8:30 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Thunder -7.5, Total: 217.5
After an EPIC opener to kick off the Western Conference Finals, the San Antonio Spurs look to take a commanding 2-0 series lead with them back home, while the (reigning NBA Champion) Oklahoma City Thunder have designs on bouncing back from their first defeat of the playoffs. Don’t look now, folks, but the Spurs (62-20, 2nd in Western Conference) have now advanced to their first Western Final since 2017. This is a franchise that has returned to the playoffs after a 6-year drought, which should serve as a warning for the rest of the Association; from the 1997-98 campaign to 2018-19, this is a franchise that NEVER missed the postseason, advancing to SIX NBA Finals and hoisting FIVE Larry O’Brien trophies, though the years that have since past have been rather lean as San Antonio embarked on a state of transition. However, just as it did back in 1997, their fortunes changed when they landed the number one overall pick in the NBA Draft, selecting the towering Victor Wembanyama, altering the team’s future in an instant. Indeed, the NBA hasn’t seen such a unique talent in ages, as the lithe, 7′-4″ Center is just as capable of draining a three-point dagger off the dribble as he is of punishing an undersized defender in the paint, all the while serving as a virtual one-man safety net on the defensive end of the hardwood. Now in his third season, the Spurs have done a tremendous job of putting the requisite pieces around the 22-year-old to become a legitimate contender; (longtime General Manager) RC Buford has long been one of the very best in the business, while (Head Coach) Mitch Johnson has continued to develop the young talent at his disposal, with the likes of (Sophomore Guard) Stephon Castle, (Rookie Guard) Dylan Harper, and (Veteran Guard) Devin Vassell each exhibiting rapid growth around the big fella. As for Wembanyama himself (pictured below), he became the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year in NBA history, while averaging 25.0 points on 51.2% shooting from the field, along with 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steal, and an NBA-best 3.1 blocks. Furthermore, he has posted a PER (Player Efficiency Rating) of 29.9, with an on-court +/- of 16.4 points. Unsurprisingly, San Antonio has emerged as a defensive juggernaut with the Frenchman patrolling the paint, ranking eighth overall in points allowed (111.5), third in defensive efficiency (111.3), first in defensive rebounding percentage (77.3%), and first in free-throws/field goals attempted ratio (.180). Furthermore, they managed to beat the Thunder not once, not twice, not thrice, but FOUR times during the regular season. In those matchups, the Spurs averaged 114.4 points on an efficient 47.1% shooting, including 36.0% from three, while owning the glass (+3.2), particularly on the offensive end (+2.4), and dishing out 24.4 assists opposed to committing 13.4 turnovers. Their mastery of the defending champs continued in Monday night’s thrilling 122-115 double-overtime victory, in which Wembanyama was otherworldly; the French international erupted for 41 points, 14 of which came in the two OTs, on 14-of-25 shooting (56.0%), 24 rebounds, including 9 of the offensive variety, 3 assists, a steal, and a block, while netting 12-of-13 free-throws (92.3%) and drilling a clutch 30-foot dagger in OT to stave off Oklahoma’s final push. The visitors led by as many as 10 points in this one, enjoying a +11 edge at the charity stripe and a +14 advantage in the paint. As dominant as he was, he did receive plenty of help, with five other players scoring in double-figures, the most notable of which was Harper, who continued to perform well beyond his years. The Rutgers product totaled 24 points on 8-of-20 shooting (40.0%), with 11 rebounds, 6 assists, and 7 steals, which further disrupted what OKC wanted to do on the offensive end of the hardwood.
From a betting perspective, the Spurs have been very rewarding against the spread this season (55-38-1), leading to a net profit of 11.50 units. This is a team that has been remarkably consistent for over three months now, for they are a stellar 30-15 ATS since February 1st, covering thirteen of their last eighteen outings dating back to the regular season, including eleven of sixteen in these playoffs. San Antonio has won eight of their last ten games away from Frost Bank Center (7-3 ATS), while posting a 7-3 ledger ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Johnson’s troops are on an 8-1 run ATS immediately after shipping 100+ points, while finding themselves in the midst of a 5-1 run ATS when playing on only a single day of rest. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, with this series marking their grand return following a 6-year hiatus. The Spurs are 6-8 in the Conference Finals, with their last triumph at this stage coming back in 2014, which was coincidentally a 4-2 conquest of the Thunder, serving as their penultimate triumph before capturing their last NBA Title. These clubs have met on six previous occasions in the postseason, with San Antonio taking four of them, while splitting their two encounters in the WCF (2012 and 2014). Furthermore, they are a 6-4 SU in their last ten meetings (7-3 ATS), including 5-1 SU and ATS this season, taking two of three in Oklahoma City. For those wondering, a streak of six consecutive unders between these sides at Paycom Center was finally snapped on Monday night, though it should be noted that it took a pair of overtimes in order to do so. As for Wembanyama, he averaged 18.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.2 blocks on shooting splits of 52.4/62.5/63.6 despite logging just 25.1 minutes per game. Given their success against the Thunder during the regular season, the public is feeling awfully good about the Spurs in tonight’s opener, as approximately 69% of all wagers placed upon the spread are backing the visitors, though the overall money wagered thus far has been split far more evenly (49%). On the injury front, keep an eye on the status of (All-Star Point guard) De’Aaron Fox, who missed the opener with a sore ankle, with the 28-year-old has averaged 18.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.1 steals in the playoffs thus far. Looking ahead, the Spurs are a commanding 31-6 in all best-of-seven series after drawing first blood, going on to win Game Two on 26 occasions (70.2%).
Meanwhile, after sweeping through the first two rounds of the playoffs with ease, the Thunder (64-18, 1st in Western Conference) now find themselves with their backs to the wall facing their first true threat to repeating as champions. Indeed, Oklahoma City lost FOUR of their five meetings with San Antonio in the regular season and have added yet another loss to that ledger following Game One’s 122-115 epic. Think about that for a moment, folks: just over 26% of their losses have come at the hands of the Spurs, while no other team in the Association managed to best them more than twice! So, what in the name of Scott Brooks has happened to OKC, you ask? Well, (Head Coach) Mark Daigneault’s troops thrive off both efficiency and industry, with one feeding off the other, but they have been denied of both in this matchup. In those five prior affairs, they were held to 109.2 points, which is 9.8 points below their season average, shooting just 44.8% from the field and 33.0% from three, while dishing out 23.6 assists along the way. They were also -3.2 on the glass, including -2.4 on the offensive end, while forcing just 13.4 turnovers, which is also well below their season average (16.7). More so than any team in the NBA, the Thunder absolutely THRIVE off of the extra possessions that they create for themselves via turnovers and offensive boards, with the former kickstarting their transition attack, which can be downright devastating. In the four previous defeats to San Antonio, they were just +4 in turnovers and -5 in points from, which in turn kept them at bay in transition where they were -15 on fast break points. A big reason for this has been the Spurs’ ability to slow the game down at the charity stripe, building a +10 advantage in free-throws, which brings us to the events of Monday’s opener. Perhaps it was the lengthy layoff between series, but the Thunder were stumbling over their own feet throughout the first half of this one, folks, shooting 36.4% from the field, including 6-of-22 from three (27.3%), eventually falling behind by as many as 10 points. They would eventually find their shooting touch post intermission, netting a far more palatable 52.6% from the field and 8-of-13 from downtown (61.5%), thanks in large part to a whirlwind performance from (Backup Guard) Alex Caruso, who erupted for 31 points off the bench, drilling 8-of-14 treys along the way (57.1%). However, even after drawing level and forcing the affair into multiple overtimes, the hosts were unable to deal with the aforementioned Wembanyama, which has been the case throughout the campaign. This was reflected in the paint, where they were outscored 52-38, while the visitors’ physicality continued to give them an edge at the charity stripe where they were +11 in free-throws made and +10 in attempts. OKC managed to get back into the affair from beyond the arc (+12), while finally getting after their adversary in terms of turnovers (+8) and points from (+11), leading to a 16-7 advantage in transition, but they were utterly helpless in shipping 15 offensive rebounds, many of which led directly to easy second-chance points. (2-time reigning MVP) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who was awarded that honor shortly before tipoff, was held largely in check with 24 points on a poor 7-of-23 shooting (30.4%), along with 3 rebounds, 12 assists, 5 steals, and 4 turnovers. With that being said, the bigger issue was that of (All-Star Center) Chet Holmgren, who was rendered ineffective opposite of Wembanyama. The runner-up to the Frenchman’s DPOY honors, Holmgren could muster just 8 points on 2-of-7 attempts (28.6%) and 8 rebounds.
From a betting perspective, the Thunder may own the best record in the Association, but they haven’t been rewarding against the spread (43-47), resulting in a net loss of 8.30 units. This is a team that is a mediocre 12-11 ATS over their last twenty-three outings, covering five of their nine playoff games, all but a pair of which have come as double-digit favorites. Given their status as reigning champs, it is no surprise that Daigneault’s troops are no strangers to being sizable favorites, with the oddsmakers favoring them by 10+ points on a whopping FIFTY-THREE occasions (26-27 ATS), though that isn’t the case tonight and likely won’t be at any point in this series. OKC is 8-2 SU but 6-4 ATS in their last ten games at Paycom Center, while splitting their past ten tilts ATS when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they are on a 5-2 run ATS at home versus an adversary owning a winning road record, while equaling that mark when versus such opponents with a road ledger above .600. Taking into account their time as the Supersonics, this is a franchise that is making their thirty-fifth appearance in the playoffs, posting a 4-7 series record in the Western Conference Finals, including a 2-3 mark since moving to Oklahoma City. Of course, it was only last year that Daigneault & Co reached this stage, besting the Timberwolves in last May’s WCF in what was a gentleman’s sweep. As we covered earlier, the Thunder have taken one of the last three playoff encounters with the Spurs, with the most recent coming on this stage twelve years ago. Oklahoma City has generally been a good bet against San Antonio, owning a 24-11-1 portfolio ATS over their past twenty-six affairs, though they have only able to earn a single victory in six clashes dating back to the regular season. It was of no fault of Gilgeous-Alexander’s, who remained prolific, averaging 29.5 points on 50.6% shooting, along with 4.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in four contests during the campaign. On the injury front, Daigneault & Co received a boost with the return of (former All-Star Swingman) Jalen Williams, who missed six games prior to Monday’s opener, including the entire series against the Lakers dealing with a strained hamstring. The 25-year-old was sidelined for FORTY-NINE games during the regular season due to complications with various injuries ranging from his knee to his hamstring, including a stretch of twenty-six out of twenty-eight games from late January to mid-March. Apart from that, this is a largely healthy team with significant absences to report. Looking ahead, the Thunder are 6-15 in all best-of-seven series after meeting defeat in Game One, going on to draw level on 11 occasions (52.3%).