8:00 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Cavaliers -3.5, Total: 213.5
A pivotal Game Four is on tap tonight in Northern Ohio, as the Cleveland Cavaliers look to remain perfect at home and draw level with the top-seeded Detroit Pistons, who in turn have designs on taking a commanding 3-1 series lead back to the Motor City in this latest chapter of the Eastern Conference Semifinals from Rocket Arena. The Pistons (60-22, 1st in Eastern Conference) endured a sloppy start to the playoffs, rallying back from a 3-1 hole to eliminate the Magic in seven games, though have seemed to find their stride once their backs were pressed against the proverbial wall. Prior to Saturday’s 116-109 defeat, they had won five consecutive contests in large part to their stifling defense; Detroit relegated the opposition to a mere 96.0 points on 42.1% shooting and 32.8% from three, while outrebounding them by a margin of 9.6 boards and shipping just 20.4 assists opposed to forcing 14.8 turnovers. Indeed, this stretch run consistently with how (Head Coach) J.B. Bickerstaff’s charges have performed this season, in which they improved by a staggering SIXTEEN games. The Pistons placed eighth third in points allowed (109.6), with a net rating of +8.2, which is the third-highest mark in the Association. After earning his first All-Star and All-NBA nods last year, (versatile Guard) Cade Cunnigham has continued to make strides towards superstardom, emerging as the playmaking fulcrum that the club envisioned when they drafted him number one overall five years ago. Cunningham (pictured below) averaged 23.9 points on 46.1% shooting, along with 5.5 rebounds, 9.9 assists, and 1.4 steals, posting a PER of 21.6 and a +/- of 10.9, which are both career-highs. Keep in mind that the 24-year-old also missed eleven consecutive contests between March and April due to a partially collapsed lung that initially threatened to end his campaign altogether. The Oklahoma State product returned on a pitch count for the final three games, as Bickerstaff clearly wanted his man healthy and ready to go for the start of the playoffs, which was clearly the right decision as Cade has served as their metronome thus far. Simply put, when he plays well, so do the Pistons. In this series, he has averaged 25.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 9.0 assists, and 1.3 steals, while netting 7-of-17 treys (41.2%) and knocking down 22-of-25 free-throws (88.0%). He logged a triple-double in Game Three, totaling 27 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists, though he and his teammates let this one slip through their fingers as they could muster just 8 points over the final 5:00 of action. After draining a 29-footer to cut the deficit to 110-109 with 0:50 left to play, Cunningham & Co wouldn’t find the net the rest of the way, as Cleveland responded with a dagger of their own before putting the game out of reach at the charity stripe. In the end, that defense that has long been their hallmark was nowhere to be found as they allowed the hosts to shoot an untenable 58.1% from the field, while they themselves couldn’t take care of the rock, committing 16 turnovers for a loss of 27 points, 8 of which were charged to Cunningham. In fact, the only reason that this one was as close as it was, folks, was Detroit’s industrious nature on the offensive glass (17 offensive rebounds), which afforded them 17 more field goal attempts. (Veteran Forward) Tobias Harris scored 21 points on an efficient 7-of-14 shooting (50.0%), while (sharpshooter) Duncan Robinson and (All-Star Center) Jalen Duren combined for 26 points on 10-of-17 shooting (58.8%), 7 rebounds, 5 assists, and 7 steals.
From a betting perspective, the Pistons may have amassed the best record in the East, but they haven’t come close to being as rewarding against the spread (49-43), parlaying to a net return of 1.10 units. After beginning this playoff run failing to cover four out of five contests, this is a team that has since found their rhythm on a 4-1 run ATS coming into tonight’s sequel. Detroit has split their last ten trips away from Little Caesars Arena (5-5 SU & ATS), though have been nothing short of stellar as an underdog, winning seven out of ten such games outright (8-2 ATS). Bickerstaff’s troops are in the midst of an 12-5 run ATS immediately after scoring 100+ points in the previous outing, while covering four consecutive contests versus an adversary owning a win percentage north of .600. Furthermore, they have covered six of their past eight games at this semifinal stage, with the caveat that they haven’t advanced to this point in nearly two decades. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-fourth appearance in the playoffs, posting a 15-12 series ledger in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. As we touched upon, the Pistons haven’t been here since 2008, though have amassed a very strong portfolio, winning ELEVEN of the last thirteen semifinals that they have participated in, the most recent being a 4-1 triumph over the Magic eighteen years ago. Detroit has taken only one of their four postseason encounters with Cleveland, including a pair of ugly sweeps in the first round of the 2016 and 2019 playoffs, though by far and away the most notable meeting came in the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals; after racing out to a 2-0 lead, they proceeded to drop four straight games, including a 109-107 double overtime classic that saw LeBron James score 29 of his side’s final 30 points. As for present affairs, Cunningham struggled mightily against the Cavs in four regular season meetings, averaging 18.5 points on 43.2% shooting from the field, including 3-of-18 from downtown (16.7%), along with 6.8 boards, 8.0 dimes, and 1.2 steals. On the injury front, there are a couple of situations to keep an eye, as Bickerstaff’s backcourt could be without some key depth pieces as Kevin Huerter (thigh) and Caris LeVert (heel) are both listed as questionable with respective maladies. The former was added at the trade deadline to infuse some sorely needed perimeter shooting into the rotation, but has played sparingly in these playoffs, averaging just 1.5 points in 10.5 minutes over four games. As for the latter, the former Cavalier posted 7.4 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 2.7 assists in his first season with Detroit, but has also been little more than an afterthought in this postseason (3.0 points, 36.7% FG). Looking ahead, the Pistons are 15-2 in all best-of-seven series after building a 2-1 lead, going on to win Game Four on nine occasions (52.9%).
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers (52-30, 4th in Eastern Conference) are desperate to break through and reach their first Eastern Conference Final since 2018, particularly after meeting defeat at this stage in each of the last two playoffs. Indeed, this is a team that was expected by many to dominate the East after both the Celtics and Pacers suffered losses to key players threatening to tank their respective campaigns, while Cleveland was coming off their second-most wins in franchise history (64) serving as the only stable contender in the conference. At least that was the story on paper, folks, and as we all know, these games aren’t played on paper. So, what in the name of Zydrunas Ilgauskas has happened in The Land, you ask? Well, (Head Coach) Kenny Atkinson was hired a year ago in large part to improve this team from an offensive perspective. While he has certainly done that, it has largely come at the expense of their once-formidable defense. The Cavs ranked first in the NBA last season in points scored and sit comfortably at fourth overall this year (119.5), along with eighth in field goal percentage (48.2%), second in two-point percentage (57.8%), eighth in assists (28.3), ninth in turnover percentage (26.9%), and ninth in offensive rebounding percentage (26.9%). However, they have fallen to fifteenth in points allowed (115.4), with a problematic showing against the money ball, where they have shipped 37.2% shooting in that regard (26th Overall). Granted, a lot of that is a schematic byproduct as this has long been a team that defends inside-out with their twin towers, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, patrolling the paint and cleaning the glass. The more notable change was certainly personnel-driven, as the franchise acquired (8-time All-NBA Guard) James Harden shortly before the Trade Deadline. Of course, anytime a team acquires the well-traveled 3-time scoring champion (which has been often over the past five years), they are sure to get a lot better offensively, but also markedly worse on the defensive end. After flaming out in the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, the Cavaliers felt it necessary to add more firepower to their backcourt alongside (All-NBA Guard) Donovan Mitchell, which is something that Harden (pictured below) brings in spades. However, we doubt that they envisioned that they would be living and dying on the performances of the bearded one, or more precisely, whether he does or doesn’t take care of the rock. Much has been made of Harden’s struggles with turnovers in these playoffs, having committed 50 turnovers in 10 games thus far. In Cleveland’s five postseason wins, he has coughed it up 20 times in comparison to 30 turnovers in their five defeats, including 11 in the first two games against Detroit. Why is this a problem? The Cavs were outscored by NINETEEN points via turnovers in Games One and Two, before turning the tables in Saturday’s 116-109 victory. Indeed, the hosts still struggled in this department gifting the Pistons 19 points off 15 turnovers, though the difference would be that Harden & Co decided what was good for their opponent would also be good for them, scoring 27 points off 16 turnovers. This led to what was by far and away their most efficient offensive performance of the series, netting 58.1% of their overall attempts, including 12-of-32 from three (37.5%). With that being said, this one was a lot closer than they would have liked thanks to Detroit’s proficiency on the offensive glass and their own lapses from the charity stripe (18-of-28 FT), leaving someone, ANYONE, to play the potential hero. Enter Harden, who poured in 7 points in the final 1:30 of play, including a 25-foot dagger to extend the lead to 113-109 at the 0:25 mark. He would finish with 19 points, 7 assists, and a much more palatable 3 turnovers on 8-of-14 shooting (57.1%), while Mitchell posted a game-high 35 points, 10 boards, and 4 assists on 13-of-24 shooting (54.2%). Furthermore, Mobley and fellow big fella, (Veteran Center) Jarrett Allen, were forces around the rim, combining for 31 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, and 4 blocks on 11-of-17 shooting (64.7%).
From a betting perspective, the Cavaliers own the distinction of being the least-rewarding team left in this postseason field, logging a miserable 37-55 ledger against the spread, resulting in a harrowing loss of 21.70 units. That is a 20-game difference in comparison to their straight-up record, which is largely due to the wide public perception that they would run away with the East this season. Building upon that is the fact that they are just 13-23 over their past thirty-six games dating back to the regular season, while failing to cover all six of the road ventures in these playoffs. In contrast, they have been perfect at home with a 5-0 SU ledger in Northern Ohio (4-1 ATS), while posting a 6-4-mark ATS over their last ten games as a favorite. Furthermore, Atkinson’s troops are in the midst of a 1-5 stretch ATS immediately after scoring 100+ points, while struggling at this stage with one cover in their last five tilts in the conference semis. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their twenty-sixth appearance in the postseason, owning an 8-6 series record in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. However, there is some not-so-subtle context here, folks, for the vast majority of the Cavs’ playoff success, particularly at this stage of the tournament is attributed to their time led by the aforementioned James. Indeed, with LeBron in a Cleveland uniform, they are 6-3 in the semifinals, meaning that they are just 2-3 in such series without the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. In fact, they haven’t won such a series without him since 1992 when they outlasted the Celtics in a 7-game set. Coincidentally, this is where each of their previous two postseason runs came to a halt, losing to the Celtics and Knicks in respective Gentleman’s sweeps (1-4). As for this matchup with the Pistons, they have beaten Detroit in each of their past three playoff encounters, though it should be noted that each of those series took place during the James era. The Cavs are 5-5 both SU and ATS over their past ten affairs with the Pistons, posting a 7-3 CV ATS at Rocket Arena, while the Under in these battles is on a commanding 15-5-1 run. Given his heroics after an ugly showing in the first two games, it is worth noting that Harden had it rough against Detroit during the regular season where he was relegated to a dismal 26.7% shooting from the field and 6-of-25 from downtown (24.0%) over the course of three contests. Even with Game Four taking place in Northern Ohio, the public continues to back Detroit, as approximately 54% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are on the hosts, though it should be noted that overall money wagered on this front is split right down the middle (50%)On the injury front, Atkinson has a largely healthy rotation at his disposal with no absences expected tonight. Looking ahead, Cleveland is 6-8 in all best-of-seven series after trailing through three contests, going on to win Game Four of such series on nine occasions (64.2%).