9:30 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Spurs -4.5, Total: 218.5
All eyes are focused on Minneapolis, where one team can punch their ticket to the Western Conference Finals, while the other hopes to prolong this series, as the Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves clash tonight in Game Six of the Western Conference Semifinals from Target Center. Don’t look now, folks, but the Spurs (60-32, 2nd in Western Conference) are literally one game away from advancing to their first Western Final since 2017. This is a franchise that has returned to the playoffs after a 6-year drought, which should serve as a warning for the rest of the Association; from the 1997-98 campaign to 2018-19, this is a franchise that NEVER missed the postseason, advancing to SIX NBA Finals and hoisting FIVE Larry O’Brien trophies, though the years that have since past have been rather lean as San Antonio embarked on a state of transition. However, just as it did back in 1997, their fortunes changed when they landed the number one overall pick in the NBA Draft, selecting the towering Victor Wembanyama, altering the team’s future in an instant. Indeed, the NBA hasn’t seen such a unique talent in ages, as the lithe, 7′-4″ Center is just as capable of draining a three-point dagger off the dribble as he is of punishing an undersized defender in the paint, all the while serving as a virtual one-man safety net on the defensive end of the hardwood. Now in his third season, the Spurs have done a tremendous job of putting the requisite pieces around the 22-year-old to become a legitimate contender; (longtime General Manager) RC Buford is one of the very best in the business, while (Head Coach) Mitch Johnson has continued to develop the young talent at his disposal, with the likes of (Sophomore Guard) Stephon Castle and (Shooting Guard) Devon Vassell exhibiting rapid growth around the big fella. As for Wembanyama himself (pictured below), he became the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year in NBA history and is a serious contender for league MVP honors, averaging 25.0 points on 51.2% shooting from the field, along with 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steal, and an NBA-best 3.1 blocks. Furthermore, he has posted a PER (Player Efficiency Rating) of 29.9, with an on-court +/- of 16.4 points. Unsurprisingly, San Antonio has emerged as a defensive juggernaut with the Frenchman patrolling the paint, ranking eighth overall in points allowed (111.5), third in defensive efficiency (111.3), first in defensive rebounding percentage (77.3%), and first in free-throws/field goals attempted ratio (.180). His influence in this series against the Timberwolves has been nothing short of SEISMIC, evidenced by how they’ve performed with him on and off the court. After he was deservedly ejected early in the second quarter of Game Four’s 114-109 defeat after deliberately elbowing an opponent in the neck while jostling for the ball, the Spurs fell apart down the stretch, shipping 52.2% shooting in the fourth quarter, while shooting just 36.4% themselves. So, let’s take a moment to compare and contrast, shall we? In Games Two and Three, San Antonio was dominant in large part to Wembanyama’s presence; they were +15 on three-pointers, +18 on free-throws, +10 on turnovers and +4 on points from, +30 on fast break points, and +30 on points in the paint. It was clear that the big fella has a chip on his shoulder in Game Five, a 126-97 thumping of the Wolves, in which he erupted for 27 points, 17 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 blocks. As a whole, the hosts shot a blistering 52.8% from the field, including 11-of-32 from downtown (34.4%), and 21-of-27 from the free-throw line (77.8%). Five other players scored in double-figures, including (Sixth Man of the Year) Keldon Johnson, who finally arrived in this series with 21 points on 8-of-11 shooting (72.7%) off the bench.
From a betting perspective, the Spurs have been very rewarding against the spread this season (53-38-1), leading to a net profit of 9.70 units. This is a team that has been remarkably consistent for over three months now, for they are a stellar 28-15 ATS since February 1st, covering eleven of their last sixteen outings dating back to the regular season, including nine of fourteen in these playoffs. San Antonio has won eight of their last ten games away from Frost Bank Center (7-3 ATS), while posting a 7-3 record SU and ATS over their past ten when favored by the oddsmakers, which has been the case in every game of this series. Johnson’s troops have also covered six of their last eight contests immediately after scoring 100+ points, which is once again the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, with this series marking their return following a 6-year hiatus. The Spurs are 14-11 in the Western Conference Semifinals, with their last series victory at this stage occurring back in 2017, a 4-2 conquest of the Rockets. Historically, San Antonio has gotten the better of Minnesota in the playoffs (2-0), with the most notable encounter coming in the 1999 first round, which kicked off their run towards claiming the franchise’s first NBA Title. As for more recent history, they have been bested by the Wolves in seven of their last fourteen meetings, including two out of three from this past regular season. Getting back to Wemby, the towering Frenchman been strong in this series, averaging 20.0 points on 50.7% shooting from the field, along with 13.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 4.4 blocks, though his efficiency from downtown has left a lot to be desired (26.9%). It is clear that the public feels that San Antonio will not only close it out tonight, but cover the line to boot, as a commanding 75% of all wagers placed upon the spread are backing the visitors, while an even larger share of the overall money wagered has followed suit (86&). On the injury front, Johnson has a relatively healthy rotation at his disposal, with no major absences to report. Looking ahead, the Spurs are 16-3 in all best-of-seven series in which they have led 3-2, going on to win Game Six of said series on THIRTEEN occasions (68.4%).
Meanwhile, facing elimination in this matchup are the Timberwolves (49-33, 6th in Western Conference), who find themselves with their backs firmly against the wall following Tuesday night’s 126-97 drubbing. This has been a largely uneven campaign for Minnesota, who finished the regular season in a 9-10 malaise, forcing them to begin the playoffs on the road once again. Granted, it should be noted that eleven of their final fourteen contests came without the services of (4-time All-Star Swingman) Anthony Edwards, who has been nursing a bulky knee for months now, even missing the final three games of their improbable conquest of the Nuggets in the previous round of these playoffs. The 2-time All-NBA second team selection put together arguably his most efficient season yet, posting career-highs in a slew of categories, including points (28.8), field goal percentage (48.9%), and three-point percentage (39.9%) despite playing in a career-low 61 games. Edwards (pictured below) suffered a mild hyperextension to his knee in Game Three against Denver and was thus expected to miss multiple weeks of action, though attacked his rehab in relentless fashion in order to be ready for this showdown with San Antonio. On something of a pitch count in Games One and Two, Edwards averaged just 24.5 minutes off the bench en route to 15.0 points, 3.0 boards, and 1.5 assists, though those safeguards would be discarded altogether once the scene shifted to Minneapolis. At home, the Georgia product proved to be a much greater factor in logging 40.5 minutes, 34.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists, netting an efficient 52.1% from the field and 42.9% from three. However, that ugly loss in Game Five featured a more subdued performance from Edwards, who finished with 20 points on 6-of-13 shooting (46.2%), 2 rebounds, 2 assists, and 4 turnovers. Then again, the whole team really struggled on the offensive end, folks, as the visitors netted just 38.6% of their overall attempts from the field, including 9-of-33 from beyond the arc (27.3%), committed nearly as many turnovers (16) as assists (17), and were absolutely annihilated in the paint (-32). As we hinted at in our preview for Game Five, Finch & Co fought tooth and claw to rally back and even this series, despite Wembanyama being ejected after delivering that elbow to the neck of (Veteran Center) Naz Reid. With that in mind, Minnesota was +12 from the perimeter, while being much more competitive from the charity stripe (-1), in the paint (-8), and in points conceded via turnovers (-2), which were major improvements after Games Two and Three, where they were a harrowing -15 on three-pointers, -18 on free-throws, -10 on turnovers and -4 on points from, -30 on fast break points, and -30 on points in the paint. For those wondering, the Wolves finished Tuesday night with minor deficits in three-pointers (-6), turnovers (-1) and points off (-1), fast break points (-4), but Wemby’s presence in the paint proved to be the decisive factor. The argument to be made is that this is a team that is fortunate to still be alive in a series in which they benefitted greatly from poor execution from their opponent in the waning moments of the opener, while receiving a lifeline with the Frenchman’s aforementioned dismissal.
From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves come into this potential clincher at 43-50 against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 11.30 units. With that being said, this is a team that has been a more rewarding play of late, covering sixteen of their last twenty-seven outings, including six of eleven in these playoffs. Minnesota is 6-4 both SU and ATS in their last ten games at Target Center, while splitting their past ten tilts as an underdog on both fronts. Finch’s troops have covered four of their last five tilts in Minneapolis, while matching that ledger when coming off a SU loss, with both of those trends proving relevant tonight. Furthermore, it should be noted that this group is in the midst of a wider 7-19 malaise immediately after shipping 125+ points. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their fourteenth appearance in the playoffs, owning a perfect 3-0 record in the Western Conference Semifinals, which is a stage that they have now reached in three consecutive postseasons. These two franchises have crossed paths on just two prior occasions in the playoffs, both of which ended in 3-1 defeats in the first round (1999, 2001). Though he has been hindered by that bulky knee, Edwards has been strong in this series, averaging 23.6 points on 50.0% shooting, along with 5.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists, while netting 10-of-25 treys (40.0%). The Wolves have won eight of their last fourteen affairs with San Antonio (6-8 ATS), while posting a favorable mark as an underdog with seven covers in their past eleven encounters. On the injury front, (Veteran Guard) Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) will be done for the foreseeable future, which is definitely a blow to Minnesota’s depth; the 29-year-old logged 11.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists despite fairly poor shooting splits (33.3/29.0/90.0) through the first four games of the previous series, while putting up 16.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.7 assists in three encounters with San Antonio this season. Looking ahead, the Timberwolves are 1-3 in all best-of-seven series in which they have trailed 3-2, having gone on to claim victory in Game Six on only one occasion (25.0%).