8:30 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Spurs -1.5, Total: 217.5
After a thrilling two games in Oklahoma City, the scene now shifts to San Antonio where the (reigning NBA Champion) Thunder and Spurs are set to break the deadlock in tonight’s Game Three of the Western Conference Finals from Frost Bank Center. After suffering their first defeat of the postseason, the Thunder (64-18, 1st in Western Conference) reminded everyone why they are the defending champs, striking back to draw level in this WCF via a 122-113 victory. Coming into this titanic matchup, which is the first between two teams that won at least 62 games since the 1998 NBA Finals, the prevailing narrative was how Oklahoma City simply hadn’t been able to solve the conundrum that is San Antonio, who bested them in four of five regular season encounters. That narrative only grew in mass following the events of Monday night’s epic opener, a 122-115 affair that required two overtimes to decide a victor. So, how is it that a team that hasn’t allowed any other to beat them more than twice this season end up losing FIVE times to the same group? Well, to break it down in simple terms, OKC really hasn’t been able to do what they want to do on either end of the hardwood. (Head Coach) Mark Daigneault’s troops thrive off both industry and efficiency, while largely being denied of both against the Spurs. In the regular season, they were held 9.8 points below their season scoring average, while shooting a mediocre 44.8% from the field and 33.0% from three, while also getting outrebounded (-3.2) on the glass and forcing just 13.4 turnovers, which is also well below their season ledger (16.7). In those five losses (including Game One), they were only +8 in turnovers and +6 in points from, while falling behind in fast break points (-6). Furthermore, in Monday’s opener they were -11 from the charity stripe, while shipping FIFTEEN offensive rebounds, which led to a slew of high-percentage, second-chance shots for the visitors. So, how did they manage to turn it around in Game Two, you ask? First, the Thunder did a much better job of defending the paint, particularly in terms of employing a more physical approach when defending (All-NBA Center) Victory Wembanyama (much more on him in a bit). After being outscored by 14 points in this particular area of the hardwood on Monday, it was a far more even showing this time around (-4), while the offensive rebounding differential was far more palatable as well (+1). With that being said, the outcome of this game came back to turnovers and the carnage that Oklahoma City wrought from them. In Game One, they pressured San Antonio’s young backcourt to the tune of 23 turnovers and 28 points from (+11), while those figures clocked in at 21 and 27 (+17) in Game Two. The hosts also took much better care of the rock themselves (10 turnovers), which allowed them to dictate more of their tempo onto the affair. (2-time reigning MVP) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who was held in check on Monday, responded with 30 points on an efficient 12-of-24 shooting (50.0%), 4 rebounds, 9 assists, and a pair of blocks, while (Defensive Player of the Year Runner-Up) Chet Holmgren did the same with 13 points on similar shooting from the field (5-of-10). However, the decisive factor proved to be Daigneault’s bench, which outscored that of their opponent 57-25, with four different players scoring 10+ points, marking the first time in 50 years that a team’s bench had done so. (Veteran Guard) Alex Caruso, who erupted for 31 points in Game One, logged 17 points on 5-of-7 shooting (71.4%) and 3-of-4 from downtown (75.0%), along with 3 rebounds, 5 assists, and a steal. It is well-known that reserves generally play better at home, and given the injury situation for OKC (more on that shortly), this unit will be counted upon to keep up the good work.
From a betting perspective, the Thunder may own the best record in the Association, but they haven’t been rewarding against the spread (44-47), resulting in a net loss of 7.40 units. This is a team that is a mediocre 13-11 ATS over their last twenty-four outings, covering six of their ten playoff games, all but a pair of which have come as double-digit favorites. Given their status as reigning champs, it is no surprise that Daigneault’s troops are no strangers to being sizable favorites, with the oddsmakers favoring them by 10+ points on a whopping FIFTY-THREE occasions (26-27 ATS), though that isn’t the case tonight and likely won’t be at any point in this series. OKC is 8-2 SU but 5-5 ATS in their last ten games away from Paycom Center, while losing three of their past ten tilts as an underdog and covering only four of them along the way. Furthermore, they are on a 6-1 run ATS versus an adversary owning a winning percentage above .600, though have covered only one of their last six games played on Friday night. Taking into account their time as the Supersonics, this is a franchise that is making their thirty-fifth appearance in the playoffs, posting a 4-7 series record in the Western Conference Finals, including a 2-3 mark since moving to Oklahoma City. Of course, it was only last year that Daigneault & Co reached this stage, besting the Timberwolves in last May’s WCF in what was a gentleman’s sweep. The Thunder have taken just one of the last three playoff encounters with the Spurs, with the most recent coming on this stage twelve years ago, which ended in six games. Oklahoma City has generally been a good bet against San Antonio, owning a 25-11-1 portfolio ATS over their past twenty-seven affairs, though they have only able to earn two victories in seven clashes dating back to the regular season. It was of no fault of Gilgeous-Alexander’s, who remained prolific, averaging 29.5 points on 50.6% shooting, along with 4.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in four contests during the campaign. On the injury front, Daigneault & Co will in all likelihood be without (former All-Star Swingman) Jalen Williams once again, who missed six straight games prior to Monday’s opener, including the entire series against the Lakers dealing with a strained hamstring. The 25-year-old was sidelined for FORTY-NINE games during the regular season due to complications with various injuries ranging from his knee to his hamstring, including a stretch of twenty-six out of twenty-eight games from late January to mid-March. Also, keep an eye on the status of the aforementioned Mitchell, who also appeared to have suffered a lower-body malady late in Tuesday’s sequel. After scoring just 4 points in the opener, the Belgian scored 10 points in Game Two and would figure to see plenty more action moving forward if Williams to be sidelined for a lengthy period. Looking ahead, the Thunder are 12-14 in all best-of-seven series after splitting the first two games, going on to win Game Three on seven occasions (26.9%).
Meanwhile, with two games now in the books of this highly anticipated series, it is becoming clear that success for the Spurs (62-20, 2nd in Western Conference) will hinge even more on the play of (Defensive Player of the Year) Victory Wembanyama. Indeed, the NBA hasn’t seen such a unique talent in ages, as the lithe, 7′-4″ Center is just as capable of draining a three-point dagger off the dribble as he is of punishing an undersized defender in the paint, all the while serving as a virtual one-man safety net on the defensive end of the hardwood. Now in his third season, the Spurs have done a tremendous job of putting the requisite pieces around the 22-year-old to become a legitimate contender; (longtime General Manager) RC Buford has long been one of the very best in the business, while (Head Coach) Mitch Johnson has continued to develop the young talent at his disposal, with the likes of (Sophomore Guard) Stephon Castle, (Rookie Guard) Dylan Harper, and (Veteran Guard) Devin Vassell each exhibiting rapid growth around the big fella. As for Wembanyama himself (pictured below), he became the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year in NBA history, while averaging 25.0 points on 51.2% shooting from the field, along with 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steal, and an NBA-best 3.1 blocks. Furthermore, he has posted a PER (Player Efficiency Rating) of 29.9, with an on-court +/- of 16.4 points. Unsurprisingly, San Antonio has emerged as a defensive juggernaut with the Frenchman patrolling the paint, ranking eighth overall in points allowed (111.5), third in defensive efficiency (111.3), first in defensive rebounding percentage (77.3%), and first in free-throws/field goals attempted ratio (.180). Finishing third place in MVP voting, the most telling figure to how important he is to San Antonio’s success is that fact that they are now 38-4 over the last 42 games that he has played in. Monday night’s opener served as an eye-opening declaration for the towering Frenchman, who dominated the defending champs with 41 points, 14 of which came in the two OTs, on 14-of-25 shooting (56.0%), 24 rebounds, including 9 of the offensive variety, 3 assists, a steal, and a block, while netting 12-of-13 free-throws (92.3%). Simply put, it was nothing short of a joy to witness, as OKC was helpless to combat his influence on the affair. However, adjustments were bound to come in Game Two, which was the case in the Wednesday night’s 122-113 defeat. With the Thunder employing a far more physical (or as some would claim, illegal) approach to defending him, Wembanyama finished with 21 points, 17 rebounds, 6 assists, and 4 blocks on shooting splits of .500/.429/1.000, though was more subdued on the offensive glass (5) and less-industrious from the charity stripe (2-of-2 FT). He was also responsible for 4 turnovers, which is really where the Spurs lost this one, folks, committing 21 as a team with 27 points to their adversary for a -17 deficit. Castle, who led the team with 25 points, continued to struggle in this regard too, coughing up the rock NINE times in Game Two, bringing his total in this series to a nauseating TWENTY turnovers. There are some absences in San Antonio’s backcourt (more on that in a bit), which leaves them susceptible to Oklahoma City’s pressure that we covered earlier. With his supporting cast getting thinner by the game, it is going to come down to Wembanyama to be more of the monster that he was in the opener than simply the star he was on Wednesday night. Is he capable of doing so? Yes, we believe he is. Is it reasonable to expect that against the reigning champs? No, it probably isn’t, but we will be happy to watch this all play out…
From a betting perspective, the Spurs have certainly been the more rewarding side against the spread this season (55-39-1), leading to a net profit of 10.50 units. This is a team that has been remarkably consistent for over three months now, for they are a stellar 30-16 ATS since February 1st, covering thirteen of their last nineteen outings dating back to the regular season, including eleven of seventeen in these playoffs. San Antonio has won and covered seven of their last ten games at Frost Bank Center, while each of those ledgers when favored by the oddsmakers. Johnson’s troops are on an 8-2 run ATS immediately after shipping 100+ points, while finding themselves in the midst of a 5-2 run ATS when playing on only a single day of rest. Furthermore, they have covered four consecutive contests played on Friday night. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-eighth appearance in the playoffs, with this series marking their grand return following a 6-year hiatus. The Spurs are 6-8 in the Conference Finals, with their last triumph at this stage coming back in 2014, which was coincidentally a 4-2 conquest of the Thunder, serving as their penultimate triumph before capturing their last NBA Title. These clubs have met on six previous occasions in the postseason, with San Antonio taking four of them, while splitting their two encounters in the WCF (2012 and 2014). Furthermore, they are 6-4 SU in their last ten meetings (7-3 ATS), including 5-2 SU and ATS this season, taking two of four in Oklahoma City. For those wondering, four of the last five tilts in Southern Texas have gone over the projected total. As for Wembanyama, he averaged 18.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.2 blocks on shooting splits of 52.4/62.5/63.6 despite logging just 25.1 minutes per game. Given their success against the Thunder thus far, the public continues to feel awfully good about the Spurs in tonight’s sequel, as approximately 68% of all wagers placed upon the spread are backing the visitors, with an even greater share of the overall money wagered following suit (73%). On the injury front, keep an eye on the status of (All-Star Point guard) De’Aaron Fox, who missed the first two games with a high ankle sprain, with the 28-year-old averaging 18.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.1 steals in the playoffs thus far. With that said, the more pressing issue is that of the aforementioned Harper, who left Tuesday night’s affair with an apparent leg malady. The rookie sensation played a key role in the opener, totaling 24 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists, and 7 steals. Looking ahead, the Spurs are a commanding 15-13 in all best-of-seven series after being level through two games, going on to win Game Three on seventeen occasions (60.7%).