8:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Pistons -4.5, Total: 211.5
A pivotal Game Five of this Eastern Conference Semifinal takes centerstage tonight in the Motor City, as the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons look to break the deadlock at Little Caesars Arena. After drawing level over the past two games, the Cavaliers (52-30, 4th in Eastern Conference) are desperate to break through and reach their first Eastern Conference Final since 2018, particularly after meeting defeat at this stage in each of the last two playoffs. Indeed, this is a team that was expected by many to dominate the East after both the Celtics and Pacers suffered losses to key players threatening to tank their respective campaigns, while Cleveland was coming off their second-most wins in franchise history (64) serving as the only stable contender in the conference. At least that was the story on paper, folks, and as we all know, these games aren’t played on paper. So, what in the name of Larry Nance has happened in The Land, you ask? Well, (Head Coach) Kenny Atkinson was hired a year ago in large part to improve this team from an offensive perspective. While he has certainly done that, it has largely come at the expense of their once-formidable defense. The Cavs ranked first in the NBA last season in points scored and sit comfortably at fourth overall this year (119.5), along with eighth in field goal percentage (48.2%), second in two-point percentage (57.8%), eighth in assists (28.3), ninth in turnover percentage (26.9%), and ninth in offensive rebounding percentage (26.9%). However, they have fallen to fifteenth in points allowed (115.4), with a problematic showing against the money ball, where they have shipped 37.2% shooting in that regard (26th Overall). The more notable change was certainly personnel-driven, as the franchise acquired (8-time All-NBA Guard) James Harden shortly before the Trade Deadline. Of course, anytime a team acquires the well-traveled 3-time scoring champion (which has been often over the past five years), they are sure to get a lot better offensively, but also markedly worse on the defensive end. After flaming out in the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, the Cavaliers felt it necessary to add more firepower to their backcourt alongside (All-NBA Guard) Donovan Mitchell, which is something that Harden (pictured below) brings in spades. However, the problem in these playoffs has been that this is a team that has been perfect at home, while going winless on the road. In six games at Rocket Arena, they have averaged 118.0 points and bested their foes by a margin of 9.3 points, shooting 51.0% from the field and 37.2% from downtown, while dishing out 22.3 assists in comparison to committing 15.5 turnovers. In their five road ventures, they have been decisively worse offensively, posting just 100.2 points on 42.1% shooting, including 28.5% from three, with 20.8 assists and a troubling 17.8 turnovers. Needless to say, that’s not a good ledger given that they don’t own homecourt in this series. Monday night’s 112-103 victory was a continuation of these trends, as the Cavaliers went on a 23-3 run in the third quarter to eventually draw level as two games apiece. Cleveland was +12 from deep and +21 from the charity stripe, while even making some headway in points off turnovers (+5). With that being said, this game was all about Mitchell (pictured below), who erupted for 43 points, 39 of which came in the second half, which stands as the single highest-scoring half in the history of the NBA Playoffs. After intermission, Mitchell was a ridiculous 12-of-18 shooting (66.7%), along with 12-of-13 from the free-throw line (92.3%), while the rest of his teammates scoring just 21 points. Harden held it down in the first half though, scoring 15 of his 24 points, while Mobley totaled 11 of his 17 prior to the break.
From a betting perspective, the Cavaliers own the distinction of being the least-rewarding team left in this postseason field, logging a miserable 38-55 ledger against the spread, resulting in a harrowing loss of 20.80 units. That is a 19-game difference in comparison to their straight-up record, which is largely due to the wide public perception that they would run away with the East this season. Building upon that is the fact that they are just 14-23 over their past thirty-seven games dating back to the regular season, while failing to cover all six of the road ventures in these playoffs. In contrast, they have been perfect at home with a 6-0 SU ledger in Northern Ohio (5-1 ATS), while posting a 5-5-mark ATS over their last ten games as an underdog. Furthermore, Atkinson’s troops have failed to cover five consecutive contests on the road against an adversary with a home win percentage above .600, while being int he midst of a 1-10 slump ATS on the road versus a foe with simply a winning home ledger. Also, they have been struggling at this particular stage with just two covers in their last six tilts in the conference semis. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their twenty-sixth appearance in the postseason, owning an 8-6 series record in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. However, there is some not-so-subtle context here, folks, for the vast majority of the Cavs’ playoff success, especially at this stage of the tournament is attributed to their time led by some guy named LeBron James (you may have heard of him). Indeed, with LeBron in a Cleveland uniform, they are 6-3 in the semifinals, meaning that they are just 2-3 in such series without the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. In fact, they haven’t won such a series without him since 1992 when they outlasted the Celtics in a 7-game set. Coincidentally, this is where each of their previous two postseason runs came to a halt, losing to the Celtics and Knicks in respective Gentleman’s sweeps (1-4). As for this matchup with the Pistons, they have beaten Detroit in each of their past three playoff encounters, though it should be noted that each of those series took place during the James era. The Cavs are 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS over their past ten affairs with the Pistons, posting a 3-5-2 CV ATS at Little Caesars Arena, while the Under in these battles is on a commanding 15-5 run. Given his heroics in Game Four, Micthell has been strong throughout this series, averaging a robust 33.0 points on 49.5% shooting, along with 6.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.0 steal thus far. With that being said, the public is keenly aware of his team’s persistent struggles on the road, as approximately 35% of all wagers placed upon the spread are backing the visitors, while an even smaller share of the overall money wagered has followed suit (28%). On the injury front, Atkinson has a largely healthy rotation at his disposal with no absences expected tonight. Looking ahead, Cleveland is 10-6 in all best-of-seven series after drawing level through four contests, going on to win what we know is historically a pivotal Game Five on ten occasions (62.5%).
Meanwhile, the Pistons (60-22, 1st in Eastern Conference) endured a sloppy start to the playoffs, rallying back from a 3-1 hole to eliminate the Magic in seven games, though have seemed to find their stride once their backs were pressed against the proverbial wall. Prior to Saturday’s 116-109 defeat, they had won five consecutive contests in large part to their stifling defense; Detroit relegated the opposition to a mere 96.0 points on 42.1% shooting and 32.8% from three, while outrebounding them by a margin of 9.6 boards and shipping just 20.4 assists opposed to forcing 14.8 turnovers. Indeed, this stretch run consistently with how (Head Coach) J.B. Bickerstaff’s charges have performed this season, in which they improved by a staggering SIXTEEN games. The Pistons placed eighth third in points allowed (109.6), with a net rating of +8.2, which is the third-highest mark in the Association. After earning his first All-Star and All-NBA nods last year, (versatile Guard) Cade Cunnigham has continued to make strides towards superstardom, emerging as the playmaking fulcrum that the club envisioned when they drafted him number one overall five years ago. Cunningham (pictured below) averaged 23.9 points on 46.1% shooting, along with 5.5 rebounds, 9.9 assists, and 1.4 steals, posting a PER of 21.6 and a +/- of 10.9, which are both career-highs. Keep in mind that the 24-year-old also missed eleven consecutive contests between March and April due to a partially collapsed lung that initially threatened to end his campaign altogether. The Oklahoma State product returned on a pitch count for the final three games, as Bickerstaff clearly wanted his man healthy and ready to go for the start of the playoffs, which was clearly the right decision as Cade has served as their metronome thus far. Simply put, when he plays well, so do the Pistons, which has certainly been the case in this series. This is particularly true when it comes to taking care of the rock, which has really been the situation through the playoffs as a whole. Cunningham has coughed up the ball 63 times in 11 games, including 22 turnovers in this series alone. Over the last losses, that figure clocks in at 13, including 8 in Game Three. Furthermore, in Detroit’s six postseason victories, he has averaged 5.0 turnovers per game, while in their five defeats that figure has ballooned to 6.6. Monday night’s 112-103 loss was more of the latter, as the All-Star finished with 19 points on 7-of-17 shooting (43.8%), with 3 rebounds, 6 assists, and 5 turnovers. As a team, the Pistons shipped 25 points off 20 turnovers, which brings their ledger in this regard to 52 points on 36 giveaways. With all that being said, there were still reasons for optimism in this one, folks, as the visitors shot a healthy 50.6% overall, owned a 12-6 edge in transition and a 50-34 advantage in the paint, and held their own in the points from turnovers department (20 points). Where this game was ultimately lost was at the charity stripe, where Bickerstaff’s outfit was ousted by a whopping 21 points (9-of-12 FT). One would expect them to receive more benefit of the doubt from the officials, right? Stay tuned, ladies and gentlemen…
From a betting perspective, the Pistons may have amassed the best record in the East, but they haven’t come close to being as rewarding against the spread (49-44), parlaying to a net return of 0.10 units. After beginning this playoff run failing to cover four out of five contests, this is a team that has since found their rhythm on a 4-2 run ATS coming into tonight’s pivotal sequel. Detroit has won all but one of their last ten games at Little Caesars Arena (7-3 ATS), though have split their past ten outings as a favorite (5-5 ATS). Bickerstaff’s troops are in the midst of an 12-6 run ATS immediately after scoring 100+ points in the previous outing, while covering five of their last seven home tilts versus an adversary owning a win percentage north of .600. Furthermore, they have covered six of their past nine games at this semifinal stage, with the caveat that they haven’t advanced to this point in nearly two decades. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-fourth appearance in the playoffs, posting a 15-12 series ledger in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. As we touched upon, the Pistons haven’t been here since 2008, though have amassed a very strong portfolio, winning ELEVEN of the last thirteen semifinals that they have participated in, the most recent being a 4-1 triumph over the Magic eighteen years ago. Detroit has taken only one of their four postseason encounters with Cleveland, including a pair of ugly sweeps in the first round of the 2016 and 2019 playoffs, though by far and away the most notable meeting came in the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals; after racing out to a 2-0 lead, they proceeded to drop four straight games, including a 109-107 double overtime classic that saw the aforementioned James score 29 of his side’s final 30 points. As for present affairs, Cunningham has endured an uneven series thus far, averaging 23.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 1.3 steals, while netting 9-of-22 treys (40.3%) though has shot just 39.5% overall and has committed 22 turnovers to boot. On the injury front, there are a couple of situations to keep an eye, as Bickerstaff’s backcourt could be without some key depth pieces as Kevin Huerter (thigh) and Caris LeVert (heel) are both listed as questionable with respective maladies. The former was added at the trade deadline to infuse some sorely needed perimeter shooting into the rotation, but has played sparingly in these playoffs, averaging just 1.5 points in 10.5 minutes over four games. As for the latter, the former Cavalier posted 7.4 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 2.7 assists in his first season with Detroit, but has also been little more than an afterthought in this postseason (3.0 points, 36.7% FG). There is also (Veteran Sharpshooter) Duncan Robinson, who has been dealing with lower-back soreness. This would be potentially the biggest blow, given he is their most dangerous weapon from downtown, having netted 15-of-26 in this series (57.7%). Looking ahead, the Pistons are 11-8 in all best-of-seven series that are squared away at 2-2, going on to win Game Five on ten occasions (55.5%).