8:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Knicks -2.5, Total: 217.5
One team will attempt to punch their ticket to their first NBA Finals appearance since the turn of the century, while another simply looks to begin the long road towards salvation, as the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers clash once more in this potential finale of the Eastern Conference Finals from Rocket Arena in Northern Ohio. Riding the wave of TEN consecutive playoff victories, the Knicks (53-29, 3rd in Eastern Conference) are on the verge of reaching their first NBA Finals since 1999, all the while playing arguably the finest basketball that the Big Apple has seen since the golden years headlined by Walt Frazier, Earl Monroe, and Willis Reed. Indeed, during this current run New York has been nothing short of DOMINANT, outscoring their opposition by a grand total of 225 points, which equates to an average margin of 22.5 points, which stands as the widest gulf of any of the five postseason streaks that have reached this point. The Knickerbockers have averaged a robust 122.2 points on 53.8% shooting from the field, including 40.9% from beyond the arc, while owning a +8.9 edge on the glass, dishing out 27.8 assists, and committing just 13.2 turnovers. Simply put, this is a team that is peaking at the absolutely right time, as (Head Coach) Mike Brown openly stated in Saturday night’s post-game press conference following a 121-108 victory on the road. So, why don’t we take a moment to reflect on how they all got here, shall we? After meeting defeat in last year’s ECF, the franchise made the unpopular decision of firing (former HC) Tom Thibodeau, eventually replacing him with Brown, with hopes that the 56-year-old could make the necessary tweaks to get more out of an already formidable roster. The 2-time Coach of the Year has proven up to the task, extending the rotation in an attempt to keep his starters fresh, while implementing a more diverse, motion-like scheme on the offensive end designed to maximize multiple players, not just his stars. Case in point: (All-Stars) Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns have both been very good players during their time in New York, though have previously carried some fairly sizable defensive flaws that were previously exploited in the playoffs. Give (Lead Executive) Leon Rose and his staff plenty of credit for building a strong defensive group around them, with lengthy wings such as Mikal Bridges, O.G. Anunoby, and Josh Hart all capable of defending a multitude of positions without sacrificing much of anything on the offensive end of the hardwood. Anunoby returned from a concerning hamstring strain to play a leading role in their epic fourth quarter rally in Game One, scoring 9 of his 13 points in overtime. Hart, after being taken out of the starting lineup for being an offensive non-factor, responded with a career-high 26 points in Game Two. As for Bridges, you would be hard-pressed to find a more impressive run of his career, with the Villanova product shooting a blistering 71.1% from the field and 50.0% from three in this series. Together, these three combined for 55 points on 22-of-37 shooting (59.4%) in Game Three, along with 22 rebounds, 11 assists, 7 steals, and a pair of blocks. And then there is Towns, who has experienced the biggest glow-up of them all. Brown has turned the sharpshooting 7-footer into something of a point-center, facilitating the offense from the top of the key and showcasing playmaking skills that were otherwise untapped. The former No. One Overall Pick has never looked better than he has in these playoffs, averaging 16.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.3 blocks with efficient shooting splits of .559/.452/.891, while ranking tops in the NBA in win shares (2.8), win shares per 48 minutes (.333), box plus/minus (11.5), and defensive box plus/minus (6.1).
From a betting perspective, the Knicks come into tonight’s sequel at 54-42 against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 6.60 units. This is a team that has been rather streaky throughout the campaign, compiling SIX different streaks of four or more consecutive covers, while also suffering SEVEN different stretches consisting of at least three straight losses ATS. As such, they have been on a quite a run of late, with NINE covers in their last ten playoff games, including Saturday’s victory in Game Three (+2.5). New York is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last ten tilts away from Madsion Square Garden, while logging a 7-3-mark ATS when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Brown’s troops are in the midst of a 9-1 march ATS immediately after scoring 100+ points, while doing the same when facing an adversary owning a win percentage north of .500, with both trends proving relevant tonight. They have also covered five consecutive contests on the road versus an opponent owning a winning record at home. With that being said, this is a group that is just 6-16 ATS over their last twenty-two road ventures when facing a foe with a home win percentage north of .600, while covering just two of their last eight games in the ECF. For what it is worth, they are also in the midst of a 2-5 malaise ATS when playing on Monday night. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their forty-seventh appearance in the playoffs, posting an 8-9 series record in the Eastern Conference Finals, with their most recent appearance coming in last May’s defeat at the hands of Indiana. As we covered earlier, the Knickerbockers have crossed paths with the Cavaliers on four prior occasions, winning each of them, including a 4-1 triumph in the first round of the 2023 Playoffs. As for more recent history, New York won two of their three meetings from the regular season, though their two victories were close affairs that were decided by a combined 10 points. Hell, if you bring that aforementioned loss in Northern Ohio to the table, and Brown & Co were actually outscored over the season series, though as we have seen thus far, this ECF has proven to be a very different matter altogether. Furthermore, the Knicks are just 5-5 ATS over their last ten affairs with Cleveland, with a 6-4 ledger ATS in Northern Ohio. On the injury front, Brown has a relatively healthy unit at his disposal, with no significant absences to be expected. Looking ahead, the Knicks are a perfect 5-0 in all best-of-seven series in which they have raced out to a 3-0 lead, going on to complete the sweep on three occasions (60.0%).
Meanwhile, staring at a potentially seismic offseason of change are the Cavaliers (52-30, 4th in Eastern Conference), who appear to have run out of gas and thrown in the proverbial towel. After going the distance in each of their first two playoff series, Cleveland finds themselves running on fumes as they attempt to do what no other team in NBA history has ever done before them: win a series after falling into a 3-0 hole. That’s right, folks, 163 teams have been in this position and NONE of them have successfully navigated their way out of it, with only FOUR of them managing to push the series to a decisive seventh game. Of course, the Cavs have nobody to blame but themselves for this predicament, particularly after they authored one of the greatest choke jobs in recent memory in Game One’s 115-104 overtime defeat. Despite playing on only one day of rest, (Head Coach) Kenny Atkinson’s troops stormed Madison Square Garaden and were easily the better side for just over three quarters of play, leading 93-71 early in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, they were outscored 44-11 the rest of the way, including 14-3 in OT, which served as a major blow to their psyche that they simply haven’t managed to come back from. In Saturday’s 121-108 defeat in Northern Ohio, the hosts shot 50.0% from the field, won the battle in the paint (46-42), and handled their own on the glass (-3), though authored very little resistance defensively, allowing the visitors to continue their sublime shooting (55.8%). Furthermore, they were -12 from the charity stripe, -13 in fast break points, and shot just 12-of-41 from beyond the arc (29.3%) despite owning a narrow +3 edge in treys. The All-Star Backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and James Harden have yet to live up to their reputation in this series, with both struggling from the perimeter (14-of-54 3FG) and on the defensive end, while failing to take care of the basketball (22 turnovers). This has been a calamitous trend for the latter, who has coughed up the rock 79 times in these playoffs, logging exactly as many turnovers (50) as he has field goals in their nine defeats. Atkinson and (General Manager) Koby Altman mortgaged their future in acquiring the 3-time scoring champion at the Trade Deadline, hoping that he would provide a necessary boost to a backcourt that relied far too heavily on Mitchell to carry them. However, it has been made painfully clear that the 36-year-old is no longer that kind of force, lacking the burst to get by defenders as he did in the past, while continuing to be a liability on defense where they Knicks have mercilessly hunted him thus far. And this of course brings us to the Cavaliers immediate future. Mitchell has one year left on his current deal with a player option to follow and has long been a rumored flight risk, while Harden will enter free agency in search of one last hefty payday. If we were in Altman’s shoes, we would have serious reservations of committing any serious long-term money to either player, as this team is strapped for assets and staring down the barrel of the league’s punitive luxury tax. With that in mind, would (Owner) Dan Gilbert openly embrace a full-scale rebuild? Sure, Atkinson has raised the floor and made them a better offensive group, but let’s not pretend like he hasn’t been outcoached on a multitude of occasions during not just this playoff run, but last year’s as well. Is Altman safe after shipping away most of the club’s draft capital in trades to acquire Mitchell and Harden? Mitchell has proven that he shouldn’t be the #1 option on a true contender, but who could they legitimately bring in to partner with him? Giannis Antetokounmpo? That would almost assuredly cost them their lone young asset, (former Defensive Player of the Year) Evan Mobley. What we’re trying to say is that Cleveland remarkably needs more reinforcements despite not having many avenues to get better, which figures to make for a fascinating summer in Northern Ohio, whether it officially begins after tonight’s game or sometime later in the week.
From a betting perspective, the Cavaliers own the distinction of being the least-rewarding team left in this postseason field, logging a miserable 40-59 ledger against the spread, resulting in a harrowing loss of 23.0 units. That is a 20-game difference in comparison to their straight-up record, which is largely due to the wide public perception that they would run away with the East this season. Building upon that is the fact that they are just 16-28 over their past forty-three games dating back to the regular season. Atkinson’s troops may have been close to a sure bet at home through their first seven tilts (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS), but they have now failed to win or cover either of their past two contests at Rocket Arena. Furthermore, Cleveland is just 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS in their last ten games as an underdog, which is where they find themselves tonight. All-time, this is a franchise that is making their twenty-sixth appearance in the postseason, owning a 5-3 series record in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, there is some not-so-subtle context here, folks, for the vast majority of the Cavs’ success at this stage of the tournament is attributed to their time led by (4-time MVP) LeBron James. Indeed, with LeBron in a Cleveland uniform, they are 5-1 in the ECF, meaning that they are 0-2 in such series without the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. In fact, they haven’t even reached this penultimate round without him since 1992 when they were eliminated by Michael Jordan’s Bulls (4-2). As for this matchup with the Knicks, they have NEVER beaten New York in the playoffs (0-4), with the most recent affair coming three years ago in the first round, which ended in a gentleman’s sweep. With that being said, the Cavs are 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS over their past ten encounters with the Knickerbockers, going 4-6 ATS their last ten at Rocket Arena, while the Under is on a 7-2 run in The Land. Getting back to Mitchell, the New York native showed out against them during the regular season, averaging 29.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 3.0 steals despite struggling from the field (42.6%) and three (30.8%). As for Harden, the bearded one faced New York twice this season, logging 21.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists on shooting splits of .400/.571/1.000. As expected, the public is now longer backing the Cavs, even in this return home, as approximately 47% of all wagers placed upon the spread, with an equivalent share of the overall money wagered thus far following suit. On the injury front, Atkinson & Co are likely to be without (Backup Forward) Larry Nance Jr, who has been dealing with an illness and is thus listed as questionable for tonight’s sequel, though it should be noted that the 33-year-old hasn’t featured since April 23rd against Toronto. Looking ahead, like the rest of the NBA, the Cavaliers have NEVER rallied back to win a best-of-seven series in which they have fallen into an 0-3 hole (0-4), forcing a Game Five on only one occasion (25.0%).