8:30 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Thunder -6.5, Total: 221.5
The Final four of the NBA is set, as the San Antonio Spurs face off against the (reigning NBA Champion) Oklahoma City Thunder in for what all intents and purposes should be a bonafide heavyweight showdown in Game One of the Western Conference Finals from Paycom Center. That isn’t hyperbole, folks, for this particular matchup marks the first time since the 1998 NBA Finals (Bulls/Jazz) that we have seen two teams meet in a series that have each won at least 62 games. Don’t look now, folks, but the Spurs (62-20, 2nd in Western Conference) have now advanced to their first Western Final since 2017. This is a franchise that has returned to the playoffs after a 6-year drought, which should serve as a warning for the rest of the Association; from the 1997-98 campaign to 2018-19, this is a franchise that NEVER missed the postseason, advancing to SIX NBA Finals and hoisting FIVE Larry O’Brien trophies, though the years that have since past have been rather lean as San Antonio embarked on a state of transition. However, just as it did back in 1997, their fortunes changed when they landed the number one overall pick in the NBA Draft, selecting the towering Victor Wembanyama, altering the team’s future in an instant. Indeed, the NBA hasn’t seen such a unique talent in ages, as the lithe, 7′-4″ Center is just as capable of draining a three-point dagger off the dribble as he is of punishing an undersized defender in the paint, all the while serving as a virtual one-man safety net on the defensive end of the hardwood. Now in his third season, the Spurs have done a tremendous job of putting the requisite pieces around the 22-year-old to become a legitimate contender; (longtime General Manager) RC Buford has long been one of the very best in the business, while (Head Coach) Mitch Johnson has continued to develop the young talent at his disposal, with the likes of (Sophomore Guard) Stephon Castle, (Rookie Guard) Dylan Harper, and (Sixth Man of the Year) Devon Vassell each exhibiting rapid growth around the big fella. As for Wembanyama himself (pictured below), he became the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year in NBA history, while averaging 25.0 points on 51.2% shooting from the field, along with 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steal, and an NBA-best 3.1 blocks. Furthermore, he has posted a PER (Player Efficiency Rating) of 29.9, with an on-court +/- of 16.4 points. Unsurprisingly, San Antonio has emerged as a defensive juggernaut with the Frenchman patrolling the paint, ranking eighth overall in points allowed (111.5), third in defensive efficiency (111.3), first in defensive rebounding percentage (77.3%), and first in free-throws/field goals attempted ratio (.180). With all that being said, all anyone is talking about in terms of this matchup with OKC is the fact that they defeated the defending champs FOUR times during the regular season. The Spurs averaged 114.4 points on an efficient 47.1% shooting, including 36.0% from three, while owning the glass (+3.2), particularly on the offensive end (+2.4), while dishing out 24.4 assists opposed to committing 13.4 turnovers. And that is the key in this matchup, folks, for Johnson’s charges have done a tremendous job of not helping the Thunder. No team in the Association has benefitted more from exploiting their foes’ mistakes than Oklahoma City, and no team in the league has been better at not doing that against them than San Antonio. In those four victories, they committed just 4 more turnovers and were +5 in points off, which allowed them to control the tempo in their favor via a +15 edge in fast break points. Then there is Wembanyama, who in addition to keeping them off the glass has helped level matters in the paint, which is another area of the court that OKC thrives. His side is -16 in paint points in those wins, averaging to a deficit of just 4.0 points per game.
From a betting perspective, the Spurs have been very rewarding against the spread this season (54-38-1), leading to a net profit of 10.60 units. This is a team that has been remarkably consistent for over three months now, for they are a stellar 29-15 ATS since February 1st, covering twelve of their last seventeen outings dating back to the regular season, including ten of fifteen in these playoffs. San Antonio has won eight of their last ten games away from Frost Bank Center (7-3 ATS), while posting a 7-3 ledger ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Johnson’s troops are on a 7-1 run ATS immediately after shipping 100+ points, which is precisely the case tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, with this series marking their grand return following a 6-year hiatus. The Spurs are 6-8 in the Conference Finals, with their last triumph at this stage coming back in 2014, which was coincidentally a 4-2 conquest of the Thunder, serving as their penultimate triumph before capturing their last NBA Title. These clubs have met on six previous occasions in the postseason, with San Antonio taking four of them, while splitting their two encounters in the WCF (2012 and 2014). Furthermore, they are an even 5-5 SU in their last ten meetings (6-4 ATS), though as we covered earlier, they are 4-1 SU and ATS this season, splitting the two tilts in Oklahoma City. For those wondering, the Under is on a 6-game winning streak in all games played at Paycom Center. As for Wembanyama, he averaged 18.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.2 blocks on shooting splits of 52.4/62.5/63.6 despite logging just 25.1 minutes per game. Given their success against the Thunder during the regular season, the public is feeling awfully good about the Spurs in tonight’s opener, as approximately 64% of all wagers placed upon the spread are backing the visitors, while a smaller share of the overall money wagered on this front has followed suit (58%). On the injury front, Johnson has a pair of players dealing with issues: (All-Star Point Guard) De’Aaron Fox (ankle) and (Backup Center) Luke Kornet (foot) are both listed as questionable with respective maladies. The former has averaged 18.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.1 steals in the playoffs thus far, while the latter has been a serviceable reserve behind Wembanyama, with 5.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.0 assist, and 1.2 blocks during this postseason run. Furthermore, the 30-year-old is one of the few players on the roster who owns actual championship experience, serving as a member of the juggernaut 2023-24 Celtics.
Meanwhile, after securing their first Larry O’Brien Trophy since the franchise was reborn in Oklahoma City, the Thunder (64-18, 1st in Western Conference) ran roughshod through the regular season and have positioned themselves as the favorite to repeat as champions. At first, it appeared as if OKC would threaten the Warriors’ single-season wins record (73), winning all but one of their first TWENTY-FOUR games, before promptly returning to earth. Once again, this group has been statistically dominant; (Head Coach) Mark Daigneault’s troops ranked fifth in points scored (119.0) and second allowed (107.9), seventh in offensive rating (118.9) and first in both defensive rating (107.7) and net rating (+11.1), marking the second straight campaign in which they sat atop the Association in that latter category. At the forefront is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who became the fourteenth players in NBA history to win back-to-back MVP awards. The 27-year-old averaged 31.1 points on a career-best 55.3% shooting from the field and 38.6% from beyond the arc, with 4.3 rebounds, 6.6 assists, and 1.4 steals. Of course, the prevailing discourse surrounding Gilgeous-Alexander has long been his innate knack for drawing fouls and getting to the charity stripe. This is the fourth consecutive campaign in which he has led the league in free-throws made (540), accounting for 25.5% of his point total. Historically, all of the great scorers have been adept at getting to the line and SGA is certainly no different, though for all of those that have complained about foul-baiting, he did make 51 fewer free-throws this season, attempting 55 less to boot. With all that being said, these Thunder are far more than simply a one-man band, which is something that has become abundantly clear in these playoffs. Depth continues to be a key element to their success, with the likes of (All-Star Center) Chet Holmgren (18.6 points, 60.0% FG, 38.7% 3FG, 9.1 rebounds, 1.8 blocks), (Veteran Guard) Luguentz Dort (6.5 points, 37.5% 3FG, 2.4 rebounds), (Veteran Center) Isaiah Hartenstein (9.9 points, 75.6% FG, 8.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals), and (Backup Guard) Alex Caruso (7.6 points, 38.2% 3FG, 3.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals) have all been impactful on both ends of the hardwood, while (Sophomore Guard) Aijay Mitchell has flourished in a more expanded role. With (former All-Star Swingman) Jalen Williams (more on him in a bit) missing the last six games to injury, Mitchell raised his level, averaging 18.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 1.4 steals on shooting splits of 47.1/36.1/89.3 shooting splits. So, with all that in mind, how in the hell did this team lose FOUR of their five games against the Spurs? Think about that for a moment, folks: just over 22% of their losses this season have come at the hands of San Antonio! We covered earlier how they’ve been unable to create many extra possessions for themselves by forcing turnovers and crashing the offensive glass, but it is more than simply a lack of industry. In those five affairs, they were held to 109.2 points, which is 9.8 points below their season average, shooting just 44.8% from the field and 33.0% from three, while dishing out 23.6 assists along the way. Furthermore, and this is a credit to the Spurs defensive discipline (which is really beyond its years), they are -0.6 points from the charity stripe, which is well below the +2.8 edge that they’ve enjoyed overall this season. For enquiring minds, they were -10 (-2.5) on free-throws in those four losses.
From a betting perspective, the Thunder may own the best record in the Association, but they haven’t been rewarding against the spread (43-46), resulting in a net loss of 7.30 units. This is a team that is 12-10 ATS over their last twenty-two outings, covering five of their eight playoff games, all but a pair of which coming as double-digit favorites. Given their status as reigning champs, it is no surprise that Daigneault’s troops are no strangers to being sizable favorites, with the oddsmakers favoring them by 10+ points on a whopping FIFTY-THREE occasions (26-27 ATS), though that isn’t the case tonight. OKC is 9-1 SU but 6-4 ATS in their last ten games at Paycom Center, while matching each of those ledgers when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they have covered four consecutive contests when enjoying three or more days of rest and are on a 5-1 run ATS at home versus an adversary owning a winning road record, while equaling that mark over their last six tilts coming off a non-cover. However, they are in the midst of a 1-4 malaise ATS on Monday nights, for what that’s worth. Taking into account their time as the Sonics, this is a franchise that is making their thirty-fifth appearance in the playoffs, posting a 4-7 series record in the Western Conference Finals, including a 2-3 mark since moving to Oklahoma City. Of course, it was only last year that Daigneault & Co reached this stage, besting the Timberwolves in last May’s WCF in what was a gentleman’s sweep. As we covered earlier, the Thunder have taken one of the last three playoff encounters with the Spurs, with the most recent coming on this stage twelve years ago. Oklahoma City has generally been a good bet against San Antonio, owning a 24-10-1 ledger ATS over their past twenty-five affairs, though they were only able to earn a single victory in five clashes from this past regular season. It was of no fault of Gilgeous-Alexander’s, who remained prolific, averaging 29.5 points on 50.6% shooting, along with 4.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in four contests. On the injury front, the big news is the return of the aforementioned Williams, who missed the last six outings, including the entire series against the Lakers dealing with a strained hamstring. The 25-year-old was sidelined for FORTY-NINE games during the regular season due to complications with various injuries ranging from his knee to his hamstring, including a stretch of twenty-six out of twenty-eight games from late January to mid-March. For those wondering, his team went 19-7 during that part of their schedule and obviously swept the Lakers without him, though that shouldn’t diminish his value to the rotation. On the season, Williams experienced a bit of a down year, averaging 17.1 points on 48.4% shooting, including a career-low 29.9% from three, with 4.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.2 steals, and against the Spurs posted 16.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.5 steals on shooting splits of 43.5/36.4/66.7.