7:00 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Cavaliers -3.5, Total: 209.5
The first of two seismic Game Sixes takes place tonight in Northern Ohio, where the Cleveland Cavaliers look to advance to their first Eastern Conference Final since 2018, while the Detroit Pistons are in turn simply looking to force a decisive Game Seven. For the second time in these playoffs, the Pistons (60-22, 1st in Eastern Conference) find themselves facing elimination on the road, though they hope that recent history will repeat itself. This is a team that endured a sloppy start to the playoffs, rallying back from a 3-1 hole to eliminate the Magic in seven games, though have seemed to find their stride once their backs were pressed against the proverbial wall. They had won five consecutive contests in large part to their stifling defense; Detroit relegated the opposition to a mere 96.0 points on 42.1% shooting and 32.8% from three, while outrebounding them by a margin of 9.6 boards and shipping just 20.4 assists opposed to forcing 14.8 turnovers. Indeed, this stretch ran consistently with how (Head Coach) J.B. Bickerstaff’s charges have performed this season, in which they improved by a staggering SIXTEEN games. The Pistons placed eighth third in points allowed (109.6), with a net rating of +8.2, which is the third-highest mark in the Association. After earning his first All-Star and All-NBA nods last year, (versatile Guard) Cade Cunnigham has continued to make strides towards superstardom, emerging as the playmaking fulcrum that the club envisioned when they drafted him number one overall five years ago. Cunningham (pictured below) averaged 23.9 points on 46.1% shooting, along with 5.5 rebounds, 9.9 assists, and 1.4 steals, posting a PER of 21.6 and a +/- of 10.9, which are both career-highs. Keep in mind that the 24-year-old also missed eleven consecutive contests between March and April due to a partially collapsed lung that initially threatened to end his campaign altogether. The Oklahoma State product returned on a pitch count for the final three games, as Bickerstaff clearly wanted his man healthy and ready to go for the start of the playoffs, which was clearly the right decision as Cade has served as their metronome thus far. Simply put, when he plays well, so do the Pistons, which has certainly been the case in this series. This is particularly true when it comes to taking care of the rock, which has really been the situation through the playoffs as a whole. Cunningham has coughed up the ball 69 times in 12 games, more than any other player in these playoffs. Over the last three losses, that figure clocks in at 19, including 6 in Game Five’s controversial 117-113 overtime loss. Wednesday night’s affair was a bad night for the faithful at Little Caesars Arena for a variety of reasons. The hosts led by as many as 15 points in the first half before Cleveland retook the lead in the fourth quarter, only for Detroit to go on an 8-0 run with 5:00 left to play in regulation. However, everything went to @#$% from there, as the Pistons went scoreless over the final 2:30 of action, incurring a pair of shot clock violations, before finally finding themselves on the wrong end of a controversial non-foul on the final possession before OT. After the Cavaliers missed a potential game-winner, the ensuing loose ball saw (Sophomore Swingman) Ausar Thompson tripped in pursuit of the rock, though no foul was called. In the extra period, the home side continued to remain cold offensively, shooting 4-of-11 from the field (36.4%), including 0-of-3 from downtown. When it was all said and done, Detroit did an awful lot of good in this game, owning significant advantages points off turnovers (+11), in the paint (+10), and in transition (+16), all the while earning 15 more shot attempts thanks to forcing 17 turnovers and collecting 15 offensive rebounds. However, they were -9 from three and for the second consecutive contest were obliterated at the charity stripe (-13). In Games Four and Five, Bickerstaff & Co were outscored by a combined 34 points in this regard.
From a betting perspective, the Pistons may have amassed the best record in the East, but they haven’t come close to being as rewarding against the spread (49-45), parlaying to a net loss of 0.90 units. This is a team that has been largely mediocre on that front in these playoffs, posting a 5-6 ledger ATS. Detroit is 4-6 both SU and ATS in their last ten games away from Little Caesars Arena, though have been much better as underdogs with a 6-4-mark SU and 7-3 ATS. Bickerstaff’s troops have failed to cover four consecutive contests immediately after suffering a SU defeat, are in the midst of a 1-5 malaise ATS on the road, and are 1-4 ATS versus an adversary owning a home win percentage above .500. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-fourth appearance in the playoffs, posting a 15-12 series ledger in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. As we touched upon, the Pistons haven’t been here since 2008, though have amassed a very strong portfolio, winning ELEVEN of the last thirteen semifinals that they have participated in, the most recent being a 4-1 triumph over the Magic eighteen years ago. Detroit has taken only one of their four postseason encounters with Cleveland, including a pair of ugly sweeps in the first round of the 2016 and 2019 playoffs, though by far and away the most notable meeting came in the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals; after racing out to a 2-0 lead, they proceeded to drop four straight games, including a 109-107 double overtime classic that saw the some guy named LeBron James score 29 of his side’s final 30 points. As for present affairs, Cunningham has endured a bit of an uneven series thus far, averaging 26.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 8.4 assists, 1.4 steals, while netting 15-of-32 treys (46.9%) though has shot just 41.7% overall and has committed a troubling 28 turnovers to boot. After the events of Game Five, the public has all but fled Detroit, as approximately 33% of all wagers placed upon the spread are backing the visitors, while an even smaller share of the overall sum of money wagered has followed suit (29%). On the injury front, (Veteran Sharpshooter) Duncan Robinson, who has been dealing with lower-back soreness for about a week now. This would be potentially a sizable blow, given he is their most dangerous weapon from downtown, having netted 15-of-26 in this series (57.7%). Looking ahead, the Pistons are 5-11 in all best-of-seven series that that they have trailed 3-2, going on to win Game Six on eight occasions (50.0%).
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers (52-30, 4th in Eastern Conference) find themselves on the precipice of reaching their first Eastern Conference Final since 2018. Indeed, this is a team that was expected by many to dominate the East after both the Celtics and Pacers suffered losses to key players threatening to tank their respective campaigns, while Cleveland was coming off their second-most wins in franchise history (64) serving as the only stable contender in the conference. At least that was the story on paper, folks, and as we all know, these games aren’t played on paper. So, what in the name of Larry Nance has happened in The Land, you ask? Well, (Head Coach) Kenny Atkinson was hired a year ago in large part to improve this team from an offensive perspective. While he has certainly done that, it has largely come at the expense of their once-formidable defense. The Cavs ranked first in the NBA last season in points scored and sit comfortably at fourth overall this year (119.5), along with eighth in field goal percentage (48.2%), second in two-point percentage (57.8%), eighth in assists (28.3), ninth in turnover percentage (26.9%), and ninth in offensive rebounding percentage (26.9%). However, they have fallen to fifteenth in points allowed (115.4), with a problematic showing against the money ball, where they have shipped 37.2% shooting in that regard (26th Overall). The more notable change was certainly personnel-driven, as the franchise acquired (8-time All-NBA Guard) James Harden shortly before the Trade Deadline. Of course, anytime a team acquires the well-traveled 3-time scoring champion (which has been often over the past five years), they are sure to get a lot better offensively, but also markedly worse on the defensive end. After flaming out in the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, the Cavaliers felt it necessary to add more firepower to their backcourt alongside (All-NBA Guard) Donovan Mitchell, which is something that Harden (pictured below) brings in spades. However, the problem in these playoffs has been that this is a team that has been perfect at home, while going winless on the road. In six games at Rocket Arena, they have averaged 118.0 points and bested their foes by a margin of 9.3 points, shooting 51.0% from the field and 37.2% from downtown, while dishing out 22.3 assists in comparison to committing 15.5 turnovers. In their five road ventures, they have been decisively worse offensively, posting just 100.2 points on 42.1% shooting, including 28.5% from three, with 20.8 assists and a troubling 17.8 turnovers. Needless to say, that’s not a good ledger given that they don’t own homecourt in this series. Of course, what did they do on Thursday night? They won a damn road game. Simply put, THIS is the kind of fight and grit that we’ve all wanted to see out of the Cavs in this postseason, as the visitors rallied back from a 15-point deficit to force overtime and eventually earn the 117-113 victory. Trailing 103-94 with exactly 3:00 left in regulation, Cleveland went on to score the final 9 points off the game, benefitting from that non-call on what appeared to be a clear loose-ball foul as time expired. In OT, they outscored Detroit 14-10, shooting 4-of-8 from the field with Mitchell scoring half of their point total. On the whole, Atkinson’s outfit continued to enjoy a sizable advantage from the charity stripe (+34 over the past two games), including a +13 edge on Thursday night. Harden (pictured below) turned in one of his better playoff performances in years, totaling 30 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 blocks, despite shooting just 8-of-21 from the field (38.1%) and committing 6 turnovers.
From a betting perspective, the Cavaliers own the distinction of being the least-rewarding team left in this postseason field, logging a miserable 39-55 ledger against the spread, resulting in a harrowing loss of 21.70 units. That is a 20-game difference in comparison to their straight-up record, which is largely due to the wide public perception that they would run away with the East this season. Building upon that is the fact that they are just 15-23 over their past thirty-eight games dating back to the regular season. In contrast, they have been perfect at home with a 6-0 SU ledger in Northern Ohio (5-1 ATS), while posting a 6-4-mark ATS over their last ten games as a favorite. Furthermore, Atkinson’s troops are int he midst of a 4-1 run ATS against a foe owning a road win percentage north of .600. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their twenty-sixth appearance in the postseason, owning an 8-6 series record in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. However, there is some not-so-subtle context here, folks, for the vast majority of the Cavs’ playoff success, especially at this stage of the tournament is attributed to their time led by the aforementioned James. Indeed, with LeBron in a Cleveland uniform, they are 6-3 in the semifinals, meaning that they are just 2-3 in such series without the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. In fact, they haven’t won such a series without him since 1992 when they outlasted the Celtics in a 7-game set. Coincidentally, this is where each of their previous two postseason runs came to a halt, losing to the Celtics and Knicks in respective Gentleman’s sweeps (1-4). As for this matchup with the Pistons, they have beaten Detroit in each of their past three playoff encounters, though it should be noted that each of those series took place during the James era. The Cavs are 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS over their past ten affairs with the Pistons, posting a 7-3 CV ATS at Rocket Arena, while the Under in these battles is on a commanding 15-6 run. Given his heroics in Game Five, Harden has endured his ups and downs in this series, averaging 21.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks, though has shot just 39.0% from the field and 12-of-37 from three (32.4%), while committing 22 turnovers. On the injury front, Atkinson has a largely healthy rotation at his disposal with no absences expected tonight. Looking ahead, Cleveland is 11-1 in all best-of-seven series after building a 3-2 lead, going on to win Game Six on six occasions (50.0%)