8:00 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Cavaliers -2.5, Total: 215.5
The Eastern Conference Finals shifts to Northern Ohio where we should get a firm understanding of just how long this series will last, as the surging New York Knicks are gunning for their tenth consecutive victory, while the Cleveland Cavaliers are desperate to protect their home floor in tonight’s Game Three from Rocket Arena. After authoring the franchise’s largest-ever fourth quarter comeback to take Game One in overtime, the Knicks (53-29, 3rd in Eastern Conference) would have no such problems in securing a 2-0 series lead, capturing a 109-93 win at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night. This was New York’s tenth straight postseason victory, extending the longest such streak in their history to boot, reaching the halfway mark of this ECF. This one was a competitive affair throughout the first half, though the hosts put their foot on the gas post-intermission, separating themselves from their adversary via an 18-0 run in the third period. During this particular stretch, (All-Star Guard) Jalen Brunson dove deep into his bag by scoring or assisting on 13 of those points, as his side 56.5% from the field, including 5-of-10 from three (50.0%), with 10 assists in comparison to committing only a single turnover. The 29-year-old finished the game with 19 points and a career-high 14 assists. With that being said, this game will be remembered as the Josh Hart Game, folks, as the 31-year-old influenced both ends of the hardwood throughout the night. After a disappointing opener in which he was forced to the bench, Hart (pictured below) rose to the occasion and tied a personal playoff high with 26 points, a dozen of which came during that aforementioned 18-0 surge. Brunson’s collegiate teammate shot 10-of-21 from the field (47.6%), including 5-of-11 from downtown (45.5%), 4 rebounds, 7 assists, and a pair of steals. Not only was he a factor offensively, but Hart shut down those he was charged with defending; as the primary defender, Hart’s targets were held to 3-of-12 shooting from the field (25.0%). As he has throughout his first season in the Big Apple, (Head Coach) Mike Brown continues to push the right buttons in order to get the most out of this group. From extending the rotation and making better use of his bench, to maintaining many of the defensive principals employed by the previous machine, the 2-time Coach of the Year is proving to be well worth his weight in gold for the Knickerbockers. Furthermore, Brown’s usage of (All-Star Center) Karl-Anthony Towns has been a major reason that the Knicks have won nine consecutive contests, turning the sharpshooting 7-footer into something of a point-center, facilitating the offense from the top of the key and showcasing playmaking skills that were otherwise untapped. In these playoffs, KAT has averaged 17.1 points on 56.8% shooting, including 46.2% from downtown, along with 10.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.3 blocks, all the while posting the highest marks of any player in this postseason in Win Shares (2.5), Win Shares/48 minutes (.333), and Box Plus/Minus (11.6). On the Thursday night, the big fella finished with 18 points on an efficient 7-of-12 shooting (58.3%), including 3-of-5 on treys (60.0%), along with 13 rebounds. During this 9-game winning streak, New York’s attack has really been on a tear, averaging a robust 122.3 points on 53.6% shooting, including 41.0% from three and 61.8% from within the arc, with 27.9 assists in comparison to committing 13.0 turnovers en route to pummeling their opponents by a comfortable margin of 23.5 points, which also happens to be the widest margin for such a streak in NBA playoff history. Lastly, the Knicks are the thirteenth team to win nine straight playoff games, which certainly bodes well for them given all but one of the previous twelve teams have advanced to the NBA Finals, with seven of that number hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
From a betting perspective, the Knicks come into tonight’s sequel at 53-42 against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 5.70 units. This is a team that has been rather streaky throughout the campaign, compiling SIX different streaks of four or more consecutive covers, while also suffering SEVEN different stretches consisting of at least three straight losses ATS. As such, they have been on a quite a run of late, with EIGHT covers in their last nine playoff games, including Saturday’s victory in Game Two (-5.5). New York is 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last ten tilts away from Madsion Square Garden, while logging a 7-3-mark ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Brown’s troops are in the midst of an 8-1 march ATS immediately after scoring 100+ points, while doing the same when facing an adversary owning a win percentage north of .500, with both trends proving relevant tonight. They have also covered four consecutive contests on the road versus an opponent owning a winning record at home. With that being said, this is a group that is just 5-16 ATS over their last twenty-one road ventures when facing a foe with a home win percentage north of .600, while covering just two of their last eight games in the ECF. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-seventh appearance in the playoffs, posting an 8-9 series record in the Eastern Conference Finals, with their most recent appearance coming in last May’s defeat at the hands of Indiana. As we covered earlier, the Knickerbockers have crossed paths with the Cavaliers on four prior occasions, winning each of them, including a 4-1 triumph in the first round of the 2023 Playoffs. As for more recent history, New York won two of their three meetings from the regular season, though their two victories were close affairs that were decided by a combined 10 points. Hell, if you bring that aforementioned loss in Northern Ohio to the table, and Brown & Co were actually outscored over the season series. On the whole, they struggled defensively in shipping 47.1% shooting from the field and 40.9% from three, though made up for it by earning a small advantage from the charity stripe (+3.0), while owning the glass along the way (+4.3). Furthermore, the Knicks are just 4-6 ATS over their last ten affairs with Cleveland, with a 5-5 ledger ATS in Northern Ohio. On the injury front, keep an eye on Thursday night’s hero, as Hart left that affair prematurely with a reported ankle malady. Looking ahead, the Knicks are 14-2 in all best-of-seven series in which they have raced out to a 2-0 lead, going on to win Game Three on just four occasions (25.0%).
Meanwhile, falling victim to a rally can have very damaging effects in the playoffs, which is something that the Cavaliers (52-30, 4th in Eastern Conference) can attest to firsthand, as they once again find themselves staring down the barrel of a potential 0-3 deficit. Indeed, Cleveland amassed a 93-71 advantage early in the fourth quarter of Tuesday night’s opener, only to succumb to one of the most memorable comebacks in recent memory, as they were outscored 44-11 the rest of the way, including 14-3 in overtime. This was a team that had finally found a way to win on the road in these playoffs, closing out the Pistons in back-to-back tilts in the Motor City after losing their first five such ventures. While simply splitting in the Big Apple would have been a major confidence boost for these Cavs, it simply did not come to pass, as Game Two shed some further light into their collective psyche. As we covered earlier, this was a relatively close game throughout the first half, as the visitors trailed 53-49 at intermission, only to capitulate in the third quarter with the hosts ripping off an 18-0 run. During this period, (Head Coach) Kenny Atkinson’s troops were outscored 32-21, despite (All-Star Guard) Donovan Mitchell doing his best to keep them in it, scoring 11 of his team-best 26 points. When it was all said and done, it was nothing short of a dour offensive performance from the Cavaliers, who shot 38.8% overall, including 9-of-35 from beyond the arc (25.7%), with only 15 assists along the way. Furthermore, they were -12 from downtown, -18 in the paint, and -5 in transition, allowing New York plenty of space for fluid ball movement, yielding 32 assists on the night. In fact, if it weren’t for a commanding edge from the charity stripe (+14), the final score would have looked a lot uglier than it would have appeared. Mitchell, a NY native, shot 8-of-18 from the field (44.4%), with much of his production from the stripe (8-of-9 FT), along with 4 rebounds, an assist, and a block, while his backcourt mate, (former MVP) James Harden logged yet another middling performance. Simply put, this is NOT what the franchise was looking for when they mortgaged their future and acquired the 3-time scoring champion at the trade deadline. Even with lengthy CV of disappearing come playoff time, every team that managed to add his talents (of which there have been many over the past few years) has improved greatly on the offensive end of the court. The 36-year-old is no longer that kind of force, lacking the burst to get by defenders as he did in the past, which has led to a harrowing SEVENTY-THREE turnovers in this playoff run alone. In fact, he has logged more turnovers (44) than field goals (42) in Cleveland’s eight postseason defeats, while continuing to be a liability on defense where they Knicks have mercilessly hunted him thus far. Granted, he didn’t turn the ball over once in Game Two, though was otherwise rendered ineffective with just 6 points in the second half on 2-of-7 shooting (28.6%).
From a betting perspective, the Cavaliers own the distinction of being the least-rewarding team left in this postseason field, logging a miserable 40-58 ledger against the spread, resulting in a harrowing loss of 22.0 units. That is a 20-game difference in comparison to their straight-up record, which is largely due to the wide public perception that they would run away with the East this season. Building upon that is the fact that they are just 16-27 over their past forty-two games dating back to the regular season. Atkinson’s troops may have been lousy on the road in these playoffs, but they have been much better at home (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS), while splitting their ten tilts as a favorite. Furthermore, Cleveland has generally relished performing on Saturdays, each of their last five games played on this particular day of the week. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their twenty-sixth appearance in the postseason, owning a 5-3 series record in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, there is some not-so-subtle context here, folks, for the vast majority of the Cavs’ success at this stage of the tournament is attributed to their time led by (4-time MVP) LeBron James. Indeed, with LeBron in a Cleveland uniform, they are 5-1 in the ECF, meaning that they are 0-2 in such series without the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. In fact, they haven’t even reached this penultimate round without him since 1992 when they were eliminated by Michael Jordan’s Bulls (4-2). As for this matchup with the Knicks, they have NEVER beaten New York in the playoffs (0-4), with the most recent affair coming three years ago in the first round, which ended in a gentleman’s sweep. With that being said, the Cavs are 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS over their past ten encounters with the Knickerbockers, splitting their last ten ATS at Rocket Arena, while the Under is on a 7-1 run in The Land. Getting back to Mitchell, the New York native showed out against them during the regular season, averaging 29.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 3.0 steals despite struggling from the field (42.6%) and three (30.8%). As for Harden, the bearded one faced New York twice this season, logging 21.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists on shooting splits of .400/.571/1.000. As expected, the public is now longer backing the Cavs, even in this return home, as approximately 47% of all wagers placed upon the spread, with an equivalent share of the overall money wagered thus far following suit. On the injury front, Atkinson & Co are likely to be without (Backup Forward) Larry Nance Jr, who has been dealing with an illness and is thus listed as questionable for tonight’s sequel, though it should be noted that the 33-year-old hasn’t featured since April 23rd against Toronto. Looking ahead, The Cavaliers are 4-7 in all best-of-seven series in which they have fallen into an 0-2 hole, going on to take Game Three on eight occasions (72.7%)