8:00 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Spurs -9.5, Total: 218.5
A pivotal Game Five is on deck tonight in Southern Texas, where the Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs clash for a fifth time in nine days in this competitive Western Conference Semifinal. This one should be a telling affair, folks, for when a series is level at two games apiece, the winner of Game Five has gone on to win said series on roughly 82% of the time. Looking to advance to their third consecutive Western Conference Finals, the Timberwolves (49-33, 6th in Western Conference), have found themselves in that has very much been a fight, though one is left to wonder if the tide has truly turned in their favor following Sunday night’s 114-109 victory. This has been a largely uneven campaign for Minnesota, who finished the regular season in a 9-10 malaise, forcing them to begin the playoffs on the road once again. Granted, it should be noted that eleven of their final fourteen contests came without the services of (4-time All-Star Swingman) Anthony Edwards, who has been nursing a bulky knee for months now, even missing the final three games of their improbable conquest of the Nuggets in the previous round of these playoffs. The 2-time All-NBA second team selection put together arguably his most efficient season yet, posting career-highs in a slew of categories, including points (28.8), field goal percentage (48.9%), and three-point percentage (39.9%) despite playing in a career-low 61 games. Edwards (pictured below) suffered a mild hyperextension to his knee in Game Three against Denver and was thus expected to miss multiple weeks of action, though attacked his rehab in relentless fashion in order to be ready for this showdown with San Antonio. On something of a pitch count in Games One and Two, Edwards averaged just 24.5 minutes off the bench en route to 15.0 points, 3.0 boards, and 1.5 assists, though those safeguards would be discarded altogether once the scene shifted to Minneapolis. At home, the Georgia product has been a much greater factor in logging 40.5 minutes, 34.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists, netting an efficient 52.1% from the field and 42.9% from three. Sunday’s rally saw the hosts finally retake the lead late in a fourth quarter in which they outscored the Spurs 34-25, shooting a stellar 52.2% overall and 2-of-5 from deep (40.0%), while relegating the visitors to just 36.4% shooting along the way. Edwards erupted for 16 of his 36 points in that period, draining 6-of-8 attempts (75.0%), including each of his two attempts from beyond the arc, turning the tide via a 23-6 run. In the end, Minnesota was +12 from the perimeter, while being much more competitive from the charity stripe (-1), in the paint (-8), and in points conceded via turnovers (-2), which were three categories that they were utterly destroyed in over the previous two outings. Furthermore, the Wolves were very industrious in creating eight more field goal attempts for themselves largely due to 15 offensive rebounds, 10 of which coming courtesy of (4-time Defensive Player of the Year) Rudy Gobert and (former All-star Forward) Julius Randle. However, the BIG caveat here is that these figures were achieved largely after San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama was ejected for a flgrant-2 following a deliberate elbow to the neck of (Veteran Center) Naz Reid. The newly-minted Defensive Player of the Year was thrown out of the game early in the second quarter, completely changing the complexion of the game. All of a sudden, the hosts could drive to rim without fear of the towering Frenchman’s extraterrestrial wingspan.
From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves come into this potential clincher at 43-49 against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 10.30 units. With that being said, this is a team that has been a more rewarding play of late, covering SIXTEEN of their last twenty-six outings, including six of ten in the playoffs. Minnesota has is 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last ten games away from Target Center, while going 6-4 SU and ATS over their past ten tilts as an underdog. Finch’s troops have covered eight of their last ten contests when enjoying only one day of rest, while being in the midst of a 7-3 run ATS versus an adversary owning a win percentage above .600, with both of those trends proving relevant tonight. Furthermore, it should be noted that this group is also on a 6-2 march ATS immediately after scoring 100+ points. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their fourteenth appearance in the playoffs, owning a perfect 3-0 record in the Western Conference Semifinals, which is a stage that they have now reached in three consecutive postseasons. These two franchises have crossed paths on just two prior occasions in the playoffs, both of which ended in 3-1 defeats in the first round (1999, 2001). Though he has been slowed by a bulky knee, Edwards was nothing short of STELLAR in the three regular season meetings with the Spurs, averaging a robust 36.7 points on ridiculous shooting splits of 58.5/51.9/70.6. The Wolves have won eight of their last thirteen affairs with San Antonio (6-7 ATS), while posting a favorable mark as an underdog with seven covers in their past ten encounters. With that in mind, Finch & Co appear to be back in the good graces of the public, as approximately 63% of all wagers placed upon the spread are backing the visitors tonight, though a much smaller share of the overall money wagered has followed suit (54%). On the injury front, as we touched upon earlier, (Veteran Guard) Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) will be done for the foreseeable future, which is definitely a blow to Minnesota’s depth; the 29-year-old logged 11.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists despite fairly poor shooting splits (33.3/29.0/90.0) through the first four games of the previous series, while putting up 16.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.7 assists in three encounters with San Antonio this season. The aforementioned Reid is also listed as questionable with a sore right ankle, though people should be more concerned for his neck after taking that elbow from Wembanyama (more on him in a bit). The veteran forward has averaged 14.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, while shooting 52.5% from the field and 47.4% from downtown in this series. Looking ahead, the Timberwolves are 2-2 in all best-of-seven series in which they tied at 2-2, having gone on to claim victory in Game Five on only one occasion (25.0%).
Meanwhile, the Spurs (60-32, 2nd in Western Conference) have returned to the playoffs after a 6-year drought, which should serve as a warning for the rest of the Association. From the 1997-98 campaign to 2018-19, this is a franchise that NEVER missed the postseason, advancing to SIX NBA Finals and hoisting FIVE Larry O’Brien trophies, though the years that have since past have been rather lean as San Antonio embarked on a state of transition. However, just as it did back in 1997, their fortunes changed when they landed the number one overall pick in the NBA Draft, selecting the towering Victor Wembanyama, altering the team’s future in an instant. Indeed, the NBA hasn’t seen such a unique talent in ages, as the lithe, 7′-4″ Center is just as capable of draining a three-point dagger off the dribble as he is of punishing an undersized defender in the paint, all the while serving as a virtual one-man safety net on the defensive end of the hardwood. Now in his third season, the Spurs have done a tremendous job of putting the requisite pieces around the 22-year-old to become a legitimate contender; (longtime General Manager) RC Buford is one of the very best in the business, while (Head Coach) Mitch Johnson has continued to develop the young talent at his disposal, with the likes of (Sophomore Guard) Stephon Castle and (Shooting Guard) Devon Vassell exhibiting rapid growth around the big fella. As for Wembanyama himself (pictured below), he became the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year in NBA history and is a serious contender for league MVP honors, averaging 25.0 points on 51.2% shooting from the field, along with 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steal, and an NBA-best 3.1 blocks. Furthermore, he has posted a PER (Player Efficiency Rating) of 29.9, with an on-court +/- of 16.4 points. Unsurprisingly, San Antonio has emerged as a defensive juggernaut with the Frenchman patrolling the paint, ranking eighth overall in points allowed (111.5), third in defensive efficiency (111.3), first in defensive rebounding percentage (77.3%), and first in free-throws/field goals attempted ratio (.180). His influence in this series against the Timberwolves has been nothing short of SEISMIC, evidenced by how they’ve performed with him on and off the court. As we touched upon earlier, he was deservedly ejected early in the second quarter of Game Four’s 114-109 defeat after deliberately elbowing an opponent in the neck while jostling for the ball. Without him, the Spurs fell apart down the stretch, shipping 52.2% shooting in the fourth quarter, while shooting just 36.4% themselves. So, let’s take a moment to compare and contrast, shall we? In Games Two and Three, San Antonio was dominant in large part to Wembanyama’s presence; they were +15 on three-pointers, +18 on free-throws, +10 on turnovers and +4 on points from, +30 on fast break points, and +30 on points in the paint. On Sunday night, the only category that they continued to dominate in was transition points (+10), which is a direct reflection of his absence. However, it should be noted that (Rooke Guard) Dylan Harper continues to play well beyond his years, leading the team with 24 points off the bench, shooting 8-of-11 from the field (72.7%) with 7 boards and 3 steals.
From a betting perspective, the Spurs have been far more rewarding against the spread this season (52-38-1), leading to a net profit of 8.80 units. This is a team that has been remarkably consistent for roughly two months now, for they are a stellar 27-15 ATS since February 1st, covering ten of their last fifteen outings dating back to the regular season, including eight of thirteen in these playoffs. San Antonio has won seven of their past ten games at Frost Bank Center (6-4 ATS), while posting a 6-4 record SU and ATS over their past ten when favored by the oddsmakers, which has been the case in every game of this series. Johnson’s troops are in the midst of a 4-1 stretch ATS when playing on just one day of rest, while covering five of their last seven contests immediately after scoring 100+ points, with both trends proving relevant tonight. Furthermore, this has proven to be a resilient lot, owning a stellar 19-7 ledger ATS when coming off a SU defeat. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, with this series marking their return following a 6-year hiatus. The Spurs are 14-11 in the Western Conference Semifinals, with their last series victory at this stage occurring back in 2017, a 4-2 conquest of the Rockets. Historically, San Antonio has gotten the better of Minnesota in the playoffs (2-0), with the most notable encounter coming in the 1999 first round, which kicked off their run towards claiming the franchise’s first NBA Title. As for more recent history, they have been bested by the Wolves in seven of their last thirteen meetings, including two out of three from this past regular season. Getting back to Wemby, the towering Frenchman featured in two of those tilts, averaging a robust 34.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.0 block on shooting splits of 48.8/38.9/87.5.0. On the injury front, Johnson has a relatively healthy rotation at his disposal, though keep an eye on the status of (Veteran Point Guard) De’Aaron Fox, who is listed as questionable tonight with a sore ankle. The 2-time All-Star has averaged 16.2 points, 2.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.8 steals in this series, though has really struggled shooting the rock with splits of 37.9/22.2/72.2. Looking ahead, the Spurs are 13-10 in all best-of-seven series in which they are level through four games, going on to win Game Five of said series on thirteen occasions (56.5%).