this affair with the defending champs. For those wondering, LA was -30 in points off turnovers against them in the regular season, which is major reason as to why they were outscored by an average margin of 29.2 points. Through two games in this series, they have turned it over 39 times already (19.5), leading directly to 46 points via those mistakes (-16). This played a major role in Thursday night’s 125-97 drubbing in Oklahoma City, as the visitors committed 21 turnovers for a loss of 26 points, while being killed 14-4 in transition. Despite shooting 50.0% from the field, including 11-of-29 from three (37.9%) from downtown, they still found themselves getting pulverized by 28 points. Everything went to @#$% in the third quarter, where the Lakers were outscored 36-22 due in large part to committing 7 of those turnovers, while the Thunder buried 4-of-6 treys (66.7%) and knocked down a prolific 12-of-14 free-throws (85.7%). that last bit was a sticking point for Los Angeles, with many players confronting the officiating crew after the game (pictured below), while Redick doubled down on the criticism in his post-game press conference.
From a betting perspective, the Lakers come into Game Three at a solid 49-41 record against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 3.10 units. This is a team that had covered seven of nine outings prior to the beginning of this series, though have failed to do in either of the first two chapters despite being SIZABLE underdogs (+15.5 in each game!!!). Los Angeles is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last ten tilts at Crypto.com Arena, while authoring a 6-4 ledger ATS over their past ten games when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Perhaps some home-cooking will aid Redick’s troops, who have covered THIRTEEN of their last sixteen outings in the City of Angels, while going 4-1 ATS in their last five games played on Saturdays (for what that’s worth). All-time, this is a franchise that is certainly no stranger to the postseason, making their SIXTY-SIXTH appearance in the playoffs, owning a 37-12 series record in the Western Conference Semifinals, including a 5-2 ledger since 2008. The Lakers are 6-3 against the Thunder/Sonics, though it should be noted that they have split their two encounters with the former, with the most recent affair coming in the 2012 Western Semis, a 1-4 series defeat. As for more recent history, Los Angeles is a woeful 2-8 SU and ATS over their past ten meetings with Oklahoma City, dropping all six of them dating back to the regular season, all but one of which decided by at least eighteen points. Over the course of his illustrious career, LeBron has averaged 27.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 7.0 assists against the Thunder, while in his lone encounter with them in the playoffs, the 2012 NBA Finals which resulted in his first Larry O’Brien trophy, he went for 28.6 points on 47.2% shooting, 10.2 rebounds, 7.4 assists, and 1.6 steals. Granted, that was over a decade ago, folks, so for those wondering, he featured in just two of the four matchups from this season, posting 17.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists. On the injury front, we touched upon Doncic’s situation earlier, with the Slovenian international having missed the past thirteen games due to a strained hamstring that he ironically suffered against the Thunder. Redick has stated that his return is still at least a week away, though it remains unlikely that he will be given the green light to return tonight. Furthermore, (Veteran Forward) Jarred Vanderbilt, who has been one of their best defensive options, will miss the rest of this series after suffering a gruesome dislocated finger in Game One. Looking ahead, the Lakers have only every rallied back from a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-seven series ONCE (1-22), besting the Spurs back in the 2004 Western Conference Semifinals, while going on to win Game Three of such series on thirteen occasions (56.5%).