8:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Knicks -7.5, Total: 217.5
The Eastern Conference Finals kick off tonight in the Big Apple, as the Cleveland Cavaliers leap from one fire into another, this time against the well-rested New York Knicks, who have enjoyed over a week off waiting for their opponent to settle their business. Advancing to the ECF for their first time in eight years, the Cavaliers (52-30, 4th in Eastern Conference) have certainly gone about doing so the hard way, with each of their previous two series going the distance. Cleveland struggled through an uneven battle with Orlando in the first round, before finally finding a way to win on the road in the Eastern Semifinals versus Detroit, embarrassing the Pistons in a 125-94 blowout in Game Seven from the Motor City. This one was never close, folks, as the visitors shot a healthy 50.6% from the field, assisting on 31 of their 43 field goals, and continuing to plant their flag from the charity stripe. In their final three victories of the series, the Cavs were an industrious 89-of-116 on free-throws (76.7%), parlaying to a +40 advantage on that front, which averages out to a difference of 13.3 points per game. Getting to the line does a multitude of good for a team like (Head Coach) Kenny Atkinson’s, who are far better when they have the opportunity to set their defense up in the halfcourt. Given their struggles taking care of the ball throughout these playoffs, slowing the game down at the stripe effectively keeps them out of transition. Of course, when you have a backcourt consisting of Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, you can practically guarantee that you’ll be shooting free-throws; the two All-Stars combined for 88-of-105 shooting in that regard (83.8%), serving as the driving force for that sizable edge. Michell was nothing short of fantastic versus Detroit, averaging 28.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, while absolutely owning the big moments in the series, including a 43-point masterclass in Game Four, before going for 26 points in the finale. Then again, this is precisely where we expected the Cavaliers to be, right? Indeed, this is a team that was projected by many to dominate the East after both the Celtics and Pacers suffered losses to key players threatening to tank their respective campaigns, while Cleveland was coming off their second-most wins in franchise history (64) serving as the only stable contender in the conference. At least that was the story on paper, folks, and as we all know, these games aren’t played on paper. Atkinson was hired a year ago in large part to improve this team from an offensive perspective, which despite reaching that particular goal, wasn’t enough to push the Cavs to this penultimate stage of the postseason. Midway through the current campaign, it was clear that the attack required further reinforcements, so the franchise acquired Harden shortly before the Trade Deadline in an all-in gamble on the 36-year-old. Of course, anytime a team acquires the well-traveled 3-time scoring champion (which has been often over the past five years), they are sure to get a lot better offensively. However, the larger question was would acquiring the bearded one push them over the hump, particularly when you consider his checkered past in the playoffs, which has been littered with eggs? Again, he has been far from perfect during this run, especially from an efficiency POV, committing SIXTY-SEVEN turnovers through fourteen games, though the train of though is that he can bring enough playmaking from a supporting role alongside Mitchell to add another dimension to the attack. This will be imperative against the Knicks, whom they were 1-2 against during the regular season, though it should be noted that their lone victory was the only one that took place after Harden arrived from Los Angeles. In what was very much a defensive slog, the Cavs earned a 109-94 victory at home in which Mitchell and Harden combined for 43 points on a poor 13-of-36 shooting (36.1%), with the former supplementing that by netting 11-of-14 free-throws (78.6%). The hosts were 22-of-30 in that regard (73.3%), leading to a +8 advantage, while also knocking down 13-of-35 treys (37.1%) for a +9 edge. They also did a tremendous job of harassing New York into 17 turnovers, which they manufactured into 17 points off, resulting in a +7 differential.
From a betting perspective, the Cavaliers own the distinction of being the least-rewarding team left in this postseason field, logging a miserable 40-56 ledger against the spread, resulting in a harrowing loss of 20.0 units. That is a 20-game difference in comparison to their straight-up record, which is largely due to the wide public perception that they would run away with the East this season. Building upon that is the fact that they are just 16-24 over their past forty games dating back to the regular season. Atkinson’s troops began this postseason losing their first five games away from Northern Ohio (1-4 ATS), though have won and covered each of their last two road ventures, while logging a 6-4 ledger ATS as an underdog. However, they are in the midst of a dreadful 2-9 run ATS on the road against a foe owning a winning home record, including 2-5 ATS when that opponent’s home win percentage resides north of .600, while covering just SIX of their last twenty-seven road games overall. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their twenty-sixth appearance in the postseason, owning a 5-3 series record in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, there is some not-so-subtle context here, folks, for the vast majority of the Cavs’ success at this stage of the tournament is attributed to their time led by (4-time MVP) LeBron James. Indeed, with LeBron in a Cleveland uniform, they are 5-1 in the ECF, meaning that they are 0-2 in such series without the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. In fact, they haven’t even reached this penultimate round without him since 1992 when they eliminated by Michal Jordan’s Bulls (4-2). As for this matchup with the Knicks, they have NEVER beaten New York in the playoffs (0-4), with the most recent coming three years ago in the first round, which ended in a gentleman’s sweep. With that being said, the Cavs are 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS over their past ten encounters with the Knickerbockers, splitting their last ten ATS at MSG, while the Under is on a 7-2 run in the Big Apple. Getting back to Mitchell, he showed out against them during the regular season, averaging 29.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 3.0 steals despite struggling from the field (42.6%) and three (30.8%). As for Harden, the bearded one has crossed paths with New York twice this season, logging 21.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists on shooting splits of 40.0/57.1/100.0. The veteran is returning to the Conference Finals for the first time since 2018, when his Rockets choked away a 3-2 lead against the Warriors. Interestingly, the public backing Cleveland on the road, as approximately 56% of all wagers placed upon the spread are taking the points, though the overall money wagered thus far is telling a different story with a 47% share following suit. On the injury front, Atkinson & Co are likely to be without (Backup Forward) Larry Nance Jr, who has been dealing with an illness and is thus listed as questionable for tonight’s series opener, though it should be noted that the 33-year-old hasn’t featured since April 23rd against Toronto.
Meanwhile, the Knicks (53-29, 3rd in Eastern Conference) are absolutely peaking at the right time, winning each of their last seven playoff games by a staggering 195 points. As was the case with their opponent in this series, New York was penciled in to represent the conference in the NBA Finals, filling the void leftover by the collective absence of Boston and Indiana, who were ravaged by significant injuries to star players and several offseason departures. However, this team made changes of their own, most notably the hire of (Head Coach) Mike Brown to finally get them over the hump. The 56-year-old was brought in to bring some new ideas to the room, extending what had been one of the shortest rotations in the Association all in an attempt to ensure a fresher group come playoff time. After all, this is team that had just advanced to their first Eastern Conference Final since 2000, so in theory they didn’t necessarily need wholesale changes to progress, particularly with two of their chief rivals expected to be stuck in a gap year. However, the transition was far from seamless. Meandering a bit at 25-18 in mid-January, it was looking as if this wouldn’t be the smoothest of marriages, though credit to Brown for not forcing his ideals down his roster’s throats and adjusting to what had worked for them in the past, particularly on the defensive end. From January 21st onwards, the Knicks finished the regular season on a 28-11 tear, outscoring their opposition by an even 10.0 points per game, shooting an efficient 48.9% from the field, outrebounding them by an industrious 6.2 boards, and forcing close to 15.0 turnovers (14.9). Both (clutch Point Guard) Jalen Brunson and (sharpshooting Center) Karl-Anthony Towns were selected as All-Stars, with the former logging 26.0 points on 46.7% shooting from the field and 36.9% from three, along with 3.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists, while the latter added 20.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists on shooting splits of 50.1/36.8/85.8. And as far as utilizing the bench more, Brown has done a good job of doing just that; his predecessor had every member of their starting five averaging at least 35.0 minutes per game, though in this season, only one member of that quintet (Brunson, 35.0) has hit that threshold. Ironically, this postseason has played out in a similar manner, as New York fell behind 2-1 in their first-round affair with the Hawks, only to slam their collective foot on the gas and go on a 7-0 tear; the offense has been downright stunning during this streak, with the Knickerbockers averaging 125.3 points on a blistering 54.8% shooting from the field, including 43.2% from beyond the arc, while knocking down 21.0 free-throws, dishing out 28.3 assists, and committing just 12.9 turnovers. While Brunson continues to be productive, the most notable change has been the utilization of Towns, who has become the fulcrum of the attack. Credit to Brown for turning the sharpshooting 7-footer into something of a point-center, facilitating the offense from the top of the key, showcasing playmaking skills that were otherwise untapped. In these playoffs, KAT has averaged 17.4 points on 58.7% shooting, including 48.3% from downtown, along with 10.0 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 blocks, all the while posting the highest marks of this postseason in PER (30.4), Offensive Win Shares (1.6), Win Shares/48 minutes (.393), and Box Plus/Minus (14.4).
From a betting perspective, the Knicks come into tonight’s sequel at 51-42 against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 3.90 units. This is a team that has been rather streaky throughout the campaign, compiling SIX different streaks of four or more consecutive covers, while also suffering SEVEN different stretches consisting of at least three straight losses ATS. As such, they have been on a quite a run of late, with SIX covers in their last seven playoff games, including that one-sided finale in Philadelphia (-1.5). New York is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last ten tilts at Madison Square Garden, while matching those marks when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Brown’s troops are in the midst of a 6-1 march ATS immediately after scoring 100+ points, while doing the same when facing an adversary owning a win percentage north of .500, with both trends proving relevant tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-seventh appearance in the playoffs, posting an 8-9 series record in the Eastern Conference Finals, with their most recent appearance coming in last May’s defeat at the hands of Indiana. As we covered earlier, the Knickerbockers have crossed paths with the Cavaliers on four prior occasions, winning each of them, including a 4-1 triumph in the first round of the 2023 Playoffs. As for more recent history, New York won two of their three meetings from the regular season, though their two victories were close affairs that were decided by a combined 10 points. Hell, if you bring that aforementioned loss in Northern Ohio to the table, and Brown & Co were actually outscored over the season series. On the whole, they struggled defensively in shipping 47.1% shooting from the field and 40.9% from three, though made up for it by earning a small advantage from the charity stripe (+3.0), while owning the glass along the way (+4.3). Furthermore, the Knicks are just 3-7 ATS over their last ten affairs with Cleveland, including 1-6 ATS over the past seven contests, with a 1-4 ledger ATS in the Big Apple. On the injury front, keep an eye on the status of (Veteran Swingman) O.G. Anunoby, who missed the last two games of the previous series with an ailing hamstring. The versatile Forward has been on quite a heater of late, averaging 22.0 points on 65.1% shooting, including 13-of-24 from deep (54.2%), with 7.0 boards and 2.2 steals over his past five games, with his ability to lock down opposing guards figuring to be an invaluable asset in this series. Versus the Cavs this season, he averaged 12.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 block in three contests.