8:00 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Pistons -4.5, Total: 206.5
We have reached the end of the line of the Conference Semifinals, where the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons stand level after six games and are set to clash one final time in this decisive Game Seven from Little Caesars Arena. They are the sweetest two words in sports: Game Seven. After gaining the upper hand in this series following their first road win of these playoffs, the Cavaliers (52-30, 4th in Eastern Conference) simply couldn’t stand prosperity and now find themselves in yet another decisive seventh game, where they could either advance to their first Eastern Conference Final since 2018 or descend into an offseason littered with uncertainty. All-time this is a franchise that is 7-2 in Game Sevens, winning each of their last five such series finales, including that of their conquest of the Raptors in the previous round of the playoffs. Indeed, this is a team that was expected by many to dominate the East after both the Celtics and Pacers suffered losses to key players threatening to tank their respective campaigns, while Cleveland was coming off their second-most wins in franchise history (64) serving as the only stable contender in the conference. At least that was the story on paper, folks, and as we all know, these games aren’t played on paper. So, what in the name of Craig Ehlo has happened in The Land, you ask? Well, (Head Coach) Kenny Atkinson was hired a year ago in large part to improve this team from an offensive perspective. While he has certainly done that, it wasn’t enough to push the Cavs past this particular stage of the postseason, as they were trounced by the Knicks a year ago. Midway through the current campaign, it was clear that the attack required further reinforcements, so the franchise acquired (8-time All-NBA Guard) James Harden shortly before the Trade Deadline. Of course, anytime a team acquires the well-traveled 3-time scoring champion (which has been often over the past five years), they are sure to get a lot better offensively. However, the partnership between the bearded one and (All-Star Guard) Donovan Mitchell has been a bit an uneven one, at least from a results perspective, evidenced by playing in their second Game Seven in as many series. Each has experienced their ups and downs in this matchup with the Pistons, with Mitchell erupting for 43 points in Game Four and Harden going for 30/8/6 in Game Five, which coincidentally was Cleveland’s first road win of the postseason, though with an opportunity to win the series in Northern Ohio, what did they do, you ask? Well, they were embarrassed in a 115-94 defeat. This one was a close affair until the second half, where the hosts were outscored 61-43, shooting a dismal 29.3% from the field and 5-of-18 from beyond the arc (27.8%), while committing more turnovers (7) than assists (5). Harden did score 16 of his 23 points post intermission, but he finished the contest with 8 turnovers, bringing his total during the playoffs to an untenable 66 in 13 games. At 36-years old, he simply doesn’t have the acceleration to effortlessly get by defenders anymore, and as we’ve seen in these two series against Toronto and Detroit, their aggressive tenacity has clearly disrupted him. In 6 playoff losses, he has averaged 6.3 turnovers opposed to 5.8 assists, which is untenable for a floor general. The Cavaliers coughed up the rock a total of 20 times on Friday night, leading directly to 28 points for the visiting side for a deficit of 11 points via turnovers. In fact, in their three defeats in this series, they have logged 51 turnovers trailing by 30 points on that front. Cleveland shot just 39.0% as a team in Game Six, with Mitchell limited to 18 points on 6-of-20 shooting (30.0%). Now they’ll be expected to go on the road and turn these trends around in tonight’s finale in the Motor City, which as we hinted at earlier, could send them into an offseason full of change. If they fail to advance once again, will they sign Harden to the lucrative extension he has been searching for? Will Mitchell, who has a player option, commit his future to the club? Will the franchise retain the services of Atkinson? Will they once again try to bring LeBron James back home? Stay tuned, ladies and gentlemen…
From a betting perspective, the Cavaliers own the distinction of being the least-rewarding team left in this postseason field, logging a miserable 39-56 ledger against the spread, resulting in a harrowing loss of 20.90 units. That is a 20-game difference in comparison to their straight-up record, which is largely due to the wide public perception that they would run away with the East this season. Building upon that is the fact that they are just 15-24 over their past thirty-nine games dating back to the regular season. Atkinson’s troops won only one playoff game away from Northern Ohio (2-4 ATS), while splitting their last ten games as underdog ATS. Furthermore, they are in the midst of a dreadful 1-9 run ATS on the road against a foe owning a winning home record, including 1-5 ATS when that opponent’s home win percentage resides north of .600, while covering just FIVE of their last twenty-six road games overall. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their twenty-sixth appearance in the postseason, owning an 8-6 series record in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. However, there is some not-so-subtle context here, folks, for the vast majority of the Cavs’ playoff success, especially at this stage of the tournament is attributed to their time led by the aforementioned James. Indeed, with LeBron in a Cleveland uniform, they are 6-3 in the semifinals, meaning that they are just 2-3 in such series without the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. In fact, they haven’t won such a series without him since 1992 when they outlasted the Celtics in a 7-game set. Coincidentally, this is where each of their previous two postseason runs came to a halt, losing to the Celtics and Knicks in respective Gentleman’s sweeps (1-4). As for this matchup with the Pistons, they have beaten Detroit in each of their past three playoff encounters, though it should be noted that each of those series took place during the James era. The Cavs are 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS over their past ten affairs, posting a 4-5-1 CV ATS at Little Caesars Arena, while the Under in these battles is on a commanding 16-6 run, including 8-3-1 when contested in the Motor City. Given that this is a Game Seven, it is worth reviewing Harden’s history in such tilts; the bearded one is 4-4 in eight previous Game Sevens, averaging 19.1 points on 35.9% shooting, including just 26.4% from three, along with 5.7 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 2.6 steals, and 3.7 turnovers. However, he has really struggled of late with a 1-3 ledger dating back to 2021, mustering 14.0 points per game on poor 27.6% shooting and 19.2% from downtown. On the injury front, Atkinson could be without (Backup Forward) Larry Nance Jr, who has been dealing with an illness and is thus listed as questionable for tonight’s finale, though it should be noted that the 33-year-old has yet to even feature in this series.
Meanwhile, for the second time in these playoffs, the Pistons (60-22, 1st in Eastern Conference) successfully faced elimination on the road and now once again find themselves competing in a decisive Game Seven. All-time, this is a franchise that is 6-4 in these series finales, though they have won each of their last five, including their triumph over the Magic in the previous round. This is a team that endured a sloppy start to the postseason, rallying back from a 3-1 hole to eliminate Orlando in seven games, though have seemed to find their stride once their backs were pressed against the proverbial wall. They have won six their last nine contests in large part to their stifling defense; Detroit relegated the opposition to 102.1 points on 44.0% shooting and 34.4% from three, while outrebounding them by a margin of 6.2 boards and shipping just 20.8 assists opposed to forcing 15.7 turnovers. Indeed, this stretch has run consistently with how (Head Coach) J.B. Bickerstaff’s charges have performed this season, in which they improved by a staggering SIXTEEN games. The Pistons placed eighth in points scored (117.8) and third in points allowed (109.6), with a net rating of +8.2, which is the third-highest mark in the Association. After earning his first All-Star and All-NBA nods last year, (versatile Guard) Cade Cunnigham has continued to make strides towards superstardom, emerging as the playmaking fulcrum that the club envisioned when they drafted him number one overall five years ago. Cunningham (pictured below) averaged 23.9 points on 46.1% shooting, along with 5.5 rebounds, 9.9 assists, and 1.4 steals, posting a PER of 21.6 and a +/- of 10.9, which are both career-highs. Keep in mind that the 24-year-old also missed eleven consecutive contests between March and April due to a partially collapsed lung that initially threatened to end his campaign altogether. The Oklahoma State product returned on a pitch count for the final three games, as Bickerstaff clearly wanted his man healthy and ready to go for the start of the playoffs, which was clearly the right decision as Cade has served as their metronome thus far. Simply put, when he plays well, so do the Pistons, which has certainly been the case in this series. This is particularly true when it comes to taking care of the rock, which has really been the situation through the playoffs as a whole. Cunningham has coughed up the ball 76 times in 13 games, more than any other player in these playoffs, and in their three losses in this series, that figure clocks in at 26. Thankfully, even 7 turnovers couldn’t keep he and his teammates from drawing level in Friday night’s dominant 115-94 victory. The visitors coughed up the rock 18 times as a a team, though nonetheless shot a blistering 52.4% from the field, including 16-of-36 from beyond the arc (44.4%), while owning a commanding 48-26 advantage in the paint. Of course, a lot of this has to do with forcing plenty of turnovers themselves, which we covered earlier in this post. Bickerstaff’s charges outscored his former ones 28-17 in points off turnovers, which led to a 14-8 edge in transition. Defensively, they held the hosts 39.0% shooting overall, including a mere 29.3% in the second half, where they outscored them by a whopping 18 points. Cunningham led the way with 21 points and 8 assists, while five other teammates scored in double-figures, including Daniss Jenkins, Ausar Thompson, and Paul Reed, who combined for 42 points.
From a betting perspective, the Pistons may have amassed the best record in the East, but they haven’t come close to being as rewarding against the spread (50-45), remarkably parlaying to neither a profit nor loss of units. This is a team that has been largely mediocre on that front in these playoffs, posting a 6-6 ledger ATS. Detroit is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last ten games at Little Caesars Arena, though haven’t been as strong as favorites with a 6-4-mark SU and 5-5 ATS. Bickerstaff’s troops have covered four of five contests immediately following a SU victory and are in the midst of a 5-2 run ATS versus an opponent with a win percentage above .600, though are just 1-4 ATS in their last five tilts played on Sundays. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-fourth appearance in the playoffs, posting a 15-12 series ledger in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. As we touched upon, the Pistons haven’t been here since 2008, though have amassed a very strong portfolio, winning ELEVEN of the last thirteen semifinals that they have participated in, the most recent being a 4-1 triumph over the Magic eighteen years ago. Detroit has taken only one of their four postseason encounters with Cleveland, including a pair of ugly sweeps in the first round of the 2016 and 2019 playoffs, though by far and away the most notable meeting came in the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals; after racing out to a 2-0 lead, they proceeded to drop four straight games, including a 109-107 double overtime classic that saw the aforementioned James score 29 of his side’s final 30 points. As for present affairs, Cunningham has endured a bit of an uneven series thus far, averaging 25.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 1.2 steals, while netting 20-of-42 treys (47.6%) though has shot just 41.0% overall and has committed a troubling 35 turnovers to boot. After the events of Game Six, Detroit has returned to the good graces of the public, as approximately 61% of all wagers placed upon the spread are backing the hosts, while a comparable share of the overall sum of money wagered has followed suit (58%). On the injury front, (Veteran Sharpshooter) Duncan Robinson returned to the rotation on Friday night and scored 14 points off the bench, though the availability of (All-Star Center) Jalen Druen is currently in doubt. The big fella left Game Six with an apparent ankle malady, though it is currently unclear if this was just a precaution on Bickerstaff’s behalf (given that the affair was out of hand) or something more serious. Thus far, Duren has authored an uneven series, averaging 10.3 points on 51.0% shooting, along with 7.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 block.