8:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Knicks -5.5, Total: 215.5
After kicking off the Eastern Conference Finals with an overtime epic of their own, the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks are set to author an encore from the world’s most famous arena in tonight’s Game Two from Madison Square Garden. For roughly three quarters of Tuesday’s opener, it felt as if the Cavaliers (52-30, 4th in Eastern Conference) had firmly solved their road woes in potentially winning a third consecutive contest away from Northern Ohio. Indeed, Cleveland dropped their first five road games of the playoffs, only to finally reverse course by winning the last two games of their previous series versus the Pistons in the Motor City, including a watershed 124-95 blowout in Game Seven. (Head Coach) Kenny Atkinson’s troops opted to remain on the road following that finale, flying straight to the Big Apple for what was a quick turnaround against an adversary that had been lying in wait for roughly a week. The visitors would ride that momentum to an 83-69 lead through three quarters of action, built largely upon a 67-46 stretch between the second and third periods. Between those frames, they shot 54.5% from the field, including 10-of-23 from downtown (43.4%) where they owned a 21-point edge on that front, while (All-Star Guard) Donovan Mitchell scored 19 of his 29 points. However, what would follow very well may be talked about in The Land for years to come, and not in a positive light, as the Cavs would proceed to choke away Game One in inexplicable fashion. Between the fourth quarter and overtime, they were outscored 46-21, shooting a miserable 25.0% from the field and 4-of-15 from three (36.6%), committing more turnovers (6) than assists (4). In fact, they managed to score just 3 points in OT, as the pairing of Mitchell and (All-Star Guard) James Harden was rendered scoreless in the extra stanza. Needless to say, this is NOT what the organization envisioned with they opted to team Mitchell and Harden (pictured below) together after mortgaging their future to acquire the latter at the Trade Deadline. While both players have proven to be dynamic offensive weapons throughout the course of their respective careers, each has found themselves starring in their own horror shows in the playoffs. For Mitchell, Tuesday’s collapse marked the fourth time in his postseason career that his team has blown a 20-point lead, while Harden has been running on fumes for weeks now, struggling to take care of the basketball with a whopping SEVENTY-THREE turnovers committed in these playoffs (15 games). In the Cavaliers’ seven losses, the bearded one has averaged 17.5 points and 5.4 assists on dismal shooting splits of .367/.234/.869, along with an untenable 6.2 turnovers. To put that into proper perspective, that equates to more turnovers (44) than field goals (36) in these defeats. Now 36-years-old, the 3-time scoring champion simply lacks the burst that he possessed earlier in his career, while his liabilities on the defensive end of the hardwood continued to play a sizable role in his persistent playoff woes. Knicks Head Coach, Mike Brown, stated it plainly in Tuesday night’s post-game press conference, openly admitting that much of the gameplan consisted of hunting Harden and forcing him to defend on the ball. Granted, none of the teams (there have been many) that have acquired him over the past five years have done so with his defensive qualities in mind, though the train of thought was that Cleveland possessed the requisite size and length behind him to cover for said weaknesses. That just wasn’t case in this one, folks, as the Cavs were outscored 60-38 in the paint, were outrebounded 47-38, and were -5 from the charity stripe where they allowed New York to attempt nine more free-throws. And then there was the matter of the turnovers, for it wasn’t just Harden coughing up the rock; the visiting side committed TWENTY-ONE turnovers on the night, shipping TWENTY-EIGHT points to the hosts. Was this a case of simply running out of gas down the stretch or a sign of larger issues to come? Stay tuned, ladies and gentlemen…
From a betting perspective, the Cavaliers own the distinction of being the least-rewarding team left in this postseason field, logging a miserable 40-57 ledger against the spread, resulting in a harrowing loss of 21.0 units. That is a 20-game difference in comparison to their straight-up record, which is largely due to the wide public perception that they would run away with the East this season. Building upon that is the fact that they are just 16-25 over their past forty-one games dating back to the regular season. Atkinson’s troops began this postseason losing their first five games away from Northern Ohio (1-4 ATS), though saw their streak of two successive wins on both fronts come to a close in Tuesday’s opener, while logging a 5-5 ledger ATS as an underdog. However, they are in the midst of a dreadful 2-10 run ATS on the road against a foe owning a winning home record, including 2-6 ATS when that opponent’s home win percentage resides north of .600, while covering just SIX of their last twenty-eight road games overall. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their twenty-sixth appearance in the postseason, owning a 5-3 series record in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, there is some not-so-subtle context here, folks, for the vast majority of the Cavs’ success at this stage of the tournament is attributed to their time led by (4-time MVP) LeBron James. Indeed, with LeBron in a Cleveland uniform, they are 5-1 in the ECF, meaning that they are 0-2 in such series without the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. In fact, they haven’t even reached this penultimate round without him since 1992 when they were eliminated by Michal Jordan’s Bulls (4-2). As for this matchup with the Knicks, they have NEVER beaten New York in the playoffs (0-4), with the most recent coming three years ago in the first round, which ended in a gentleman’s sweep. With that being said, the Cavs are 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS over their past ten encounters with the Knickerbockers, posting a 4-6 ledger ATS at MSG, while the Under is on a 7-3 run in the Big Apple. Getting back to Mitchell, the New York native showed out against them during the regular season, averaging 29.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 3.0 steals despite struggling from the field (42.6%) and three (30.8%). As for Harden, the bearded one faced New York twice this season, logging 21.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists on shooting splits of .400/.571/1.000. Interestingly, the public is still backing Cleveland on the road, even after Monday’s collapse, as approximately 52% of all wagers placed upon the spread are taking the points, though the overall money wagered thus far is telling a different story with a 45% share following suit. On the injury front, Atkinson & Co are likely to be without (Backup Forward) Larry Nance Jr, who has been dealing with an illness and is thus listed as questionable for tonight’s sequel, though it should be noted that the 33-year-old hasn’t featured since April 23rd against Toronto. Looking ahead, The Cavaliers are 7-13 in all best-of-seven series in which they met defeat in the opener, going on to draw level on eight occasions (40.0%).
Meanwhile, on the flipside of Tuesday night’s epic opener to this Eastern Conference Final are the Knicks (53-29, 3rd in Eastern Conference), who for three quarters looked very much like a team that had grown lethargic after enjoying a week of rest. After sweeping the 76ers on May 10th, New York had plenty of time to rest and prepare for whomever they were to face in this penultimate round of the playoffs, patiently waiting as their potential opponent went the distance. However, as we saw in the opener in the Western Conference Finals, such rest isn’t always a good thing, as the reigning NBA Champions struggled to recapture their momentum after enjoying a similar respite. As such, these Knickerbockers seemed destined to follow in those same footsteps, falling behind 93-71 early in the fourth quarter. Indeed, through three frames of play, the hosts shot 43.3% from the field, including 4-of-23 from beyond the arc (17.3%), with nearly as many turnovers (12) as assists (14). However, what followed would be historic for the denizens of the Big Apple, as the Knicks outscored the Cavaliers 44-11 the rest of the way for what became the largest fourth quarter comeback in the franchise’s playoff history. Between the fourth quarter and overtime, New York shot 57.1% overall and 6-of-9 from three (66.6%), while (All-NBA Guard) Jalen Brunson scored 16 of his game-high 38 points. On the whole, the home side was +12 in the paint, +8 in points off turnovers, +5 on free-throws and +9 on the glass, which were all categories that helped aid them in their historic comeback. When it was all said and done, Brunson led the way with 38 points on 15-of-29 shooting (51.7%) and 7-of-10 from the charity stripe (70.0%), along with 5 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals. However, he was far from alone in this one, folks, as his collegiate teammate from Villanova, Mikal Bridges added 18 points on 7-of-11 shooting (63.6%), with 5 boards of his own and a pair of steals. As for (All-Star Center) Karl-Anthony Towns, it was certainly an uneven game as he logged a double-double (13 points, 11 rebounds) despite not attempting a single free-throw and committing 7 of his side’s 19 turnovers. The aforementioned Brown’s usage of Towns has been a major reason that the Knicks have won eight consecutive contests, turning the sharpshooting 7-footer into something of a point-center, facilitating the offense from the top of the key and showcasing playmaking skills that were otherwise untapped. In these playoffs, KAT has averaged 17.0 points on 56.6% shooting, including 44.1% from downtown, along with 10.3 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 blocks, all the while posting the highest marks of any player in this postseason in Win Shares (2.3), Win Shares/48 minutes (.343), and Box Plus/Minus (12.4). During this 8-game winning streak, New York’s attack has really been on a tear, averaging a robust 124.0 points on 53.8% shooting, including 41.7% from three and 61.6% from within the arc, with 27.4 assists in comparison to committing 13.6 turnovers en route to pummeling their opponents by a comfortable margin of 196 points.
From a betting perspective, the Knicks come into tonight’s sequel at 52-42 against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 4.80 units. This is a team that has been rather streaky throughout the campaign, compiling SIX different streaks of four or more consecutive covers, while also suffering SEVEN different stretches consisting of at least three straight losses ATS. As such, they have been on a quite a run of late, with SEVEN covers in their last eight playoff games, including Monday’s epic rally at MSG (-6.5). New York is 8-2 both SU and ATS in their last ten tilts at the Garden, while logging a 7-3-mark ATS when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Brown’s troops are in the midst of a 7-1 march ATS immediately after scoring 100+ points, while doing the same when facing an adversary owning a win percentage north of .500, with both trends proving relevant tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-seventh appearance in the playoffs, posting an 8-9 series record in the Eastern Conference Finals, with their most recent appearance coming in last May’s defeat at the hands of Indiana. As we covered earlier, the Knickerbockers have crossed paths with the Cavaliers on four prior occasions, winning each of them, including a 4-1 triumph in the first round of the 2023 Playoffs. As for more recent history, New York won two of their three meetings from the regular season, though their two victories were close affairs that were decided by a combined 10 points. Hell, if you bring that aforementioned loss in Northern Ohio to the table, and Brown & Co were actually outscored over the season series. On the whole, they struggled defensively in shipping 47.1% shooting from the field and 40.9% from three, though made up for it by earning a small advantage from the charity stripe (+3.0), while owning the glass along the way (+4.3). Furthermore, the Knicks are just 3-7 ATS over their last ten affairs with Cleveland, including 2-6 ATS over the past seven contests, with a 2-4 ledger ATS in the Big Apple. On the injury front, Brown has a largely healthy rotation at his disposal, as (Versatile Forward) O.G. Anunoby returned from an ailing hamstring that he tweaked during the previous series against Philadelphia. Anunoby was fundamental to that comeback victory, scoring 9 of his 13 points in OT. Looking ahead, the Knicks are 20-7 in all best-of-seven series after drawing first blood, going on to win Game Two on sixteen occasions (59.5%).