7:30 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Spurs -4.5, Total: 217.5
A pivotal Game Four is on tap tonight in Minneapolis, where the reeling Minnesota Timberwolves look to draw level with the San Antonio Spurs, who in turn have designs on taking a commanding 3-1 lead before this Western Conference Semifinal shifts back to Southern Texas. All hail the rebirth of the Spurs (60-32, 2nd in Western Conference), who have returned to the playoffs after a 6-year drought, which should serve as a warning for the rest of the Association. From the 1997-98 campaign to 2018-19, this is a franchise that NEVER missed the postseason, advancing to SIX NBA Finals and hoisting FIVE Larry O’Brien trophies, though the years that have since past have been rather lean as San Antonio embarked on a state of transition. However, just as it did back in 1997, their fortunes changed when they landed the number one overall pick in the NBA Draft, selecting the towering Victor Wembanyama, altering the team’s future in an instant. Indeed, the NBA hasn’t seen such a unique talent in ages, as the lithe, 7′-4″ Center is just as capable of draining a three-point dagger off the dribble as he is of punishing an undersized defender in the paint, all the while serving as a virtual one-man safety net on the defensive end of the hardwood. Now in his third season, the Spurs have done a tremendous job of putting the requisite pieces around the 22-year-old to become a legitimate contender; (longtime General Manager) RC Buford is one of the very best in the business, while (Head Coach) Mitch Johnson has continued to develop the young talent at his disposal, with the likes of (Sophomore Guard) Stephon Castle and (Shooting Guard) Devon Vassell exhibiting rapid growth around the big fella. As for Wembanyama himself (pictured below), he became the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year in NBA history and is a serious contender for league MVP honors, averaging 25.0 points on 51.2% shooting from the field, along with 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steal, and an NBA-best 3.1 blocks. Furthermore, he has posted a PER (Player Efficiency Rating) of 29.9, with an on-court +/- of 16.4 points. Unsurprisingly, San Antonio has emerged as a defensive juggernaut with the Frenchman patrolling the paint, ranking eighth overall in points allowed (111.5), third in defensive efficiency (111.3), first in defensive rebounding percentage (77.3%), and first in free-throws/field goals attempted ratio (.180). That defense was the driving force behind their 4-1 conquest of the Trail Blazers in the first round and is the biggest reason that they currently lead this series through three games. Thus far, the Spurs have held the Wolves to 102.3 points on 41.2% shooting from the field and 24.4% from downtown, while permitting just 20.7 assists and forcing 15.7 turnovers. This continued to be the case in Friday night’s 115-108 victory in Minneapolis. The visitors relegated the hosts to 38.4% shooting overall and 22 assists, forced a dozen turnovers which they manufactured into 15 points, along with just 7 fast break points and 38 points in the paint. This is where Wembanyama has made the biggest impact, folks, for his presence has been enough to completely alter Minnesota’s approach in attack. The big fella has 19 blocks thus far, including a stunning 12 in Game One, which has pushed virtually all of the Wolves’ offense out towards the perimeter. Oh, and his offense repertoire finally revealed itself in Game Three, as he erupted for 39 points on 13-of-18 shooting (72.2%), including 3-of-5 from three (60.0%) and 10-of-12 from the charity stripe (83.3%), along with 14 rebounds and another 5 blocks. San Antonio led by as many as 15 points early, though would see their opponent close the gap in the fourth quarter, though this is where Wemby took charge, amassing 16 points, 6 boards, and a pair of blocks, while drilling a pair of daggers from deep to effectively end the affair.
From a betting perspective, the Spurs have been far more rewarding against the spread this season (52-37-1), leading to a net profit of 9.70 units. This is a team that has been remarkably consistent for roughly two months now, for they are a stellar 27-14 ATS since February 1st, covering ten of their last fourteen outings dating back to the regular season, including eight of twelve in these playoffs. San Antonio has won all but one of their last ten trips away from Frost Bank Center (8-2 ATS), while posting a 703 record SU and ATS over their past ten when favored by the oddsmakers. Johnson’s troops are in the midst of a 4-game winning streak ATS when playing on just one day of rest, while covering five of their last six contests immediately after scoring 100+ points, with both trends proving relevant tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, with this series marking their return following a 6-year hiatus. The Spurs are 14-11 in the Western Conference Semifinals, with their last series victory at this stage occurring back in 2017, a 4-2 conquest of the Rockets. Historically, San Antonio has gotten the better of Minnesota in the playoffs (2-0), the most notable encounter coming in the 1999 first round, which kicked off their run to claiming the franchise’s first NBA Title. As for more recent history, they have been bested by the Wolves in seven of their last twelve meetings, including two out of three from this past regular season. It has been a different ATS though, as the Spurs have covered five of the last seven tilts. Getting back to Wemby, the towering Frenchman featured in two of those tilts, averaging a robust 34.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.0 block on shooting splits of 48.8/38.9/87.5.0. On the injury front, Johnson has a relatively healthy rotation at his disposal, with the only absence being that of (Rookie Forward) David Jones Garcia, who has been out of commission since early January after undergoing ankle surgery. The Dominican Republic international played this season on a 2-way contract, logging just 6.2 minutes per game in eleven appearances. Looking ahead, the Spurs are 26-6 in all best-of-seven series in which they amassed a 2-1 lead through three games, going on to win Game Four of said series on eleven occasions (34.3%).
Meanwhile, for a team gunning for their third consecutive appearance in the Western Conference Finals, the Timberwolves (49-33, 6th in Western Conference), are going to need a serious turnaround to make that goal a reality. This has been a largely uneven campaign for Minnesota, who finished the regular season in a 9-10 malaise, forcing them to begin the playoffs on the road once again. Granted, it should be noted that eleven of their final fourteen contests came without the services of (4-time All-Star Swingman) Anthony Edwards, who has been nursing a bulky knee for months now, even missing the final three games of their improbable conquest of the Nuggets in the previous round of these playoffs. The 2-time All-NBA second team selection put together arguably his most efficient season yet, posting career-highs in a slew of categories, including points (28.8), field goal percentage (48.9%), and three-point percentage (39.9%) despite playing in a career-low 61 games. Edwards (pictured below) suffered a mild hyperextension to his knee in Game Three against Denver and was thus expected to miss multiple weeks of action, though attacked his rehab in relentless fashion in order to be ready for this series opener in San Antonio. On something of a pitch count, Ant provided 18 points off the bench as Minnesota fought tooth and nail to earn a narrow 104-102 victory. While stealing Game One was viewed as a major confidence builder for the Wolves, the results of the past two games have been nothing short of troubling. (Head Coach) Chris Finch watched his charges get embarrassed in a 133-95 drubbing in Southern Texas, before running out of gas in Friday night’s 115-108 defeat. The numbers tell the story, folks; through these two losses, the Timberwolves are -15 on three-pointers, -18 on free-throws, -10 on turnovers and -4 on points from, -30 on fast break points, and -30 on points in the paint. Needless to say, you’re not going to win many games at this stage when playing with such deficits. As we covered earlier, a lot of this can be attributed to the presence of the aforementioned Wembanyama, whose presence around the rim has forced Minnesota all but out of the paint, often settling for mid-range jumpers and treys. When you can’t get to the rim, you’re not going to get to the free-throw line, while the long rebounds that come as a result of failed threes allows the opponent to start their fast break. Even a healthier Edwards wasn’t enough to stem the tide in Game Three, as he logged a shade over forty minutes totaling 32 points on 12-of-26 shooting (46.2%), 14 rebounds, and 6 assists. (Former All-Star) Julius Randle and (emerging Forward) Jaden McDaniels, who were fundamental to their upset of the Nuggets in the previous round, struggled mightily in this one, shooting a combined 8-of-34 from the field (23.5%), while (Veteran Point Guard) Mike Conley Jr was held scoreless on 0-of-1 shooting.
From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves come into this potential clincher at 42-49 against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 11.20 units. With that being said, this is a team that has been a more rewarding play of late, covering FIFTEEN of their last twenty-five outings, including five of nine in the playoffs. Minnesota has is 6-4 SU and ATS in their last ten games at Target Center, while going 5-5 SU and ATS over their past ten tilts as an underdog. Finch’s troops have now failed to cover consecutive contests when enjoying only one day of rest, which immediately followed a streak of six straight covers on that front, while in the midst of a 6-3 run ATS versus an adversary owning a win percentage above .600, with both of those trends proving relevant tonight. Furthermore, it should be noted that this group has been resilient in posting an 8-2 ledger ATS when coming off a non-cover. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their fourteenth appearance in the playoffs, owning a perfect 3-0 record in the Western Conference Semifinals, which is a stage that they have now reached in three consecutive postseasons. These two franchises have crossed paths on just two prior occasions in the playoffs, both of which ended in 3-1 defeats in the first round (1999, 2001). Though he has been slowed by a bulky knee, Edwards was nothing short of STELLAR in the three regular season meetings with the Spurs, averaging a robust 36.7 points on ridiculous shooting splits of 58.5/51.9/70.6. The Wolves have won SEVEN of their last twelve affairs with San Antonio (5-7 ATS), while posting a favorable mark as an underdog (7-3 ATS). Despite that, the public don’t appear to be overly infatuated with Finch & Co, as approximately 35% of all wagers placed upon the spread are backing the hosts tonight, while a comparable share of the overall money wagered has followed suit (34%). On the injury front, as we touched upon earlier, (Veteran Guard) Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) will be done for the foreseeable future, which is definitely a blow to Minnesota’s depth; the 29-year-old logged 11.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists despite fairly poor shooting splits (33.3/29.0/90.0) though the first four games of the previous series, while putting up 16.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.7 assists in three encounters with San Antonio this season. Looking ahead, the Timberwolves have NEVER won a best-of-seven series in which they trailed 2-1 (0-4), having gone on to claim victory in Game Four on only one occasion (25.0%).